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[The Obama Administration] The First 1,561 Days

monikermoniker Registered User regular
So the President has been re-elected.

1024

But, as the saying goes (and if it isn't a saying, I'm gonna to try and make that happen): Winning an election is crossing the starting line, not the finish.

What will be accomplished in the second term? What will Joe Biden do since the Democratic majority in the Senate has expanded so he definitely won't need to break any ties? How often will Speaker Boehner allow single tears to cloud his orange visage?

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    AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
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    monikermoniker Registered User regular
    It seemed like a mix of still election thread along with talking about policy related things. Figured this would give it a good clean break with the electioneering and focus on policy stuff with the 113th Congress.

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    spacekungfumanspacekungfuman Poor and minority-filled Registered User, __BANNED USERS regular
    Thanks for making this thread! I think it makes sense to discuss our expectations for the next term seperate from the election.

    I know there are people saying that with reelection hanging over his head, Obama may have a freer reign, but I don't think that is likely to make much of a difference. He has already been making broad use of his executive powers in making changes like declining to defend DOMA, and I'm not sure that there is much he can do that he hasn't already. I fear this term will be a repeat of the last 2 years, with a hostile House preventing much from occurring.

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    adventfallsadventfalls Why would you wish to know? Registered User regular
    Thanks for making this thread! I think it makes sense to discuss our expectations for the next term seperate from the election.

    I know there are people saying that with reelection hanging over his head, Obama may have a freer reign, but I don't think that is likely to make much of a difference. He has already been making broad use of his executive powers in making changes like declining to defend DOMA, and I'm not sure that there is much he can do that he hasn't already. I fear this term will be a repeat of the last 2 years, with a hostile House preventing much from occurring.

    Even if the House blocks everything the next 4 years, we still got a shitton done in the first two and preventing the misuse of executive power to undo their accomplishments is important.

    NintendoID: AdventFalls 3DS Code: 3454-0237-6080
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    ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited November 2012
    So, four more years. First, I'd just like to say, suck my dick, Benjamin Netanyahu. Hope you end up spending the next four years on the outs.

    This is gonna be the second Obama administration, so they shouldn't be concerned with re-election. They should be looking to get some fucking shit done, goddammit; winning the election was the easy part. Anyway, things I would really like to see get some attention in the second Obama administration:

    *Statehood - Assuming statehood wins in Puerto Rico--and it looks like it probably will--this is going to be an issue for them. At the same time... it's about time we started taking D.C. statehood seriously, as well. These people pay all the same taxes as everyone else, have all the same fucking responsibilities, but don't really get a voice in the government.

    *Marijuana Legalization - With two states voting for legalization this election, it's time to have an honest-to-god discussion about it.

    *Cuba Policy - Fuck Floridians, we don't need you to win.

    *Electoral reform - This is a fucking huge issue. It encompasses everything from voter ID, to the electoral college, to fixing gerrymandering, to restoring convicted felons' voting rights, to fucking shutting down the Republican voter suppression machine. And I mean that. I want some arrests and prosecutions, I want some bitches going to prison.

    *Prison reform - This shit needs to happen. I'd like to see private prisons banned entirely, either phased out or bought out by the feds. Hopefully, marijuana legalization helps with this.

    Thanatos on
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    tuxkamentuxkamen really took this picture. Registered User regular
    7-6-7-6-7-6-7-6.

    That'll work.


    Games: Ad Astra Per Phalla | Choose Your Own Phalla
    Thus, the others all die before tuxkamen dies to the vote. Hence, tuxkamen survives, village victory.
    3DS: 2406-5451-5770
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    MuddBuddMuddBudd Registered User regular
    The first problem he has to deal with is the debt ceiling/fiscal cliff, correct?

    There's no plan, there's no race to be run
    The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
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    AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    MuddBudd wrote: »
    The first problem he has to deal with is the debt ceiling/fiscal cliff, correct?

    Before Christmas. And I want to see the GOP fucking try to stop him.

    Lh96QHG.png
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    ZephiranZephiran Registered User regular
    MuddBudd wrote: »
    The first problem he has to deal with is the debt ceiling/fiscal cliff, correct?

    Before Christmas. And I want to see the GOP fucking try to stop him.

    "CAN YOU SMEEEEEEELLLLL?

    WHAT

    BARRACK

    IS

    COOKIIIIINNNN'?!?!??"


    Shamelessly stolen from Beach.

    I'd consider it an early christmas present to see the President take the collective ass of the GOP House to town. Those fuckers have had a whupass comin' for a loooooong time.

    Alright and in this next scene all the animals have AIDS.

    I got a little excited when I saw your ship.
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    a5ehrena5ehren AtlantaRegistered User regular
    Also time to start agitating for an Amendment to overturn Citizens United.

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    MuddBuddMuddBudd Registered User regular
    Zephiran wrote: »
    MuddBudd wrote: »
    The first problem he has to deal with is the debt ceiling/fiscal cliff, correct?

    Before Christmas. And I want to see the GOP fucking try to stop him.

    "CAN YOU SMEEEEEEELLLLL?

    WHAT

    BARRACK

    IS

    COOKIIIIINNNN'?!?!??"


    Shamelessly stolen from Beach.

    I'd consider it an early christmas present to see the President take the collective ass of the GOP House to town. Those fuckers have had a whupass comin' for a loooooong time.

    Are we so sure they'll cooperate?

    There's no plan, there's no race to be run
    The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
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    ZephiranZephiran Registered User regular
    MuddBudd wrote: »
    Zephiran wrote: »
    MuddBudd wrote: »
    The first problem he has to deal with is the debt ceiling/fiscal cliff, correct?

    Before Christmas. And I want to see the GOP fucking try to stop him.

    "CAN YOU SMEEEEEEELLLLL?

    WHAT

    BARRACK

    IS

    COOKIIIIINNNN'?!?!??"


    Shamelessly stolen from Beach.

    I'd consider it an early christmas present to see the President take the collective ass of the GOP House to town. Those fuckers have had a whupass comin' for a loooooong time.

    Are we so sure they'll cooperate?

    I dunno, I personally don't think they will to any great extent.

    But.

    I'd just really like to see Barry-man rake them over the coals for a bit. He's earned that privilege after the House has been acting like shit-slinging retard monkeys for two years.

    Alright and in this next scene all the animals have AIDS.

    I got a little excited when I saw your ship.
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    AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    MuddBudd wrote: »
    Zephiran wrote: »
    MuddBudd wrote: »
    The first problem he has to deal with is the debt ceiling/fiscal cliff, correct?

    Before Christmas. And I want to see the GOP fucking try to stop him.

    "CAN YOU SMEEEEEEELLLLL?

    WHAT

    BARRACK

    IS

    COOKIIIIINNNN'?!?!??"


    Shamelessly stolen from Beach.

    I'd consider it an early christmas present to see the President take the collective ass of the GOP House to town. Those fuckers have had a whupass comin' for a loooooong time.

    Are we so sure they'll cooperate?

    No I'm not.

    And I want them to try and stop us.

    Lh96QHG.png
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    spacekungfumanspacekungfuman Poor and minority-filled Registered User, __BANNED USERS regular
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.

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    TaramoorTaramoor Storyteller Registered User regular
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.

    Do you honestly believe they're so desperate for power that they're willing to literally end the world as we know it?

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    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    edited November 2012
    Agenda (IMO)

    Immediate
    Filibuster reform: Take actual control of the Senate. Make filibustering physically painful at the very least.
    Debt deal: Trumpet everything you give up, make it really hard to not get a deal done.
    Taxes: Let the Bush tax cuts expire on the most wealthy, if you have to use the Angus King suggestion about tying it to GDP growth (expires once GDP grows another 5% or something)
    Cabinet: Figure out who is leaving, who you are bringing in. If you can send a few GOP Reps to Ambassador to Tahiti or something, awesome.

    Short term:
    Syria: No boots, but at some point a decision must be made
    DREAM: GOP might be willing to deal after they see the exits
    Voting Rights: Might be able to use the annoyance at long lines

    Medium term:
    PR/DC statehood: Long shot but a prod at the GOP- "Look what they won't allow!"
    SCOTUS: Put together the short list, work with the moderate Dems that could conceivably give you problems and wow them with a brilliant liberal thinker or three
    Infrastructure: Roads, bridges, trains. Nation building at home, bring the show on the road and make it more real.
    Afghanistan: Bring our troops home

    ed
    And yes Citizens United Amendment. Universally popular, make conservatives defend.

    PantsB on
    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
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    AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.

    Do you honestly believe they're so desperate for power that they're willing to literally end the world as we know it?

    Yes.

    They've tried it three times in the last year and a half.

    Lh96QHG.png
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    DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.

    I expect a leadership fight in the offing. I'm hoping the Tea Partiers push too hard and get moderate Republicans to tell them to fuck off. We need more recrimination for this election though. Really get that schism going.

    I actually think I need to write a letter to my congressman. He's a non-insane republican. Should make the case that he and like 20 like minded people could have enormous power if they'd be willing to work with the Democrats on anything. While simultaneously reducing the insane fuckers to absolute irrelevance.

    Nod. Get treat. PSN: Quippish
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    PaladinPaladin Registered User regular
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.

    On the other hand, they have no political capital now to counter a president with no campaign or re-election obligations that can veto everything ever. He has no pet bills in the pipeline that he needs, and complete government inactivity means ACA goes as planned and tax cuts expire. The fact that Obama came back from these unemployment numbers in an unprecedented fashion means that the economy is not the important issue anymore. If they decide to take action, they're gambling with the only thing they have left - a house majority, and you don't do that when there's a danger of climbing out of the recession. That's what starts dynasties.

    Marty: The future, it's where you're going?
    Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
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    spacekungfumanspacekungfuman Poor and minority-filled Registered User, __BANNED USERS regular
    Paladin wrote: »
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.

    On the other hand, they have no political capital now to counter a president with no campaign or re-election obligations that can veto everything ever. He has no pet bills in the pipeline that he needs, and complete government inactivity means ACA goes as planned and tax cuts expire. The fact that Obama came back from these unemployment numbers in an unprecedented fashion means that the economy is not the important issue anymore. If they decide to take action, they're gambling with the only thing they have left - a house majority, and you don't do that when there's a danger of climbing out of the recession. That's what starts dynasties.

    Inaction on the debt ceiling means the government shuts down. The resulting chaos would require that the dems work with the gop in the house, otherwise nothing would get done. Decisions would need to be made about what programs to cut, and the house would be part of it. In a way, letting the government burn down around them is the best powerplay for the GOP, as long as everything gets fixed relatively quickly, so that people have moved on bu 2014.

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    OremLKOremLK Registered User regular
    edited November 2012
    Their individual seats are stake. Some will break party lines this time. They're on the precipice of an indefinite Dem majority if they don't sit down and figure out how to deal.

    OremLK on
    My zombie survival life simulator They Don't Sleep is out now on Steam if you want to check it out.
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    jdarksunjdarksun Struggler VARegistered User regular
    Paladin wrote: »
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.
    On the other hand, they have no political capital now to counter a president with no campaign or re-election obligations that can veto everything ever. He has no pet bills in the pipeline that he needs, and complete government inactivity means ACA goes as planned and tax cuts expire. The fact that Obama came back from these unemployment numbers in an unprecedented fashion means that the economy is not the important issue anymore. If they decide to take action, they're gambling with the only thing they have left - a house majority, and you don't do that when there's a danger of climbing out of the recession. That's what starts dynasties.
    Inaction on the debt ceiling means the government shuts down. The resulting chaos would require that the dems work with the gop in the house, otherwise nothing would get done. Decisions would need to be made about what programs to cut, and the house would be part of it. In a way, letting the government burn down around them is the best powerplay for the GOP, as long as everything gets fixed relatively quickly, so that people have moved on bu 2014.
    There is no "moving on" by 2014 in that scenario, because you'd still be looking at double-digit unemployment at that point.

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    AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    Paladin wrote: »
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.

    On the other hand, they have no political capital now to counter a president with no campaign or re-election obligations that can veto everything ever. He has no pet bills in the pipeline that he needs, and complete government inactivity means ACA goes as planned and tax cuts expire. The fact that Obama came back from these unemployment numbers in an unprecedented fashion means that the economy is not the important issue anymore. If they decide to take action, they're gambling with the only thing they have left - a house majority, and you don't do that when there's a danger of climbing out of the recession. That's what starts dynasties.

    Inaction on the debt ceiling means the government shuts down. The resulting chaos would require that the dems work with the gop in the house, otherwise nothing would get done. Decisions would need to be made about what programs to cut, and the house would be part of it. In a way, letting the government burn down around them is the best powerplay for the GOP, as long as everything gets fixed relatively quickly, so that people have moved on bu 2014.

    If they do this we will have a depression. World wide.

    And the Republicans will be remembered as less responsible versions of Nero.

    Lh96QHG.png
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    spacekungfumanspacekungfuman Poor and minority-filled Registered User, __BANNED USERS regular
    jdarksun wrote: »
    Paladin wrote: »
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.
    On the other hand, they have no political capital now to counter a president with no campaign or re-election obligations that can veto everything ever. He has no pet bills in the pipeline that he needs, and complete government inactivity means ACA goes as planned and tax cuts expire. The fact that Obama came back from these unemployment numbers in an unprecedented fashion means that the economy is not the important issue anymore. If they decide to take action, they're gambling with the only thing they have left - a house majority, and you don't do that when there's a danger of climbing out of the recession. That's what starts dynasties.
    Inaction on the debt ceiling means the government shuts down. The resulting chaos would require that the dems work with the gop in the house, otherwise nothing would get done. Decisions would need to be made about what programs to cut, and the house would be part of it. In a way, letting the government burn down around them is the best powerplay for the GOP, as long as everything gets fixed relatively quickly, so that people have moved on bu 2014.
    There is no "moving on" by 2014 in that scenario, because you'd still be looking at double-digit unemployment at that point.

    It depends on how everything shakes out. If they take a hardline and win concessions in exchange for raising it, they have made effective use of this one place where they still have power. If the game of chicken ends with both cars crashing into each other, the Dems will have to agree to work with the house or let the government collapse on their watch. Basically, the GOP has less to lose (especially since a lot of the crazies would probably love to see the whole thing collapse.)

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    electricitylikesmeelectricitylikesme Registered User regular
    Paladin wrote: »
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.

    On the other hand, they have no political capital now to counter a president with no campaign or re-election obligations that can veto everything ever. He has no pet bills in the pipeline that he needs, and complete government inactivity means ACA goes as planned and tax cuts expire. The fact that Obama came back from these unemployment numbers in an unprecedented fashion means that the economy is not the important issue anymore. If they decide to take action, they're gambling with the only thing they have left - a house majority, and you don't do that when there's a danger of climbing out of the recession. That's what starts dynasties.

    Inaction on the debt ceiling means the government shuts down. The resulting chaos would require that the dems work with the gop in the house, otherwise nothing would get done. Decisions would need to be made about what programs to cut, and the house would be part of it. In a way, letting the government burn down around them is the best powerplay for the GOP, as long as everything gets fixed relatively quickly, so that people have moved on bu 2014.

    If they do this we will have a depression. World wide.

    And the Republicans will be remembered as less responsible versions of Nero.

    Yeah I can't see how there's a relatively quick fix on the debt ceiling not being raised. The consequences as I understand it would be staggering, if only because the the theoretical political unreliability of the US congress would become a practical reality to it's debtors. The only thing that could be done to fix it would be to get rid of the concept entirely and forever, and even then, in the future you'd see markets tremble when some GOP idiot started talking about bringing it back.

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    spacekungfumanspacekungfuman Poor and minority-filled Registered User, __BANNED USERS regular
    Put another way, you don't want to give crazy people the ability to set off a doomsday device.

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    jdarksunjdarksun Struggler VARegistered User regular
    It depends on how everything shakes out. If they take a hardline and win concessions in exchange for raising it, they have made effective use of this one place where they still have power. If the game of chicken ends with both cars crashing into each other, the Dems will have to agree to work with the house or let the government collapse on their watch. Basically, the GOP has less to lose (especially since a lot of the crazies would probably love to see the whole thing collapse.)
    Do you really think the President and Democrats in the House can't find ~40 members of the GOP who are coming up for reelection and would rather look good (like Chris Christie) than watch the world burn?

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    Harry DresdenHarry Dresden Registered User regular
    Thanks for making this thread! I think it makes sense to discuss our expectations for the next term seperate from the election.

    I know there are people saying that with reelection hanging over his head, Obama may have a freer reign, but I don't think that is likely to make much of a difference. He has already been making broad use of his executive powers in making changes like declining to defend DOMA, and I'm not sure that there is much he can do that he hasn't already. I fear this term will be a repeat of the last 2 years, with a hostile House preventing much from occurring.

    The difference is now Obama has nothing to lose.
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.

    So business as usual then?
    Paladin wrote: »
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.

    On the other hand, they have no political capital now to counter a president with no campaign or re-election obligations that can veto everything ever. He has no pet bills in the pipeline that he needs, and complete government inactivity means ACA goes as planned and tax cuts expire. The fact that Obama came back from these unemployment numbers in an unprecedented fashion means that the economy is not the important issue anymore. If they decide to take action, they're gambling with the only thing they have left - a house majority, and you don't do that when there's a danger of climbing out of the recession. That's what starts dynasties.

    Inaction on the debt ceiling means the government shuts down. The resulting chaos would require that the dems work with the gop in the house, otherwise nothing would get done. Decisions would need to be made about what programs to cut, and the house would be part of it. In a way, letting the government burn down around them is the best powerplay for the GOP, as long as everything gets fixed relatively quickly, so that people have moved on bu 2014.

    America needs to be expanding, not cutting. Austerity isn't the answer here or in the EU. This is especially needed since the vulnerable will need those services now more than ever.
    Paladin wrote: »
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.

    On the other hand, they have no political capital now to counter a president with no campaign or re-election obligations that can veto everything ever. He has no pet bills in the pipeline that he needs, and complete government inactivity means ACA goes as planned and tax cuts expire. The fact that Obama came back from these unemployment numbers in an unprecedented fashion means that the economy is not the important issue anymore. If they decide to take action, they're gambling with the only thing they have left - a house majority, and you don't do that when there's a danger of climbing out of the recession. That's what starts dynasties.

    Inaction on the debt ceiling means the government shuts down. The resulting chaos would require that the dems work with the gop in the house, otherwise nothing would get done. Decisions would need to be made about what programs to cut, and the house would be part of it. In a way, letting the government burn down around them is the best powerplay for the GOP, as long as everything gets fixed relatively quickly, so that people have moved on bu 2014.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efHCdKb5UWc

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    PaladinPaladin Registered User regular
    If the republicans shut down the government, then there will be a lot of seat switching the next election cycle - congress hasn't done anything to improve their approval level since its record low recently. The blue red shirt freshman were already shaken off in 2010. That leaves the president and the red red shirts to take the blame, and only one of those groups has a "get out of re-election free" card.

    They may get what they want in the short term, but they will bluewash the federal government. Given that all the major ultraconservative players have been defanged, I think it's more likely that they change tactics to something else.

    Marty: The future, it's where you're going?
    Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
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    SyphonBlueSyphonBlue The studying beaver That beaver sure loves studying!Registered User regular
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.

    Do you honestly believe they're so desperate for power that they're willing to literally end the world as we know it?

    Without question.

    LxX6eco.jpg
    PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
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    AstaerethAstaereth In the belly of the beastRegistered User regular
    I think the number one thing the administration can do going forward is abandon the policy of not setting policy. By which I mean they can't vote Obama out and they can't hate him any harder; he should be setting the agenda, personally, loudly, publicly, and then shoving it through Congress with a battering ram. None of this "let the Democrats in Congress come up with legislation they think is good and I'll endorse it" stuff.

    Stuff I want to see progress on over the next two years:

    -Voting reform
    -Dismantling DOMA
    -Halting the downward trend in government employment
    -ending the wars: Afghanistan, drugs, women, terror
    -Drawing down the TSA and coming up with intelligent security (get Bruce Schneier to run it!)
    -Immigration reform--nail down the Hispanic votes as Dems now and they'll stay that way for a generation. Blue Texas here we come.
    -Citizens United amendment
    -Copyright reform (yeah, I know, not bloody likely)

    ACsTqqK.jpg
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    SchrodingerSchrodinger Registered User regular
    Joe Biden seemed strangely absent in the first term, when Obama was still being a scared little kitten. He commented on the ACA, pushed Obama on gay marriage, but he didn't have much attack dog status until it was time to campaign again.

    I hope that the second term has a lot more "release the Biden."

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    PaladinPaladin Registered User regular
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.

    Do you honestly believe they're so desperate for power that they're willing to literally end the world as we know it?

    Without question.

    I wouldn't make that bet on intrade

    Marty: The future, it's where you're going?
    Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
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    jdarksunjdarksun Struggler VARegistered User regular
    Not enough environment, environment, environment. Needs to be issue #2, right behind equality for all.

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    FeralFeral MEMETICHARIZARD interior crocodile alligator ⇔ ǝɹʇɐǝɥʇ ǝᴉʌoɯ ʇǝloɹʌǝɥɔ ɐ ǝʌᴉɹp ᴉRegistered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    So the President has been re-elected.

    But, as the saying goes (and if it isn't a saying, I'm gonna to try and make that happen): Winning an election is crossing the starting line, not the finish.

    What will be accomplished in the second term?

    Step 1: Apologize to the Muslim world and invite Muslims to come to the US
    Step 2: Amnesty for illegal immigrants, turning all visiting Muslims into citizens
    Step 3: Appoint Islamic qadis to the Supreme Court and federal courts
    Step 4: Sharia Law

    every person who doesn't like an acquired taste always seems to think everyone who likes it is faking it. it should be an official fallacy.

    the "no true scotch man" fallacy.
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    dlinfinitidlinfiniti Registered User regular
    terrible
    your plan only has 4 points
    everyone knows that the best plans have 5

    AAAAA!!! PLAAAYGUUU!!!!
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    ronyaronya Arrrrrf. the ivory tower's basementRegistered User regular
    - strategize re: debt ceiling. Who in the House is most liable to bend?

    - start picking scotus candidates. the Senate is Democrat though, so short of someone getting shot again, the difficulty is identifying reliable candidates.

    aRkpc.gif
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    FeralFeral MEMETICHARIZARD interior crocodile alligator ⇔ ǝɹʇɐǝɥʇ ǝᴉʌoɯ ʇǝloɹʌǝɥɔ ɐ ǝʌᴉɹp ᴉRegistered User regular
    dlinfiniti wrote: »
    terrible
    your plan only has 4 points
    everyone knows that the best plans have 5

    Step 5: Outlaw Christianity.


    There. Better?

    every person who doesn't like an acquired taste always seems to think everyone who likes it is faking it. it should be an official fallacy.

    the "no true scotch man" fallacy.
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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    a5ehren wrote: »
    Also time to start agitating for an Amendment to overturn Citizens United.

    Already ahead of you - Montana Initiative 166, which passed handily, in part pushes the state to move for and support an anti-corporate personhood amendment.

    Yes, we just made "Fuck Citizens United" our official state position.

    XBL: Nox Aeternum / PSN: NoxAeternum / NN:NoxAeternum / Steam: noxaeternum
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    TaramoorTaramoor Storyteller Registered User regular
    Paladin wrote: »
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Well, the big concern I have on the debt ceiling is they are like a caged animal now. They know they didn't get the senate or white house, and they also know its at least 2 years before they have a prayer of controlling the senate, so they don't have much incentive to be cooperative. I worry that they will (correctly) identify that this is Thr most leverage they will probably have for the next 4 years, and will use it to exact tax concessions. At the least, I expect them to demand kicking the bush tax cuts further down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if they also demand that the increase in Medicare taxes next year also be delayed, and that corporate tax rates be dropped by at least 10 percent.

    Do you honestly believe they're so desperate for power that they're willing to literally end the world as we know it?

    Without question.

    I wouldn't make that bet on intrade

    I totally would!

    If you win, you win.

    If you lose, the Dollar becomes meaningless so you don't have to pay out!

This discussion has been closed.