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Consequences of Israeli raid on Turkish fleet
RoyceSraphim
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
http://forums.penny-arcade.com/showpost.php?p=15076880&postcount=1
The op from the last thread.
The concensus has been established that Israel screwed up. There is a disagreement as to whether the people on the ships were wrong. That is for another thread I will make after I make this one. This thread is for the short and long term consequences of the IDF's actions.
GO!
The op from the last thread.
The concensus has been established that Israel screwed up. There is a disagreement as to whether the people on the ships were wrong. That is for another thread I will make after I make this one. This thread is for the short and long term consequences of the IDF's actions.
GO!
RoyceSraphim on
Posts
Honestly, what can come out of this, besides maybe a temporary suspension of further aid fleets?
Turkey doesn't have the balls to retaliate in any meaningful manner. No one does. Not while the US is unconditionally backing Israel on pretty much everything.
Are we going to see the PM get ousted in the next election?
Are several nations really going to recall their ambassadors to israel?
Will the current Egyptian government start taking a larger role in the world stage?
Are we going to see more boats or less try to run the blockade?
Is it feasible for Israel or America to cut ties with one another or is this just hot air?
Edit: I mean for either nation to be the one to break it.
Could modern Israel have been created without pissing everyone off?
http://www.fallout3nexus.com/downloads/file.php?id=16534
Well, there's the short game, and the long game.
Yes, I don't think anything substantial will come out of this in the short term, but in the long term Israel is continuing to distance itself and by proxy the US from the rest of the world. And that is putting more and more stress on the US-Israel relationship.
What amount of stress will the relationship take before it breaks?
I believe the answer is "close to infinite".
There were some reports of Turkey supposedly saying they were going to send more aid boats, but this time they would accompany them with war ships.
I haven't seen those reports verified yet however.
Seems justified if they expect pirates to attack them.
This seems like the route Turkey could take in terms of protest against Israel. The recent actions within and around Somalia's territorial waters lends some credence to the thought of making a claim of piracy against Israel and using the UN laws on piracy to get some compensation. It won't get Israel to concede on anything but it will be something.
http://www.fallout3nexus.com/downloads/file.php?id=16534
That's empty rattling. They accompany them to the blockade, ships go into the blockade area, and then get jacked pronto. All they can do is make a public show of force and then sit and watch.
Except pirates didn't attack them. A military warship can't engage in piracy. And using that term doesn't help the situation.
It would be escorting a protest ship so a military doesn't search and reroute them in international waters. And once they are not in international waters, this whole circus repeats sans paintball guns and with a very pissed off IDF that can justifiably assume they might be savagely attacked by a suicidal protester at any moment. Guess how well that's going to play out? Except this time, it's all going to be legal.
And since you guys all seem to think the IDF is hell bent on killing people just because. Well, imagine what they will do when it is legal, and they have justifiable cause to assume hostile intent. They also probably want to show that their elite unit can board a ship without getting a beat down.
The stakes have really been raised. As have the odds and justification for killing people. It's a horrible situation.
Edit: Either to protect Israel from violating the rules of the sea which grant merchant vessels free passage, or due to Israels act of war against Turkey.
If Turkey wants, they can send a military escort straight through to Gaza.
If they decide to take it that far (which is not clear) the only choice Israel would have left would be to give up on the blockade or start a war with Turkey.
also
This is true but I doubt Turkey will go this far, their comment about sending warships with the next aid flotilla is more political posturing than anything
If they said it, they won't back down on it. What's unclear is if they actually said, since there seems to be only one source for it.
They've already put some economic projects on hold, and while apparently they are still going through with the purchase on some Israeli drone planes, any future deals of that sort are also on hold.
Turkey is not just going to ignore this.
Also, saw this on another forum:
I guess the nature of these things never really changes.
Yeah, all I've been able to find for a reference for the warship escorting quote is "Ankara" which is vague but I don't doubt that Turkey is riled up over this, but whether it's to the point of breaking a blockade with their own navy is doubtful I'd say
Peter Beinart wrote a great piece on how the Zionist establishment has shifted far right, and is essentially driving young potential zionists away by requiring them to check their liberalism at zionism's door.
Can't seem to find it though.
Turkey can gain even more credibility with the 'Islamic world' if they do escort the next ships. Say what you want about what happened previously, but Israel isn't stupid. They won't start another war when they don't have to.
If faith is just a silent tribute, mine is just a desperate act.
Oh. And, of course, the denial of the fleet's resources to the people that needed them.
Republicans and Democrats alike are pretty apologetic and defensive of Israel I don't think this is going to shake anything up in American politics beyond a bunch of congressman going "what a shame"
Why should they care that Israel executed an American citizen? If they cared, that might cut off the Jewish voting block.
Someone knows absolutely nothing about American politics.
Granted that my pool of American friends is biased, but everyone I know within your country saw the marginally tough stance that Obama & Clinton first had with Israel as the proverbial Great White Hope.
Now that this hope has evaporated, there's basically nothing left to hang some optimism on. Obama has quite plainly betrayed his political base - William Jefferson Clinton did the same thing and got away with it, but Obama doesn't have that flexibility for a variety of reasons.
I'll bet money that this will be Obama's one and only term.
Well, we'll see come 2012.
Israel is a political no-no area because of their massive lobbying power in Washington and the firmly entrenched idea that they're the shining beacon of democracy in the middle east
This is something I'm very interested in from both the US and Israeli perspective. It seems like the US government's response to anything Israel is to either lick the tip or asphyxiate on Israel's schlong. There seems to be a large disconnect in how to resolve conflict in the Middle East between the later generations in both countries and government officials.
Well, in fairness, there's a degree of truth in this. Israel is science friendly, it has relatively egalitarian domestic social policies when compared to Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, etc, and it has a single, centralized, state-controlled military (rather than factional juntas, as is seen in many middle eastern despot states).
That doesn't excuse the blockade, the policy of 'collective punishment', the paranoia or the fundamentalist orthodox symbiosis with the government - but if one were to force me to choose a long-term ally in that region, I'd make the same choice that the United States has.
Nothing will change until the govt of Israel is no longer run by the generation that fondly remembers blowing up half the Middle East
nope the US will block anything from going through the Security Council
we always do
That's why I don't think it will even come to that. Plus they're still a potential candidate for the EU. Turkey skirts the line between 'middle-east' and 'west' they're too valuable of an ally to have to throw away over this.
They can send their ships out to 'ensure peace' or whatever and win points from and for everyone.
If faith is just a silent tribute, mine is just a desperate act.
I'm not sure of how badly they would get crushed, but Turkey would not likely fare well in a conventional military confrontation. Israel's air force is one of the best trained in the world, their intelligence branch is one of the most ruthless & effective, and their military as a whole has pretty regular combat experience.
It's no accident that Israel has remained a major power in the area despite being surrounded by so many hostile countries.
2) 2012 will be decided only domestic policy and the economy and little else.
Somehow I find the notion that a NATO member will attack Israel to be preposterous.