If there is not a vig, as indicated by only two kills earlier, then. . . one baddie, 2 villagers, and possibly one guard. However, if there were a guard, then the game could last another hour (if the baddie hits the guarded person and we vote out the other villager). Which makes me think that there is not a guard. So that there are three villagers left and one baddie. If we don't hit that baddie with the vote, then it'll be over. So we have basically a 20% chance of winning.
It's also possible that there is a vig and the kills overlapped yesterday. If that's the case, then the vig has a 50% chance of hitting the mafia (assuming we don't vote out the mafia). Which makes the vig really important.
See, now I was going to vote for Kime, but that would make it a four way tie.
Leaning towards voting for Rainfall. I find Law's post-deadline reveal to be a little more credible than everyone else's (though obviously it could have been a clever ruse).
Edit: A four way tie is bad because it gives us a 75% chance of losing.
No matter who I vote for, there will be a two-way tie between me and that person (assuming the person I vote for [not Kime] votes for me to balance it out).
That gives the village a maximum 50% chance of victory (assuming the person I vote for is the bad guy). Which I suppose is better than a maximum 25%. My math is off because I suck at stats, but you get the point.
Accordingly, !vote Rainfall and hope for the best.
Kime, villager, found strangled to death with a wonderfully cute and fluffy scarf. Rainfall, villager, ripped apart by the random mob of death once again.
Oh and thanks RNG and Locus for making it very easy to update the dead list. Started at the top and went straight down it. Shame for the village Locus was 2nd from the bottom.
That wasn't dumb, that was smart. You really thought we had both a seer and a guardian? I was hoping that whoever the mafia was thought that a vig was a larger threat than a seer.
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cj iwakuraThe Rhythm RegentBears The Name FreedomRegistered Userregular
edited November 2008
I think when you came out as a vigilante, they went 'well, there's no guardian, get him!', so in a way, it sealed my fate. :P
That wasn't dumb, that was smart. You really thought we had both a seer and a guardian? I was hoping that whoever the mafia was thought that a vig was a larger threat than a seer.
That wasn't a bad idea either, trying to get the vig kill off cj. Unfortunate that we murdered you for it. . .
Yea, I think the village had around a 58% win rate at this set up. A 1/6 vote and a 1/4 vote plus a 1/4 seering modified by a 1/3 chance of negating the seering (by killing the seer.)
I killed cj cause I didn't think there would be any other specials. Given the information I had (six players, game has to end after two rounds, only one bad guy), it just didn't make sense for there to be more than one good special.
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It's also possible that there is a vig and the kills overlapped yesterday. If that's the case, then the vig has a 50% chance of hitting the mafia (assuming we don't vote out the mafia). Which makes the vig really important.
I'm thinking there's not a vig though.
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I want to spend another ten minutes thinking about it, then I'll make my vote.
I use the word "think" way too much.
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So what does happen with a tie?
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Leaning towards voting for Rainfall. I find Law's post-deadline reveal to be a little more credible than everyone else's (though obviously it could have been a clever ruse).
Edit: A four way tie is bad because it gives us a 75% chance of losing.
:P, do it
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That gives the village a maximum 50% chance of victory (assuming the person I vote for is the bad guy). Which I suppose is better than a maximum 25%. My math is off because I suck at stats, but you get the point.
Accordingly, !vote Rainfall and hope for the best.
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You are such crap.
Kime, villager, found strangled to death with a wonderfully cute and fluffy scarf.
Rainfall, villager, ripped apart by the random mob of death once again.
Infernal Spawn of Evil victory!
I knew it, Locus. :P
cj: Were you going to seer me?
Edit: I'll take that as a yes.
I was very much
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I saved you for last.
Although I thought it was lots of fun!
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If only there was a conversion.
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Yea, I think the village had around a 58% win rate at this set up. A 1/6 vote and a 1/4 vote plus a 1/4 seering modified by a 1/3 chance of negating the seering (by killing the seer.)
Without reveal stuff obviously.