The Tories are definitely walking a tightrope - on the other hand, the anti-eu types who vote for them are never going to swing labour so as long as they control the spin they're probably fairly secure.
This election showed that there was a significant number of voters who'd typically vote labour that were willing to go UKIP - There're a lot of small c conservatives in the North/Scotland who're voting SNP/Labour because of what happened to those regions under Thatcher, not because they disagree with the fundamental ideology. This is dangerous territory for the tories politically
Sure but I'm talking about the ukip types who swung Tory to 'keep out labour'. The conservatives are probably counting on that animosity going forward. I agree it's a gamble, and hopefully one they'll lose, but I'm not overly confident about it.
Edit: I mean labour is fairly wedded to the eu inclusion agenda at least in the public mind, so as long as they can paint themselves as the party who will fight for Britain against those nasty euro foreigners they're probably pretty secure regardless of what actually plays out policy wise.
Leaving the EU will damage existing business interests while opening up new opportunities - It's the kind of economic shifting about that Tories are OK dealing with. The Tory party has a huge split over the question, but they'll relish being the government in power that gets to recreate the majority of our international commercial relationships.
It still seems to me that most businesses (and their lobbyists) would favour stability and be afraid of short-term losses
I don't think that promises about long-term benefits, new markets in the Commonwealth and so on would hold much clout
Also, no one seems really wedded to the idea that the UK has to stay inside the EU
The UK is politically incredibly isolated within Europe and it has been a major obstacle to EU reform
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GumpyThere is alwaysa greater powerRegistered Userregular
What can I say, island nation syndrome. Culturally we're not french and we're not close enough to anyone else to really see a huge connection (I guess because we can look at America and see a lot more similarities there then we do with the continent).
Yeah, but Portuguese and Finnish conservatives have no problem working together in the European parliament, whereas the British conversatives had to create their own faction and fill it with small right-wing loony parties
Leaving the EU will damage existing business interests while opening up new opportunities - It's the kind of economic shifting about that Tories are OK dealing with. The Tory party has a huge split over the question, but they'll relish being the government in power that gets to recreate the majority of our international commercial relationships.
I don't really see what new opportunities it will open up, though
I don't see how the UK could more efficiently reduce conventional trade barriers with other countries on its own (and those are already lower around the world than they have ever been)
There are mostly non-conventional trade barriers left, leaving the EU would mostly serve to rebuild those barriers in Europe
I don't really see the concrete perspective, the article mostly mentions countries as expansionary "targets" which historically got some of the worst of British colonialism
I can see why someone would hope for increased economic cooperation between the UK and India, but I have no idea how the UK would get better "deals" than the US or EU in, for example, China
Send gunboats?
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GumpyThere is alwaysa greater powerRegistered Userregular
Leaving the EU will damage existing business interests while opening up new opportunities - It's the kind of economic shifting about that Tories are OK dealing with. The Tory party has a huge split over the question, but they'll relish being the government in power that gets to recreate the majority of our international commercial relationships.
I don't really see what new opportunities it will open up, though
Existing trade networks will get shat upon if we leave the EU but something will replace them. The main targets are india/brazil/china, though we're getting into an economic area I know little about
It all depends on how lucrative it is for other nations to continue to trade with the UK as a solo entity. We get a fuck-tonne of investment from countries like China and those in the Middle East, through multiple avenues, property investment as a common example (Check out how much of London is owned by the Middle East; hint: a lot). As long as those countries continue to see the UK as a worthwhile place to trade, an EU exit would not cause massive pain. It may cause a shock to the markets as instability and uncertainty rise but that can even itself out over time. Britain also needs to maintain production of goods in which we maintain a comparative advantage beside developing countries like India. e.g. high-end sports car production like Aston Martin.
I think the main worry is that people simply do not know the answer. Depending on what side of the coin you're on, you can find reasons why an exit is good/bad. The big issue all comes down to how other countries will react. It was difficult for the EU to agree new free trade deals with the US and China, and they only really developed because the US and China were using the EU as a middle man to get to the other. So, if we then have to renegotiate every single trade deal going, that could cause a headache. The bigger you are as an economy, the more bargaining power you have. It's one of the main reasons the EU exists in the first place.
Not to mention why, jingoistic callbacks to days of Empire reasons aside, UKIP's idea was to then enter a similar arrangement with the Commonwealth nations like Canada and Australia. There's strength in numbers.
I will say this and it's not something I take much joy in saying, should the UK ever exit the EU, it would actually be better for there to be a Conservative Government as apposed to a Labour one (unless Labour jerk back to the New Labour ways). Primarily because the Conservatives are willing to bend the country over and allow global corporations and wealthy nations to have their way with our markets and maintain that lucrative appeal. Strictly from an economic point of view. From a common-man POV, it would actually be rather terrible as income inequality would no doubt widen ever further.
Leaving the EU will damage existing business interests while opening up new opportunities - It's the kind of economic shifting about that Tories are OK dealing with. The Tory party has a huge split over the question, but they'll relish being the government in power that gets to recreate the majority of our international commercial relationships.
I don't really see what new opportunities it will open up, though
Existing trade networks will get shat upon if we leave the EU but something will replace them. The main targets are india/brazil/china, though we're getting into an economic area I know little about
Nothing stopping us opening trade with them now
Also I don't see how breaking solid trade agreements on the basis that we could then replace them with new solid trade agreements is a good idea
That's just paying money for shit to be broken for a while before it (hopefully) gets fixed, with no real benefit at all
Though I think there will be much lobbying going on, the people who would really suffer if this all doesn't turn out as well as advocates think it will are those in already vulnerable positions
The Greek government has told its technical staff in Brussels to “close all issues as soon as possible but without retreating from the red lines”, the AMNA newswire reports.
Those lines are Greece’s primary surplus targets (ie, how much revenues should exceed spending, stripping out debt payments), pensions, labour market reforms, and Greek VAT rates.
Those red lines are, of course, the things their lenders want them to change.
That doesn't really say if they would be for or against a UK exit, though. It just makes sense for them to plan for the possibility. They are essentially doing what the last two pages of this thread did: Thinking about the ramifications and how they affect them. A lot of businesses in the UK probably think about that, regardless of whether they are foreign or UK owned, it's just long term (or in the current case even mid term) planning.
The scheme would apply only to migrants who have arrived in Italy and Greece since last month; who have a chance of obtaining asylum, ruling out economic and other “irregular” migrants; and who are of a nationality with at least a 75% success rate in asylum claims, meaning probably only Syrians and Eritreans.
The scheme would apply only to migrants who have arrived in Italy and Greece since last month; who have a chance of obtaining asylum, ruling out economic and other “irregular” migrants; and who are of a nationality with at least a 75% success rate in asylum claims, meaning probably only Syrians and Eritreans.
Leaving the EU will damage existing business interests while opening up new opportunities - It's the kind of economic shifting about that Tories are OK dealing with. The Tory party has a huge split over the question, but they'll relish being the government in power that gets to recreate the majority of our international commercial relationships.
I don't really see what new opportunities it will open up, though
You're ironically thinking too big; changing the economic linkages might not result in more wealth for the country as a whole, but it will generate fabulous(er) individual wealth for those in positions of economic/political power during the changeover. Who cares if GDP shrinks by 20% if your fund makes a few billion?
This actually did a good job of clearing up, for me, the bits and pieces I'd heard about drama over seating in Westminster, so I thought I'd share it here.
Besides being great for Ireland, the yes-vote for gay marriage also seems to put some pressure on the debate in other countries. At least here there seems to be some fresh movement in the debate coming from the vote.
Posts
This election showed that there was a significant number of voters who'd typically vote labour that were willing to go UKIP - There're a lot of small c conservatives in the North/Scotland who're voting SNP/Labour because of what happened to those regions under Thatcher, not because they disagree with the fundamental ideology. This is dangerous territory for the tories politically
Edit: I mean labour is fairly wedded to the eu inclusion agenda at least in the public mind, so as long as they can paint themselves as the party who will fight for Britain against those nasty euro foreigners they're probably pretty secure regardless of what actually plays out policy wise.
It still seems to me that most businesses (and their lobbyists) would favour stability and be afraid of short-term losses
I don't think that promises about long-term benefits, new markets in the Commonwealth and so on would hold much clout
The UK is politically incredibly isolated within Europe and it has been a major obstacle to EU reform
I don't really see what new opportunities it will open up, though
There are mostly non-conventional trade barriers left, leaving the EU would mostly serve to rebuild those barriers in Europe
I don't really see the concrete perspective, the article mostly mentions countries as expansionary "targets" which historically got some of the worst of British colonialism
Send gunboats?
Existing trade networks will get shat upon if we leave the EU but something will replace them. The main targets are india/brazil/china, though we're getting into an economic area I know little about
I think the main worry is that people simply do not know the answer. Depending on what side of the coin you're on, you can find reasons why an exit is good/bad. The big issue all comes down to how other countries will react. It was difficult for the EU to agree new free trade deals with the US and China, and they only really developed because the US and China were using the EU as a middle man to get to the other. So, if we then have to renegotiate every single trade deal going, that could cause a headache. The bigger you are as an economy, the more bargaining power you have. It's one of the main reasons the EU exists in the first place.
Not to mention why, jingoistic callbacks to days of Empire reasons aside, UKIP's idea was to then enter a similar arrangement with the Commonwealth nations like Canada and Australia. There's strength in numbers.
I will say this and it's not something I take much joy in saying, should the UK ever exit the EU, it would actually be better for there to be a Conservative Government as apposed to a Labour one (unless Labour jerk back to the New Labour ways). Primarily because the Conservatives are willing to bend the country over and allow global corporations and wealthy nations to have their way with our markets and maintain that lucrative appeal. Strictly from an economic point of view. From a common-man POV, it would actually be rather terrible as income inequality would no doubt widen ever further.
I would expect the major players to also lobby really hard against an exit
Nothing stopping us opening trade with them now
Also I don't see how breaking solid trade agreements on the basis that we could then replace them with new solid trade agreements is a good idea
That's just paying money for shit to be broken for a while before it (hopefully) gets fixed, with no real benefit at all
However, the rest of the EU is pretty anti-banker. If something like the financial transaction tax came back, I could see the City wanting to leave.
I think I remember threats that some financial service providers would relocate to Dublin in the case of a British exit
If the UK leaves, there will be some hard decisions over who gets to stay and who has to leave on both sides, this will affect millions
Those red lines are, of course, the things their lenders want them to change.
Deutsche Bank for example is already considering whether they should leave.
Deutsche Bank mulls UK EU exit plan
That doesn't really say if they would be for or against a UK exit, though. It just makes sense for them to plan for the possibility. They are essentially doing what the last two pages of this thread did: Thinking about the ramifications and how they affect them. A lot of businesses in the UK probably think about that, regardless of whether they are foreign or UK owned, it's just long term (or in the current case even mid term) planning.
The proposed legislation includes:
Edit: I mean you don't imagine they might increase NHS funding? That would blow my mind.
You're ironically thinking too big; changing the economic linkages might not result in more wealth for the country as a whole, but it will generate fabulous(er) individual wealth for those in positions of economic/political power during the changeover. Who cares if GDP shrinks by 20% if your fund makes a few billion?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3099736/Holidaymakers-misery-boat-people-Syria-Afghanistan-seeking-asylum-set-migrant-camp-turn-popular-Greek-island-Kos-disgusting-hellhole.html
Who cares about the refugees, what about our vacation?
Let other people do that for you, limit their revenue stream as much as you can.
Well, for the Mail, at least they're acknowledging them as "people".
His archenemy is RowboatCop.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32970337
One of the best Party Leaders of the last couple of decades, Charles Kennedy will be surely missed.