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[Primary 2012] Romney triumphs in NH, but his campaign is going South (Carolina) from here

PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
edited January 2012 in Debate and/or Discourse
A politics thread got to 100 without being locked. Excellent work everyone, the free market at work!

We are one day away from the Iowa caucuses, the first event in the Presidential nominee selection process. Twenty-eight delegates and a whole lots of Media Narrative are at stake.

The Candidates
Romney
Mitt "Mittens" Romney
romney3_1136907e.jpg
Bio: Mormon, former Gov of Massachusetts
Strength: its his turn, front runner, "electable", inevitable victory
Weaknesses: Mormon, former Gov of Massachusetts land of gays and universal healthcare, lack of charisma, unpopular with the base


The Not Romneys Each gets a turn as the "front runner"... Paul may be handing off to Santorum
Newt Gingrich
gingrich_newt.jpg
Bio: Former Speaker of the House, book tourer
Strengths: Conservative, Not-Romney, old white guy from the South
Weaknesses: Hasn't held office for over a decade, really old, left his wife because she got cancer, dickishness seeps through

Ron Paul
dr_paul_highresolution-239x300.jpg
Bio: Perpetual candidate for President, Representative from Texas
Strength: Legion of fanatical supporters, unique viewpoint
Weakness: Views that both Democrats and Republicans find insane, desire to descend into anarchy, really old, racist or racist adjacent

Rick Perry
rick_perry_yo1.jpg
Bio: Gov of Texas
Strength: Gov of Texas, conservative and evangelical, fundraising
Weakness: Actual abilities, memory, campaigning

Michele Bachmann
B001256.jpg
Bio: Representative from Minn
Strength: Evangelical Hard Right Conservative
Weakness: Crazy eyes match crazy, completely lost on any substantive question, not Sarah Palin

Rick Santorum
santorum.jpg
Bio: Former Senator from Pennsylvania
Strength: Evangelicalmight-as-well-be-Evangelical-brand-of-Catholic Hard Right Conservative
Weakness: Lack of charisma, name means an unpleasant byproduct of anal sex

Jon Huntsman
no_pic.jpg
Bio: Former Gov of Utah, Former Ambassador to China
Strength: semi-Moderate and not Romney
Weakness: Mormon, semi-moderate, worked for ObamaHitler

RIP PawPaw, 999



The Calendar
Spoiler:

The Polls:

Santorum surges and either Romney or Paul or Santorum leads in Iowa

Romney is clear front runner in NH

No one has polled SC since Gingrich was the surging Not-Romney

PantsB on
11793-1.png
Spoiler:
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Posts

  • Kipling217Kipling217 Registered User regular
    Yes, I never doubted our ability to reach not-Romney status. Wonder how long it will last, before the inevitable fall from grace....

    The Iowa caucuses are on the 4th right?

    Communicating from the last of the Babylon Stations.
  • FencingsaxFencingsax Bondage Discipline Spider-Man Registered User regular
    The Santorum picture never fails to make me laugh.

    It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it
  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    edited January 2012
    FiveThirtyEight has
    Our forecast model, which combines the Public Policy Polling survey with other recent polls of the state, also shows an effective three-way tie, although it has Mr. Romney ahead by the slimmest of margins. The model projects Mr. Romney to receive 21.0 percent of the vote, followed by Mr. Paul at 20.6 percent and Mr. Santorum — whose numbers have been on the rise — at 19.3 percent.
    To me this suggests Paul will win given the intensity of his support and that Santorum will surge past Romney and bubble up to second place relevancy given his ideological makeup and momentum. Romney's chances will be hurt by this setback and instead of inevitably winning the nomination he will inevitably not lose the nomination.

    PantsB on
    11793-1.png
    Spoiler:
  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    Kipling217 wrote:
    Yes, I never doubted our ability to reach not-Romney status. Wonder how long it will last, before the inevitable fall from grace....

    The Iowa caucuses are on the 4th right?
    Nope Tuesday the 3rd, aka tomorrow.

    11793-1.png
    Spoiler:
  • YougottawannaYougottawanna Registered User regular
    For the last few months I wondered what would happen if a not-Romney timed his fifteen minutes just right, and won the first primary(/caucus) based on that. Santorum looks like he might pull it off.

  • Pi-r8Pi-r8 Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote:
    FiveThirtyEight has
    Our forecast model, which combines the Public Policy Polling survey with other recent polls of the state, also shows an effective three-way tie, although it has Mr. Romney ahead by the slimmest of margins. The model projects Mr. Romney to receive 21.0 percent of the vote, followed by Mr. Paul at 20.6 percent and Mr. Santorum — whose numbers have been on the rise — at 19.3 percent.
    To me this suggests Paul will win given the intensity of his support and that Santorum will surge past Romney and bubble up to second place relevancy given his ideological makeup and momentum. Romney's chances will be hurt by this setback and instead of inevitably winning the nomination he will inevitably not lose the nomination.
    Yeah, I agree. Also Paul's supporters are probably the hardest to poll in a traditional "likely Republican voter" poll. I predict Ron Paul gets first in Iowa, Romney 2nd, and Santorum 3rd, but all pretty close.

  • MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    Really, anyone in the OP should have "not Romney" listed as on of their strengths.

    It should be interesting to see what the final results are from Iowa. A part of me wants Santorum to win, just so that the wheels can fall off about 3 weeks later.

    Dumb Hero wrote: »
    "Okay, you take 2d4 damage from the ogre's dick impaling your 2inch anus"
    Satan! Look here!
  • CptKemzikCptKemzik Registered User regular
    I don't know if it was intentional, but I love Huntsman not having a pic - pretty reflective of his consistently low polling numbers. If it weren't for the fact that he actually possesses some competence he may as well have been part of the mccotter/roemer no-shows.

  • FencingsaxFencingsax Bondage Discipline Spider-Man Registered User regular
    edited January 2012
    Can we merge this OP with the other thread? Cause there can only be one, and the mod posted in the other thread.

    Edit: I meant to say I liked this OP better.

    Fencingsax on
    It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it
  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    I see we're celebrating the 100-page conclusion of the previous thread with two new ones. I vote for this one, courtesy of the nicer OP.

  • LawndartLawndart Registered User regular
    Speaking of the free market, I would like to put my genuine gold Ron Paul liberty dollar on this version of the 2012 GOP primary thread, since unlike that other 2012 GOP primary thread, it has not cheated on it's cancer-stricken wife, nor has it endorsed the liberal conspiracy theories of evolution, climate change, and homosexuality.

    My current Iowa Caucus results prediction: Santorum 1st, Paul 2nd, Romney 3rd. Bachmann drops out, the others stumble on through New Hampshire or South Carolina.

  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    Romney: Oh nooooooooo, Europe.
    [He] sees the European welfare state as perhaps being the more appropriate model. An entitlement society, where the role of government is increasingly to take from someone to give to others. That would deaden the American spirit. That would substitute envy for ambition. It would poison the very spirit of America that allows us to be one nation under god.
    Those fuckers with higher quality of life than us or equal quality of life.

  • CantidoCantido Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote:
    Romney: Oh nooooooooo, Europe.
    [He] sees the European welfare state as perhaps being the more appropriate model. An entitlement society, where the role of government is increasingly to take from someone to give to others. That would deaden the American spirit. That would substitute envy for ambition. It would poison the very spirit of America that allows us to be one nation under god.
    Those fuckers with higher quality of life than us or equal quality of life.

    Being happy is wrong.

    steam_sig.png
  • ZephiranZephiran Registered User regular
    "Ambition" means being fuck-poor and indebted for life.

    Give the poor some guns and see where that ambition gets you!

  • Pi-r8Pi-r8 Registered User regular
    Cantido wrote:
    Couscous wrote:
    Romney: Oh nooooooooo, Europe.
    [He] sees the European welfare state as perhaps being the more appropriate model. An entitlement society, where the role of government is increasingly to take from someone to give to others. That would deaden the American spirit. That would substitute envy for ambition. It would poison the very spirit of America that allows us to be one nation under god.
    Those fuckers with higher quality of life than us or equal quality of life.

    Being happy is wrong.

    you only have the right to pursue happiness. You don't actually have the right to be happy.

  • JarsJars Registered User regular
    I hope the primary remains competitive until new york. I will be so sad if romney is the only person on the ballot

  • jothkijothki Registered User regular
    They're actually having Santorum be a NotRomney? I didn't think they'd be that desperate.

  • TaramoorTaramoor Registered User regular
    Jars wrote:
    I hope the primary remains competitive until new york. I will be so sad if romney is the only person on the ballot

    I honestly think the whole thing would've been better if Romney had been the only competitor from the beginning.

    How much would support and enthusiasm have fallen by the wayside by now, how much by the actual election, if the only person standing up there was the guy who fired your dad?

  • Harry DresdenHarry Dresden Registered User regular
    edited January 2012
    Couscous wrote:
    Romney: Oh nooooooooo, Europe.
    [He] sees the European welfare state as perhaps being the more appropriate model. An entitlement society, where the role of government is increasingly to take from someone to give to others. That would deaden the American spirit. That would substitute envy for ambition. It would poison the very spirit of America that allows us to be one nation under god.
    Those fuckers with higher quality of life than us or equal quality of life.
    He wants to turn America into pre-Revolutionary France. Why is that not surprising?

    Harry Dresden on
  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    On the AIDS issue, Paul said it is science that sexually transmitted diseases are caused by “promiscuous” sexual activity, and others should not be forced to pay for that. “If a fault comes of people because of their personal behavior -- in a free society, people do dumb things -- it isn’t to be placed as a burden on innocent people,’’ Paul said. “Why should they have to pay for any consequences? That’s a nationalistic or socialistic attitude.”
    Paul: Wants to let people with serious diseases die.

  • KungFuKungFu Registered User regular
    edited January 2012
    Santorum is not a not-Romney.

    He just appeals to crazy christoconservatian values that are so hot in Iowa right now. Judging by how poorly he can expect to do after Iowa, he may as well just settle down there with his family and start a farm or commune or something.

    KungFu on
    Theft 4 Bread
  • JarsJars Registered User regular
    edited January 2012
    that's probably a popular sentiment. ask people how enthusiastic they would be about paying for lung cancer treatment for smokers.

    not that I'm saying people have a choice in contracting STDs as most of them don't even know they have it

    Jars on
  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    Only caring about the deserving poor or welfare recipient is such a 19th century idea.

  • HenroidHenroid Nobody Nowhere fastRegistered User regular
    Couscous wrote:
    On the AIDS issue, Paul said it is science that sexually transmitted diseases are caused by “promiscuous” sexual activity, and others should not be forced to pay for that. “If a fault comes of people because of their personal behavior -- in a free society, people do dumb things -- it isn’t to be placed as a burden on innocent people,’’ Paul said. “Why should they have to pay for any consequences? That’s a nationalistic or socialistic attitude.”
    Paul: Wants to let people with serious diseases die.

    And somewhere, people cheered. And still think that AIDS is a gays-only thing.

    Ron Paul needs a bunch in the face.

    "Ultima Online Pre-Trammel is the perfect example of why libertarians are full of shit."
    - @Ludious
    PA Lets Play Archive - Twitter - Blog (6/15/14)
  • KungFuKungFu Registered User regular
    Henroid wrote:
    Ron Paul needs a bunch in the face.

    Possibly a deleted scene in Bruno.

    Theft 4 Bread
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    KungFu wrote:
    Santorum is not a not-Romney.

    He just appeals to crazy christoconservatian values that are so hot in Iowa right now. Judging by how poorly he can expect to do after Iowa, he may as well just settle down there with his family and start a farm or commune or something.

    Media narratives are glorious things. And come on, Bachmann and Gingrich were previous not-Romneys, and Paul is the current one. The bar is low.

    Lose: to suffer defeat, to misplace (Ex: "I hope I don't lose the match." "Did you lose your phone again?")
    Loose: about to slip, to release (Ex: "That knot is loose." "Loose arrows.")
  • SchrodingerSchrodinger Registered User regular
    This ad:

    imgad?id=CICAgICQ3pm2MBCsAhjvATIIV7K47LuPSaY

    Takes you to this video:



    I don't get what the banner above is trying to say.

  • CommunistCowCommunistCow Registered User regular
    WTH I go on my honeymoon and come back and Santorum is polling well in Iowa?

    So I saw a Romney stump speech an hour or two ago on CNN and it actually sounded pretty good. If I didn't know anything about economics, the US budget, or his past it would have been convincing.

    No, I am not really communist. Yes, it is weird that I use this name.
  • SiskaSiska Shorty Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote:
    On the AIDS issue, Paul said it is science that sexually transmitted diseases are caused by “promiscuous” sexual activity, and others should not be forced to pay for that. “If a fault comes of people because of their personal behavior -- in a free society, people do dumb things -- it isn’t to be placed as a burden on innocent people,’’ Paul said. “Why should they have to pay for any consequences? That’s a nationalistic or socialistic attitude.”
    Paul: Wants to let people with serious diseases die.
    Only skanks and whore-mongers. And the people they enter a relationship with. And their children.

    Izuela.png
  • KungFuKungFu Registered User regular
    From NPR
    "I don't want to make black people's lives better by giving them somebody else's money," Santorum begins. "I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn the money and provide for themselves and their families."

    Santorum did not elaborate on why he singled out blacks who rely on federal assistance. The voters here didn't seem to care.

    :lol:

    Theft 4 Bread
  • HenroidHenroid Nobody Nowhere fastRegistered User regular
    KungFu wrote:
    From NPR
    "I don't want to make black people's lives better by giving them somebody else's money," Santorum begins. "I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn the money and provide for themselves and their families."

    Santorum did not elaborate on why he singled out blacks who rely on federal assistance. The voters here didn't seem to care.

    :lol:

    There's an answer.
    Spoiler:

    "Ultima Online Pre-Trammel is the perfect example of why libertarians are full of shit."
    - @Ludious
    PA Lets Play Archive - Twitter - Blog (6/15/14)
  • Harry DresdenHarry Dresden Registered User regular
    edited January 2012
    Henroid wrote:
    KungFu wrote:
    There's an answer.
    Spoiler:
    Ron Paul has just found his running mate!

    Harry Dresden on
  • JarsJars Registered User regular
    if being a racist is the requirement for being vp I think he has a whole bunch of options

  • Boring7Boring7 Registered User regular
    This ad:

    imgad?id=CICAgICQ3pm2MBCsAhjvATIIV7K47LuPSaY

    Takes you to this video:
    Spoiler:

    I don't get what the banner above is trying to say.

    At a guess, "Ron Paul is such a swell guy he is too modest to exploit this man's story so please click here and let us exploit it on his behalf without his endorsement." Also the folk responsible hope that it will be an armor-piercing question to any and all allegations of racism or other anti-Paul arguments; since people who don't like him are more likely to click an ad like that.

    But that is just a guess.

    Thanatos wrote: »
    Goldman Sachs may as well be named COBRA.
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Great Ta-nehisi Coates line:
    For the record "I'm against the drug war" has officially replaced "I have a black friend."

    Lose: to suffer defeat, to misplace (Ex: "I hope I don't lose the match." "Did you lose your phone again?")
    Loose: about to slip, to release (Ex: "That knot is loose." "Loose arrows.")
  • CervetusCervetus Registered User regular
    Hey OP, you misspelled Rick Parry's name.

    The libertarian response to anything is, "Sure, that works fine in practice, but it doesn't fly in theory."
  • LawndartLawndart Registered User regular
    Henroid wrote:
    KungFu wrote:
    From NPR
    "I don't want to make black people's lives better by giving them somebody else's money," Santorum begins. "I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn the money and provide for themselves and their families."

    Santorum did not elaborate on why he singled out blacks who rely on federal assistance. The voters here didn't seem to care.

    :lol:

    There's an answer.
    Spoiler:
    Spoiler:

  • kaz67kaz67 Registered User
    So, Paul is now proclaiming that Santorum is a liberal.

    He justifies this by saying Santorum spends too much, but I still can't help but think a new level of crazy has been reached.

  • Captain UltraCaptain Ultra Registered User regular
    In correction of the OP, Santorum's Catholic, not evangelical.

    “I’m the next president,” Greene said. “I’ll be 35 … just before November, so I was born to be president. I’m the man. I’m the man. I’m the man. Greene’s the man. I’m the man. I’m the greatest person ever. I was born to be president. I’m the man, I’m the greatest individual ever.”
  • captainkcaptaink TexasRegistered User regular
    Found the Vegas odds in my local paper:
    http://blog.chron.com/rickperry/2012/01/as-iowa-nears-oddsmakers-make-perry-301-ron-paul-at-52/
    2012 Republican Primaries – Odds to win Iowa Caucus

    Mitt Romney 2/3

    Ron Paul 5/2

    Rick Santorum 3/1

    Newt Gingrich 25/1

    Michelle Bachmann 30/1

    Rick Perry 30/1

    Jon Huntsman 100/1

    sig.gifSteam | D3: captaink#1674 | 3DS: 2466-1914-7679
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