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US and China Agree To Emissions Reductions; First Such Agreement by China

Link to the story.

Details:
As part of the agreement, Mr. Obama announced that the United States would emit 26 percent to 28 percent less carbon in 2025 than it did in 2005. That is double the pace of reduction it targeted for the period from 2005 to 2020.

China’s pledge to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030, if not sooner, is even more remarkable. To reach that goal, Mr. Xi pledged that so-called clean energy sources, like solar power and windmills, would account for 20 percent of China’s total energy production by 2030.

Administration officials acknowledged that Mr. Obama could face opposition to his plans from a Republican-controlled Congress. While the agreement with China needs no congressional ratification, lawmakers could try to roll back Mr. Obama’s initiatives, undermining the United States’ ability to meet the new reduction targets.

James Fallows has some analysis.

The lack of ratification required is obviously a big deal, considering the dysfunction in our Senate. But this seems like a big deal, both materially and in the symbolic ways Fallows points out.

Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.

Posts

  • CorehealerCorehealer The Apothecary The softer edge of the universe.Registered User regular
    Any step, however symbolic, towards greater reduction of carbon emissions and commitments to combat climate change and global warming is a good thing. Just need to watch for ratification and the reactions of various interest groups in both countries now.

    I just have to imagine that the ongoing air pollution problems in Beijing, including during this summit, was no small part of the calculus involved here as well.

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  • hsuhsu Registered User regular
    I'm visiting China right now, and China is definitely doing this out of self interest.
    Every city I've been to so far is smog filled, like how the USA was back 50 years ago.
    This has jack shit to do with the USA, and everything to do with cleaning up their smog problems.
    Hell, I have never seen the sun nor a blue sky in the fortnight I've been here.
    Not in coastal Hong Kong, not in rural Danxia mountain, not in Shenzhen, not in Guangzhou.

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  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    A step is a start, but..capping emissions in 2030 is pushing into too little too late.

  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    The bigger take away is that China is willing to play ball.

    Because this never passes a Senate vote and everyone knows that.

    But China has never signed on to the idea that it has to reduce emissions before.

    This is huge in that sense and a very good sign.

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  • CantidoCantido Registered User regular
    edited November 2014
    I see it in Korea. Every day, I check my phone to find out whether the fog I see is actual fog or if it's pollution. It always gets really bad in the spring, when the wind brings in Yellow Dust (the same pollution mixed with Gobi Desert sand), making people sick and caking cars in yellow shit.

    Korea's weather is psycotic and deadly from December to September. Only Autumn is pleasant.

    Cantido on
    3DS Friendcode 5413-1311-3767
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    The bigger take away is that China is willing to play ball.

    Because this never passes a Senate vote and everyone knows that.

    But China has never signed on to the idea that it has to reduce emissions before.

    This is huge in that sense and a very good sign.

    It's technically non-binding and doesn't require ratification. Which means a GOP President in 2017 can fuck it up, but that's a given anyway.

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    GOO victory in 2016 more or less means miss Miami goodbye

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  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    GOP victory in 2016 more or less means miss Miami goodbye
    Honestly we might be past that point as it is.

  • MillMill Registered User regular
    As I understand it, Florida's woes with rising sea levels is kind of three fold. There's the obvious one of, if the level rises enough it will submerge large chunks of the state. Then there is not the not so obvious issue of higher sea level just making tropical systems worse, when it comes to flooding. Finally, there is the often overlooked issue of sizable chunks of the state sitting on limestone, which sea water kind of eats away at and means areas that one would think are safe from rising sea levels are actually being impacted directly. In short, I guess this is a long way of saying that I kind of think Miami is fucked regardless of what we do at this point.

    BTW, is this going to be a thread about the US/China deal or can we talk about other things. I kind of want to bitch about how Dominion power and Virginia's Legislator are fucking the state over on some many levels when it comes to energy generation.

  • JarsJars Registered User regular
    maybe now the "we can't do anything because china won't" talking point will be dead

    pfff hahahah

  • tinwhiskerstinwhiskers Registered User regular
    It's non-binding, so I guess the details don't matter that much but plateau in 2030 is really vague.

    Take for example the 20% renewable pledge. With just 5% yearly growth, China will be producing roughly 207% of the CO2 then that it does now. So even that 20% renewables target means China will still be producing ~165% of what it produces now. Even if the US reached 0 CO2 emissions it wouldn't quite cancel out the Chinese growth.

    I've said it before in all the climate change threads, if we expect to mitigate climate change at all we have to be looking at some sort of geo/climate engineering, because reducing CO2 emissions at this point just isn't going to happen/do enough.

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  • FeralFeral MEMETICHARIZARD interior crocodile alligator ⇔ ǝɹʇɐǝɥʇ ǝᴉʌoɯ ʇǝloɹʌǝɥɔ ɐ ǝʌᴉɹp ᴉRegistered User regular
    Does 20% of production include oil imports?

    I'm sure we don't actually know yet but it seems like a relevant question.

    every person who doesn't like an acquired taste always seems to think everyone who likes it is faking it. it should be an official fallacy.

    the "no true scotch man" fallacy.
  • MillMill Registered User regular
    edited November 2014
    Best a single state actor to could hope for to influence a global climate change initiate with every other fucker dragging their feet. Would be to pretty much create alternate energy technology that is cheaper to overall, when compared to the existing fossil fuel-powered generators. Assuming shitheads like the Koch Brothers don't have enough of a government bought out to keep such technology out, it becomes easier to get some of the lazy fuckers on board when you show them the better tech that is beating their shitty fossil fuel stuff and offer to sell it to them.

    Though I think the bigger issue in the US, is that we have numerous shitty companies owned by the Koch Brothers or like Virginia's Dominion, that are just to fucking full of shit, that they go out of their way to prevent any sort of progress. I'm not sure how much of it is shitty spite and how much of it is just fucking idiocy on their parts. If they are suppose to be so smart, given that the data is starting to show solar and wind are profitable, they should be getting in on the game instead of interfering.

    Edit: Here's a fun little editorial where the Virginia State Corporation Commission gets ripped a new one for a really shitty report. The SCC is a pretty good example of Virginia's ethics issues and a great example of why people should be wary of major corporation that opposes alternative energy because I assure you most aren't going to do so on the pretext of reality.

    Mill on
  • DiplominatorDiplominator Hardcore Porg Registered User regular
    This is ridiculous.

    When.

    When is the GOP going to finally admit that climate change is real? It seems like they'll have to eventually. First, I mean, it kind of manifestly is. Second of all, the longer they don't, the longer they have to resort to this sort of incoherent nonsense.

    See if you can square these beliefs:

    1. The agreement means that China has to reduce its carbon emissions too slowly.
    2. Carbon emissions do not contribute to global warming.

    I would be far more likely to consider the GOP's views on a lot of other issues if they weren't so committed to slamming the President at the expense of things like facts and reality. Well, the whole screwing over the planet to benefit energy companies thing, too.

    Sorry for bringing domestic politics into an international thread, but this shit...ugh.

    When.

  • CantidoCantido Registered User regular
    edited November 2014
    When young people and liberals put away the Call of Duty and vote. But thats for the voting or elections thread.

    EDIT- Or when Jesus comes back and He tags them with bearing false witness and overall destroying his planet?

    Cantido on
    3DS Friendcode 5413-1311-3767
  • KrieghundKrieghund Registered User regular
    GOO victory in 2016 more or less means miss Miami goodbye

    Probably won't just be Miami. I'm guessing anything that borders the Everglades is going to sink. So, basically all of South Florida. Or, the biggest blue parts. Also, some of the most profitable tourist and seasonal areas of the state.

  • WyvernWyvern Registered User regular
    This is ridiculous.

    When.

    When is the GOP going to finally admit that climate change is real? It seems like they'll have to eventually.
    Why? If Florida is consumed by the sea, a lot of them will be perfectly willing to say it's just God's punishment for, I don't know, homosexuality or something. Even if they believed in global warming, they'd pretend they didn't for as long as it's profitable.

    There's also the option of eventually admitting it exists but claiming it's too late to do anything and we're better off doubling down and exploiting the post-apocalypse economy as much as possible (while selling the high-altitude real estate they somehow had the miraculous foresight to invest in ten years ago).

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  • chrisnlchrisnl Registered User regular
    So the GOP response boils down to this being a "job killing" policy, right? I wouldn't be surprised if they also brought up the fact that India isn't involved in this agreement so it doesn't matter anyway.

    And really, is China pledging to stop increasing their carbon emissions by 2030 really that impressive? I mean it's great that China has at least come to any sort of pollution agreement, but before this particular one was made, when was their carbon output predicted to peak? It wouldn't surprise me if it was within a year or two of 2030 anyway.

    The cynic in me believes that China just agreed to something that was going to happen regardless, in order to score political points at home and abroad.

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  • ButtcleftButtcleft Registered User regular
    edited November 2014
    This is ridiculous.

    When.

    When is the GOP going to finally admit that climate change is real? It seems like they'll have to eventually. First, I mean, it kind of manifestly is. Second of all, the longer they don't, the longer they have to resort to this sort of incoherent nonsense.

    See if you can square these beliefs:

    1. The agreement means that China has to reduce its carbon emissions too slowly.
    2. Carbon emissions do not contribute to global warming.

    I would be far more likely to consider the GOP's views on a lot of other issues if they weren't so committed to slamming the President at the expense of things like facts and reality. Well, the whole screwing over the planet to benefit energy companies thing, too.

    Sorry for bringing domestic politics into an international thread, but this shit...ugh.

    When.

    They will never admit it.

    Even when their states start to disappear beneath the waves, they'll blame it on homosexuals or something equally ridiculous, because all the big pollution generators are also the republicans biggest donators.

    edit
    Didn't see Wyverns post, funny we both make the same assumption on what the Republicans will blame.

    Buttcleft on
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    chrisnl wrote: »
    So the GOP response boils down to this being a "job killing" policy, right? I wouldn't be surprised if they also brought up the fact that India isn't involved in this agreement so it doesn't matter anyway.

    And really, is China pledging to stop increasing their carbon emissions by 2030 really that impressive? I mean it's great that China has at least come to any sort of pollution agreement, but before this particular one was made, when was their carbon output predicted to peak? It wouldn't surprise me if it was within a year or two of 2030 anyway.

    The cynic in me believes that China just agreed to something that was going to happen regardless, in order to score political points at home and abroad.

    Rough idea: it seems like China's goals are to at least equal US standards of living. They currently consume a bit less than 30% as much electricity as us per capita, which seems like a good stand in when involving this discussion in particular. So to reach their goal they have to more than triple their energy output in 15 years. In the last 15, they've increased by something like 130%. Coal being the easiest way to do that, especially since they mine almost half of the planet's coal, I think it's safe to say this is a real change.

    That's probably being done for domestic reasons more than international ones, but the symbolism internationally is strong.

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
  • chrisnlchrisnl Registered User regular
    Yeah I absolutely agree that the symbolism of this agreement is big, and it is probably the most important part of the agreement. It's not like we can count on the US government actually meeting the goals set forth in this agreement anyway, since we keep electing Republicans for some reason.

    I'd just like to be able to convince myself that this has more than just symbolic significance.

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  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    Krieghund wrote: »
    GOO victory in 2016 more or less means miss Miami goodbye

    Probably won't just be Miami. I'm guessing anything that borders the Everglades is going to sink. So, basically all of South Florida. Or, the biggest blue parts. Also, some of the most profitable tourist and seasonal areas of the state.

    Miami's a catch all. Do you live in or near a seaside community?

    Say goodnight, Gracie.

    Lh96QHG.png
  • CaptainNemoCaptainNemo Registered User regular
    A symbolic step is still a step.

    PSN:CaptainNemo1138
    Shitty Tumblr:lighthouse1138.tumblr.com
  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    Saltwater intrusion into drinking water wells and aquifers is as big a problem as rising sea levels. A lot of coastal communities that manage to stay above water will still end up going thirsty as their fresh water supplies slowly turn into seawater.

  • PolaritiePolaritie Sleepy Registered User regular
    Saltwater intrusion into drinking water wells and aquifers is as big a problem as rising sea levels. A lot of coastal communities that manage to stay above water will still end up going thirsty as their fresh water supplies slowly turn into seawater.

    Eh, that can be fixed by polluting more.

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  • CantidoCantido Registered User regular
    Solar power will work better for China when they can see the sun again.

    3DS Friendcode 5413-1311-3767
  • tinwhiskerstinwhiskers Registered User regular
    A symbolic step is still a step.

    Sure and so is a step backwards. This deal doesn't achieve what it needs to achieve to actually attenuate climate change, but effectively lets China off the hook for the next decade and a half, while still being in compliance with an agreement that is very much a 'too little too late' deal.

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  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    edited November 2014
    China has to clean itself up or choke itself to death on pollution. A fifth of its arable soil is toxic and its major cities are barely livable. Rich Chinese are leaving the country to get away from the pollution.

    All the Chinese government needs to do to be reminded that they need to reduce pollution is look out a window in Beijing. That is how I'm pretty sure they're sincere in this.

    Jephery on
    }
    "Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
  • CauldCauld Registered User regular
    chrisnl wrote: »
    So the GOP response boils down to this being a "job killing" policy, right? I wouldn't be surprised if they also brought up the fact that India isn't involved in this agreement so it doesn't matter anyway.

    And really, is China pledging to stop increasing their carbon emissions by 2030 really that impressive? I mean it's great that China has at least come to any sort of pollution agreement, but before this particular one was made, when was their carbon output predicted to peak? It wouldn't surprise me if it was within a year or two of 2030 anyway.

    The cynic in me believes that China just agreed to something that was going to happen regardless, in order to score political points at home and abroad.

    Like you said, my impression was that China expected its peak CO2 output to peak around 2030 anyway. I'm all for reducing emissions, but I'm not sure this agreement actually means anything.

  • ElvenshaeElvenshae Registered User regular
    See if you can square these beliefs:

    1. The agreement means that China has to reduce its carbon emissions too slowly.
    2. Carbon emissions do not contribute to global warming.

    I'll take a stab at it. It requires a few intermediate steps and a bit of order reversal.

    1. Carbon emissions do not [meaningfully?] contribute to global warming.
    2. A significant percentage of people, including the people who wrote this deal, believe that carbon emissions are the primary driver of global warming, however.
    3. Those people have an interest, therefore, in rapidly and effectively reducing carbon emissions in order to combat globabl warming.
    4. Therefore, they actions they take should result in rapid and effective reductions in carbon emissions.
    5. The agreement means that China has to reduce its carbon emissions too slowly - it requires neither a rapid nor an effective reduction in Chinese carbon emissions.
    6. Therefore, this agreement puts additional burden on [constituents] while not even achieving its stated goals, regardless of whether or not you believe that those are good goals to be working towards.

    How's that? (Other than depressing.)

  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    A symbolic step is still a step.

    Sure and so is a step backwards. This deal doesn't achieve what it needs to achieve to actually attenuate climate change, but effectively lets China off the hook for the next decade and a half, while still being in compliance with an agreement that is very much a 'too little too late' deal.

    If you think this is a step back you have unrealistic expectations. The 2 degree limit is never going to be met. If it was, it would've had to start back in the 80s or 90s. China has never admitted that it needs to cap, let alone reduce, emissions. It making this move is a breakthrough that will lead, hopefully, to fuller and better deals in the years to come.

    Short of invading the rest of the world and forcing them to toe the line (which wouldn't work), this is the best you can do right now.

    People should absolutely still push, never stop pushing, but this is a victory of the possible.

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  • CantidoCantido Registered User regular
    edited November 2014
    If America develops the necessary bio and geo engineering solutions to global warming hopefully China will steal it.

    Cantido on
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  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    we just need to figure out a way to bomb global warming, and then we can beat it

  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Cantido wrote: »
    If America develops the necessary bio and geo engineering solutions to global warming hopefully China will steal it.

    Way things are going, wouldn't shock me if it ended up going the other way.

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
  • DaedalusDaedalus Registered User regular
    Jephery wrote: »
    China has to clean itself up or choke itself to death on pollution. A fifth of its arable soil is toxic and its major cities are barely livable. Rich Chinese are leaving the country to get away from the pollution.

    All the Chinese government needs to do to be reminded that they need to reduce pollution is look out a window in Beijing. That is how I'm pretty sure they're sincere in this.

    China's immediate air pollution problems don't have a whole lot to do with carbon, though, Beijing is drowning in smog and particulates which aren't the same thing. You can clean those up without really putting a dent in your carbon emissions; the US has been doing that for a long time.

  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Smaller scope than the China deal, but the US and India are set to announce a deal on climate.

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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