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US Congressional Elections 2012: Scott Brown, Diviner of Ancestry!

enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
edited September 2012 in Debate and/or Discourse
So there has been some desire to talk about non-Presidential politics and thus far we've mostly kept it quiet or created tangents that makes Jeff mad at us in the primary thread or the Obama thread or anywhere else we could find a flimsy excuse to talk about them. Let's instead make a thread to talk about things. First, the House. The House races are totally unpredictable, without a ton of huge news as of yet. Congress is incredibly unpopular, even more than it usually is. Whether that generates yet another wave election against the party in power (2 of the previous 3 elections have been with the other being an party in power wave driven by the President) is unknown at this time. It's entirely possible the House flips back to Democratic control and Nancy Pelosi gets her gavel back.

320px-2012_Senate_election_map.svg.png

The Senate is where most of the news is so far. Democrats have a tough map to work with, as you can see. Dark blue = Democratic incumbent, light blue = retiring Democrat, dark red/light red correspond, dark green is Bernie Sanders running for re-election in Vermont, light green is Joe Lieberman retiring in Connecticut.

While it's conceivable the Democrats could take out one of the Maine twins or the Nevada/Arizona seats (Nevada is an R incumbent, but never been elected before as it's John Ensign's vacated seat), the most likely Democratic pick up is in Massachusetts. Where, today, Thomas Conroy dropped out of the race and endorsed Elizabeth Warren, which basically leaves the field cleared for her. Warren is a middle class advocate, chaired the oversight of TARP funding, fought like hell for the CFPB and likely would have been its head if Senate Republicans didn't HAAAAAATE her and it.

She makes the Democrats' middle class argument really clearly, basically like this:



She's also openly endorsed OWS and is in many ways wrote the intellectual foundation of what they did. She's also good on The Daily Show and generally explaining the financial meltdown in layperson terms.

She's running against Scott Brown, who the banks love. Conventional wisdom is viewing it as a proxy war for the larger issues of OWS style populism vs. the influence of bankers and as a hugely important race.

Use this thread to talk about the upcoming Congressional races, or just talk about how awesome Elizabeth Warren is.

enlightenedbum on
Lose: to suffer defeat, to misplace (Ex: "I hope I don't lose the match." "Did you lose your phone again?")
Loose: about to slip, to release (Ex: "That knot is loose." "Loose arrows.")
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Posts

  • dbrock270dbrock270 Registered User regular
    Expect the GOP to take full control of Congress with veto over ruling powers but it wouldn't matter cause Newt Gingrich will be the President.

  • Pi-r8Pi-r8 Registered User regular
    I feel like it hardly matters who wins the senate these days. Either way, they're not going to win a 60 seat majority, and it basically requires 60 votes to do anything there, these days.

  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Harrisonburg, VARegistered User regular
    edited December 2011
    Nitpick: none of the three previous elections were anti-incumbent, they were anti-party. Anti-incumbent elections feature plenty of entrenched officeholders of both parties losing, which hasn't happened in decades, if ever. Also, the only way the GOP is taking a veto-proof majority in the Senate is if they win literally every single race, which is not going to happen - in fact I don't believe one party has ever swept a Senate cycle in the history of the country. (And the Senate is part of Congress, so Congressional/Senate doesn't really make sense.)

    Captain Carrot on
  • VanguardVanguard The system was breaking down. Registered User, __BANNED USERS regular
    The GOP is going to win big as far as congressional stuff goes. Elizabeth Warren will get elected. Obama, re-elected.

  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Harrisonburg, VARegistered User regular
  • CommunistCowCommunistCow Registered User regular
    edited December 2011
    Ouch so there are 10 GOP seats with 8 incumbents and 2 retiring GOP members and 19 Dem seats with 16 incumbents and 3 retiring? That just looks like we have more to lose than the GOP.

    I'm not very hopeful that we will retain the seats in New Mexico, North Dakota, or Virginia. :?

    CommunistCow on
    No, I am not really communist. Yes, it is weird that I use this name.
  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Harrisonburg, VARegistered User regular
  • KalTorakKalTorak Registered User regular
    I'm in love with Warren.

  • override367override367 misogynist/MRA/socially irresponsible Registered User regular
    I wish Obama would echo Warren's rhetoric, she's just great

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  • dbrock270dbrock270 Registered User regular
    edited December 2011
    This thread reminded me of Christine O'Donnell and how she had to make an ad that said she wasn't a witch.

    In 2010.

    That, I think, was one of the lowest political moments in American history.

    dbrock270 on
  • override367override367 misogynist/MRA/socially irresponsible Registered User regular
    dbrock270 wrote:
    This thread reminded me of Christine O'Donnell and how she had to make an ad that said she wasn't a witch.

    In 2010.

    That, I think, was one of the lowest political moments in American history.

    Sounds like something a witch would do

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  • kildykildy Registered User regular
    I have little to add beyond I <3 Warren so much.

  • lonelyahavalonelyahava One day, I will be able to say to myself "I am beautiful and I am perfect just the way I am"Registered User regular
    dbrock270 wrote:
    This thread reminded me of Christine O'Donnell and how she had to make an ad that said she wasn't a witch.

    In 2010.

    That, I think, was one of the lowest political moments in American history.

    ugh, do you have to bring her up? although that whole thing helped greatly with this one small business in my home town. her shop is called the "soap fairy" and she does homemade soaps and things. So her board outside said multiple iterations of "I am not a soap"

    great.

  • Psycho Internet HawkPsycho Internet Hawk Registered User regular
    dbrock270 wrote:
    This thread reminded me of Christine O'Donnell and how she had to make an ad that said she wasn't a witch.

    In 2010.

    That, I think, was one of the lowest political moments in American history.

    Well, have you ever seen her on a scale compared to a duck? I didn't think so.

    Also at least we didn't burn her, so there are some historically worse moments, I think.

    ezek1t.jpg
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Nitpick: none of the three previous elections were anti-incumbent, they were anti-party. Anti-incumbent elections feature plenty of entrenched officeholders of both parties losing, which hasn't happened in decades, if ever. Also, the only way the GOP is taking a veto-proof majority in the Senate is if they win literally every single race, which is not going to happen - in fact I don't believe one party has ever swept a Senate cycle in the history of the country. (And the Senate is part of Congress, so Congressional/Senate doesn't really make sense.)

    Some people bitch all the time about the other way regarding Congressional meaning Senate, I decided to appease them. I'll change it to "party in power" though, that is more accurate.

    Lose: to suffer defeat, to misplace (Ex: "I hope I don't lose the match." "Did you lose your phone again?")
    Loose: about to slip, to release (Ex: "That knot is loose." "Loose arrows.")
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Ouch so there are 10 GOP seats with 8 incumbents and 2 retiring GOP members and 19 Dem seats with 16 incumbents and 3 retiring? That just looks like we have more to lose than the GOP.

    I'm not very hopeful that we will retain the seats in New Mexico, North Dakota, or Virginia. :?

    And yeah, this is the issue with crushing them horribly 2006, we get a fun map in 2012.

    Lose: to suffer defeat, to misplace (Ex: "I hope I don't lose the match." "Did you lose your phone again?")
    Loose: about to slip, to release (Ex: "That knot is loose." "Loose arrows.")
  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Harrisonburg, VARegistered User regular
    Some people bitch all the time about the other way regarding Congressional meaning Senate, I decided to appease them.
    You shouldn't appease them, they're wrong. :P
    Ouch so there are 10 GOP seats with 8 incumbents and 2 retiring GOP members and 19 Dem seats with 16 incumbents and 3 retiring? That just looks like we have more to lose than the GOP.

    I'm not very hopeful that we will retain the seats in New Mexico, North Dakota, or Virginia. :?

    And yeah, this is the issue with crushing them horribly 2006, we get a fun map in 2012.
    We'll have plenty of opportunities in 2016, though.

  • mcdermottmcdermott Registered User regular
    edited December 2011
    Ouch so there are 10 GOP seats with 8 incumbents and 2 retiring GOP members and 19 Dem seats with 16 incumbents and 3 retiring? That just looks like we have more to lose than the GOP.

    I'm not very hopeful that we will retain the seats in New Mexico, North Dakota, or Virginia. :?

    Montana will be rough, too. Rehberg's a douchebag, with the unfavorables to boot, but he's also been sitting in the House seat for a while and never had much trouble keeping it. Last I heard it was a toss-up, though obvious we're a ways out. Tester has his work cut out for him, though.

    No idea what the House race there looks like, with Rehberg unassing the seat. Maybe the Democrats will take a run at it, but I doubt it.

    mcdermott on
  • AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    mcdermott wrote:
    Ouch so there are 10 GOP seats with 8 incumbents and 2 retiring GOP members and 19 Dem seats with 16 incumbents and 3 retiring? That just looks like we have more to lose than the GOP.

    I'm not very hopeful that we will retain the seats in New Mexico, North Dakota, or Virginia. :?

    Montana will be rough, too. Rehberg's a douchebag, with the unfavorables to boot, but he's also been sitting in the House seat for a while and never had much trouble keeping it. Last I heard it was a toss-up, though obvious we're a ways out. Tester has his work cut out for him, though.

    No idea what the House race there looks like, with Rehberg unassing the seat. Maybe the Democrats will take a run at it, but I doubt it.

    I don't agree about that (and from the ads I see every night while making dinner, neither do the Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove) - Rehberg's more or less kept his seat through inertia, and now he's the challenger. It doesn't help that he's done some stupid shit both professionally (attacking Pell Grants, pushing for more privatization of Interior lands) and personally (BUI), and he's got a bit of a reputation as a weather vane (think Mitt Romney, but dumber.) Meanwhile, Tester's done some big things here - the big one I can think of was pushing through the telemedicine systems for the VA here (which is really fucking big as this is a big state with just one VA hospital.)

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  • mcdermottmcdermott Registered User regular
    He's a challenger, but from what I saw on a visit back that way he's basically going hard negative and trying to pass all the failures in Washington off on the Democrats (and Tester by association).

    Mostly I'm afraid it'll work.

  • DeebaserDeebaser Lead Frog Rammer Fake Board GamerRegistered User regular
    Maybe this is just me living in one of the deepest of blue states, but I think the electorate has changed considerably over the past four years. I can't see the GOP making any gains this go round, especially in a presidential election cycle

  • AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    mcdermott wrote:
    He's a challenger, but from what I saw on a visit back that way he's basically going hard negative and trying to pass all the failures in Washington off on the Democrats (and Tester by association).

    Mostly I'm afraid it'll work.

    And I don't think it will, because it's really fucking hard to play the outsider card when you've been in Washington longer than the incumbent. And he's got his name on quite a bit of stupidity as well. He's gone hard negative in large part because it's really the only route he can take, because there's no fucking way he can run on his own record.

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  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Harrisonburg, VARegistered User regular
    dbrock270 wrote:
    This thread reminded me of Christine O'Donnell and how she had to make an ad that said she wasn't a witch.

    In 2010.

    That, I think, was one of the lowest political moments in American history.
    She didn't have to. She chose to, and nobody has ever had any idea why the hell she did that. It's not as if Coons accused her of witchcraft.

  • AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    dbrock270 wrote:
    This thread reminded me of Christine O'Donnell and how she had to make an ad that said she wasn't a witch.

    In 2010.

    That, I think, was one of the lowest political moments in American history.
    She didn't have to. She chose to, and nobody has ever had any idea why the hell she did that. It's not as if Coons accused her of witchcraft.

    Actually, it was explained. The producer of the ad pushed it to her as a way to put the controversy to bed.

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  • 3lwap03lwap0 Registered User regular
    kildy wrote:
    I have little to add beyond I <3 Warren so much.

    This. If I could say confidently one person in politics is watching out for my interests, she's it.

    I think Pringles original intention was to make tennis balls... but on the day the rubber was supposed to show up a truckload of potatoes came. Pringles is a laid-back company, so they just said, "Fuck it, cut em up!".
  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    edited December 2011
    Deebaser wrote:
    Maybe this is just me living in one of the deepest of blue states, but I think the electorate has changed considerably over the past four years. I can't see the GOP making any gains this go round, especially in a presidential election cycle

    I think the GOP makes some gains in the House if the Tea Party doesn't primary out some of their decent challengers again, and I think the Ds lose the VA and ND open seats and pick up CT and (hopefully) MA.

    I think the overall map is something between 2008 and 2010, though - I think Campaign Obama will come back and get re-elected (especially if the GOP nominates anyone but Romney) but Congress will still be divided like it is today.

    a5ehren on
  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Harrisonburg, VARegistered User regular
    edited December 2011
    Lieberman is already being counted as a Democrat (not that he votes with us half the time), so we'll be holding that seat, not picking it up.
    dbrock270 wrote:
    This thread reminded me of Christine O'Donnell and how she had to make an ad that said she wasn't a witch.

    In 2010.

    That, I think, was one of the lowest political moments in American history.
    She didn't have to. She chose to, and nobody has ever had any idea why the hell she did that. It's not as if Coons accused her of witchcraft.

    Actually, it was explained. The producer of the ad pushed it to her as a way to put the controversy to bed.
    What controversy?

    Captain Carrot on
  • deadonthestreetdeadonthestreet Registered User regular
    Also remember, some house seats are moving states because of the census. I'm losing my rep because his district is now gone. This slants pretty heavily republican:
    New York 	-2
    Ohio 	-2
    Illinois 	-1
    Iowa 	-1
    Louisiana 	-1
    Massachusetts 	-1
    Michigan 	-1
    Missouri 	-1
    New Jersey 	-1
    Pennsylvania 	-1
    Arizona 	+1
    Georgia 	+1
    Nevada 	+1
    South Carolina 	+1
    Utah 	+1
    Washington 	+1
    Florida 	+2
    Texas 	+4
    

  • CommunistCowCommunistCow Registered User regular
    Why? We're polling decently in all three, to my knowledge.

    Polling in Virginia is pretty close and Webb wasn't exactly on the progressive end of the spectrum.
    New Mexico had /very/ slim margins in the 2000 and 2004 general elections. Heinrich is polling better but I'm still wary.
    I haven't seen any polling for North Dakota but I guess I really shouldn't be that worried about that seat since Conrad won it by such a huge margin in 2006.

    No, I am not really communist. Yes, it is weird that I use this name.
  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Harrisonburg, VARegistered User regular
    Why? We're polling decently in all three, to my knowledge.

    Polling in Virginia is pretty close and Webb wasn't exactly on the progressive end of the spectrum.
    Neither is Kaine. Also, "pretty close" does not mean "likely to lose".
    New Mexico had /very/ slim margins in the 2000 and 2004 general elections. Heinrich is polling better but I'm still wary.
    Right, 2000 and 2004. That's now eight years ago. Virginia was solidly GOP then, but went for Obama by six points. Different landscape.
    I haven't seen any polling for North Dakota but I guess I really shouldn't be that worried about that seat since Conrad won it by such a huge margin in 2006.
    Which means dick, since he's not running this time.

  • a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    Lieberman is already being counted as a Democrat (not that he votes with us half the time), so we'll be holding that seat, not picking it up.

    That's why I called it a pick-up :P. Hopefully the new Senator will be a little less obstinate.

  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Harrisonburg, VARegistered User regular
    Right, but in terms of controlling the Senate, which is what's at stake once more, it's not a pick-up, since he already grudgingly votes for Harry Reid as Majority Leader.

  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic I've Done Worse Registered User regular
    edited December 2011
    Also remember, some house seats are moving states because of the census. I'm losing my rep because his district is now gone. This slants pretty heavily republican:
    New York 	-2
    

    New York at least is a wash. They'll eliminate one upstate R seat and one downstate D seat. I know Weiner's is up, I think one of the Buffalo seats is the likely upstate choice. Maybe craiglist ab guy but I don't remember what's up with his seat currently.

    Edit: Chris Lee's seat, but that was won by a Democrat in the special election so I don't know if that's going anywhere.

    DevoutlyApathetic on
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  • Captain UltraCaptain Ultra Registered User regular
    Say hello to the next United States Senator from Texas. ESPN broadcaster, Craig James

    “I’m the next president,” Greene said. “I’ll be 35 … just before November, so I was born to be president. I’m the man. I’m the man. I’m the man. Greene’s the man. I’m the man. I’m the greatest person ever. I was born to be president. I’m the man, I’m the greatest individual ever.”
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited December 2011
    Sadly, his hooker murdering past* will prevent him from winning. Wait, no, I mean happily. Especially if ESPN finally lets his sorry ass go.

    *not real, CFB blog meme

    EDIT: I just checked, Google's #1 auto complete for "Craig James" is "Craig James killed 5 hookers." The second biggest Google problem in Republican politics!

    enlightenedbum on
    Lose: to suffer defeat, to misplace (Ex: "I hope I don't lose the match." "Did you lose your phone again?")
    Loose: about to slip, to release (Ex: "That knot is loose." "Loose arrows.")
  • MechMantisMechMantis Registered User regular
    edited December 2011
    Also remember, some house seats are moving states because of the census. I'm losing my rep because his district is now gone. This slants pretty heavily republican:
    New York 	-2
    

    New York at least is a wash. They'll eliminate one upstate R seat and one downstate D seat. I know Weiner's is up, I think one of the Buffalo seats is the likely upstate choice. Maybe craiglist ab guy but I don't remember what's up with his seat currently.

    Edit: Chris Lee's seat, but that was won by a Democrat in the special election so I don't know if that's going anywhere.

    He resigned the moment the scandal broke, and as mentioned, Democrat victory in a special election.

    So my congresscritter basically switched.

    Not surprised we're losing it though, the region has been hemorrhaging people.

    MechMantis on
    UA1OmVB.png
  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic I've Done Worse Registered User regular
    I hope however they get redrawn I don't get shoved into Burkle's district. She scares me. Like a stepford wife.

    The unspoken part is I hope Owens seat isn't gerrymandered into something he can't win, though his current seat might already be unwinnable without the help of the friendly Conservative party.

    Trogg wrote: »
    Not as positive as AIDS and cancer, but positive nonetheless.

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  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    Latest poll in MA-Sen - Warren +749-42 but its early

    11793-1.png
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  • JihadJesusJihadJesus Registered User regular
    My house rep will continue to be batshit crazy; I don't even know if he's up this term, but it doesn't matter. They love the crazy around here, if he's running he's winning.

    Tired of getting reamed by Gamestop? Sign up for Goozex!
  • DoctorArchDoctorArch Curmudgeon Registered User regular
    edited December 2011
    JihadJesus wrote:
    My house rep will continue to be batshit crazy; I don't even know if he's up this term, but it doesn't matter. They love the crazy around here, if he's running he's winning.

    Doc Hastings right? The man has always been a colossal fuckmuppet who continually covered for people like Tom Delay when Hastings was the chair of the House Ethics Committee.

    DoctorArch on
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