You know the thing about this situation that really gets to me? It's that I see no way in which Putin answers for his actions. Doomsday scenarios aside, what's the worst that can happen to him? He loses his job? Big whoop.
Well, the thing about regime changes is that the new guys in charge will always blame absolutely everything on the previous guy. So while things may not change in general it's almost certain that Putin will be dead or in jail for the rest of his life... Most likely dead though.
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TraceGNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam WeRegistered Userregular
He doesn't need to win the war.
He just needs to not lose the war.
+1
AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
I am not holding my breath for Putin to lose power. I think it would be a bad idea to try and make that happen.
Sometimes bad guys die in their beds, like the traitor Robert Baratheon. Such is the way of things.
+2
EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
Putin is also considerably limited by his power base, which is the Russian mega-billionares club. Sable ratteling to distract NATO from helping Urkaine is one thing, launching a massive attack is something totally different and one that isn't going to be actually profitable for his powerbase.
It's very similar to the GOP rhetoric, they say horribly irresponsible things for the global political stage but in reality it's only meant for an internal audience to be red meat for their support groups. Putin doesn't want and can't handle an actual military confrontation with NATO, even with Nukes. There is no victory there or profit to be had for him or his cronies.
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AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
edited July 2015
Fwiw apparently the Russian prosecutors office said that that dumb Baltic thing was baseless and that they have to investigate every request even if they're really fucking stupid.
Putin's press guy said he was unaware of the request and such a request was really faking dumb and Lavrov said that Russia has several treaties and diplomatic agreements with the Baltic nations.
So I'm putting this at the level of those morons who asked for Putin to retake Alaska last year for now.
Putin is also considerably limited by his power base, which is the Russian mega-billionares club. Sable ratteling to distract NATO from helping Urkaine is one thing, launching a massive attack is something totally different and one that isn't going to be actually profitable for his powerbase.
It's very similar to the GOP rhetoric, they say horribly irresponsible things for the global political stage but in reality it's only meant for an internal audience to be red meat for their support groups. Putin doesn't want and can't handle an actual military confrontation with NATO, even with Nukes. There is no victory there or profit to be had for him or his cronies.
I was pretty sure he'd left them behind. His powerbase is in the Russian government and his own popularity afaik.
Putin is also considerably limited by his power base, which is the Russian mega-billionares club. Sable ratteling to distract NATO from helping Urkaine is one thing, launching a massive attack is something totally different and one that isn't going to be actually profitable for his powerbase.
It's very similar to the GOP rhetoric, they say horribly irresponsible things for the global political stage but in reality it's only meant for an internal audience to be red meat for their support groups. Putin doesn't want and can't handle an actual military confrontation with NATO, even with Nukes. There is no victory there or profit to be had for him or his cronies.
I was pretty sure he'd left them behind. His powerbase is in the Russian government and his own popularity afaik.
That fact that Putin tanked the Russian economy with the Ukraine fiasco and isn't facing imminent replacement is a sign of that.
Jephery on
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"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
Putin is also considerably limited by his power base, which is the Russian mega-billionares club. Sable ratteling to distract NATO from helping Urkaine is one thing, launching a massive attack is something totally different and one that isn't going to be actually profitable for his powerbase.
It's very similar to the GOP rhetoric, they say horribly irresponsible things for the global political stage but in reality it's only meant for an internal audience to be red meat for their support groups. Putin doesn't want and can't handle an actual military confrontation with NATO, even with Nukes. There is no victory there or profit to be had for him or his cronies.
I was pretty sure he'd left them behind. His powerbase is in the Russian government and his own popularity afaik.
That fact that Putin tanked the Russian economy with the Ukraine fiasco and isn't facing imminent replacement is a sign of that.
Because he's spun it that it's all the West's fault.
Internally, most of his cronies are still waiting to reap rewards from taking over Ukraine. If he fails to deliver there he likely will be deposed.
Maybe. Though right now his cronies are still sitting pretty, so even if the current Urkaine fiasco doesn't pay off for them, it'd probably still be better if they leave Putin in power and keep their current positions in the graft and skimming world. Figuring out who would replace Putin and where everyone ends up ranking relative to the new guy is pretty risky.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
This assumes that the cronies have actually felt any pinches whatsoever instead of the actual hardship being passed on and felt by the regular people. Once you get stupidly, fabulously rich you can get insulated from pretty much anything.
Though right now his cronies are still sitting pretty, so even if the current Urkaine fiasco doesn't pay off for them, it'd probably still be better if they leave Putin in power and keep their current positions in the graft and skimming world. Figuring out who would replace Putin and where everyone ends up ranking relative to the new guy is pretty risky.
This was a slightly interesting article about this kind of business. Yeah yeah, google translate, but I think it's decently readable...
Particularly vulnerable are the group who took their mortgages in foreign currencies like the dollar. After the currency crisis last winter, the ruble's value has almost halved, while the price of the bank loan doubled.
The Russian banks have in the past ten years, persuaded many borrowers to take their foreign currency mortgages. The interest rate is slightly lower compared to the ruble, but the biggest winner has always been the banks themselves.
For many Russians have a loan tied to the dollar has also been the only chance to get a home loan.
This assumes that the cronies have actually felt any pinches whatsoever instead of the actual hardship being passed on and felt by the regular people. Once you get stupidly, fabulously rich you can get insulated from pretty much anything.
Losing a dozen feet off your next yacht must burn a lot though!
MOSCOW (AFP) - Dozens of Russian soldiers are facing trial for fleeing their unit, fearing deployment to Ukraine, a news site and a lawyer for five of the men said Saturday.
The popular Gazeta.ru website said several dozen soldiers would be prosecuted after fleeing a training ground in southern Russia where they were under pressure to "volunteer" to fight in Ukraine.
"They all have the same story. They all served together in the same unit," said Chernetskaya, based in the southern town of Krasnodar.
"They weren't directly forced to go to Ukraine. People came to the unit to canvass them to go," Chernetskaya said, adding the recruiters were "not wearing any identification tags."
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AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
It's not Putin's fault if those soldiers ran away from their duty stations because they got confused by the Ukrainian recruiters touring the nation to learn how to build an army to protect their people from those facists in Kiev.
This may or may not be a direct quote from Russian military spokesmen.
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jmcdonaldI voted, did you?DC(ish)Registered Userregular
It's not Putin's fault if those soldiers ran away from their duty stations because they got confused by the Ukrainian recruiters touring the nation to learn how to build an army to protect their people from those facists in Kiev.
This may or may not be a direct quote from Russian military spokesmen.
Various news sites, mostly Russian but some Ukrainian, are reporting armed clashes between Right Sector militants and police in the western town of Mukachevo. Several have already been injured or killed. Disturbingly, the Azov battalion, another neo-Nazi paramilitary, has offered to "mediate" the dispute.
"In order to ensure an unbiased and impartial investigation, we suggest that the Verkhovna Rada [the parliament] of Ukraine should immediately lift the parliamentary immunity of deputies as the main perpetrators of the conflict," the Azov battalion said in a statement.
According to the statement, "it is also necessary to take full control of actions by law enforcement agencies, whose participation in the resolution of this conflict casts doubt on their unbiased approach."
Kyiv Post claims that RPGs and Kalashnikovs were used in the assault. A couple hundred Right Sector supporters are protesting in front of the president's compound in Kiev, in solidarity with their fellows in Mukachevo. These groups have repeatedly threatened a "second revolution" in Kiev and generally don't acknowledge the authority of the Ukrainian state, but open conflict between them and the security services has been minimal so far, presumably due to their desire to present a united front against the Donbass separatists and their Russian backers.
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Captain Marcusnow arrives the hour of actionRegistered Userregular
I am loathe to trust any Russian news site nowadays, especially if it involves something that looks bad for Ukraine. They lost all credibility when Putin started locking up journalists and built that "troll room".
I am loathe to trust any Russian news site nowadays, especially if it involves something that looks bad for Ukraine. They lost all credibility when Putin started locking up journalists and built that "troll room".
This war has more misinformation from both sides than just about any conflict I've witnessed. Sputnik is a Russian state news agency and is obviously biased in their favor. That said, these events have also been reported by Kyiv Post, which is not a Russian agency and from what I've seen is generally more pro-Western.
Interesting article in Swedish newspaper today about how Russia's laws against "foreign agents" is starting to backfire - Russia's biggest privately funded research institute was forced to close due to the big chunk of foreign investment it received.
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TraceGNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam WeRegistered Userregular
TBILISI (Reuters) — Georgia accused Russia on Monday of violating its sovereignty by placing border markers on the edge of the South Ossetia region, leaving part of an international oil pipeline in territory under Russian control.
Tbilisi has not controlled South Ossetia or its fellow breakaway region of Abkhazia since fighting a brief war with Moscow in 2008. Both host Russian military bases, but most countries and the United Nations regard them as part of Georgia.
Russian troops have been installing barbed wire and fences around South Ossetia since the war but residents say the soldiers have now erected border signs up to about 1.5 km (one mile) beyond the administrative border.
Condemning the action, Georgia's Foreign Ministry said part of the BP-operated Baku-Supsa oil pipeline was now in territory it regards as occupied by Russia.
"The Georgian Foreign Ministry expresses its extreme concern over the illegal placement of banners by the Russian occupying forces marking the so-called 'border,'" it said in a statement.
"It is noteworthy that ... with this illegal action a certain portion of the (Baku-Supsa) pipeline next to the village of Orchosani fell within the occupied territory."
TBILISI (Reuters) — Georgia accused Russia on Monday of violating its sovereignty by placing border markers on the edge of the South Ossetia region, leaving part of an international oil pipeline in territory under Russian control.
Tbilisi has not controlled South Ossetia or its fellow breakaway region of Abkhazia since fighting a brief war with Moscow in 2008. Both host Russian military bases, but most countries and the United Nations regard them as part of Georgia.
Russian troops have been installing barbed wire and fences around South Ossetia since the war but residents say the soldiers have now erected border signs up to about 1.5 km (one mile) beyond the administrative border.
Condemning the action, Georgia's Foreign Ministry said part of the BP-operated Baku-Supsa oil pipeline was now in territory it regards as occupied by Russia.
"The Georgian Foreign Ministry expresses its extreme concern over the illegal placement of banners by the Russian occupying forces marking the so-called 'border,'" it said in a statement.
"It is noteworthy that ... with this illegal action a certain portion of the (Baku-Supsa) pipeline next to the village of Orchosani fell within the occupied territory."
Honestly with the only two entities that might do jack and/or shit about it busy with the greek deal or the iran deal right now, they could probably put those markers halfway through the capitol if they wanted.
More seriously speaking, the primacy and importance of upholding international agreements that you have signed on to is huge in International Relations. This decision may well isolate Russia even more than they have been.
More seriously speaking, the primacy and importance of upholding international agreements that you have signed on to is huge in International Relations. This decision may well isolate Russia even more than they have been.
I think the Budapest Assurance has shown that Putin will unilaterally abrogate agreements if he sees a benefit. This doesn't surprise me.
EDIT: Though I think in this case it's less "This could benefit me" and more "I need this money for other purposes"
The article doesn't really explain how financial compensation would be unconstitutional. I mean, the statement is generally true, the US would also follow its constitution over any UN rule, but it seems like it would take something a little more extreme than that.
Interesting article in Swedish newspaper today about how Russia's laws against "foreign agents" is starting to backfire - Russia's biggest privately funded research institute was forced to close due to the big chunk of foreign investment it received.
For more than a decade, the private Dynasty Foundation has supported science and education in Russia, funding scholarships and organizing summer schools. Yet roughly two months ago, the Russian government applied a controversial law and labelled the foundation a foreign agent. Earlier this month, Dynasty's founder Dmitry Zimin, a physicist turned entrepreneur, was forced to announce its closure. The government's treatment of Dynasty Foundation marks an unwelcome return to the inseparability of science and ideology in Russia.
There is more to these events than a science funder caught up in unfortunate circumstances. There has been a profound political change in Russia, and the causes and consequences of this — for science and for society — need to be examined in historical, political and social contexts.
Reacting to political protests against voter fraud in the 2011 parliamentary elections, the government introduced a series of laws and measures that were designed to restrict foreign influence, but in fact seriously curtailed political and civil liberties. These laws reflect the anti-Western rhetoric of government officials and a renewed popular nationalist sentiment, which intensified last year with the annexation of Crimea and the war in Ukraine.
Anton Logvinov, who specializes on writing about the gaming industry, noticed similarities between a MANPAD pictured in the video and the “Stinger” from the game Battlefield 3. Both the weapon from the video and the weapon from the game feature the words “TRACKING RAINER” instead of “TRACKING TRAINER.” This means the separatists’ video repeats the game’s spelling mistake. Additionally, the MANPAD in the video has visible welding marks.
Bloggers have drawn attention to other suspicious features of the video. For example, the labels on storage boxes feature several spelling mistakes, like “RE USABLE” and “DATE LOUDED.” Another label reads “US APMY,” switching out the letter “R” for its cyrillic equivalent of “P.”
Anton Logvinov, who specializes on writing about the gaming industry, noticed similarities between a MANPAD pictured in the video and the “Stinger” from the game Battlefield 3. Both the weapon from the video and the weapon from the game feature the words “TRACKING RAINER” instead of “TRACKING TRAINER.” This means the separatists’ video repeats the game’s spelling mistake. Additionally, the MANPAD in the video has visible welding marks.
Bloggers have drawn attention to other suspicious features of the video. For example, the labels on storage boxes feature several spelling mistakes, like “RE USABLE” and “DATE LOUDED.” Another label reads “US APMY,” switching out the letter “R” for its cyrillic equivalent of “P.”
Posts
Well, the thing about regime changes is that the new guys in charge will always blame absolutely everything on the previous guy. So while things may not change in general it's almost certain that Putin will be dead or in jail for the rest of his life... Most likely dead though.
He just needs to not lose the war.
Sometimes bad guys die in their beds, like the traitor Robert Baratheon. Such is the way of things.
It's very similar to the GOP rhetoric, they say horribly irresponsible things for the global political stage but in reality it's only meant for an internal audience to be red meat for their support groups. Putin doesn't want and can't handle an actual military confrontation with NATO, even with Nukes. There is no victory there or profit to be had for him or his cronies.
Putin's press guy said he was unaware of the request and such a request was really faking dumb and Lavrov said that Russia has several treaties and diplomatic agreements with the Baltic nations.
So I'm putting this at the level of those morons who asked for Putin to retake Alaska last year for now.
I was pretty sure he'd left them behind. His powerbase is in the Russian government and his own popularity afaik.
That fact that Putin tanked the Russian economy with the Ukraine fiasco and isn't facing imminent replacement is a sign of that.
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
Because he's spun it that it's all the West's fault.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
Maybe. Though right now his cronies are still sitting pretty, so even if the current Urkaine fiasco doesn't pay off for them, it'd probably still be better if they leave Putin in power and keep their current positions in the graft and skimming world. Figuring out who would replace Putin and where everyone ends up ranking relative to the new guy is pretty risky.
Losing a dozen feet off your next yacht must burn a lot though!
http://steamcommunity.com/id/pablocampy
This may or may not be a direct quote from Russian military spokesmen.
:hydra:
And pretty bitter about a specific poster for someone with only four posts......
And seems to have disappeared into the ether.
Kyiv Post claims that RPGs and Kalashnikovs were used in the assault. A couple hundred Right Sector supporters are protesting in front of the president's compound in Kiev, in solidarity with their fellows in Mukachevo. These groups have repeatedly threatened a "second revolution" in Kiev and generally don't acknowledge the authority of the Ukrainian state, but open conflict between them and the security services has been minimal so far, presumably due to their desire to present a united front against the Donbass separatists and their Russian backers.
edit - Ukraine Today is reporting on it as well.
Honestly with the only two entities that might do jack and/or shit about it busy with the greek deal or the iran deal right now, they could probably put those markers halfway through the capitol if they wanted.
Nothing is going to be done about this.
More seriously speaking, the primacy and importance of upholding international agreements that you have signed on to is huge in International Relations. This decision may well isolate Russia even more than they have been.
I think the Budapest Assurance has shown that Putin will unilaterally abrogate agreements if he sees a benefit. This doesn't surprise me.
EDIT: Though I think in this case it's less "This could benefit me" and more "I need this money for other purposes"
Here's a piece in English on that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJr7zUXwBx8
Russian Cosplay now ruled illegal.
Do you have a link for this? That would be amazing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJ_OJOjzDQk
~2:00 into this fucking drug trip of a propaganda video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcJCNdCTJNs
Yep.
And I wouldn't put it past them if that were the case.