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Canadian Federal by elections 9/17/2007
Jean
Heartbroken papa bearGatineau, QuébecRegistered User regular
Heartbroken papa bearGatineau, QuébecRegistered User regular
As you may know they're is gonna be by elections in 3 Québec ridings next Monday. This is gonna be interesting to watch, this will tell us how well each party is doing. The 3 ridings in contest are very different from each other : Outremont is a urban, multiethnic riding in the centre of the island of Montréal, St Hyacinthe is a suburban riding in the ''450'' (The QC equivalent of the 905) while Roberval is a rural riding located in the separatist heartland of Lac St Jean. Both St Hyacinthe and Roberval are 95%+ french speaking.
In 2006, Outremont voted for the Liberals as usual while St Hyacinthe and Roberval both voted Bloc. In the last provincials, Outremont voted Liberal , St Hyacinthe went ADQ and Roberval was won by the PQ.
If this poll (in french) is to be believed, Roberval and Outremont will change allegiance Monday.
Voting intention
Outremont
NDP 38%
Liberal 32%
Bloc 14%
Green 8%
Conservative 7%
Other 1%
Roberval
Conservative 43%
Bloc 37%
Liberal 12%
NDP 4%
Green 4%
St Hyacinthe
Bloc 49%
Conservative 32%
NDP 7%
Green 6%
Liberal 5%
Other 1%
Interesting to see all 3 ridings going into a different direction than in the last provincials.
The Conservatives could had done a lot better tough if it wasn't for Afghanistan. As usual the Québécois are very strongly opposed to war and this is hurting the CPC. Asides from that they are hitting all the right notes with the Québec's electorate. Canada involvment in the afghan war cannot end soon enough if the only thing considered is Conservative's electoral fortunes.
The Bloc must be thankful for that because this is the only thing they have left to whine about. Even then, their support is still slowly but surely eroding.
The Liberals do not profit from this, however, because they are still seen as untrustworthy hypocrites by french speaking Québécois (myself included, to be perfectly honest). Dion is performing horribly in his own province and that doest bode well for his leadership.. altough no matter who the leader is, the Liberals are not gonna get popular anytime soon here. In French speaking areas of the province, the Liberals are now barely better off than your average 3rd party. Trudeau must be rolling in his grave.
Jack Layton must been so joyous right now, if Thomas Mulclair do win in Outremont it would be only the second victory of the NDP EVER in Québec. It would also be the only the 2nd time since Confederation than Outremont vote anything else than Liberal. That goes to show how badly the Liberals are doing.
In 2006, Outremont voted for the Liberals as usual while St Hyacinthe and Roberval both voted Bloc. In the last provincials, Outremont voted Liberal , St Hyacinthe went ADQ and Roberval was won by the PQ.
If this poll (in french) is to be believed, Roberval and Outremont will change allegiance Monday.
Voting intention
Outremont
NDP 38%
Liberal 32%
Bloc 14%
Green 8%
Conservative 7%
Other 1%
Roberval
Conservative 43%
Bloc 37%
Liberal 12%
NDP 4%
Green 4%
St Hyacinthe
Bloc 49%
Conservative 32%
NDP 7%
Green 6%
Liberal 5%
Other 1%
Interesting to see all 3 ridings going into a different direction than in the last provincials.
The Conservatives could had done a lot better tough if it wasn't for Afghanistan. As usual the Québécois are very strongly opposed to war and this is hurting the CPC. Asides from that they are hitting all the right notes with the Québec's electorate. Canada involvment in the afghan war cannot end soon enough if the only thing considered is Conservative's electoral fortunes.
The Bloc must be thankful for that because this is the only thing they have left to whine about. Even then, their support is still slowly but surely eroding.
The Liberals do not profit from this, however, because they are still seen as untrustworthy hypocrites by french speaking Québécois (myself included, to be perfectly honest). Dion is performing horribly in his own province and that doest bode well for his leadership.. altough no matter who the leader is, the Liberals are not gonna get popular anytime soon here. In French speaking areas of the province, the Liberals are now barely better off than your average 3rd party. Trudeau must be rolling in his grave.
Jack Layton must been so joyous right now, if Thomas Mulclair do win in Outremont it would be only the second victory of the NDP EVER in Québec. It would also be the only the 2nd time since Confederation than Outremont vote anything else than Liberal. That goes to show how badly the Liberals are doing.
"You won't destroy us, You won't destroy our democracy. We are a small but proud nation. No one can bomb us to silence. No one can scare us from being Norway. This evening and tonight, we'll take care of each other. That's what we do best when attacked'' - Jens Stoltenberg
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As for the Liberals, I don't think they've had quite enough of an ass kicking to really clean out the party to bring it back around to their stated principles. The Conservatives had this a while back to good effect and the Republicans down south are long overdue.
edit: Yay - Canadian politics thread!
If you ever need to talk to someone, feel free to message me. Yes, that includes you.
Dont look at me, Québec and Alberta has done their part! Libs still poll very high in Ontario tough
Yup, tough Outremont is by nature a leftist , federalist riding so thats the type of riding the NDP HAS to perform well in. They are scoring big points due to their position on Afghanistan. BTW they did 12.7% in '06 they're.
Interestingly they are scoring their highest among the french speakers in this riding (leading the liberals 42-22) . Their lead is much narrower among english speakers (35-31) and the liberals still leads among the immigrants (44-34). 41%(!!!) of those who voted Bloc in '06 intend to vote NDP this time.
It also helps the NDP than the local Lib candidate is like their leader, an elitist intellectual that do not know how to connect with the ''average Joe'' while the NDP one is highly charismatic.
I highly doubt it. Whoever calls or forces (through non-confidence) the next election is going to be hammered for looking power hungry, and just for calling the election. It seems the average Canadian doesn't want a federal elections terribly frequently...
The one big downside for Harper in that strategy (even though I believe that yes, he's not wanting to call one himself) is that if this apparent weakness in Dion's leadership (or just the Liberal party as a whole) starts to ebb (either by the Liberals getting a more persuasive Leader or the party itself pulling through some good byelection/election wins) then the Conservatives won't have that advantage of a weaker opposition and will have to run on the strength of their leadership and policies. Considering Harper decided to extend the time when Parliament reopens to start with a throne speech, I think he's not confident enough to run just on his record, so it's putting him in a rock-and-a-hard-place situation.
Currently DMing: None
Characters
[5e] Dural Melairkyn - AC 18 | HP 40 | Melee +5/1d8+3 | Spell +4/DC 12
Roberval
Libéral Louise Boulanger 1 892 9,1
Bloc Québécois Céline Houde 5 774 27,8
Conservateur Denis Lebel 12 250 59,0
Outremont
Libéral Jocelyn Coulon 569 29,5
Conservateur Gilles Duguay 172 8,9
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson 159 8,2
NPD-Nouveau Parti démocratique Thomas Mulcair 915 47,5
Awesome