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Democratic Primaries: Pennsylvania, key hellhole state
Irond Will
Super Moderator, Moderator mod
Super Moderator, Moderator mod
Continue your primary talk here.
Now with poll
Current results:
Rasmussen 04/20 - 04/20 722 LV 49 44 Clinton +5.0
Zogby Tracking 04/19 - 04/20 602 LV 48 42 Clinton +6.0
Suffolk 04/19 - 04/20 600 LV 52 42 Clinton +10.0
PPP (D 04/19 - 04/20 2338 LV 46 49 Obama +3.0
Strategic Vision (R) 04/18 - 04/20 LV 48 41 Clinton +7.0
Quinnipiac 04/18 - 04/20 1027 LV 51 44 Clinton +7.0
SurveyUSA 04/18 - 04/20 LV 50 44 Clinton +6.0
Mason-Dixon 04/17 - 04/18 625 LV 48 43 Clinton +5.0
Now with poll
Current results:
Rasmussen 04/20 - 04/20 722 LV 49 44 Clinton +5.0
Zogby Tracking 04/19 - 04/20 602 LV 48 42 Clinton +6.0
Suffolk 04/19 - 04/20 600 LV 52 42 Clinton +10.0
PPP (D 04/19 - 04/20 2338 LV 46 49 Obama +3.0
Strategic Vision (R) 04/18 - 04/20 LV 48 41 Clinton +7.0
Quinnipiac 04/18 - 04/20 1027 LV 51 44 Clinton +7.0
SurveyUSA 04/18 - 04/20 LV 50 44 Clinton +6.0
Mason-Dixon 04/17 - 04/18 625 LV 48 43 Clinton +5.0
Irond Will on
This discussion has been closed.
Posts
Thought you guys might want a poll
Clinton wins by 2 points. The first two days of coverage are about Hillary's defeat of Obama's money machine. The race continues onto NC and Indiana. By Friday evening, newscasts start pointing out that, despite her victory, the delegate math just got much worse for her. By May 1st, Obama finally goes ahead of Clinton in number of superdelegates (he's only behind her by about 25 now).
On May 6th, Obama wins NC by 13, and Clinton wins Indiana by less than 1 percent. She drops out of the race by May 10th.
Yes, it's all pure speculation, but gosh darn it, I like it.
I'd feel stupid contributing to the campaign of a woman with Hillary's kind of money.
It's like, "Hey Ms. future billionaire, can I pay for the gas in your hummer?"
There's a reason she's not donating any more money to her campaign. As is, unless she manages to win the nomination she's going to take a loss of $5M - no one is going to give her money to pay back that loan to herself. Any of her own money that she puts into the campaign at this point will never be seen again.
It's bitter.
We lost the pin in the wash.
"I'm willing to destroy the Democratic Party to win, but I'll be damned if I sell off some of my stocks and bonds!"
But yeah, I honestly don't know how PA will turn out. Hillary isn't as good at pretending to be a "Good Ol' Boy" as she seems to think she is.
I'm pretty sure she mentally wrote off that 5 million as lost money, but I'm pretty shocked anyone is doing work for her without cash in hand at this point. She's proven she has no problems letting bills slip unless the debtor goes to the press with it.
That said, Clinton by 4-8, I'm seeing backlash against the blatant media hits being put out on Obama right now.
If only because that fucking travesty of a debate happened last week when it had no right to
Put a support our troops magnet and at least 1 flag sticker for every 300lbs of car body weight first.
It's hard to believe there's only one day left before this primary. It feels like it's been going on forever.
Of course, I'm a pessimist.
These kids just don't appreciate the inevitability of DOOM like we do.
Because I have hope.
Oh god, I would love to see some bloggers start talking about Hillary putting her money where her mouth is, and having the MSM pick it up.
Yeah.
We were in the Pennsylvania stretch when the Reverend Wright thing broke.
That feels like ages ago.
Not Obama.
I spent the weekend in Portland registering Obama voters, though.
Really I just mean 8.
Basically, I predict most of the "undecideds" going to Hillary. It's always hard to assess late-deciders, but it's generally a safe bet that they're low-information voters who will tend to vote along the lines of very very early polling (which was heavily Hillary).
Projection, DO YOU UNDERSTAND IT.
This is a sitcom. Some form of really amazing and subtle live action comedy. Right?
Well yeah.
No sense in giving up.
Averaging out the polls in the OP gives Hillary a 5.4 point victory. Of course, there are a lot of undecideds, and undecideds will break strongly for Hillary, because they're just the people who haven't bothered paying attention for the entire goddamned campaign and will choose Clinton in the polling booth because they don't recognize that funny-looking O-word, except maybe it sorta sounds like that Osama guy, you know?
Anyway, if you assume the undecideds in each case will break for Hillary by a 30-point margin, and you re-average the results, you wind up with Hillary winning by 8. I'm still going to go conservative and predict a 10-point win, and I still think double digits for Hillary is basically a coin-flip.
Maddie: "I am not!"
Riley: "You're a marsupial!"
Maddie: "I am a placental mammal!"
Really?
You haven't seen the travesty?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDap46WOCmA&eurl=http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/
Also, Clinton's campaign has spoken and says it's a positive ad, and it's totally valid. Which is the same thing Penn said after the 3am ad.
I feel lucky that my brain neither shut down nor insisted that I murder them in public view.