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[Presidential Election Thread] All Hail the Liberty Rooster.
Posts
I applaud your optimism but there's no way in hell Arizona or Georgia are going to flip blue
Not Arizona, but I could see Georgia flipping depending on Mittens's running mate. Georgia's a state that's really sensitive to the evangelical vote, which Mittens would need his VP pick to capture.
Then I clicked on the delegate tracker in the OP and saw his giant head push him past the finish line. Ah, of course!
Isn't the best case scenario the one where Obama sweeps the board and then immediately passes a resolution to send the Republican party to Mars by 2014, come Hell or high water?
But don't worry: the government only covers the cost of a one-way trip. Getting them back home is a matter for the wonders of private industry to solve!
Compromise!
So I'd look in that direction.
Additionally, you want someone from Dixie/Texas.
Honestly no one springs to mind.
That's change we can all believe in!
I'm inclined to say VA is probably a safe state this time around thanks to McDonnel, the VA legislator, Allen, demographic trends, the GOP's insanity and the VA primary.
McDonnel/VA Legislator-A fair chunk of the VA population didn't like the emphasis on social issues this year. Also given that it was voter apathy that let the current VA legislator come into power, I seriously doubt as many voters will be inclined to say "fuck it, they're all the same," it's going to be more along the lines of "do not want and I don't care how many people show up to vote, I'm going to improve the chances that the GOP doesn't make any gains. Doesn't help that McDonnel endorsed him either and wanted to be his VP.
Allen - He was a shitty governor and he's going up against a governor that was well liked. In fact, Kaine could help to hurt Romney since he could bring in a few votes for Obama, that Obama wouldn't be able to get himself. Where Allen will further encourage some potential GOP votes to boycott the election, while driving some swing voters over to the Obama camp. Also people are going to realize that Allen was the state leader for the assholes that made the state a laughing stock this year over their social regression.
Demographic wise VA has been trending towards blue and that trend hasn't seemed to change. Hell, the recession might have allowed it to pick up some steam since the job market in VA is better than the national average.
GOP alienating people who aren't wealthy, white, male and Christian pretty much ensures that a number of potential votes will either go to Obama or just not vote for anyone. I suspect most will go towards Obama because it's going to be either him or Romany, might as well go with the guy that doesn't belong to the party that's trying to fuck you over.
There are already a number of VA republicans that won't vote this fall because they felt that the establishment kept their guy off the ticket and ergo the GOP candidate isn't exactly a legitimate candidate.
Hell, might be able to include Cantor in the list of reasons why VA goes for Obama again in the fall. We'll just have to see how he fairs in his congressional election but it looks like whichever Democrat takes the party nomination to run against him will kindly point out that he told his district to fuck off after getting hit with both a 5.8 earthquake and two tropical systems. Sure it was catastrophic damage by any means but it was a sizable amount of damage that cost people money in a time when they didn't have money to spare. I'm not holding my breath, but with a shitty Presidential candidate and Senate candidate already, if Cantor's opponent can play the see this party doesn't give a fuck about your plight, they just want power and even if you give it to them, they'll still fuck you over. Then while they might not be able to unseat Cantor, it might get the ball rolling on hampering GOP support since people will either start voting Democrat or staying home.
Alan West sounds like fun though.
And the fact that Chris Christie passes for charismatic says a lot about the GOP.
Meanwhile, at Stately On Topic Manor, did Romney sweep the primaries last night?
Well, it can't be anyone Romney's already defeated. The field's already considered weak as it is. So Rick Perry's out of luck, as is Gingrich.
Considering Romney's going to be counted as Massachusetts-based for election purposes, the Northeast is probably out of play (and Massachusetts prohibited by way of Constitution, meaning no Scott Brown)- Christie's out; New Jersey doesn't balance Massachusetts. The state's November prospects tend to not get taken much into account; just where on the map it sits. Cheney was from Wyoming balancing Texas, Lieberman from Connecticut balancing Tennessee, Biden from Delaware balancing Illinois, Palin from Alaska balancing Arizona, Edwards from North Carolina balancing Massachusetts, Jack Kemp from New York balancing Kansas.
Romney is also not going to want to be surprised. Not after Palin. He's going to want to know exactly who it is he's taking with him.
Red meat, not from the northeast, known quantity, hasn't seen action in the race yet. Probably someone to help humanize Romney. Start from there.
So John Connor?
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I was more shocked that the sun rose this morning. To a filthy socialist this looks like the least enthusiastic inevitable thing ever.
Marco Rubio for VP.
He is a Teapper, Latino(the good kind according to GOP), young(relatively speaking) and compared to Romney he is charismatic. Becoming the "good" part of a failing ticket is good groundwork for 2016. Allowing him to raise his profile against other contenders without lifting a finger.
He's also apparently a nice prime ALEC shill.
Allen West was mentioned last thread, he is friends with bikers, keynote speaker at CPAC 2011, has a manly "war story" of torturing (bad) information out of an Iraqi, from Florida, and he's the Teabaggers' "black
friendcandidate". Only thing missing is him giving a blowjob to jesus, but that can be fixed if you pray loudly enough and accuse enough other folk of witchcraft.BUT, he isn't exactly a known quantity. His last controversy involved him "pulling rank" and claiming his proof of innocence was classified. His campaign spawned (?) the term, "if ballots don't work bullets will."
I don't know, I'd put my money on Jan Brewer if I had to make a bet. She's got problems, but I can already see 3 different campaign narratives built off of her. Both she and Romney are "experienced executives" (because Obama's 4 years as president don't count), Jan Brewer "stood up to Obama" by being rude at the airport for no damn reason, and she's a vagina-american, which is superior to african-american whenever they decide it is.
The most important thing for Romney's VP pick would be their ability to get 'caught' in this sort of candid photo:
...I can't find the exact photo that some people say caused Clinton to suddenly surge against Bush, but this'll do just as well.
I bet that had more effect on the outcome of the election.
I was referring to the iconic image of Clinton walking away from a church with a Bible in one hand (I don't recall whether or not he was waving it at the camera).
Apparently, after that photo went into wide circulation, Clinton captured a significant portion of the evangelical vote.
My kingdom for a time when evangelists believed democrats could be Christians.
My Band "The Wicked Girls" http://soundcloud.com/the-wicked-girls/sets
I hope you're prepared to hear for the next 7 months how close the race is, every day, any time you turn on your TV or visit a US news site.
Anyway, it would be very nice if Romney didn't get 1114 without the unpledged or whatever they are called.
You know what? I'm not prepared. I'm not D:
...
... though I think it's been running for the past year or so.
That being said, I'd prefer "This is a close race!" over "Obama's going to win in a landslide!". The former will bring Dems to the polls, the latter will not. (of course, it can bring the GOP to the polls as well, hopefully they will still not be happy with Romney come November)
Yeah, she was really awful.
Oh they'll vote for Romney. But, they might not be so prone to campaign for and donate to him. That's the thing - you can always assume a whole bunch of votes, but the trick is to get the certain voters to create more voters for you, at least from what I can see.
The senate and the house is what I am more worried about. Even if Obama has some good coattails it won't be easy.
In the case of Bush 1, I'm not entirely sure, but I think he could potentially be vice-president, but in the event of succession, he could only be president for no greater than 4 years.
I don't think that, if something happened and he had to finish Romney's first term in office, he could run for a second term.
At least Romney cack-handedly tries to engage with the "common man."
Teresa Heinz treated the common man like they were Kyle Reese.
I'd argue we don't know a true best case scenario yet. 6+ months out, its not inconceivable that he wins the entire east coast, the Dakotas and Montana, Missouri, Arizona, hold Indiana.... its just highly unlikely that Obama will get 420 EV. We've mostly been assuming Obama will not perform as well as 08 since there's no Bush to compare him too. But Romney is just as milquetoast and Obama is now the incumbent, which is often really big in driving votes. Every President who has been elected to two(or more) terms in the last 100 years (Wilson qualifies but mostly because his first election was a true 3 way contest) has won by more the second time.
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