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We all live in a [Russian submarine]

EchoEcho ski-bapba-dapModerator mod
edited October 2014 in Debate and/or Discourse
So here are some news from Sweden.

Thursday, October 16
  • A Russian distress signal is intercepted by Swedish SIGINT.

Friday, October 17
  • At around noon, an "underwater vehicle" is detected deep inside Swedish waters and Swedish military deploys assets to investigate.
  • Swedish SIGINT intercepts a new encrypted transmittion on a Russian frequency, coming from the Stockholm archipelago. The signal destination is determined to be Kaliningrad, where Russia has a naval air base.
  • A sketchy-looking Russian-owned oil tanker, the NS Concord, suddenly parks in the middle of the Baltic Sea. It's generally suspected that this is a ship equipped for deploying and supporting small underwater landing craft.

Saturday, October 18
  • Swedish media starts reporting on the NS Concord. Very soon after this it starts to move slowly to the east, but still staying in the vicinity. Their logged destination is Denmark.

Sunday, October 19
  • A Russian science wessel -- sorry, vessel, the Professor Logachev, left St Petersburg on Saturday evening, setting a course for Stockholm at maximum speed. The Professor Logachev is built for underwater exploration and mapping, has capacity for arctic diving and is frequently on loan to other nations for science purposes. At 14:30 local time it was spotted south of Åbo in international waters. The ship's owners have been contacted to ask about the ship's purpose and destination, without answers. It is currently being followed by three Dutch navy ships - the frigate Evertsen, the corvette Zeeland and the replenishment ship Amsterdam.

Swedish response
  • Sweden currently has a poor submarine-hunting capability -- that part of the military was severely scaled down after the Soviet Union fell.
  • There is strong evidence that Russia has converted fishing boats/oil tankers to deploy small underwater vehicles for inserting troops.
  • Russia has a long history of poking around inside national waters along the Baltic Sea. See the story of U 137 from 1981 when a Soviet sub ran aground inside Swedish waters.

Echo on
«13

Posts

  • TraceTrace GNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam We Registered User regular
    We all live on a Red Submarine.

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    In tangent with Russian planes constantly playing the "I'm not touching you" game, I see the submarine as part of that game.

  • The EnderThe Ender Registered User regular
    Experts see it as very likely that Sweden will fire upon the underwater vehicle as soon as it is located.

    ...Which experts?

    With Love and Courage
  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    In tangent with Russian planes constantly playing the "I'm not touching you" game, I see the submarine as part of that game.

    Yeah, there's been a lot of that lately. We've had a few cases of Russian planes inside Swedish airspace a few times, and they've been following Swedish SIGINT planes over international waters. We recently had one that followed like ten meters to the side, helpfully tilting to show its missiles.

  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    The Ender wrote: »
    Experts see it as very likely that Sweden will fire upon the underwater vehicle as soon as it is located.

    ...Which experts?

    Ex-military commenters. I assume the guy that did sub-hunting in the 80s knows a few things.

  • davidsdurionsdavidsdurions Your Trusty Meatshield Panhandle NebraskaRegistered User regular
  • surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    Echo wrote: »
    In tangent with Russian planes constantly playing the "I'm not touching you" game, I see the submarine as part of that game.

    Yeah, there's been a lot of that lately. We've had a few cases of Russian planes inside Swedish airspace a few times, and they've been following Swedish SIGINT planes over international waters. We recently had one that followed like ten meters to the side, helpfully tilting to show its missiles.

    thats the plane equivalent of unsolicited dick picks

    report to the un!

    obF2Wuw.png
  • durandal4532durandal4532 Registered User regular
    I don't even understand the person-to-person dick waving.

    Do you get orders from up high to remind people that every single military in the world has the capacity to down an unarmed plane?

    Take a moment to donate what you can to Critical Resistance and Black Lives Matter.
  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    People have reported a man dressed in black with a backpack "acting suspiciously". Säpo (Swedish security police) and MUST (Military intelligence and security service) have deployed to the area to search.



    Commenters named two likely reasons for the Russians to snoop here: a Spetsnaz drill for blowing up Swedish communications infrastructure, or the sub being there to listen in on the Dutch ships in the NATO exercise taking place recently, to record the noise from the ships, which is way easier to do in the Baltic compared to hanging out outside of Amsterdam with its massive ship traffic.

  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    A Swedish professor in signals intelligence does some theorycrafting. He sees is as most likely that it's a Russian operation (well, duh), but the op might already be finished, or had unintended activity.

    Since there's so much information about this in Swedish media, he sees it as an intentional military leak from Sweden- a psyop to stress Russia and make them react. The NS Concord started moving to the east almost immediately after Swedish media started paying attention to it.

    He also sees it as possible that Russia manufactured the situation to test Swedish military reaction times.

  • TraceTrace GNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam We Registered User regular
    I'll take the wingnut title and ask the obvious.

    What are the chances Russia's thinking about pulling a Ukraine of some sort?

  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    Trace wrote: »
    I'll take the wingnut title and ask the obvious.

    What are the chances Russia's thinking about pulling a Ukraine of some sort?

    Against Sweden? Really unlikely. Sweden isn't a NATO member, but our neighbor Norway is. And Sweden practically has a golden VIP guest card for NATO.

  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    The "underwater vessel" is probably something along these lines. Swedish military has denied that they're hunting an adult, fully-grown submarine.

    B0Uc2_KIAAAI0X4.jpg:large

  • davidsdurionsdavidsdurions Your Trusty Meatshield Panhandle NebraskaRegistered User regular
    Is it like April Fools' Day in Sweden?

  • rockrngerrockrnger Registered User regular
    Here's hoping no one gets killed over something this dumb.

  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    Another military expert dudefella comments on Russian language: they denied submarines, but Russia has a history of being very picky about the definition of a sub. That's not a sub pictured above.

  • QuidQuid Definitely not a banana Registered User regular
    Echo wrote: »
    The Ender wrote: »
    Experts see it as very likely that Sweden will fire upon the underwater vehicle as soon as it is located.

    ...Which experts?

    Ex-military commenters. I assume the guy that did sub-hunting in the 80s knows a few things.

    As someone also familiar with the general concept I don't find it likely unless the Swedish government is more touchy than most about this sort of thing.

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Echo wrote: »
    Another military expert dudefella comments on Russian language: they denied submarines, but Russia has a history of being very picky about the definition of a sub. That's not a sub pictured above.

    This year's shenanigans have shown that Russia is all about semantics.

  • see317see317 Registered User regular
    Echo wrote: »
    Another military expert dudefella comments on Russian language: they denied submarines, but Russia has a history of being very picky about the definition of a sub. That's not a sub pictured above.

    Well, it's obviously not underwater, so how could it be a submarine?
    It's clearly some kind of prototype tank.

  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    see317 wrote: »
    Echo wrote: »
    Another military expert dudefella comments on Russian language: they denied submarines, but Russia has a history of being very picky about the definition of a sub. That's not a sub pictured above.

    Well, it's obviously not underwater, so how could it be a submarine?
    It's clearly some kind of prototype tank.

    Russia did actually have underwater vehicles with tank treads that crept along the ocean floor...

  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    Some random blogger's wild speculation that actually sounds really plausible: they were here to put/repair wiretapping equipment on underwater cables.

  • ScooterScooter Registered User regular
    I'm still confused about this claim that they'll sink any Russian submarine they find. Surely subs are sailing through national waters all the time?

  • ShadowhopeShadowhope Baa. Registered User regular
    Echo wrote: »
    Another military expert dudefella comments on Russian language: they denied submarines, but Russia has a history of being very picky about the definition of a sub. That's not a sub pictured above.

    This year's shenanigans have shown that Russia is all about semantics.

    Definitely.

    I'm sure Putin will understand that if there is a damaged sub, it should be taken to the nearest port, for safety's sake. And then, while at that Swedish port, it should be very thoroughly examined, so that the cause of the problem can be definitively identified. Every system should be inspected and documented; you never know where problems can come from. Only once the Swedes are fully satisfied in the condition of the sub and that it would be safe to return it to Russia should it be taken out of port.

    OK, maybe not.

    Civics is not a consumer product that you can ignore because you don’t like the options presented.
  • SparvySparvy Registered User regular
    Scooter wrote: »
    I'm still confused about this claim that they'll sink any Russian submarine they find. Surely subs are sailing through national waters all the time?

    Mines and sinkbombs were used to hunt unknown subs in the 80's

    But that was the cold war so who knows

  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    If anything, the Spetsnaz on board (because who else gets these toys? Also Kaliningrad is a known base of operations for them) will blow the sub themselves and hide on land, waiting for support from sleeper agents that are known to exist in Sweden. The last thing Russia wants is for Sweden to get its hands on the sub in working condition.

    It's also the Stockholm archipelago. Lots of empty summer houses out there.

    Apparently Russia has been throwing tons of money at underwater military tech in recent years. This vessel might be a Triton-NN, which became available to marine Spetsnaz units 4-5 years ago.

  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    edited October 2014
    Swedish military doing a press conference in 15minutes.

    More military dudefella speculating: they were practicing approaching our underwater detection thingamabobs, in practice for actual war. He says they train on Sweden first before training on NATO bases.

    Same guy says Russian submersibles like the Triton-NN have been in Swedish waters for five years and the Swedish military has known about it, but hasn't reacted, and that for some reason they decided to react this time.

    Echo on
  • QuidQuid Definitely not a banana Registered User regular
    Scooter wrote: »
    I'm still confused about this claim that they'll sink any Russian submarine they find. Surely subs are sailing through national waters all the time?

    If a sub of any kind is operating in national waters they'd presumably be known to the local government and also give a heads on where they'd be for the sake of safety.

    A quick look at wikipedia says the kilo Alrosa was relocated to the Baltic fleet back in 2011. The kilos are already spectacularly difficult to find but that particular submarine is equipped with pump jet propulsion instead of a propeller which allows for quieter operation and, depending on the set up, to hover in place.

    If there's a sub there I'd put my money on that one. And given it's a kilo I'd also put my money on Sweden not finding it unless that distress signal was from it being damaged.

  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    Quid wrote: »
    If there's a sub there I'd put my money on that one. And given it's a kilo I'd also put my money on Sweden not finding it unless that distress signal was from it being damaged.

    Yeah, Swedish ability to hunt subs is crap right now. I'll bet we see a sudden defense budget escalation.

    The Stockholm archipelago is also really horrible to find anything in - very uneven, lots of crevices a small submersible can hide in.

  • The EnderThe Ender Registered User regular
    The training thing sounds pretty plausible (laying down hard lines for wiretapping doesn't seem all that practical to me, nor like the sort of job you'd send a submarine out to do).


    Russia's military 'training' programs are just the fucking worst.

    With Love and Courage
  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    Press conference going on. I'll give a summary later, but so far they've stated that they treat this as an intelligence-gathering operation.

  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    edited October 2014
    • The military so far treats this as an intelligence-gathering operation, not an active submarine hunt. Marine troops are searching the coast and islands, and are authorized to fire for effect. (use more than warning shots, in Swedish military lingo.)
    • It's "likely" (the second highest degree after positive confirmation) that it was "foreign underwater activity". It's a military guy and as expected they're playing by the books, and unlike media they won't speculate about the nationality without hard evidence.
    • There have been visual sightings at three different locations in the Stockholm archipelago.
    • They'll release a photo one of the witnesses took.
    • He elaborated about the difference between an intelligence-gathering operation and an actual submarine hunt. For a submarine hunt, he listed several operative requirements that the Swedish military has discontinued. I guess that'll come up in the next defense budget...
    • They have several "reliable" witnesses. They interviewed them and had them make sketches of what they saw, and decided to act on that information.
    • What they're looking for can range in size from a diver using a very small "moped-like" vehicle, up to a submersible craft up to ten meters in size.

    Here's a shitty pic of a shitty pic (photo of the screen at the press conference). The object was visible on the surface and then sank below the surface.

    yITdyJP.jpg

    edit: less shitty pic.

    ZTNXL7Z.jpg

    Echo on
  • SparvySparvy Registered User regular
    That is some god tier "point-camera-at-wrong-object-and-get-fucked-by-auto-focus" level photography

  • ComradebotComradebot Lord of Dinosaurs Houston, TXRegistered User regular
    Wait wait wait... Sweden, one of like... two nations (that people care about) in all of Europe to "sit out" that whole "WWII business", has folks saying "Yeah, we'll shoot at that sub if we see it!"

    I don't buy it. I buy that it's chest thumping in an attempt to stand up to Russia and their Cold War 2.0 shenanigans, nothing more.

    Which I think is reinforced by the whole "Yeah, we've known about it sorta thing." I don't think Sweden would dare fire on a Russian military vessel: Russia has a scary bloated military and the last time Sweden was a major player in a sizable conflict, James Madison was President of the US. Also, not in NATO and we've seen how well that played out for the Ukraine.

    What they are doing is sending an international message that they're sick of this shit and letting everyone know that Russia is doing shady stuff off the waters of one of the most peaceful, unoffensive nations in the entire world. Which I guess will lead to... more economic sanctions if they don't stop dicking around, or whatever it is we're doing to Russia that Putin seemingly doesn't give two craps about?

  • ComradebotComradebot Lord of Dinosaurs Houston, TXRegistered User regular
    Also, really Russia? You don't even share a border with Sweden! Surely you could limit your underwater hypothetical war scenarios in Scandinavia to like... Finland.

  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    One commenter made the good point that if you want to do military dickwaving, you buzz with some bomb planes. Not with a small submersible.

    The civilian sightings probably made the military decide that it was time to put the foot down.

  • silence1186silence1186 Character shields down! As a wingmanRegistered User regular
    Every time I see a new thread about Russia, I wonder when it will get the [WW3] tag.

  • Kipling217Kipling217 Registered User regular
    The current Swedish National defense policy is a Small Yellow Post-It Note that says "Call Nato".

    They have really let themselves go in the last 20 years.

    Any talk about violent action is talk for the cameras. Its a replay of :"Vår beredskap är god" (Our [state of] readiness is good) from 1939

    The sky was full of stars, every star an exploding ship. One of ours.
  • EchoEcho ski-bap ba-dapModerator mod
    Kipling217 wrote: »
    Any talk about violent action is talk for the cameras. Its a replay of :"Vår beredskap är god" (Our [state of] readiness is good) from 1939

    "Vi har förmågan att möta upp", as the current minister of defense just put it. "We have the capability to muster".

    I'm doubtful.

  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Every time I see a new thread about Russia, I wonder when it will get the [WW3] tag.

    Hopefully, never. By never, I hope it doesn't even get the [WW4] tag either.

    So besides this likely prompting Sweden to start putting more money towards their defense capabilities. Could this also make them start considering joining NATO? Sure they have a golden VIP card with NATO, which is better than like the 1 hour guest pass that Ukraine, may or not have or had. It's just things didn't go well for Ukraine, partly because no one really had any treaty obligations to help them out against Russia militarily.

  • HevachHevach Registered User regular
    So, I'm wondering... Has Russia started randomly ramming other people's ships yet? Because I'm about two spots away from a full clear on my Cold War Bingo card here.

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