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Democratic Primaries: Pennsylvania, key hellhole state

Irond WillIrond Will DragonmasterCambridge. MASuper Moderator, Moderator mod
edited April 2008 in Debate and/or Discourse
Continue your primary talk here.

Now with poll

Current results:

Rasmussen 04/20 - 04/20 722 LV 49 44 Clinton +5.0
Zogby Tracking 04/19 - 04/20 602 LV 48 42 Clinton +6.0
Suffolk 04/19 - 04/20 600 LV 52 42 Clinton +10.0
PPP (D 04/19 - 04/20 2338 LV 46 49 Obama +3.0
Strategic Vision (R) 04/18 - 04/20 LV 48 41 Clinton +7.0
Quinnipiac 04/18 - 04/20 1027 LV 51 44 Clinton +7.0
SurveyUSA 04/18 - 04/20 LV 50 44 Clinton +6.0
Mason-Dixon 04/17 - 04/18 625 LV 48 43 Clinton +5.0

Irond Will on
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Posts

  • SalSal Damnedest Little Fellow Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Alas, Primary thread, cut down in the prime of youth...

    It's hard to believe there's only one day left before this primary. It feels like it's been going on forever.

  • ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    I almost went Clinton 12-16, but settled for 8-12.

    Of course, I'm a pessimist.

  • SpeakerSpeaker Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Thanatos wrote: »
    I almost went Clinton 12-16, but settled for 8-12.

    Of course, I'm a pessimist.

    These kids just don't appreciate the inevitability of DOOM like we do.

    Being walkers with the dawn and morning,
    Walkers with the sun and morning, we are not afraid of night,
    Nor days of gloom, nor darkness -
    Being walkers with the sun and morning.
  • SavantSavant Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    I don't see why you guys think double digits is so likely. Even the external polls have it a lot closer than that.

  • SalSal Damnedest Little Fellow Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Oh, and I voted Clinton 4-8.

    Because I have hope.

  • Gnome-InterruptusGnome-Interruptus Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Speaker wrote: »
    Hedgethorn wrote: »
    Speaker wrote: »
    Irond Will wrote: »
    Like personal wealth? Probably. Hillary's primary budget is shrinking though, owing to the fact that she's relied upon big donors who maxed out early.

    I'd feel stupid contributing to the campaign of a woman with Hillary's kind of money.

    It's like, "Hey Ms. future billionaire, can I pay for the gas in your hummer?"

    There's a reason she's not donating any more money to her campaign. As is, unless she manages to win the nomination she's going to take a loss of $5M - no one is going to give her money to pay back that loan to herself. Any of her own money that she puts into the campaign at this point will never be seen again.

    "I'm willing to destroy the Democratic Party to win, but I'll be damned if I sell off some of my stocks and bonds!"

    Oh god, I would love to see some bloggers start talking about Hillary putting her money where her mouth is, and having the MSM pick it up.

    steam_sig.png
    MWO: Adamski
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  • SpeakerSpeaker Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Sal wrote: »
    Alas, Primary thread, cut down in the prime of youth...

    It's hard to believe there's only one day left before this primary. It feels like it's been going on forever.

    Yeah.

    We were in the Pennsylvania stretch when the Reverend Wright thing broke.

    That feels like ages ago.

    Being walkers with the dawn and morning,
    Walkers with the sun and morning, we are not afraid of night,
    Nor days of gloom, nor darkness -
    Being walkers with the sun and morning.
  • wwtMaskwwtMask Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    I am filled with pessimism and resignation. Please prove me wrong, PA.

    When he dies, I hope they write "Worst Affirmative Action Hire, EVER" on his grave. His corpse should be trolled.
    Twitter - @liberaltruths | Google+ - http://gplus.to/wwtMask | Occupy Tallahassee
  • HozHoz Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Savant wrote: »
    I don't see why you guys think double digits is so likely. Even the external polls have it a lot closer than that.
    It's really about who the undecideds will break for.

    Not Obama.

  • Gnome-InterruptusGnome-Interruptus Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    I wonder if there might be a certain number of Hillary supporters that might vote Obama not because they dislike Hillary, but because they honestly want the primary to be over, and have accepted the cold hard truth of the delegate math.

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  • ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Speaker wrote: »
    Thanatos wrote: »
    I almost went Clinton 12-16, but settled for 8-12.

    Of course, I'm a pessimist.
    These kids just don't appreciate the inevitability of DOOM like we do.
    Pretty much.

    I spent the weekend in Portland registering Obama voters, though.

  • QuidQuid The Fifth Horseman Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Aw shit, I meant Clinton 8 - 12, not 4 - 8.

    Really I just mean 8.

    PSN: allenquid
  • ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Savant wrote: »
    I don't see why you guys think double digits is so likely. Even the external polls have it a lot closer than that.
    Because the first two presidential elections I voted in were 2000 and 2004.

  • Irond WillIrond Will Dragonmaster Cambridge. MASuper Moderator, Moderator mod
    edited April 2008
    Savant wrote: »
    I don't see why you guys think double digits is so likely. Even the external polls have it a lot closer than that.

    Basically, I predict most of the "undecideds" going to Hillary. It's always hard to assess late-deciders, but it's generally a safe bet that they're low-information voters who will tend to vote along the lines of very very early polling (which was heavily Hillary).

    Wqdwp8l.png
  • kildykildy Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    So aside from the oh so republican ad (Osama? REALLY?), her campaign is chiding Obama about how bad it is when you apply the Kitchen Sink strategy.

    Projection, DO YOU UNDERSTAND IT.

    This is a sitcom. Some form of really amazing and subtle live action comedy. Right?

  • MKRMKR Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    I have a horse, cape and mask, and a scythe made from melted down flag pins on standby.

  • SpeakerSpeaker Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Thanatos wrote: »
    Speaker wrote: »
    Thanatos wrote: »
    I almost went Clinton 12-16, but settled for 8-12.

    Of course, I'm a pessimist.
    These kids just don't appreciate the inevitability of DOOM like we do.
    Pretty much.

    I spent the weekend in Portland registering Obama voters, though.

    Well yeah.

    No sense in giving up.

    Being walkers with the dawn and morning,
    Walkers with the sun and morning, we are not afraid of night,
    Nor days of gloom, nor darkness -
    Being walkers with the sun and morning.
  • ElJeffeElJeffe Super Moderator, Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited April 2008
    Some number crunching, because I like numbers:

    Averaging out the polls in the OP gives Hillary a 5.4 point victory. Of course, there are a lot of undecideds, and undecideds will break strongly for Hillary, because they're just the people who haven't bothered paying attention for the entire goddamned campaign and will choose Clinton in the polling booth because they don't recognize that funny-looking O-word, except maybe it sorta sounds like that Osama guy, you know?

    Anyway, if you assume the undecideds in each case will break for Hillary by a 30-point margin, and you re-average the results, you wind up with Hillary winning by 8. I'm still going to go conservative and predict a 10-point win, and I still think double digits for Hillary is basically a coin-flip.

    Maddie: "I named my feet. The left one is flip and the right one is flop. Oh, and also I named my flip-flops."

    I make tweet.
  • EvanderEvander Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
  • kildykildy Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Evander wrote: »
    Osama ad?

    Really?

    You haven't seen the travesty?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDap46WOCmA&eurl=http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/

    Also, Clinton's campaign has spoken and says it's a positive ad, and it's totally valid. Which is the same thing Penn said after the 3am ad.

  • <:__)~&lt;:__)~ Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    I would like to bring to everyone's attention that at my workplace the other night, I was surrounded by 3-4 young men, between the ages of 20 and 30, who insist that voting for Obama OR Clinton, will turn the US into a third-world country and open our borders to anyone who wants to show up.

    I feel lucky that my brain neither shut down nor insisted that I murder them in public view.

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • EvanderEvander Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    kildy wrote: »
    Evander wrote: »
    Osama ad?

    Really?

    You haven't seen the travesty?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDap46WOCmA&eurl=http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/

    Also, Clinton's campaign has spoken and says it's a positive ad, and it's totally valid. Which is the same thing Penn said after the 3am ad.


    Can't do Youtube at work. Mind telling me the gist of it?

    georgersig.jpg
  • WMain00WMain00 Registered User
    edited April 2008
    I'm gonna say 8 for Clinton.

    +/- 1.


    Yes.

    *strokes British beard*

  • kildykildy Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Evander wrote: »
    kildy wrote: »
    Evander wrote: »
    Osama ad?

    Really?

    You haven't seen the travesty?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDap46WOCmA&eurl=http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/

    Also, Clinton's campaign has spoken and says it's a positive ad, and it's totally valid. Which is the same thing Penn said after the 3am ad.


    Can't do Youtube at work. Mind telling me the gist of it?

    Relatively tame, never mentions Obama, the Osama bit is a picture of him and the phrase "who do you think has what it takes"

    Obama's response, amusingly, was to link people to a youtube video of Bill Clinton talking about voting for the person who wants you to think rather than the one who wants you to fear.

  • HedgethornHedgethorn Associate Professor of Historical Hobby Horses In the Lions' DenRegistered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Evander wrote: »
    kildy wrote: »
    Evander wrote: »
    Osama ad?

    Really?

    You haven't seen the travesty?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDap46WOCmA&eurl=http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/

    Also, Clinton's campaign has spoken and says it's a positive ad, and it's totally valid. Which is the same thing Penn said after the 3am ad.


    Can't do Youtube at work. Mind telling me the gist of it?

    Narrator: It's the toughest job in the world.
    A bunch of historic news clips: FDR, Pearl Harbor, JFK, Cuban missile crisis, gas lines, stagflation, Berlin Wall, Bin Laden.
    Then a bunch of current news clips: Inflation, unemployment, recession, etc.
    Narrator: Harry Truman said, 'If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.' Who do you think has what it takes?
    Voice-Over: Paid for by Hillary Clinton for President.

  • SalSal Damnedest Little Fellow Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Don't feel down, people. If the Clinton campaign is really run like this, then they won't be able to exploit a PA victory effectively.

  • ElJeffeElJeffe Super Moderator, Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited April 2008
    I actually don't find that Osama ad very bad. She's running through a laundry list of problems our nation has right now - gas prices, Iraq, mortgage crisis, terrorism. Each issue is marked by a half-second flash of some image. Now, if you're going to pick a single image to get across the idea of "terrorism", what do you use? Your choices are either the WTC burning or Osama bin Laden.

    It's not as stupid as the 3AM ads, and it's not as offensive as her comments that McCain is better than Obama. Maybe I'm just not as easily shocked anymore.

    Maddie: "I named my feet. The left one is flip and the right one is flop. Oh, and also I named my flip-flops."

    I make tweet.
  • ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    kildy wrote: »
    Evander wrote: »
    kildy wrote: »
    Evander wrote: »
    Osama ad?

    Really?
    You haven't seen the travesty?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDap46WOCmA&eurl=http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/

    Also, Clinton's campaign has spoken and says it's a positive ad, and it's totally valid. Which is the same thing Penn said after the 3am ad.
    Can't do Youtube at work. Mind telling me the gist of it?
    Relatively tame, never mentions Obama, the Osama bit is a picture of him and the phrase "who do you think has what it takes"

    Obama's response, amusingly, was to link people to a youtube video of Bill Clinton talking about voting for the person who wants you to think rather than the one who wants you to fear.
    I think Bill Clinton will probably go back to being awesome once his wife isn't running for president anymore.

  • kildykildy Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    I actually don't find that Osama ad very bad. She's running through a laundry list of problems our nation has right now - gas prices, Iraq, mortgage crisis, terrorism. Each issue is marked by a half-second flash of some image. Now, if you're going to pick a single image to get across the idea of "terrorism", what do you use? Your choices are either the WTC burning or Osama bin Laden.

    It's not as stupid as the 3AM ads, and it's not as offensive as her comments that McCain is better than Obama. Maybe I'm just not as easily shocked anymore.

    It's not horrible, it's just a tad pale to have a Dem candidate using terrorism as a campaign point, especially when her record on it's pretty weak, and in the last debate she brought up 9/11 multiple times.

  • EvanderEvander Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    I actually don't find that Osama ad very bad. She's running through a laundry list of problems our nation has right now - gas prices, Iraq, mortgage crisis, terrorism. Each issue is marked by a half-second flash of some image. Now, if you're going to pick a single image to get across the idea of "terrorism", what do you use? Your choices are either the WTC burning or Osama bin Laden.

    It's not as stupid as the 3AM ads, and it's not as offensive as her comments that McCain is better than Obama. Maybe I'm just not as easily shocked anymore.

    I tend to agree. I don't think she has much of a leg to stand on, there, because she's been a Washington insider through all of those issues, and never seemed to do much to fixthem, but I don't think it's some kind of attack on Obama.

    georgersig.jpg
  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    He's been lazy bout fucking up her campaign lately

  • ElkiElki hegemon globalSuper Moderator, Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited April 2008
    Will, you goddamn jerk, stop anonymizing the polls.

  • EvanderEvander Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Thanatos wrote: »
    kildy wrote: »
    Evander wrote: »
    kildy wrote: »
    Evander wrote: »
    Osama ad?

    Really?
    You haven't seen the travesty?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDap46WOCmA&eurl=http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/

    Also, Clinton's campaign has spoken and says it's a positive ad, and it's totally valid. Which is the same thing Penn said after the 3am ad.
    Can't do Youtube at work. Mind telling me the gist of it?
    Relatively tame, never mentions Obama, the Osama bit is a picture of him and the phrase "who do you think has what it takes"

    Obama's response, amusingly, was to link people to a youtube video of Bill Clinton talking about voting for the person who wants you to think rather than the one who wants you to fear.
    I think Bill Clinton will probably go back to being awesome once his wife isn't running for president anymore.

    I will never be able to respect him as much as I used to.

    georgersig.jpg
  • ElkiElki hegemon globalSuper Moderator, Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited April 2008
    12-16, my number is 16.

  • SithDrummerSithDrummer Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    Elki wrote: »
    Will, you goddamn jerk, stop anonymizing the polls.
    fosho

    It's an easy game to hate
  • Irond WillIrond Will Dragonmaster Cambridge. MASuper Moderator, Moderator mod
    edited April 2008
    Elki wrote: »
    Will, you goddamn jerk, stop anonymizing the polls.

    Yeah I fuck that up a lot. Public ought to be the default.

    Wqdwp8l.png
  • ScooterScooter Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    So I went with 8-12 because I have even less faith in PAers than I do in Ohio.


    You are a terrible, terrible state, PA.

  • Pants ManPants Man Registered User
    edited April 2008
    i think hillary will win by just enough to give her an excuse to continue campaigning without the democrats rioting

    also i don't know how in the hell the PPP poll comes up with obama winning PA, but that'd be hilarious if it happened

    "okay byron, my grandma has a right to be happy, so i give you my blessing. just... don't get her pregnant. i don't need another mom."
  • ElkiElki hegemon globalSuper Moderator, Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited April 2008
  • HozHoz Registered User regular
    edited April 2008
    God, you are such a whore, Elki.

    You can split this into a "Elki is a whore" thread.

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