of the three, only Greece is in the Eurozone; Croatia and Bulgaria both use their own currency. Croatia's kuna isn't even pegged to the Euro. so: probably not very much. Greece is likely to remain politically affiliated to the EU regardless, even if it discards the common market for capital controls temporarily.
austerity: both are dramatically poorer than Greece. It is hard to sympathize about pension cuts when your pensions are even lower to begin with. Bulgaria is additionally heavily dependent on Greek trade and the capital controls hurt it badly. still, they do have an obvious reason to stand with a small country resisting the tendency for Germany to prioritize its own concerns
my read is that China seems unlikely to be interested, nor Russia, since Greece is likely to remain politically affiliated to the EU regardless and also it's going to default. I am no IR expert though.
You don't really believe that, do you? He did it just to further his narrative of being the rebel that's being hated by 'the man'.
This doesn't really seem provable, or very likely.
Isn't it far more likely that Tsipras asked a member of his team who was unpopular with the EU to resign in order to smooth the way for new negotiations?
no, I think it's internal party politics; varoufakis is too conservative (and, the real problem, is too indelicate in this conservatism himself to be rationalized)
he can go on about international imbalances but not in a sufficiently Marxist way
That also sounds more reasonable than a swan dive into an empty swimming pool purely to promote a vague brand of 'rebel' to an unidentified audience for an unidentified gain.
I guess the best way to smooth things over with EU would be to show up to todays meeting with a proposal, which they didn't. I wonder if they're banking on the EU to throw them out of the Euro and declare Greece bankrupt in order to save face at home?
Lol, Varoufakis had to resign because all of the other finance ministers personally hate his guts.
You know you're doing something right if you make stoic neoliberal technocrats actively hate you.
You don't really believe that, do you? He did it just to further his narrative of being the rebel that's being hated by 'the man'
I wonder why so many people fall for his transparent act
I find it fairly easy to believe, especially if he was brought in from outside the financial bureaucracy. These finance ministers often live in a rarified world for the most part, and the general posturing of the Syriza government would seem repugnant to them.
You don't really believe that, do you? He did it just to further his narrative of being the rebel that's being hated by 'the man'.
This doesn't really seem provable, or very likely.
Isn't it far more likely that Tsipras asked a member of his team who was unpopular with the EU to resign in order to smooth the way for new negotiations?
Dunno, the guy is all about show. It's the typical southern european macho shtick, I know it from when I visit my relatives down there
I guess the best way to smooth things over with EU would be to show up to todays meeting with a proposal, which they didn't. I wonder if they're banking on the EU to throw them out of the Euro and declare Greece bankrupt in order to save face at home?
Yeah that was ... odd.
I'm not sure how to interpret it but certainly the euro side seem understandably disgruntled.
Possibly gauging reaction to proposals they haven't finalised? It might make sense if the Greeks have a pretty good idea what they're willing to give ground on but aren't sure how much ground it's necessary to give to reach an agreement.
I guess the best way to smooth things over with EU would be to show up to todays meeting with a proposal, which they didn't. I wonder if they're banking on the EU to throw them out of the Euro and declare Greece bankrupt in order to save face at home?
Yeah that was ... odd.
I'm not sure how to interpret it but certainly the euro side seem understandably disgruntled.
Possibly gauging reaction to proposals they haven't finalised? It might make sense if the Greeks have a pretty good idea what they're willing to give ground on but aren't sure how much ground it's necessary to give to reach an agreement.
Although if that's the case at this point, well
"I'm very cheerless about this summit and I'm very cheerless about the fact whether Greece wants to come with proposals at all," the Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte is quoted by Reuters as saying in Brussels. "It seems they have put the old proposals on the table again, if we can believe the reports."
Sounds like they turned up with the old proposals which is adding insult to injury really.
Told you so.. they are riding high and want to pressure the rest europe to do what they want
Not that I agree with austerity measures in this case, but they are either completely oblivious to how it play out in the rest of europe, politically, or they want to rile up the populace of the other countries so everything fits their "evil EU money terrorist" narrative
Pardon me for the ignorance but isn't the only proposal greece being offered "cut until you literally have no government/infrastructure left?" I mean both sides seem to come to these talks with no new ideas.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Pardon me for the ignorance but isn't the only proposal greece being offered "cut until you literally have no government/infrastructure left?" I mean both sides seem to come to these talks with no new ideas.
The latest proposal from EU actually contained few cuts (except for military spending) and instead were centred around tax increases, tax evasion measures, pension reforms and privatization.
PS4 - Mrfuzzyhat
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DynagripBreak me a million heartsHoustonRegistered User, ClubPAregular
Pardon me for the ignorance but isn't the only proposal greece being offered "cut until you literally have no government/infrastructure left?" I mean both sides seem to come to these talks with no new ideas.
The latest proposal from EU actually contained few cuts (except for military spending) and instead were centred around tax increases, tax evasion measures, pension reforms and privatization.
mandating another country's defense spending strikes me as a poor precedent. Especially as Greece is unlikely meeting the 2% of GDP target set by NATO...but no one else meets that, aside from the US and apparently Estonia
Pardon me for the ignorance but isn't the only proposal greece being offered "cut until you literally have no government/infrastructure left?" I mean both sides seem to come to these talks with no new ideas.
The latest proposal from EU actually contained few cuts (except for military spending) and instead were centred around tax increases, tax evasion measures, pension reforms and privatization.
mandating another country's defense spending strikes me as a poor precedent. Especially as Greece is unlikely meeting the 2% of GDP target set by NATO...but no one else meets that, aside from the US and apparently Estonia
4% in 2009, down to 2,3% in 2013, apparently. Don't know where they're now at.
Edit- OK, wiki has different numbers, but still: "Greece is the largest importer of conventional weapons in Europe and its military spending is the highest in the European Union (relative to G.D.P)."
Pardon me for the ignorance but isn't the only proposal greece being offered "cut until you literally have no government/infrastructure left?" I mean both sides seem to come to these talks with no new ideas.
The latest proposal from EU actually contained few cuts (except for military spending) and instead were centred around tax increases, tax evasion measures, pension reforms and privatization.
mandating another country's defense spending strikes me as a poor precedent. Especially as Greece is unlikely meeting the 2% of GDP target set by NATO...but no one else meets that, aside from the US and apparently Estonia
Yeah, there's a discrepancy there between the organizations. Military spending is just an easy target for cutting. My guess is that it really doesn't matter much. A lot of the current budget is probably vanishing in corrupt pockets.
PS4 - Mrfuzzyhat
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scherbchenAsgard (it is dead)Registered Userregular
Pardon me for the ignorance but isn't the only proposal greece being offered "cut until you literally have no government/infrastructure left?" I mean both sides seem to come to these talks with no new ideas.
both sides come with no new ideas.
but one side walked away from the talks trying iffy stuff while deadlines were on the table, had a referendum (which I might add again Varoufakis said 'might not be necessary *nudge* *nudge*) then came back to the table without any offers at the alotted time and then said "we'll do it live!" which is basically expected to be a revised version that was on the table they initially walked away from.
Greece's proposals regarded reducing the primary surplus targets and focusing on tax evasion. The red line for Tsipras is pension cuts, and by all accounts he was close to folding on that before he surprised everyone with the referendum.
Pardon me for the ignorance but isn't the only proposal greece being offered "cut until you literally have no government/infrastructure left?" I mean both sides seem to come to these talks with no new ideas.
both sides come with no new ideas.
but one side walked away from the talks trying iffy stuff while deadlines were on the table, had a referendum (which I might add again Varoufakis said 'might not be necessary *nudge* *nudge*) then came back to the table without any offers at the alotted time and then said "we'll do it live!" which is basically expected to be a revised version that was on the table they initially walked away from.
The other side also decided to freeze Greek banks as, basically, a big fuck you to the Greek government.
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scherbchenAsgard (it is dead)Registered Userregular
Pardon me for the ignorance but isn't the only proposal greece being offered "cut until you literally have no government/infrastructure left?" I mean both sides seem to come to these talks with no new ideas.
both sides come with no new ideas.
but one side walked away from the talks trying iffy stuff while deadlines were on the table, had a referendum (which I might add again Varoufakis said 'might not be necessary *nudge* *nudge*) then came back to the table without any offers at the alotted time and then said "we'll do it live!" which is basically expected to be a revised version that was on the table they initially walked away from.
The other side also decided to freeze Greek banks as, basically, a big fuck you to the Greek government.
please explain what you mean by "freeze Greek banks".
Pardon me for the ignorance but isn't the only proposal greece being offered "cut until you literally have no government/infrastructure left?" I mean both sides seem to come to these talks with no new ideas.
both sides come with no new ideas.
but one side walked away from the talks trying iffy stuff while deadlines were on the table, had a referendum (which I might add again Varoufakis said 'might not be necessary *nudge* *nudge*) then came back to the table without any offers at the alotted time and then said "we'll do it live!" which is basically expected to be a revised version that was on the table they initially walked away from.
The other side also decided to freeze Greek banks as, basically, a big fuck you to the Greek government.
please explain what you mean by "freeze Greek banks".
Um, did you miss them cutting off bank financing to greek banks?
It's been kinda a thing.
shryke on
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scherbchenAsgard (it is dead)Registered Userregular
I was kind of curious which "them" we were talking about to be honest. it gets confusing at times.
Pardon me for the ignorance but isn't the only proposal greece being offered "cut until you literally have no government/infrastructure left?" I mean both sides seem to come to these talks with no new ideas.
The latest proposal from EU actually contained few cuts (except for military spending) and instead were centred around tax increases, tax evasion measures, pension reforms and privatization.
mandating another country's defense spending strikes me as a poor precedent. Especially as Greece is unlikely meeting the 2% of GDP target set by NATO...but no one else meets that, aside from the US and apparently Estonia
Yeah, there's a discrepancy there between the organizations. Military spending is just an easy target for cutting. My guess is that it really doesn't matter much. A lot of the current budget is probably vanishing in corrupt pockets.
Dunno how much Greece is currently actually spending (absolute or by GDP), but from my Greek friends the military is kind of a big deal; they really hate the Turks (for historical reasons and due to Cyprus).
Despite both Turkey and Greece being NATO countries, they apparently have their own mini cold war going on. It's a funny old world.
Sic transit gloria mundi.
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AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
The EU has given Greece until Thursday to come up with a new plan and said they will be concluding this process one way or the other "by the end of the week."
The EU has given Greece until Thursday to come up with a new plan and said they will be concluding this process one way or the other "by the end of the week."
I was kind of curious which "them" we were talking about to be honest. it gets confusing at times.
The ECB.
Account not recoverable. So long.
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scherbchenAsgard (it is dead)Registered Userregular
I am sorry I should expand on that. 5 years spent now on an economy with the value of Hesse. with little to no end in sight.
I do not kid when I say that forgiving the entire debt and letting our politicians dealing with something other than Greece woul be very welcome indeed.
there is a bit of a refugee crisis going on, Putin is being a total dick and there are some internal issues we would very much like to get to one day.
The ECB did not cut funding. It merely denied additional funding. The Greek banks are solely alive because the ECB pumped 84 Billion Euros into them, and they have to up that number if they want to open on Monday. And the ECB basically said "This is starting to look like throwing away money, first get a deal, then we'll talk about more money"
The ECB did not cut funding. It merely denied additional funding. The Greek banks are solely alive because the ECB pumped 84 Billion Euros into them, and they have to up that number if they want to open on Monday. And the ECB basically said "This is starting to look like throwing away money, first get a deal, then we'll talk about more money"
Nah, what they did was use their position to put additional pressure on the greek government, at the expense of the greek people.
The ECB judged back in February that Greek bonds were no longer sufficient collateral for loans between the ECB and Greek banks. The reason is that all 3 agencies rate the Greek bonds as junk status, which makes them ineligible. They however offered to take collateral under the ELA program, which is meant as an emergency stopgap to stop bankruns in case a bank is failing.
This has now continued for 5 months, and the amount has been upped several times to the aforementioned 84B. As the more and more people took money out of Greek banks, this money is the only thing that has kept them afloat. The Greek banks are rumored to have less than 500 million euros left. Between all of them. An estimated 30% of their loans are nonperforming.
Even Central Banks just don't give away free money. They can loan money, but they expect it back. That kind of trust is incredibly important in a fractional banking system. If Greek bonds fail, the ECB loses 84B. And they don't want it to be more than that.
Setting aside the question EU members forgiving Greek debt setting a bad precedent, there is also a question if doing so wouldn't be a violation of EU treaty. EU member states are prohibited from assuming commitments and liabilities of other members without mutual financial guarantees. Effectively, the transfer of funds must include conditions and terms. Plus, the debtor remains liable even in the event of non-payment.
Any debt forgiveness would be a de facto assumption of the other nation's commitments. This doesn't apply to non-EU states or private entities, but since the vast majority of the debt is owned by EU states, it's rather academic.
Except that the ELA to Greece is provided by the Central Bank of Greece.
"Responsibility for the provision of ELA lies with the NCB(s) concerned. This means that any costs of, and the risks arising from, the provision of ELA are incurred by the relevant national central bank." Greece is on the hook for the ELA if Greek banks default because of bank runs. Instead, the ECB is taking actions which guarantee default.
So, the ECB is not even trying to fulfill its mission of maintaining inflation near 2%. It is every central bank's responsibility to prevent bank runs, which they have catastrophically failed at. They have rejected the mission of helping the eurozone economy grow and keeping unemployment low. What the fuck do they think their job actually is?
Except that the ELA to Greece is provided by the Central Bank of Greece.
"Responsibility for the provision of ELA lies with the NCB(s) concerned. This means that any costs of, and the risks arising from, the provision of ELA are incurred by the relevant national central bank." Greece is on the hook for the ELA if Greek banks default because of bank runs. Instead, the ECB is taking actions which guarantee default.
So, the ECB is not even trying to fulfill its mission of maintaining inflation near 2%. It is every central bank's responsibility to prevent bank runs, which they have catastrophically failed at. They have rejected the mission of helping the eurozone economy grow and keeping unemployment low. What the fuck do they think their job actually is?
The Governing Council of the ECB can override the ELA handout by an NCB if the amount is above 2B, the NCB has to get the money from the ECB.
The ECB has also been pretty on point with it's 2% inflation target:
Instead of cutting of just the last 2 years just after the last surge. The economy is unpredictable, and even running a massive QE program is still not increasing inflation.
The goal of the ECB is to provide stability in the Eurozone. That goes well beyond saving any bank.
Most other nations in the EU bailed out their banks by buying out bad debt / nationalizing (The Dutch did it for a total of 40 billion euros, or 10% of our GDP, and we expect to recover just over half of it), but in the Greek case that is not possible, because the bad debt is the thing that would pay for the buyout: Government Bonds.
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Okay.
Assuming the EU basically abandons Greece what do you think the reaction of Croatia and Bulgaria will be?
Do they support the austerity measures in the first place themselves? Do you think they might choose to leave?
How does this hurt those economies? What are the effects on the local regional economy?
What if a nation like China offered to bail out Greece?
austerity: both are dramatically poorer than Greece. It is hard to sympathize about pension cuts when your pensions are even lower to begin with. Bulgaria is additionally heavily dependent on Greek trade and the capital controls hurt it badly. still, they do have an obvious reason to stand with a small country resisting the tendency for Germany to prioritize its own concerns
my read is that China seems unlikely to be interested, nor Russia, since Greece is likely to remain politically affiliated to the EU regardless and also it's going to default. I am no IR expert though.
You don't really believe that, do you? He did it just to further his narrative of being the rebel that's being hated by 'the man'
I wonder why so many people fall for his transparent act
This doesn't really seem provable, or very likely.
Isn't it far more likely that Tsipras asked a member of his team who was unpopular with the EU to resign in order to smooth the way for new negotiations?
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
he can go on about international imbalances but not in a sufficiently Marxist way
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
I find it fairly easy to believe, especially if he was brought in from outside the financial bureaucracy. These finance ministers often live in a rarified world for the most part, and the general posturing of the Syriza government would seem repugnant to them.
Dunno, the guy is all about show. It's the typical southern european macho shtick, I know it from when I visit my relatives down there
Yeah that was ... odd.
I'm not sure how to interpret it but certainly the euro side seem understandably disgruntled.
Possibly gauging reaction to proposals they haven't finalised? It might make sense if the Greeks have a pretty good idea what they're willing to give ground on but aren't sure how much ground it's necessary to give to reach an agreement.
Although if that's the case at this point, well
Sounds like they turned up with the old proposals which is adding insult to injury really.
Not that I agree with austerity measures in this case, but they are either completely oblivious to how it play out in the rest of europe, politically, or they want to rile up the populace of the other countries so everything fits their "evil EU money terrorist" narrative
pleasepaypreacher.net
The latest proposal from EU actually contained few cuts (except for military spending) and instead were centred around tax increases, tax evasion measures, pension reforms and privatization.
4% in 2009, down to 2,3% in 2013, apparently. Don't know where they're now at.
Edit- OK, wiki has different numbers, but still: "Greece is the largest importer of conventional weapons in Europe and its military spending is the highest in the European Union (relative to G.D.P)."
Sounds like a good point to start cutting.
Yeah, there's a discrepancy there between the organizations. Military spending is just an easy target for cutting. My guess is that it really doesn't matter much. A lot of the current budget is probably vanishing in corrupt pockets.
both sides come with no new ideas.
but one side walked away from the talks trying iffy stuff while deadlines were on the table, had a referendum (which I might add again Varoufakis said 'might not be necessary *nudge* *nudge*) then came back to the table without any offers at the alotted time and then said "we'll do it live!" which is basically expected to be a revised version that was on the table they initially walked away from.
The other side also decided to freeze Greek banks as, basically, a big fuck you to the Greek government.
please explain what you mean by "freeze Greek banks".
Um, did you miss them cutting off bank financing to greek banks?
It's been kinda a thing.
Dunno how much Greece is currently actually spending (absolute or by GDP), but from my Greek friends the military is kind of a big deal; they really hate the Turks (for historical reasons and due to Cyprus).
Despite both Turkey and Greece being NATO countries, they apparently have their own mini cold war going on. It's a funny old world.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33437797
Ominous.
pleasepaypreacher.net
The ECB.
I do not kid when I say that forgiving the entire debt and letting our politicians dealing with something other than Greece woul be very welcome indeed.
there is a bit of a refugee crisis going on, Putin is being a total dick and there are some internal issues we would very much like to get to one day.
Its kinda funny, Greece might make a good ally for Russia (Mediterranean ports). However, they can't, due to their money woes help Greece.
That, and Turkey and Russia have been pretty chummy recently.
wait. were we not talking about two or more sides negotiating?
Nah, what they did was use their position to put additional pressure on the greek government, at the expense of the greek people.
It's not like they are cutting anyone else off.
The ECB judged back in February that Greek bonds were no longer sufficient collateral for loans between the ECB and Greek banks. The reason is that all 3 agencies rate the Greek bonds as junk status, which makes them ineligible. They however offered to take collateral under the ELA program, which is meant as an emergency stopgap to stop bankruns in case a bank is failing.
This has now continued for 5 months, and the amount has been upped several times to the aforementioned 84B. As the more and more people took money out of Greek banks, this money is the only thing that has kept them afloat. The Greek banks are rumored to have less than 500 million euros left. Between all of them. An estimated 30% of their loans are nonperforming.
Even Central Banks just don't give away free money. They can loan money, but they expect it back. That kind of trust is incredibly important in a fractional banking system. If Greek bonds fail, the ECB loses 84B. And they don't want it to be more than that.
Any debt forgiveness would be a de facto assumption of the other nation's commitments. This doesn't apply to non-EU states or private entities, but since the vast majority of the debt is owned by EU states, it's rather academic.
"Responsibility for the provision of ELA lies with the NCB(s) concerned. This means that any costs of, and the risks arising from, the provision of ELA are incurred by the relevant national central bank." Greece is on the hook for the ELA if Greek banks default because of bank runs. Instead, the ECB is taking actions which guarantee default.
So, the ECB is not even trying to fulfill its mission of maintaining inflation near 2%. It is every central bank's responsibility to prevent bank runs, which they have catastrophically failed at. They have rejected the mission of helping the eurozone economy grow and keeping unemployment low. What the fuck do they think their job actually is?
The Governing Council of the ECB can override the ELA handout by an NCB if the amount is above 2B, the NCB has to get the money from the ECB.
The ECB has also been pretty on point with it's 2% inflation target:
The goal of the ECB is to provide stability in the Eurozone. That goes well beyond saving any bank.
Most other nations in the EU bailed out their banks by buying out bad debt / nationalizing (The Dutch did it for a total of 40 billion euros, or 10% of our GDP, and we expect to recover just over half of it), but in the Greek case that is not possible, because the bad debt is the thing that would pay for the buyout: Government Bonds.