Hmm... upon further review, Dunadan019 was hit by the SK (or is this just the mafia?) kill, shanked with an icicle. So never mind about checking that. Might still be nice to know who had the fewest posts and still survived the day, though.
It's entirely possible the mafia might have multiple/different kills, one unattached to their group kill.
@Kay: OS is right, your numbers suck because they assume they'll kill each other 100% of the time. This is Phalla, not an implementation of Life.
Kay, I think you're just over-analyzing it. If either of them had access to a kill, the other would have died day one. Grudges aside, past day one, I'm sure either of them would much rather win the game over continuing petty grudges.
They might both be mafia, but they might both be villagers. The problem with your logic, as others have pointed out, is that there's nothing intrinsically tying the numbers to the two of them. The same math works for you and me.
Vote how you want, but we're getting a bit low in numbers. Kuhlmeye still has a lot of explaining to do, and the day is young. Why are you trying so hard to focus our attention elsewhere? He already distracted us once.
In fact, if he turns up evil, you're next on my list.
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KayWhat we need...Is a little bit of PANIC.Registered Userregular
edited October 2009
1) It doesn't assume they're both evil. It assumes one or the other is.
2) It's not two random players. It's two people that are constantly at each other's throats, they're both alive, and that is the interesting thing.
3) You're ignoring the combination of the information provided. On their own, each piece isn't that useful. Altogether, that is when it becomes interesting.
Doesn't matter though, I see everyone's made their decision. Therefore it's all of you that are terrible, and I'll laugh at the end of the game.
If one of them has a kill, why isn't the other one dead? I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's a bit unlikely. Anyway, the point is, are you even interested in hearing from Kuhlmeye?
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AriviaI Like A ChallengeEarth-1Registered Userregular
edited October 2009
You're right, Houn, more pressure on kuhlmeye sounds good.
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KayWhat we need...Is a little bit of PANIC.Registered Userregular
edited October 2009
I already covered that. We know neither of 'em are the vigilante. One of them would DEFINITELY be dead then.
We know that the only people with access to kills that they could be are either the mafia, if they're the standard type, or the serial killer that likes shanking people with icicles. On either side, they'd want to avoid drawing attention to themselves, thus not throwing a kill at the other, or they're unable to throw a kill at each other.
Anyhow, kuhlmeye does have some explaining to do, but I wanted to bring this observation to light anyhow, and I have certainly done that.
Also, if I modified the numbers to take Darian's confirmed goodness into the equation, it just skews the percentages towards one or both of them being evil, making it less likely that they're both good. And this is only an issue because they are both alive - keep that bit in mind, please.
You also assume that a stupid shot in the dark with possibly our last vig attempt and the vote today is OKAY if we miss. It isn't. We need to hit a mafia today with one or both of them or we LOSE.
this is my biggest concern with your plan kay. i agree that the fact that both of them are still alive is interesting, as i know several players (myself included) who would take advantage of their public grudge and off one to cast suspicion on the other.
i just think you should have brought this up earlier... ie day 2. instead, you have forced us into a situation where we have to choose between:
a) a plan built on faux-math and interesting intuition which ties up both kills for the night
b) someone who has dodged the vote (both pretty stupid reasoned votes, but still, dodged none the less) twice.
c) voting off someone who epic revealed as a goddamn janitor. also, who has yet to contact the confirmed vig.
personally, i want to see the result of the kuhlmeye thing. this is mainly a placeholder at the moment. we'll see if his arguments sway me.
a final thought: if (by your own admission, a 40% possibility) neither OS or BL is evil, the best case scenario is that the cold kills only 1 person again. even in that scenario, it is likely 5v5 at that point.
if one of them is evil, it puts us at a presumed 6v4.
if in any case, the ice kills more than 1 person tonight, we are so very screwed.
i want to test out your theory, kay. but only as a last resort. as in, if darian clears kuhl and we have no other info to go on.
yeah arivia. it does look a little suspicious that you dodged the vote 2 days in a row. hmm... someone with more time than me should look in to who the swing votes were, who pushed each vote into a bandwagon, etc.
i would, but im heading out for much of the day. should be back long before vote close though.
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AriviaI Like A ChallengeEarth-1Registered Userregular
edited October 2009
honestly, I'm a researcher and they were very very stupid bandwagons
In other news, if the icicle shanking is a serial killer, I think we need each other. If you contact me, we can co-ordinate our kills and I will not out you to the thread. We need to work together if we're going to take down these ice fiends.
Also, for those of you who are specials and just waking up: I'm the vig; get in touch, please.
I'm still looking in Arivia's direction. I don't have time for anything in depth right now, but the bandwagon was pushed off of Arivia by herself and psolms and onto garroad_ran.
kuhlmeye, because it is blatantly obvious that we don't need his heatpacks anyway.
More like he was bullshitting about the heatpacks?
I was not bullshitting about the heat packs. I can give one person a night a heat pack, and keep them from freezing to death. I gave them to myself the past 2 nights due to lack of better targets.
kuhlmeye, because it is blatantly obvious that we don't need his heatpacks anyway.
More like he was bullshitting about the heatpacks?
I was not bullshitting about the heat packs. I can give one person a night a heat pack, and keep them from freezing to death. I gave them to myself the past 2 nights due to lack of better targets.
There were better targets. And conveniently this means that no one else can verify you since you're only giving heat packs to yourself.
kuhlmeye, because it is blatantly obvious that we don't need his heatpacks anyway.
More like he was bullshitting about the heatpacks?
I was not bullshitting about the heat packs. I can give one person a night a heat pack, and keep them from freezing to death. I gave them to myself the past 2 nights due to lack of better targets.
There were better targets. And conveniently this means that no one else can verify you since you're only giving heat packs to yourself.
Exactly. Kuhlmeye until someone presents a better target.
And I think Kay is reading wayyy to much into the sunkist B:L thing.
kuhlmeye, because it is blatantly obvious that we don't need his heatpacks anyway.
More like he was bullshitting about the heatpacks?
I was not bullshitting about the heat packs. I can give one person a night a heat pack, and keep them from freezing to death. I gave them to myself the past 2 nights due to lack of better targets.
There were better targets. And conveniently this means that no one else can verify you since you're only giving heat packs to yourself.
Exactly. Kuhlmeye until someone presents a better target.
And I think Kay is reading wayyy to much into the sunkist B:L thing.
Thats cool. The death list will show Boris Grishenko, Janitor, and then you will have no way to prevent hypothermia.
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AriviaI Like A ChallengeEarth-1Registered Userregular
kuhlmeye, because it is blatantly obvious that we don't need his heatpacks anyway.
More like he was bullshitting about the heatpacks?
I was not bullshitting about the heat packs. I can give one person a night a heat pack, and keep them from freezing to death. I gave them to myself the past 2 nights due to lack of better targets.
There were better targets. And conveniently this means that no one else can verify you since you're only giving heat packs to yourself.
Exactly. Kuhlmeye until someone presents a better target.
And I think Kay is reading wayyy to much into the sunkist B:L thing.
Thats cool. The death list will show Boris Grishenko, Janitor, and then you will have no way to prevent hypothermia.
And also, if there are indeed 5 mafia members in this game, we 100% can not afford to hit a villager with the vote tonight. There are only 14 people left, so if we manage to lose 4 villager aligned people tonight, village loses. And right now the vote is on a villager, so...
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AriviaI Like A ChallengeEarth-1Registered Userregular
Actually, after a little googling, we've already lost a scientist from Resident Evil and LL Cool J. So Spec may have just seeded related stereotypes/archetypes/tropes/GET ME OUT OF HERE, I'M A CELEBRITIES.
kuhlmeye, because it is blatantly obvious that we don't need his heatpacks anyway.
More like he was bullshitting about the heatpacks?
I was not bullshitting about the heat packs. I can give one person a night a heat pack, and keep them from freezing to death. I gave them to myself the past 2 nights due to lack of better targets.
There were better targets. And conveniently this means that no one else can verify you since you're only giving heat packs to yourself.
Exactly. Kuhlmeye until someone presents a better target.
And I think Kay is reading wayyy to much into the sunkist B:L thing.
Thats cool. The death list will show Boris Grishenko, Janitor, and then you will have no way to prevent hypothermia.
I share body heat on a nightly basis. It's all the heat I need. :P
so... your big reveal is that you were using this power to save... yourself.
even after numerous theories were put forward that the hypothermia kills were based on post count. you didnt think to try and save a low poster. like ebfan.
in fact, saving ebfan would have been the perfect way to confirm yourself. you could have even pm'ed him to make sure he stayed at the bottom of post counts.
psolms makes a really good point here, kuhlmeye. Either you wasted a perfectly good opportunity to demonstrate your power, or (more likely in my opinion) you were just talking out of your ass and you can't protect anyone but yourself from the cold, 'cause you're an evil frost creature.
Posts
It's entirely possible the mafia might have multiple/different kills, one unattached to their group kill.
@Kay: OS is right, your numbers suck because they assume they'll kill each other 100% of the time. This is Phalla, not an implementation of Life.
They might both be mafia, but they might both be villagers. The problem with your logic, as others have pointed out, is that there's nothing intrinsically tying the numbers to the two of them. The same math works for you and me.
Vote how you want, but we're getting a bit low in numbers. Kuhlmeye still has a lot of explaining to do, and the day is young. Why are you trying so hard to focus our attention elsewhere? He already distracted us once.
In fact, if he turns up evil, you're next on my list.
2) It's not two random players. It's two people that are constantly at each other's throats, they're both alive, and that is the interesting thing.
3) You're ignoring the combination of the information provided. On their own, each piece isn't that useful. Altogether, that is when it becomes interesting.
Doesn't matter though, I see everyone's made their decision. Therefore it's all of you that are terrible, and I'll laugh at the end of the game.
3DS FCode: 1993-7512-8991
We know that the only people with access to kills that they could be are either the mafia, if they're the standard type, or the serial killer that likes shanking people with icicles. On either side, they'd want to avoid drawing attention to themselves, thus not throwing a kill at the other, or they're unable to throw a kill at each other.
Anyhow, kuhlmeye does have some explaining to do, but I wanted to bring this observation to light anyhow, and I have certainly done that.
Also, if I modified the numbers to take Darian's confirmed goodness into the equation, it just skews the percentages towards one or both of them being evil, making it less likely that they're both good. And this is only an issue because they are both alive - keep that bit in mind, please.
3DS FCode: 1993-7512-8991
this is my biggest concern with your plan kay. i agree that the fact that both of them are still alive is interesting, as i know several players (myself included) who would take advantage of their public grudge and off one to cast suspicion on the other.
i just think you should have brought this up earlier... ie day 2. instead, you have forced us into a situation where we have to choose between:
a) a plan built on faux-math and interesting intuition which ties up both kills for the night
b) someone who has dodged the vote (both pretty stupid reasoned votes, but still, dodged none the less) twice.
c) voting off someone who epic revealed as a goddamn janitor. also, who has yet to contact the confirmed vig.
personally, i want to see the result of the kuhlmeye thing. this is mainly a placeholder at the moment. we'll see if his arguments sway me.
a final thought: if (by your own admission, a 40% possibility) neither OS or BL is evil, the best case scenario is that the cold kills only 1 person again. even in that scenario, it is likely 5v5 at that point.
if one of them is evil, it puts us at a presumed 6v4.
if in any case, the ice kills more than 1 person tonight, we are so very screwed.
i want to test out your theory, kay. but only as a last resort. as in, if darian clears kuhl and we have no other info to go on.
i would, but im heading out for much of the day. should be back long before vote close though.
not more suspicious then the janitor, mind you, but still.
Also, for those of you who are specials and just waking up: I'm the vig; get in touch, please.
I am so surprized.....
also so very awesome.
oooOOOOOOOooooooooOOOOOooooo
I really did want that extra day :-/
OOOOooOOOooOOo
// Switch: SW-5306-0651-6424 //
"What would MacReady do?"
He would drink some !Orange Soda mixed with whiskey.
PSN - sumowot
PSN - sumowot
More like he was bullshitting about the heatpacks?
// Switch: SW-5306-0651-6424 //
And then he would shoot you both, or blow up the whole facility!
I mean, don't get me wrong, guys. I love you both, but the fact that you're both still alive is a bit... y'know?
3DS FCode: 1993-7512-8991
I was not bullshitting about the heat packs. I can give one person a night a heat pack, and keep them from freezing to death. I gave them to myself the past 2 nights due to lack of better targets.
There were better targets. And conveniently this means that no one else can verify you since you're only giving heat packs to yourself.
Exactly. Kuhlmeye until someone presents a better target.
And I think Kay is reading wayyy to much into the sunkist B:L thing.
Thats cool. The death list will show Boris Grishenko, Janitor, and then you will have no way to prevent hypothermia.
Boris...Grishenko? from Goldeneye?
SPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEC
Uhh, he was quite the invincible bad guy, !Kuhlm.
Actually, after a little googling, we've already lost a scientist from Resident Evil and LL Cool J. So Spec may have just seeded related stereotypes/archetypes/tropes/GET ME OUT OF HERE, I'M A CELEBRITIES.
I share body heat on a nightly basis. It's all the heat I need. :P
Besides, they were stolen from the supplies for everyone.
// Switch: SW-5306-0651-6424 //
Exactly. Without someone to vouch for them it's highly likely he's telling a bad lie.
// Switch: SW-5306-0651-6424 //
I concur.
This is totally not a fluff post to increase my count.
even after numerous theories were put forward that the hypothermia kills were based on post count. you didnt think to try and save a low poster. like ebfan.
in fact, saving ebfan would have been the perfect way to confirm yourself. you could have even pm'ed him to make sure he stayed at the bottom of post counts.
but no. you used it on yourself.
thanks for the help.
INSECTASAURUS!!!
Neither is this. It's just me complaining about having to work again tonight.
// Switch: SW-5306-0651-6424 //
Fluffing is hard work, eh?