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[Mini] Witch Hunt - Coven eliminated, Village victory

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Posts

  • edited June 2010
    Forgive the oversight in the narration, but FrostMist receives a warning for inactivity due to lack of vote yesterday

  • garroad_rangarroad_ran Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Hmm, I'd say that this sounds more like narration jacking to me than anything else, but there's only one real way to find out. Egos

  • MegatinMegatin Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    I am almost positive that there is more than one person with the ability to make someone appear suspicious in the narration. Sadly, one of them was not smart enough to not randomly use this power on Day 1 to avoid causing a panic in the village. Or they were mafia, trying to cause such a panic. Either way, the fact that egos showed up there is not enough to justify voting for him.

    Of course, it doesn't mean he's not evil, either, and voting for the person claiming to be the village vig doesn't really inspire a lot of confidence. Egos for now, based on that, and the lack of more suspicious targets.

  • REG RyskREG Rysk Lord Rageface Rageington Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    I don't like this one bit. Especially from a player like ebum (the e stands for evil).

    The mechanics shenanigans on day 1 has pissed me off. Our spouses' names were not in our role PMs. I asked the host specifically for mine, and it was provided. I decided to use this to my advantage to try and contact her with no luck. THEN the entire goddamn list shows up and everybody is doing it.

    If Egos were evil, he would be WAITING FOR AT LEAST ONE NARRATION to make sure his name wasn't putting him at goddamn risk. IF YOU SILLY GEESE GET HIM KILLED TONIGHT AND HE IS VILLAGE: MAFIA, THAT'S RIGHT I AM TALKING TO YOU, PLEASE KILL ME SO I CAN GET AWAY FROM THIS PANTS ON HEAD RETARDED BRAIN TRUST.

    Day 2 and I'm already raging. Get your act together village. Capfalcon bulled some BS and ebum is asking for clarifications through a goddamn vote. MAFIA. HELLO?! USE YOUR GODDAMN ORANGE TEXT IF YOU AREN'T SURE.

    Are narrations reliable?

  • edited June 2010
    REG Rysk wrote: »
    Are narrations reliable?

    Clarification denied.

  • garroad_rangarroad_ran Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Well, that worked well.

  • UltaruneUltarune Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    "Out, out, brief candle! Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

  • UltaruneUltarune Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    I agree with people feeling we are voting into the hands of the mafia, its definitely a possibility, but I still think we should.

    Our options are:

    A: Vote for Egos. He could be a mafia who slipped up, or an innocent the mafia used to perform their kill.

    B: We vote for someone else.

    If we go A we either nail an unlucky mafia or confirm the mafia can use villagers as their killers (this is barring deathmillering).

    If we go B we could hit a mafia, a villager, or a good special, and don't learn if the mafia can use villagers to perform their kill.

    As for caps "BS" as it were, the stated effect order puts mafia kills before offensive actions, which backs up his claims, so I'm willing to give him the benfit of the doubt. He will of course call another kill tonight after vote close, which hopefully won't overlap with the mafia, and hopefully the guard has him.

    Also, its just a game. No need to throw a tantrum or plead for death when you disagree with something, just lay out a logical counterargument. Good night.

  • UltaruneUltarune Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Triple post!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game

    The perfect play concept listed there is what I'm talking about.

    "The disadvantage in this example is that this strategy will never exploit non-optimal strategies of the opponent, so the expected outcome of this strategy versus any strategy will always be equal to the minimal expected outcome."

    Playing a game expecting your opponent to make the optimal move everytime is generally a fine strategy, but not looking into an easy check, ie. voting for Egos, for sub-optimal play, could hurt the villages game.

    I've seen plenty of fine players in all manners of game lose to players below their skill level because they assumed their opponents would be making perfect moves, and kept passing up riskier moves that would cause them to emerge victorious because it wasn't the optimal move.

  • MegatinMegatin Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Ultarune wrote: »
    I agree with people feeling we are voting into the hands of the mafia, its definitely a possibility, but I still think we should.

    Our options are:

    A: Vote for Egos. He could be a mafia who slipped up, or an innocent the mafia used to perform their kill.

    B: We vote for someone else.

    If we go A we either nail an unlucky mafia or confirm the mafia can use villagers as their killers (this is barring deathmillering).

    If we go B we could hit a mafia, a villager, or a good special, and don't learn if the mafia can use villagers to perform their kill.

    As for caps "BS" as it were, the stated effect order puts mafia kills before offensive actions, which backs up his claims, so I'm willing to give him the benfit of the doubt. He will of course call another kill tonight after vote close, which hopefully won't overlap with the mafia, and hopefully the guard has him.

    Also, its just a game. No need to throw a tantrum or plead for death when you disagree with something, just lay out a logical counterargument. Good night.


    I really don't understand what you mean by the bolded part above. The narration said nothing about Egos being the killer, just that someone was spreading rumors about seeing him in the area.

  • UltaruneUltarune Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    People have been floating the idea that perhaps the coven can either mind control people and have them do their killing for them, thus casting suspicion on them when they are seen in the narration, or they can spread rumors that the person was responsible for the murder. Choose your fluff, but the crunch of the power is being theorized as covens kill someone and make it look like someone else was responsible in the narration. Also, seen fleeing from the scene, blood on hands, and evil glint in eyes, is a bit more than just being seen in the area.

    Regardless, sleep time is now, hope I am not murdered tonight, this game has been really fun thus far.

  • garroad_rangarroad_ran Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Man, that's a pretty farfetched explanation. I'd say there are three more likely ones:

    a) narration jacking
    b) public seer
    c) Dunadan had a power that would hint at his killer upon death

    Probably narration jacking though.

  • samurai6966samurai6966 Registered User
    edited June 2010
    In Salem, these devil whores were burned in the fire of the Lord and in Ponde Fielde, they shall meet the same fate. Egos of Waffles Kind, there have been tales of you using a metal box to cook meals for Satan and you talking into a strange box. Witness have claimed that you say that you can hear voices through this box. This is surly an act of Witchery if I have ever seen one. For that, you shall be hang from your toes until the birds eat your flesh, and the ants of the field borrow into your body!

    Echo wrote: »
    Yeah, some times I just want to get my farm in shape without being bothered by green explosive dildos.
  • FrostMistFrostMist NorwayRegistered User regular
    edited June 2010
    !enlightenedbum sounds like smart choice *nods*

    Untitled-1.jpg
  • RingoRingo Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    I love counterwagons

    ceres wrote: »
    I'm just going to go ahead and lock this thread before I feel any worse about humanity.
    Edcrab's Exigency RPG now featured at the Exigency Forum
  • EgosEgos God Hand Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Shushnik wrote: »
    It's said that Samuel Backstreet, who lives on the next farm, was seen fleeing from the scene of her grizzly murder. The whispers even speak of blood on his hands and an evil gleam in his eye.


    ....
    Ultarune wrote: »

    I've seen plenty of fine players in all manners of game lose to players below their skill level because they assumed their opponents would be making perfect moves.


    Thanks, btw.

    XBL: Invisible Man PSN: Indrik
  • Rawkking GoodguyRawkking Goodguy Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Except for a select few (including who my vote is currently on :P) people have largely missed the possibility that it's a random name that just shows up in the narration as well. Frankly you'd need to vote out the suspected killer multiple times to prove (and less prove than find some sort of correlation) anything, and if it IS mafia-controlled the village will probably be fucked after three days of such.

  • RingoRingo Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    If the name in the narration provides no mafia, why would we continue to vote for it, Rawk?

    ceres wrote: »
    I'm just going to go ahead and lock this thread before I feel any worse about humanity.
    Edcrab's Exigency RPG now featured at the Exigency Forum
  • EgosEgos God Hand Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    I think he means vote for people acting fishy as opposed to acting on the narration for a game set in a world with a lot of hearsay.

    XBL: Invisible Man PSN: Indrik
  • The Cow KingThe Cow King arf arf Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    This is so odd I find my self agreeing with Samurai.

    As much as I don`t trust the narration I do feel we need to clarify it. See what kind of super shenanigans are going on.

    Sorry Egos

    8qdrRTu.png
  • EgosEgos God Hand Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Like Rawkking said it may be RNG. It fits with the idea of gossiping townfolk and rumors getting out of control. I suppose it could be player controlled if it is, it would make most sense that a revenge secondary condition would exist. ( granted I think this gives them too much power if they do exist). And am inclined to think its RNG.

    If you give the narration any power in the future (at least that portions I pointed out, which included "said" and "whisper") ; you're gonna give the mafia a ton of power. Regardless of if they control it or not.

    People will use it to distract you. If anything you should treat it like an outed evil spouting nonsense. And just ignore it (some outed evils will point to another evil just to make villagers go "would he do that", other outed evils would implicate an innocent and constantly leave them in question).

    Which makes people confused and when people are confused, they are exploitable by the informed minority.

    XBL: Invisible Man PSN: Indrik
  • SvenskaSvenska Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    I really think that voting you out is still the right thing to do. We can learn from what happens tonight, and vote accordingly.

    Who else would we vote for? What other leads do we have? Save you being maybe almost seen at the crime, we would just be back to day 1, where it would be a random vote.

    Since your name means "swedish" in swedish, I just assumed you were, ya know, swedish.

    eNozN1RVNTYwUDVRNVUzUjOsMVQzRCON1UyApAmYbQZRYwaRBlOqZSYA7ZUOyQ==
  • EgosEgos God Hand Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Svenska wrote: »
    I really think that voting you out is still the right thing to do. We can learn from what happens tonight, and vote accordingly.

    If you mean in regards to how I turn out and then applying it to future people mentioned.. I certainly hope you don't. If you do you're just gonna be manipulated one way or another.
    Save you being maybe almost seen at the crime, we would just be back to day 1, where it would be a random vote.

    It was said "its said I was seen" :) Which means it possible I wasn't even seen. So you're close to being at day 1.

    Getting rid of me because I'm a distraction is reasonable. Getting rid of me because you think the narration has a chance of being reliable is foolish.

    Hell if this game actually fits the theme well (which I get the feeling it does) witches may be occasionally mentioned and they won't even be guilty of what they are accused of.

    Which goes to my point in the future I strongly advise you base suspicions on normal procedure instead of the narration in any way.

    XBL: Invisible Man PSN: Indrik
  • EgosEgos God Hand Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    If it helps to explain why you should just ignore the narration in the future. Is my belief that it could just be a muddle mess that just distracts you.

    For example

    Day 1- Innocent is put narration, innocent dies to vote

    Day 2- Innocent is put in narration, innocent dies to mafia or vigi

    Day 3- Mafia is put in narration, doesn't die. There is some contention but enough of a counter argument to keep them alive.

    Day 4- Innocent is put in narration, doesn't die. Previous mafia outed in narration is killed by vigi or something.

    Day 5- whole day is spent debating on day 4 person.

    There is a pretty wide range of ways the villagers time and specials abilities (seers may be an exception; don't know entire rules) could be wasted . If the narration as to someone being innocent or guilty. Or people even debating it, I think.

    I emphasize this because a fair number of you are new or newer. And there are some potential Sharks in this game that could take advantage of your confusion.

    XBL: Invisible Man PSN: Indrik
  • Sir FabulousSir Fabulous Malevolent Squid God Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Look Egos. I see your point, but really, what else have we got to go on here? I agree that you probably aren't evil, but it would be foolish to pass up an oppertunity to collect all the data for the day.

  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Well, ignoring information is silly, unless we have good reason to suspect it is sufficiently meaningless.

    Day 1 - Innocent is put narration, innocent dies to vote
    Day 2 - we kill or vig the narrationed innocent, and we then ignore it for the rest of the game

    If it's demonstrated to be useless, then we won't use it, even if mafia do get put in there eventually.

    The INNS bandwagon was pretty much a given and too much of a landslide to really learn much about who voted for who.

  • LoserForHireXLoserForHireX Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Hmmm...well

    I think the case for Ego's innocence is a good one. However, it's already been a distraction, and it will continue to be until either a mafia is hit by a vig, or until Egos is dead. Also, if he dies and comes up clean, then we know that the narration is untrustworthy and we can not suspect people who are mentioned in it.

    I just imagine that if Egos doesn't die to the vote, and we instead kill someone else who is also innocent, that it'll just be an egos wagon every day, and he will become a tool of the mafia.

    To prevent this...Egos must die

    "The only way to get rid of a temptation is to give into it." - Oscar Wilde
    "We believe in the people and their 'wisdom' as if there was some special secret entrance to knowledge that barred to anyone who had ever learned anything." - Friedrich Nietzsche
  • LucedesLucedes Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    If you're not mafia, we learn that the narration is unreliable from your death.

    If you are mafia, we kill a mafia.

    This sounds like a good play to me.

  • MegatinMegatin Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Not a huge amount of info to be gained by this, but because I wanted to see if I could figure out how to do it, I present...

    A GRAPH!
    Spoiler:

    Accurate (I think!) up to post 275.

    The EB votes will be either very telling, or not at all, depending on how Egos turns up I guess.

    edit: For clarity, that's Votes on the Y axis, Post # on the X axis.

  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Well, egos has a majority at this point, so might as well

  • RingoRingo Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Look Phyphor, if you don't pay attention to our mafia proboards, we'll never get anything accomplished at all

    ceres wrote: »
    I'm just going to go ahead and lock this thread before I feel any worse about humanity.
    Edcrab's Exigency RPG now featured at the Exigency Forum
  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Well sorry, I can only put so much effort into being evil after the last game

  • MegatinMegatin Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    jdarksun wrote: »
    Megatin, I love your graphs. Love.

    Egos, for purely scientific purposes.

    I stole the idea from Shanic, so love him.

    Unless, you know, we can split you :winky:.


    (I don't even know what that means)

  • UltaruneUltarune Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Man, that's a pretty farfetched explanation. I'd say there are three more likely ones:

    a) narration jacking
    b) public seer
    c) Dunadan had a power that would hint at his killer upon death

    Probably narration jacking though.

    What I said about spreading rumors about who was the killer, pretty much narration jacking.
    Egos wrote: »
    Shushnik wrote: »
    It's said that Samuel Backstreet, who lives on the next farm, was seen fleeing from the scene of her grizzly murder. The whispers even speak of blood on his hands and an evil gleam in his eye.


    ....
    Ultarune wrote: »

    I've seen plenty of fine players in all manners of game lose to players below their skill level because they assumed their opponents would be making perfect moves.


    Thanks, btw.

    I was discussing a game theory concept there, not specifically you. My main argument, and the one most people seem to agree on, is that we have more to gain by torching you tonight, even if we think you were probably framed, then not killing you. The number of crimes that have been solved because the killer dropped his wallet on the way out, or some similar identification, is surprising.

    Cops don't walk into a murder scene, pick up a dropped wallet which doesn't match the victim, and say "Nah, way to obvious, what type of killer drops there wallet while leaving the scene of the crime? Lets investigate other random people on the street." They follow up the lead, even if it seems unlikely.

  • LucedesLucedes Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    But Ulta, this is PHALLA.

    Dropping your metaphorical wallet is occasionally a strategy to divert attention from yourself. I'm serious.

  • edited June 2010
    Vote is closed for day 2. Narration to follow

  • EgosEgos God Hand Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Can confirm thisland is my wife. Through all indications.

    Good luck to those few who believed me and not because you are the other side :)

    XBL: Invisible Man PSN: Indrik
  • Sir FabulousSir Fabulous Malevolent Squid God Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Huh? I think I confused this Phalla with Vote Manip Phalla. I didn't get time to send in my Mafia Kill Orders!


    (Oh god it's a joke don't lynch me!)

  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    edited June 2010
    It can be, the real flaw in the analogy is lack of resources. The police can followup with the wallet and talk to other people, we can't, we're limited in time and actions.

    In the end, it really comes down to: is egos a better target than the RNG will give and/or will his death provide us with more info than an RNG target? We don't really know, but maybe

  • MegatinMegatin Registered User regular
    edited June 2010
    Sure would be nice is Capfalcon showed up here soon. There wasn't a big gap between vote-close and narration yesterday.

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