Bear in mind that polls have consistently underestimated Democrats in Nevada for the past six years. Reid was trailing Angle by a point or three in almost all of the September/October polls, but ended up winning 50-45.
No reason not to throw your all into helping out. Every vote matters.
That's how Reid's been able to defy those polls supposedly. Very well-oiled machine.
And Hispanics are hard to poll because of the language thing. Seems like Spanish only are a bit more liberal than those who speak English.
I'm actually using Duolingo to try and remember enough Spanish from high school to be able to talk to non-English speaking Latino voters. Noticed an overwhelming tendency, especially among the men, to just say "No." or "No thank you." if you came at them in English. I was paired up with a Brazilian dude, and while he said that him talking to them probably sounded like a child, but the amount of people that said "No." when approached in English by him, that then opened up and had a conversation and even registered sometimes was ridiculous. There was a severe lack of Spanish speakers too. To the point where me knowing common words and having okay pronunciation impressed some of the other volunteers, which really, wtf. I'm not even fluent enough anymore to hold a basic conversation, but I think I can get a script for canvassing and some conversational Spanish down before next time.
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Giggles_FunsworthBlight on DiscourseBay Area SprawlRegistered Userregular
edited September 2016
Also trying to get in touch with the organizers to start getting some basic data collection and analysis going, and maybe throw some technology at voter engagement by the next election. It's well oiled in that the communication and bodies were there, but it wasn't run as well as other volunteer efforts I've helped organize and manage in the past.
Giggles_Funsworth on
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lonelyahavaCall me Ahava ~~She/Her~~Move to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
when I was a cashier at my local Walmart, I found that even knowing enough Spanish to say "hello" "thank you" and "this much money" was enough for me to guarantee that I had every single Spanish speaking person in my line. I got hugs almost every time by this one lady who didn't understand her WIC checks for the baby food, so I did my best to explain the stages of the food in my incredibly broken Spanish.
And this was before Duolingo was a thing and I'd only ever taken French language classes.
Having even a minimally bi-lingual GOTV team is going to be crucial, I think, going forward.
when I was a cashier at my local Walmart, I found that even knowing enough Spanish to say "hello" "thank you" and "this much money" was enough for me to guarantee that I had every single Spanish speaking person in my line. I got hugs almost every time by this one lady who didn't understand her WIC checks for the baby food, so I did my best to explain the stages of the food in my incredibly broken Spanish.
And this was before Duolingo was a thing and I'd only ever taken French language classes.
Having even a minimally bi-lingual GOTV team is going to be crucial, I think, going forward.
Yeah, it's a major falling that I'm kind of shocked by. My Spanish is mostly hindered because I've taken French more recently. I keep switching pronunciation and words.
According to the Observer, McCrory’s camp planted three questions under the guise of being presubmitted by that newspaper at a recent event for Charlotte business owners. When editorial page editor Taylor Batten attempted to step in and ask a question, McCrory brushed him off, claiming the previous trio of questions was enough from the state’s most-read newspaper.
When the moderator asked how to get started, McCrory said, “Anything you like. No filter here.” Sure, who needs a filter when you posed the questions yourself?
When I tried to ask McCrory a question, the filter went up. “We’ve got three Observer questions answered already. I think you guys dominate the news enough.”
Of course, those weren’t Observer questions. They were softballs from his staff about what he wanted to do with his next term; how he wanted to reduce the state’s rape kit backlog; and how the state crime lab performed under McCrory’s opponent, Roy Cooper.
Batten confirmed the questions were planted by the McCrory staff in speaking with Ricky Diaz, a campaign spokesperson. Diaz claimed the questions were inserted as an attempt to, in his words, “keep the conversation format going.”
knitdanIn ur baseKillin ur guysRegistered Userregular
I um put it in here because we don't have a general politics thread and it no longer pertains to the presidential election and it's not really a story about the media and I thought maybe he was still running for reelection in jersey so here we are.
“I was quick when I came in here, I’m twice as quick now”
-Indiana Solo, runner of blades
Well finally submitted my absentee ballot request online because I'm still in a position where it's not feasible to change my registration. My over out date is such, that I had to use my employer address (thank god they led us do that) to avoid a situation where the ballot arrives after I move out.
Anyways, took a look at my lower ticket stuff.
I'm still in Brat's district, I see he has a democrat running against, nice to see that the democrats did find someone to run. Brat will probably win because my current district has issues, but who knows, he is such a moron that he might lose. That said I know absolutely noting about Eileen Bedell right now, other than she was an attorney. Granted Brat is so god awful, it's going to be hard for anyone to find a worse candidate. Also worth noting noting we have a Mike Dickinson running as independent Green (whatever the fuck that means), who own a strip club (Christ, this fucking election, is also kind of surreal at the lower races).
I don't like either of the ballot issues.
We have the right to work one, which I'm voting no out of principle. I hope it fails, I also suspect that it might get deemed to be unconstitutional. I still worry it will pass overwhelmingly because the right has been successful in making people buy into the idiotic notion that strong unions are bad for them and believe that big business won't fuck them over, despite the fact that unchecked big business is destroying this country.
We also have another that would give tax breaks to the surviving spouses of emergency response personnel and cops killed in the line of duty. Given that we have a GOP led legislature and Virginia republicans are particularly vile, I wouldn't be surprised if there was something extremely odious tucked away in this thing. Even if there wasn't anything shitty in it, I'm going to vote no because even if those spouse need help, I don't feel it's appropriate make tax matters like that part of the state constitution. I feel we should have a very very strict criteria on what parts of taxes get enshrined in a constitution and that should include making sure they exist (revenue is needed) and preventing the one percenters from weaseling out of their fair share. Everything else tax related should be done with regular laws, so that can be adjusted or removed on an as needed basis, which constitutional amendments will not allow. I also suspect that this probably won't do much to help the group it's being advertised to help.
Anybody here live around Frederick, MD? I saw highway signs on my way back from Alexandria today that said "Cox for Congress: The Time to Widen I-270 is now!"
Which seemed odd to me on several levels, since as a Pittsburgher where 3-laned highways are pretty rare even in our most clogged thruways, I-270 seemed plenty big to me. Of course i came in at 11 AM on a Friday and left around the same time on a Saturday, so that had something to do with having an easy time on there.
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jmcdonaldI voted, did you?DC(ish)Registered Userregular
Anybody here live around Frederick, MD? I saw highway signs on my way back from Alexandria today that said "Cox for Congress: The Time to Widen I-270 is now!"
Which seemed odd to me on several levels, since as a Pittsburgher where 3-laned highways are pretty rare even in our most clogged thruways, I-270 seemed plenty big to me. Of course i came in at 11 AM on a Friday and left around the same time on a Saturday, so that had something to do with having an easy time on there.
270 between 7AM and 11AM and then 3PM to 7PM on any given weekday is a parking lot. the same can be said on the occasional weekend.
the Spur is even worse.
IIRC it sees over a quarter million vehicles per day.
Gee, the Republican attack ads for Congressional candidates only accuse them of supporting Pelosi's liberal agenda instead of the Obama-Pelosi liberal agenda all of a sudden.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Gee, the Republican attack ads for Congressional candidates only accuse them of supporting Pelosi's liberal agenda instead of the Obama-Pelosi liberal agenda all of a sudden.
Does anybody even really remember Pelosi's agenda anymore? 2010 feels like forever ago, and most of the stuff we got out of that was good stuff for Americans who aren't deep in the right-wing infosphere.
Does anybody even really remember Pelosi's agenda anymore? 2010 feels like forever ago, and most of the stuff we got out of that was good stuff for Americans who aren't deep in the right-wing infosphere.
Like Soros, Pelosi is one of those boogey(wo)men who makes the news all the time in the right-wing infoloop that these ads are aimed at.
Does anybody even really remember Pelosi's agenda anymore? 2010 feels like forever ago, and most of the stuff we got out of that was good stuff for Americans who aren't deep in the right-wing infosphere.
Like Soros, Pelosi is one of those boogey(wo)men who makes the news all the time in the right-wing infoloop that these ads are aimed at.
She represents San Francisco, you see, and is therefore the highest ranking (visible) member of the LGBT-Illuminati's shadow government.
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Andy JoeWe claim the land for the highlord!The AdirondacksRegistered Userregular
So Harry Reid's retiring. Has there been any discussion on who will lead the Senate Democrats after him?
Current polls out of Nevada aren't great! Would recommend anybody else who can get out that way to knock on doors do so.
Any idea why? Is it Reid retirement related?
Yes. Possibly most expensive race in the US, Kochs are shoving a ton of money at Heck's election. Additionally Reno (Washoe County) may decide the election for Nevada/the Presidency.
Current polls out of Nevada aren't great! Would recommend anybody else who can get out that way to knock on doors do so.
Any idea why? Is it Reid retirement related?
NV has been pretty much a true toss up this entire race, leaning back and forth with the tides.
It's tended to lean a couple points blue in presidential elections relative to the nation, but usually polls are a bit closer and then Dems overperform in the election itself. So Hillary's probably doing a little worse than we would expect in NV, but not by a surprising amount. I don't think we need to attribute it to any single big event.
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Giggles_FunsworthBlight on DiscourseBay Area SprawlRegistered Userregular
Current polls out of Nevada aren't great! Would recommend anybody else who can get out that way to knock on doors do so.
Any idea why? Is it Reid retirement related?
NV has been pretty much a true toss up this entire race, leaning back and forth with the tides.
It's tended to lean a couple points blue in presidential elections relative to the nation, but usually polls are a bit closer and then Dems overperform in the election itself. So Hillary's probably doing a little worse than we would expect in NV, but not by a surprising amount. I don't think we need to attribute it to any single big event.
Not one big event, but poll trends indicate the ads have been shifting the tide in the opposition's direction.
Current polls out of Nevada aren't great! Would recommend anybody else who can get out that way to knock on doors do so.
Any idea why? Is it Reid retirement related?
NV has been pretty much a true toss up this entire race, leaning back and forth with the tides.
It's tended to lean a couple points blue in presidential elections relative to the nation, but usually polls are a bit closer and then Dems overperform in the election itself. So Hillary's probably doing a little worse than we would expect in NV, but not by a surprising amount. I don't think we need to attribute it to any single big event.
Not one big event, but poll trends indicate the ads have been shifting the tide in the opposition's direction.
There's a decent chance polls are under counting (heavily D skewing) Spanish speaking Latinos since they have in every recent Nevada election. But its probably best to assume they aren't both because hubris is bad and because there are several House seats and the Electoral votes up for grabs too. Maybe you end up running up the Senate score more than absolutely necessary and the "punishment" is Hillary also carries the state and Rosen beats Tarkanian for Heck's old seat, and Ruben Kihuen beats Hardy in the 4th.
Current polls out of Nevada aren't great! Would recommend anybody else who can get out that way to knock on doors do so.
Any idea why? Is it Reid retirement related?
NV has been pretty much a true toss up this entire race, leaning back and forth with the tides.
It's tended to lean a couple points blue in presidential elections relative to the nation, but usually polls are a bit closer and then Dems overperform in the election itself. So Hillary's probably doing a little worse than we would expect in NV, but not by a surprising amount. I don't think we need to attribute it to any single big event.
Not one big event, but poll trends indicate the ads have been shifting the tide in the opposition's direction.
There's a decent chance polls are under counting (heavily D skewing) Spanish speaking Latinos since they have in every recent Nevada election. But its probably best to assume they aren't both because hubris is bad and because there are several House seats and the Electoral votes up for grabs too. Maybe you end up running up the Senate score more than absolutely necessary and the "punishment" is Hillary also carries the state and Rosen beats Tarkanian for Heck's old seat, and Ruben Kihuen beats Hardy in the 4th.
In total agreement based on my experience canvassing, but better safe than sorry. And if you live in the Bay Area like me it's probably a better use of your time than canvassing locally.
Current polls out of Nevada aren't great! Would recommend anybody else who can get out that way to knock on doors do so.
Any idea why? Is it Reid retirement related?
NV has been pretty much a true toss up this entire race, leaning back and forth with the tides.
It's tended to lean a couple points blue in presidential elections relative to the nation, but usually polls are a bit closer and then Dems overperform in the election itself. So Hillary's probably doing a little worse than we would expect in NV, but not by a surprising amount. I don't think we need to attribute it to any single big event.
Not one big event, but poll trends indicate the ads have been shifting the tide in the opposition's direction.
There's a decent chance polls are under counting (heavily D skewing) Spanish speaking Latinos since they have in every recent Nevada election. But its probably best to assume they aren't both because hubris is bad and because there are several House seats and the Electoral votes up for grabs too. Maybe you end up running up the Senate score more than absolutely necessary and the "punishment" is Hillary also carries the state and Rosen beats Tarkanian for Heck's old seat, and Ruben Kihuen beats Hardy in the 4th.
In total agreement based on my experience canvassing, but better safe than sorry. And if you live in the Bay Area like me it's probably a better use of your time than canvassing locally.
I'm basically using the same logic except replace Bay with Boston and Nevada with New Hampshire.
And Reid's machine is super effective. He out performed the polls by like 7 points six years ago.
I'm skeptical based on what I've seen, but this is the first time I've been out that way so I'm not sure what the bar for "effective" is. There's a worrisome amount of improvement that could be done with regards to analytics, more targeted canvassing, having Spanish speakers actually on hand where they're needed, etc.
And Reid's machine is super effective. He out performed the polls by like 7 points six years ago.
Is the new candidate using the same machine though?
I don't have as much faith in Reid's machine as others in the thread do, but presumably yes.
It's not like Reid is just going to sit out this election now that he's retiring, he's still going to be busting his ass. We won't really see the post-Reid electoral climate in Nevada until 2018 or 2020.
Posts
I'm actually using Duolingo to try and remember enough Spanish from high school to be able to talk to non-English speaking Latino voters. Noticed an overwhelming tendency, especially among the men, to just say "No." or "No thank you." if you came at them in English. I was paired up with a Brazilian dude, and while he said that him talking to them probably sounded like a child, but the amount of people that said "No." when approached in English by him, that then opened up and had a conversation and even registered sometimes was ridiculous. There was a severe lack of Spanish speakers too. To the point where me knowing common words and having okay pronunciation impressed some of the other volunteers, which really, wtf. I'm not even fluent enough anymore to hold a basic conversation, but I think I can get a script for canvassing and some conversational Spanish down before next time.
And this was before Duolingo was a thing and I'd only ever taken French language classes.
Having even a minimally bi-lingual GOTV team is going to be crucial, I think, going forward.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Yeah, it's a major falling that I'm kind of shocked by. My Spanish is mostly hindered because I've taken French more recently. I keep switching pronunciation and words.
Just...wow.
McGinty +5 in PA-Sen
Okay I finally watched that ad spot
Yes sir I will donate to you now mmmhmm
Edit oh shit on his site he mentions keeping domestic violence victim addresses confidential this guy is hitting my buttons
This may or may not lead to anything, but it seems worth noting.
-Indiana Solo, runner of blades
There was an article a few pages ago in the POTUS thread suggesting this was known to come out and why he wasn't picked for VP.
Aww, buddy... *fuzzes Christie's hair*
Sure, that must be why.
He's term limited. New Jersey is weird and hold's its elections in off years, aka 2009, 2013, 2017, etc. Same with Virginia.
Unless things go completely and totally pear-shaped and we don't go fully blue.
So we will get John Carney for Gov, and Lisa Blunt-Rochester for Congress.
I'm happy with this.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
-Indiana Solo, runner of blades
Anyways, took a look at my lower ticket stuff.
I'm still in Brat's district, I see he has a democrat running against, nice to see that the democrats did find someone to run. Brat will probably win because my current district has issues, but who knows, he is such a moron that he might lose. That said I know absolutely noting about Eileen Bedell right now, other than she was an attorney. Granted Brat is so god awful, it's going to be hard for anyone to find a worse candidate. Also worth noting noting we have a Mike Dickinson running as independent Green (whatever the fuck that means), who own a strip club (Christ, this fucking election, is also kind of surreal at the lower races).
I don't like either of the ballot issues.
We have the right to work one, which I'm voting no out of principle. I hope it fails, I also suspect that it might get deemed to be unconstitutional. I still worry it will pass overwhelmingly because the right has been successful in making people buy into the idiotic notion that strong unions are bad for them and believe that big business won't fuck them over, despite the fact that unchecked big business is destroying this country.
We also have another that would give tax breaks to the surviving spouses of emergency response personnel and cops killed in the line of duty. Given that we have a GOP led legislature and Virginia republicans are particularly vile, I wouldn't be surprised if there was something extremely odious tucked away in this thing. Even if there wasn't anything shitty in it, I'm going to vote no because even if those spouse need help, I don't feel it's appropriate make tax matters like that part of the state constitution. I feel we should have a very very strict criteria on what parts of taxes get enshrined in a constitution and that should include making sure they exist (revenue is needed) and preventing the one percenters from weaseling out of their fair share. Everything else tax related should be done with regular laws, so that can be adjusted or removed on an as needed basis, which constitutional amendments will not allow. I also suspect that this probably won't do much to help the group it's being advertised to help.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Fracking awesome, I;m going to send that to my military friends.
Which seemed odd to me on several levels, since as a Pittsburgher where 3-laned highways are pretty rare even in our most clogged thruways, I-270 seemed plenty big to me. Of course i came in at 11 AM on a Friday and left around the same time on a Saturday, so that had something to do with having an easy time on there.
270 between 7AM and 11AM and then 3PM to 7PM on any given weekday is a parking lot. the same can be said on the occasional weekend.
the Spur is even worse.
IIRC it sees over a quarter million vehicles per day.
Shocked it's not Hillary Pelosi
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Like Soros, Pelosi is one of those boogey(wo)men who makes the news all the time in the right-wing infoloop that these ads are aimed at.
She represents San Francisco, you see, and is therefore the highest ranking (visible) member of the LGBT-Illuminati's shadow government.
Any idea why? Is it Reid retirement related?
Yes. Possibly most expensive race in the US, Kochs are shoving a ton of money at Heck's election. Additionally Reno (Washoe County) may decide the election for Nevada/the Presidency.
NV has been pretty much a true toss up this entire race, leaning back and forth with the tides.
It's tended to lean a couple points blue in presidential elections relative to the nation, but usually polls are a bit closer and then Dems overperform in the election itself. So Hillary's probably doing a little worse than we would expect in NV, but not by a surprising amount. I don't think we need to attribute it to any single big event.
Not one big event, but poll trends indicate the ads have been shifting the tide in the opposition's direction.
There's a decent chance polls are under counting (heavily D skewing) Spanish speaking Latinos since they have in every recent Nevada election. But its probably best to assume they aren't both because hubris is bad and because there are several House seats and the Electoral votes up for grabs too. Maybe you end up running up the Senate score more than absolutely necessary and the "punishment" is Hillary also carries the state and Rosen beats Tarkanian for Heck's old seat, and Ruben Kihuen beats Hardy in the 4th.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
In total agreement based on my experience canvassing, but better safe than sorry. And if you live in the Bay Area like me it's probably a better use of your time than canvassing locally.
I'm basically using the same logic except replace Bay with Boston and Nevada with New Hampshire.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
I'm skeptical based on what I've seen, but this is the first time I've been out that way so I'm not sure what the bar for "effective" is. There's a worrisome amount of improvement that could be done with regards to analytics, more targeted canvassing, having Spanish speakers actually on hand where they're needed, etc.
Is the new candidate using the same machine though?
I don't have as much faith in Reid's machine as others in the thread do, but presumably yes.
It's not like Reid is just going to sit out this election now that he's retiring, he's still going to be busting his ass. We won't really see the post-Reid electoral climate in Nevada until 2018 or 2020.