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[MiniPhalla] Antarctic Research Station - GAME OVER - FLAWLESS MAFIA VICTORY

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Posts

  • AriviaArivia Registered User
    edited October 2009
    Spectrum wrote: »
    Vote closed.

    hey

    i needed that extra minute

    huntresssig.jpg
  • Orange SodaOrange Soda Registered User
    edited October 2009
    Hey that isn't 10 oclock

    Spoiler:
  • SpectrumSpectrum Super High-School Level ??? Hope's Peak AcademyRegistered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Oh, it was like 10 seconds early. =p

    Fine, vote closed NOW.

  • B:LB:L Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    hay guys did someone kill orange soda

    10mvrci.png click for Anime chat
  • Orange SodaOrange Soda Registered User
    edited October 2009
    I killed Orange Soda tonight. That guy is suspicious.

    Spoiler:
  • AriviaArivia Registered User
    edited October 2009
    Spectrum wrote: »
    Oh, it was like 10 seconds early. =p

    Fine, vote closed NOW.

    but but my stratagems

    gimme the picard maneuver back

    huntresssig.jpg
  • DarianDarian Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    It is now.

    Also, hopefully I didn't make a fatal error with my choice of kills, tonight.
    Spoiler:

  • Dac VinDac Vin Reimu Hakurei sat in her shrine because she was on the internet. Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    It was nice knowing y'all.

    camo_sig.png
  • DarianDarian Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Dac Vin wrote: »
    It was nice knowing y'all.

    Wait, what?

  • FunkyWaltDoggFunkyWaltDogg Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Dac Vin wrote: »
    It was nice knowing y'all.

    Are you going somewhere?

    Burnage wrote:
    FWD is very good at this game.
  • dunedainjedidunedainjedi Registered User
    edited October 2009
    No!!!!1 Dac vin! NOOOOOOOOO.

  • AriviaArivia Registered User
    edited October 2009
    Dac Vin wrote: »
    It was nice knowing y'all.

    poor signal muffet
    she sat on a box of c4
    and now she'll rain down
    ashes, forevermore

    huntresssig.jpg
  • SpectrumSpectrum Super High-School Level ??? Hope's Peak AcademyRegistered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Day 3

    As the cold penetrated the minds of the researchers, slowly, inevitably, they all became increasingly insane. Some would blabber to themselves, aimlessly, while still others would get into arguments over trivial matters. One researcher claimed to find a pattern in pi. And yet the cold was unrelenting.

    It was this situation that Erik Prince found himself in the center of. As a member of the Board of Directors, he had paid a visit to Research Station after Ashford had sent word that he had a new discovery, something to justify his large budget.

    After the incident, he had tried to keep a low profile. He cared not for the struggles of these petty scientists, only for his own escape. Unfortunately, with the increasing irrationality of the researchers, it was this low profile that made him even the more suspicious.

    "Unhand me! Do you know who I am? I'm one of the founders of this damn company! I make more in a week than the rest of you combined do in a year! Guards! Guards!"

    The guards were nowhere in sight. And soon, neither was garroad_ran, the Executive.


    By his own admission, the researcher was a quiet sort. He usually kept to himself, did his work, just enough to get by, and followed his own hobbies. For whatever reason, the lockdown was enough to break his shell. He was out, talking with his fellow researchers, having a great time. Surprisingly, he was a skilled conversationalist, witty, urbane, knowledgeable on a variety of subjects. If one didn't know any better, one might think he was an entirely different person.

    As the loud *KA-CLICK* informed Fatal3RR0R outside his room, someone indeed didn't know any better.


    Love. A curious emotion. The researcher shuffled down the hallways, seemingly aimlessly, pondering this. They say the other side of love was hate. No, from the sobs coming from the door he stopped in front of, he knew it was grief.

    Inside, Dunadan019 wept. His newfound love, snatched so cruelly from him. She had healed him, filled a hole he didn't know he had. Previously, a bitter and caustic being, who had nary a kind word for any, his experiences with her had mellowed him considerably. Without her, it remained to be seen what would happen to him, which of the many paths available he would choose.

    As he was about to walk on, the researcher outside felt a twinge. Grief was still an emotion. Something unneeded. He would be thanked. Should be, at least. The researcher looked around to make sure no one was watching, then doubled over. A quiet retching noise, then a dagger shaped icicle was in his hand.

    When the door to his room burst open, it's unknown whether Dunadan019 welcomed it as his attacker intended.


    James Todd Smith paced the hallways, on his appointed rounds. He kept to himself, talking little. A brief nod there, a pat on the back. Researchers employed by a MNC weren't the usual crew he hung out with. He missed his crew back in Los Angeles. If he had his way, he'd be back there right now.

    Ebfan shivered. The cold didn't agree with him. Even with all of his training and experience, nothing prepared the Deputy Chief of Security for this kind of unnatural chill.


    The Dead:
    Dunadan019 - Researcher - Icicle'd
    Ebfan - James Todd Smith, Deputy Chief of Security - Frozen
    Fatal3RR0R - Researcher - BOOM, HEADSHOT
    garroad_ran - Erik Prince, Executive - Mob Rule


    Day 3 ends Sunday, 10PM EST.

  • AriviaArivia Registered User
    edited October 2009
    Well, we caught something yellow. Doesn't work for a wedding gown, though.

    huntresssig.jpg
  • DarianDarian Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Seriously, our guard was effectively inactive? Grudged.

    If we do have any specials left, let me know what you've got.

  • NocturneNocturne Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Spectrum wrote: »
    Inside, Dunadan019 wept. His newfound love, snatched so cruelly from him. She had healed him, filled a hole he didn't know he had.

    :winky:

  • psolmspsolms Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    look guys, i can insert narration!

  • B:LB:L Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Arivia wrote: »
    Well, we caught something yellow. Doesn't work for a wedding gown, though.

    What.

    He was the guy in the business suit. Likely a survival based neutral, given that he's a founder of our company, but you have to wonder what his powers were. Still doesn't seem like something to celebrate, Arivia.

    10mvrci.png click for Anime chat
  • FunkyWaltDoggFunkyWaltDogg Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    B:L wrote: »
    Arivia wrote: »
    Well, we caught something yellow. Doesn't work for a wedding gown, though.

    What.

    He was the guy in the business suit. Likely a survival based neutral, given that he's a founder of our company, but you have to wonder what his powers were. Still doesn't seem like something to celebrate, Arivia.

    I dunno, in general a dead neutral would be considered a good neutral.

    Burnage wrote:
    FWD is very good at this game.
  • AriviaArivia Registered User
    edited October 2009
    B:L wrote: »
    Arivia wrote: »
    Well, we caught something yellow. Doesn't work for a wedding gown, though.

    What.

    He was the guy in the business suit. Likely a survival based neutral, given that he's a founder of our company, but you have to wonder what his powers were. Still doesn't seem like something to celebrate, Arivia.

    You're reading celebration into that. I was just joking around the something old / something new / something blue / something borrowed chestnut.

    huntresssig.jpg
  • garroad_rangarroad_ran Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    ooooOOOooOOOo

    Sweet, my very first voting-off death ever! And to anyone who was actually expecting me to defend myself, way to read where I said I had to work 14 hours today and wasn't gonna be around.

    ooOOoooOoo

  • Fatal3RR0RFatal3RR0R Registered User
    edited October 2009
    ooooOOOooOOOo

    There goes my chance to be even more chatty and get on os's nerves.

    ooooOOOooOOOo

    peachip4sig.png
  • Orange SodaOrange Soda Registered User
    edited October 2009
    B:L wrote: »
    Arivia wrote: »
    Well, we caught something yellow. Doesn't work for a wedding gown, though.

    What.

    He was the guy in the business suit. Likely a survival based neutral, given that he's a founder of our company, but you have to wonder what his powers were. Still doesn't seem like something to celebrate, Arivia.

    I dunno, in general a dead neutral would be considered a good neutral.

    Terrible. No wonder they always try to mafia align. I really hate the village anti-neutral bias there is.

    Spoiler:
  • B:LB:L Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    B:L wrote: »
    Arivia wrote: »
    Well, we caught something yellow. Doesn't work for a wedding gown, though.

    What.

    He was the guy in the business suit. Likely a survival based neutral, given that he's a founder of our company, but you have to wonder what his powers were. Still doesn't seem like something to celebrate, Arivia.

    I dunno, in general a dead neutral would be considered a good neutral.

    Terrible. No wonder they always try to mafia align. I really hate the village anti-neutral bias there is.

    Bad game theory alert.

    Going on a neutral witch hunt is bad.

    Letting an unconfirmed neutral live is even worse. Either verify them in some way or use them up and toss them away.

    After all, we don't want another KIME incident, right OS?

    10mvrci.png click for Anime chat
  • Orange SodaOrange Soda Registered User
    edited October 2009
    W/e there was no way I could have known there were that many pinks left when Wiki lied to me about who was evil.

    Wiki told me all the yellows were evil

    Everyone in the thread who knew about the source lead me to believe yellow was evil

    Spectrum knew that yellow was neutral and expected us to know, even though he was using non-standard colors for a number of factions and villager specials.

    I would do it all over again given the information I knew at the time.

    Since that game however, I have tried to make sure if there is source knowledge about the game, I make damn sure I know what is relevent and not.

    Also B:L for bring up game theory again. Why arn't you dead yet?

    Spoiler:
  • DarianDarian Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Also B:L for bring up game theory again. Why arn't you dead yet?

    Because you don't have a kill? Or because your mafia kill is restricted to the lowest posters and B:L hasn't been eligible?

    Seriously, though, it's day 3. Are you two still just grudging each other?

  • Orange SodaOrange Soda Registered User
    edited October 2009
    It isn't a grudge. He is being suspicious!

    Spoiler:
  • HounHoun Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    ...
    ...
    ... at least fewer people died from the cold tonight? Ugh.

    !Kuhlmeye, you got some e'splainin' to do. Lame "reveal" to move the vote off you, then no word of your powers, or how you used them, in order to prove yourself. Now that we have a confirmed neutral down, you're looking very mafia at the moment.

    Steam: DigitalArcanist | PSN: DigitalArcanist | NNID: DigitalArcanist | Backloggery: Houn
  • vagrant_windsvagrant_winds is pumped-up. Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    !Kuhlmeye

    Same reason as yesterday.

    // FF14: Phyress Traydor, Spoony Bard @ Sargatanas //
    // PSN: vagrant_winds // 3DS: 4682-8868-5037 //
    // WiiU: VagrantWinds // Steam & LoL: VWinds //
  • KayKay What we need... Is a little bit of PANIC.Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Busy busy day ahead of me, as is usual on the weekend.

    Oh look, B:L and Orange Soda are still alive. Maybe we should take them both out with the vote and the vig, and see what happens.

    There are fourteen people left. If we really have five 'evils' around (remember kids, five small creatures in the ice), that's over 33% of the people we have left. The way I see it, the chances are as follows.

    Both not mafia:
    9/14 * 8/13 = 40%

    One or the other are mafia:
    9/14 * 5/13 = 25%
    5/14 * 9/13 = 25%

    Both are mafia:
    5/14 * 4/13 = 10%

    Now, if both were mafia, they'd both still be alive. I feel that if one or the other were mafia, they would also still be alive. They wouldn't want to 'tip their hand' by mafia-killing the other. If NEITHER of them were mafia, someone WOULD kill one or the other, because their grudge is so well known that it's the immediate conclusion that they'd jump to. Plus, the chance that one, the other or both are Mafia is a touch under 60%, and the chance that neither are Mafia is 40%. Make of that what you will, people. It's not Lady Eri analysis, but it's a little bit about grudges and probability. I also think the math is right. I think.

    Then again, there's a chance that I'm mafia, and neither of them are.
    5/14 * 9/13 * 8/12 = 16%

    So, uh. Pretty sure all that probability stuff is correct.

    Edit: And now that I've had it checked over, I'm sure it's even more correct!

    ew9y0DD.png
    3DS FCode: 1993-7512-8991
  • Orange SodaOrange Soda Registered User
    edited October 2009
    Except for the last two times B:L had a kill he tried to kill me day 1. He doesn't care.

    I think the fact that I am still alive means he is trying really hard NOT to kill me to make me look suspicious or he doesn't have a kill.

    BTW, your "math" could apply to any two people. I find that really suspicious that you single me and B:L out just cause we want each other to die asap, but we are both alive.

    I already thought I was going to die once when I thought B:L called a kill on me. I already told darian that I am a villager.

    Why are you bringing up all this math reasoning before we hear from kuhl? Has Darian vouched for him yet? Keep in mind, he revealed as a janitor. Come on! That isn't even remotely believable. And if you were the guard why would you EVER reveal instead of convince people in PM to change their vote.

    I'm changing my vote to Kay for trying to use pseudo-math to create suspicious.

    Remember, that math could apply to the chances of any two people being mafia or not. You could have made that argument about anyone alive. Therefore your reasoning is completely flawed.

    As long as B:L dies tonight, and Darian believes that Kuhl is on our side, I am okay with kay dying to the vote.

    Spoiler:
  • KayKay What we need... Is a little bit of PANIC.Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    BTW, your "math" could apply to any two people. I find that really suspicious that you single me and B:L out just cause we want each other to die asap, but we are both alive.

    It could. It's just interesting in the current scheme of things because you are both alive. The most likely set of events that leaves both you and B:L alive right now, is that one or both of you are evil. I don't see anyone else throwing any suspicions around, so..!
    I'm changing my vote to Kay for trying to use pseudo-math to create suspicious.

    'to create suspicious'? That doesn't make sense! Also, it's real, actual math. Unlike your pseudo-spelling.

    Besides, I want to hear what B:L has to say about this situation. His reaction might be interesting.

    ew9y0DD.png
    3DS FCode: 1993-7512-8991
  • Orange SodaOrange Soda Registered User
    edited October 2009
    Wait are you really attacking my spelling rather than refuting the fact that all you did was say the percentage of mafia left according to a narration that hinted at there being 5.

    Why were there so many kills on the first day and not a lot last night?

    Maybe that has something to do with kuhl. The point is something changed and I haven't seen anyone explain what changed to reduce the kills by about 4.

    But still you are terrible for just spouting random statistics and hoping someone else starts a vote from that. Your numbers mean nothing. It was like when I took the digits of pi and said that that gave meaningful results (but at least I was kidding).

    Your kind of post is EXACTLY what the mafia uses on days when a clear bandwagon for the day has not been started. You would like nothing better than to sew confusion with your ridiculous math.

    And you have the audacity to attack my SPELLING? Instead of retracting the ridiculous statement you made that stating the percentage of mafia you believe to be alive as a reason why myself is evil over anyone else? That is just fucking retarded and BAD.

    I see no reason for you to make that kind of post without being mafia and trying to distract the village.

    Spoiler:
  • DarianDarian Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    It's an interesting theory, and I don't have any information that would confirm or deny it. The math looks fine for what it is worth (but it really isn't worth much; as OS points out, the same numbers apply to any two people picked at random). Except that I'm confirmed good, so really you should be running the numbers for the other 13 people, not all 14.

    Also, I still haven't heard just what our "janitor" has been up to.

  • KayKay What we need... Is a little bit of PANIC.Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Oh, OS. You are, as usual, missing the point.

    The numbers on their own could apply to anyone, this is true. The reason that they're interesting, is the fact that both you and B:L are still alive. Now, there are arguments for any real combination of evil/not-evil in there, and I just pointed out the percentages of each one - the least likely event is that you're both innocent, hence, killing both OS and B:L has a higher chance of hitting a mafia member given the fact that you're both still alive, than hitting two innocents.

    Like I said, this is only interesting because the pair of them are still alive. As stated previously:

    a) Both could be innocent and have no access to kills.

    b) One or the other is evil, and they're not killing the other because lolgrudge is obvious.

    c) Both are evil, and thus cannot kill each other.

    Probability of a = 40%, probabilty of B+C = 60%. Ergo, one or both of them being mafia is much more likely than neither. The fact that this math applies to any two 'couples' isn't the point here - it's the fact that both of them are still alive, and the three possibilities add up one or both of them being mafia as more likely than neither.

    Also, fixating on my jibe at your spelling is interesting. It's trying to pull attention away from the math.

    ew9y0DD.png
    3DS FCode: 1993-7512-8991
  • Orange SodaOrange Soda Registered User
    edited October 2009
  • DarianDarian Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    I don't suppose anyone has post counts from yesterday? While I know ebfan was at the bottom of the activity lists, I'm less certain where Dunadan019 fell; he has a lot of posts overall, but I don't recall him being particularly active during the day yesterday.

    Although if the mafia just gets to freeze out the bottom posters (no kill control), then they almost have to have some other sort of ability that is happening behind the scenes.

    Still, if it is possible for me to protect myself by posting lots, I'll see what I can manage to do.

  • KayKay What we need... Is a little bit of PANIC.Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Cute, rather than refuting my theory with some cunning explanation of why you're not evil, you're posting image macros!

    I know where my vote is going, !Orange Soda. I honestly don't expect this vote to take hold, either. But y'know, if you end up voting me out, and you realise I'm just another researcher, maybe, just maybe you'll test my theory out. And if you don't and they're both evil, then I shall laugh soundly at you for being terrible.

    Of course, if you do vote one out, the vig kills the other, and they're both innocent? Well, I don't have a problem for being voted out for wasting your time, 'cause I'm obviously evil in that situation, right?

    ew9y0DD.png
    3DS FCode: 1993-7512-8991
  • DarianDarian Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Hmm... upon further review, Dunadan019 was hit by the SK (or is this just the mafia?) kill, shanked with an icicle. So never mind about checking that. Might still be nice to know who had the fewest posts and still survived the day, though.

    I do think everyone should make sure to post a good bit; we went from 4 hypothermia deaths down to just 1 last night. Let's keep those kills low, if they are post-count related.

    Quick death summary:
    • Never in this game: Infidel
    • My kills: Dogbone33, Fatal3RR0R
    • Shanked: lonelyahava, Dunadan019
    • Got too cold: Gumpy, Kistra, Robos a Go Go, simonwolf, ebfan
    • Voted out: Zandracon, garroad_ran

    garroad_ran having some cold-resistance due to being rich/well equipped (allowing him to survive the day one freezer) makes at least some sense.

  • Orange SodaOrange Soda Registered User
    edited October 2009
    But I did refute what you said. In your first post you said your pseudo-argument, and I pointed out why your numbers were stupid.

    Then you attacked my spelling to refute me pointing out your numbers were bad.

    I point out that you are straw manning me with the spelling thing and point back to the numbers again.

    You ignore it again and repost the same numbers and justify they AGAIN with the same flawed logic.

    The only thing left to do was facepalm. twice

    I really hope I am not the only one that is seeing what your are doing.

    Also nice job with the obvious vote. When your plan didn't catch on and I called you out on it, the only way you could redeem yourself is with your "well if OS and B:L are both village, I don't mind dying" That is stupid. You picked 2 random people out of a hat, drew a connection to them and then said "well if im wrong you can just kill me later"

    We don't have the luxury of that kinda of time. If Kuhl is lying and can't guard then he is more or less mafia hiding in the open and Darian has zero protection tonight and will die.

    How do you expect that we will get 5 people (assuming there are 5) kill using only the vote? Come on....

    Also back to your RIDICULOUS arguments (and I know you will just ignore what I am about to say), but your "analysis" is based on several flawed logical leaps.

    that if we had a kill we would have used it on the other by now - assumes that either of us play with a predictable play style. All I know is the last two times B:L had kills - he tried to kill me day 1. I assume that the next time he gets a kill he will NOT use it on me or else it forms a pattern.
    -I do have a kill, it is called the vote. Look back at all my votes in this game. I tried to set aside my grudge and vote out d019 on day 1, but it didn't catch on. When B:L was posting a lot of useles fluff I tried to vote him out. I pm'd Darian and told him my suspicions and tried to vote him out again.
    Your logic doesn't seem to take this into account.

    You also assume that a stupid shot in the dark with possibly our last vig attempt and the vote today is OKAY if we miss. It isn't. We need to hit a mafia today with one or both of them or we LOSE.

    I swear if you try to bring your terrible logic up again, I will try to find a triple face palm picture.

    Spoiler:
This discussion has been closed.