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[Mini-Phalla] Blackout--Game Over! Mafia Victory

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Posts

  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Savant wrote: »
    I'll go for !visiblehowl unless something else comes up.

    Anyways, we should probably think of alternative explanations other than inactivity for the doubling of kills on Infidel pending the alignment of VH. If VH was responsible for the lack of kill, then that suggests the mafia is unnetworked to me. If so, that makes my asking for a seer a bit more suspicious.

    Hmmm.

    This is a bit of a quandary.
    It seems to me that the mafia has to be unnetworked. Why else would they use two kills on Infidel?

    The only other plausible scenario is that Infy was targeted night one, but it was blocked, so they were trying to stack kills to get him down. But that's really not the best strategy, so I kind of doubt it...

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  • simonwolfsimonwolf DEHUMANIZE YOURSELF AND FACE TO BLOODSHEDRegistered User regular
    edited October 2009
    All things considered, especially the whole "hey guys we're in the dark, who knows what's going on anymore", it seems pretty likely that the mafia started this game un-networked, and one of their kills on night one got blocked somehow. A double kill on Infidel only really confirms this theory, as well as making it clear that Infidel is a threat to everyone.

    If that's the case, though, voting records are going to be near-useless.

    Hopefully our likely-confirmed vig can get in contact with a seer and Burnage in order to sort out who our next target should be.

    Just in case I sleep in past vote close tomorrow, though, I'm going to put a placeholder onto visiblehowl.

    Uj3Ujoh.jpg
  • Dunadan019Dunadan019 Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Suspicious, Duny!

    (second place)

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  • Dunadan019Dunadan019 Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    kime wrote: »
    Suspicious, Duny!

    (second place)

    being evil suits you.

  • JobastionJobastion Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Burnage wrote: »
    I don't have more knowledge than any of you (yet), but VH seems to be the best option. Savant and/or Jobastion might also make very good targets for the seer or vig tonight, but I'll leave that to their discretion.

    Did I miss something in thread regarding Savant and him doing something suspicious, or did he do something behind closed doors that makes him a probable suspicious person?

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  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Dunadan019 wrote: »
    kime wrote: »
    Suspicious, Duny!

    (second place)

    being evil suits you.

    It's amusing how well you think you can read me :P.

    Not that I'm disagreeing, of course.

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  • psolmspsolms Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Jobastion wrote: »
    Burnage wrote: »
    I don't have more knowledge than any of you (yet), but VH seems to be the best option. Savant and/or Jobastion might also make very good targets for the seer or vig tonight, but I'll leave that to their discretion.

    Did I miss something in thread regarding Savant and him doing something suspicious, or did he do something behind closed doors that makes him a probable suspicious person?

    i was curious about that as well. he just seemed to come out of nowhere and defend himself.

  • iamtheaznmaniamtheaznman Registered User
    edited October 2009
    Hmm... unless VH is meta-gaming it hard, I really don't believe that he's mafia. His excuse went something like, "I thought it was a normal Phalla". If he were mafia, he would known that was mafia (ahava has confirmed this), and I imagine he would've sent his orders in, instead of being publicly chastised by ahava.

    May I also suggest an alternative? The mafia and the guard both targetted the same person?

    Yeah I really think this Howl vote has no merit. I doubt he would ever do something like that. My assumption is with eecc, mafia and guard probably targeted the same person.

  • visiblehowlvisiblehowl Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    I am not a mafia and HERE'S WHY! :D

    I was pretty clearly active on Day 1, so if I didn't send in an action, it probably wasn't because I wasn't around to do so. Which leaves a) the excuse I gave (reading comprehension failure) or b) I'm a mafia and was...purposefully not sending in my action? That would be a pretty stupid move for a number of reasons. First of all it draws attention to me, which is always bad. Secondly, I'd be giving up my Day 1 kill, which is pretty dumb. Thirdly, it didn't even benefit me at all; it didn't prove anything to the village about my role. The only thing it proved was that I wasn't a vig or a seer.

    Basically, there's no reason for me to not send in an action if I was mafia. And, contrary to what seems to be popular belief, I'm not a moron.

    Thusly, I'll be voting for Dunadan, for two reasons.

    1) Self-preservation
    2) The whole "I knew something you guys didn't because you're idiots, but I'm not going to tell you how I know" always rubs me the wrong way, and is also pretty suspicious.

    DogSig.gif
  • JobastionJobastion Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    I am not a mafia and HERE'S WHY! :D

    I was pretty clearly active on Day 1, so if I didn't send in an action, it probably wasn't because I wasn't around to do so. Which leaves a) the excuse I gave (reading comprehension failure) or b) I'm a mafia and was...purposefully not sending in my action? That would be a pretty stupid move for a number of reasons. First of all it draws attention to me, which is always bad. Secondly, I'd be giving up my Day 1 kill, which is pretty dumb. Thirdly, it didn't even benefit me at all; it didn't prove anything to the village about my role. The only thing it proved was that I wasn't a vig or a seer.

    Basically, there's no reason for me to not send in an action if I was mafia. And, contrary to what seems to be popular belief, I'm not a moron.

    Thusly, I'll be voting for Dunadan, for two reasons.

    1) Self-preservation
    2) The whole "I knew something you guys didn't because you're idiots, but I'm not going to tell you how I know" always rubs me the wrong way, and is also pretty suspicious.

    Ahhh... I see you leave out the third option, of you being mafia, but being terrible and having hit a guard. Occam's razor tells me that's not likely though...
    A fourth option though, presents itself, and is slightly more likely. The kind Ahava, in her infinate wisdom, may have found it humourous to imbed a serial killer in the ranks that didn't know they were a serial killer. And that could be you.
    Spoiler:

    I also find duna to be always rubbing me the wrong way.
    Spoiler:

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  • visiblehowlvisiblehowl Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Jobastion wrote: »
    I am not a mafia and HERE'S WHY! :D

    I was pretty clearly active on Day 1, so if I didn't send in an action, it probably wasn't because I wasn't around to do so. Which leaves a) the excuse I gave (reading comprehension failure) or b) I'm a mafia and was...purposefully not sending in my action? That would be a pretty stupid move for a number of reasons. First of all it draws attention to me, which is always bad. Secondly, I'd be giving up my Day 1 kill, which is pretty dumb. Thirdly, it didn't even benefit me at all; it didn't prove anything to the village about my role. The only thing it proved was that I wasn't a vig or a seer.

    Basically, there's no reason for me to not send in an action if I was mafia. And, contrary to what seems to be popular belief, I'm not a moron.

    Thusly, I'll be voting for Dunadan, for two reasons.

    1) Self-preservation
    2) The whole "I knew something you guys didn't because you're idiots, but I'm not going to tell you how I know" always rubs me the wrong way, and is also pretty suspicious.

    Ahhh... I see you leave out the third option, of you being mafia, but being terrible and having hit a guard. Occam's razor tells me that's not likely though...
    You mean "impossible" right? Because Ahava said I didn't send in an action on Day 1, so I couldn't have hit anything, including a guard.
    A fourth option though, presents itself, and is slightly more likely. The kind Ahava, in her infinate wisdom, may have found it humourous to imbed a serial killer in the ranks that didn't know they were a serial killer. And that could be you.
    Spoiler:

    I also find duna to be always rubbing me the wrong way.
    Spoiler:
    Well, I didn't target anybody who died last night, so I at least know for myself that I'm not a serial killer! :P

    DogSig.gif
  • iamtheaznmaniamtheaznman Registered User
    edited October 2009
    So we have two scenarios:
    We have 25 people. Lets say 15% of them are mafia which is about 3.75, if you round down you would get 3 Mafia each with their own individual kill, but they are unnetworked hence the overlap.

    OR

    We have 4 networked Mafia with 2 kills, and a SK and the SK and Mafia overlapped on a kill.

    The second scenario seems more likely to me, just because I think 3 Mafia is kind of small, especially if they are unnetworked and if there were anymore mafia it wouldn't make sense.

  • fadingathedgesfadingathedges Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    I would bet on un-networked... so maybe 4?

  • iamtheaznmaniamtheaznman Registered User
    edited October 2009
    I would bet on un-networked... so maybe 4?

    It makes little sense for there to be anymore than 3 unnetworked mafia. Would one of the mafia just be a gimp one with no kill? RNG? 2 masoned and 2 not?

  • SavantSavant Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    psolms wrote: »
    Jobastion wrote: »
    Burnage wrote: »
    I don't have more knowledge than any of you (yet), but VH seems to be the best option. Savant and/or Jobastion might also make very good targets for the seer or vig tonight, but I'll leave that to their discretion.

    Did I miss something in thread regarding Savant and him doing something suspicious, or did he do something behind closed doors that makes him a probable suspicious person?

    i was curious about that as well. he just seemed to come out of nowhere and defend himself.

    Well, I told burnage who I targeted the first two nights and maybe he thought I was suspicious based on that. I'm not really sure. I don't like it when he talks about throwing a vig my way though.

    I could see there being 4 unnetworked mafia potentially, but that doesn't line up very well with three kills and a double up on infidel. Perhaps there are 3 unnetworked mafia and one of their first night kills got guarded or blocked somehow?

  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Savant wrote: »
    psolms wrote: »
    Jobastion wrote: »
    Burnage wrote: »
    I don't have more knowledge than any of you (yet), but VH seems to be the best option. Savant and/or Jobastion might also make very good targets for the seer or vig tonight, but I'll leave that to their discretion.

    Did I miss something in thread regarding Savant and him doing something suspicious, or did he do something behind closed doors that makes him a probable suspicious person?

    i was curious about that as well. he just seemed to come out of nowhere and defend himself.

    Well, I told burnage who I targeted the first two nights and maybe he thought I was suspicious based on that. I'm not really sure. I don't like it when he talks about throwing a vig my way though.

    I could see there being 4 unnetworked mafia potentially, but that doesn't line up very well with three kills and a double up on infidel. Perhaps there are 3 unnetworked mafia and one of their first night kills got guarded or blocked somehow?

    Honestly, it was because you and Job posted relatively quickly after vote close. In my experience that's a mafia tendency.

    When I posted that message this morning, I had no more information than the rest of you. I am glad that there's not been mindless bandwagoning. Give me a bit to read through my PMs, I'll see if anything good has come up.

  • Dunadan019Dunadan019 Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    kime wrote: »
    Dunadan019 wrote: »
    kime wrote: »
    Suspicious, Duny!

    (second place)

    being evil suits you.

    It's amusing how well you can read me :P.

    Not that I'm disagreeing, of course.

    I agree

  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    I would bet on un-networked... so maybe 4?

    It makes little sense for there to be anymore than 3 unnetworked mafia. Would one of the mafia just be a gimp one with no kill? RNG? 2 masoned and 2 not?

    Mafia can have abilities other than kills.

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  • ecco the dolphinecco the dolphin Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    What about unnetworked to begin with, but if they target one of their own, they get a "seer" result which says, "Hey! Another mafia member!"

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  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    What about unnetworked to begin with, but if they target one of their own, they get a "seer" result which says, "Hey! Another mafia member!"

    That would definitely be Ahava's style.

  • JobastionJobastion Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Burnage wrote: »
    Savant wrote: »
    psolms wrote: »
    Jobastion wrote: »
    Burnage wrote: »
    I don't have more knowledge than any of you (yet), but VH seems to be the best option. Savant and/or Jobastion might also make very good targets for the seer or vig tonight, but I'll leave that to their discretion.

    Did I miss something in thread regarding Savant and him doing something suspicious, or did he do something behind closed doors that makes him a probable suspicious person?

    i was curious about that as well. he just seemed to come out of nowhere and defend himself.

    Well, I told burnage who I targeted the first two nights and maybe he thought I was suspicious based on that. I'm not really sure. I don't like it when he talks about throwing a vig my way though.

    I could see there being 4 unnetworked mafia potentially, but that doesn't line up very well with three kills and a double up on infidel. Perhaps there are 3 unnetworked mafia and one of their first night kills got guarded or blocked somehow?

    Honestly, it was because you and Job posted relatively quickly after vote close. In my experience that's a mafia tendency.

    When I posted that message this morning, I had no more information than the rest of you. I am glad that there's not been mindless bandwagoning. Give me a bit to read through my PMs, I'll see if anything good has come up.

    Soooo.... gut feeling then. Not necessarily the most, uh, scientific, method of elimination. At all. But sometimes it works out.
    In this case, I was writing a reply to shel, hit preview, saw our picture narration had come up, and just went ahead and added my thoughts to the same.
    That, and I was on the chop block in a close race. If there'd been any vote maniupulation abilities, it could easily have gone the other way. Gotta hang around for that. No fun at all if I just went to sleep and didn't post something.

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  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Jobastion wrote: »
    Soooo.... gut feeling then. Not necessarily the most, uh, scientific, method of elimination. At all. But sometimes it works out.

    Sometimes. Speaking of which, could somebody who is more familiar with his playstyle tell me whether Savant always gets this jumpy when somebody claims he's suspicious?

  • garroad_rangarroad_ran Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Spoiler:


    For what it's worth, I think VH has a pretty good defense here. He's got three posts that I can see on Day 1, so he seems to be on the level.

    I don't know about the narration though... It's tempting to think that one of the mafia kills hit a guard on night one, but isn't three mafia kills a bit much in a game of this size?

  • visiblehowlvisiblehowl Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    So, there seem to be a lot of people saying "hey, that VH guy makes sense" but not much movement in the way of getting the vote on someone else. Any chance we could put someone else forward? I think Dunadan isn't a terrible idea, since he seems to think it's worthless to help the village work stuff out.

    DogSig.gif
  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Savant, then. But please, village; Do not take my word as gospel.

  • JobastionJobastion Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Burnage wrote: »
    Jobastion wrote: »
    Soooo.... gut feeling then. Not necessarily the most, uh, scientific, method of elimination. At all. But sometimes it works out.

    Sometimes. Speaking of which, could somebody who is more familiar with his playstyle tell me whether Savant always gets this jumpy when somebody claims he's suspicious?

    I have some free time at work. Went ahead and... ugg... went thru his last few games.
    Spoiler:
    Found some posts that seem to indicate that when accused, he does indeed get defensive.
    Villager in this one.
    http://forums.penny-arcade.com/showthread.php?p=11513909#post11513909
    Mafia here.
    http://forums.penny-arcade.com/showthread.php?p=5923664#post5923664
    And of the games he's played in the last 250 posts he's made, that's all the times I was able to find a strong accusation made against him.

    In non-related news, I'm throwing my hat in the !Duna ring. I do infact agree with the logic from Vishowl. Also, just from the numbers, Duna's first post today was relatively close to narration too, so if Burnage's gut feeling is right, then I feel that extending his net by five minutes to be A'ok. Also, his first post was to vote for me. And since I'm not mafia, then what better way to for him to try to be sneaky then to try start up a bandwagon on yesterday's second place right off the bat out of the gate. Seems evil to me.
    Spoiler:

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  • garroad_rangarroad_ran Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    I'm gonna vote Dunadan019. I'm hoping it will incite him to educate me on how to spot the obvious. There is much I need to learn from him.

  • SavantSavant Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Burnage wrote: »
    Savant, then. But please, village; Do not take my word as gospel.

    You disappoint me.

    I can go for the dunadan019 bandwagon. I think he voted for me earlier, which was not nice of him.

  • ecco the dolphinecco the dolphin Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Hmmm... dunadan019.

    Mental note. As of this post, the following people have not yet voted:

    Bremen
    fadingattheedges
    Fatal3RROR
    iamtheaznman
    kuhlmeye
    Osvik
    psolms
    Zandracon

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  • Dunadan019Dunadan019 Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Savant, Burnage has much more information than you 'tards.

  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Dunadan019 wrote: »
    Savant, Burnage has much more information than you 'tards.

    Stop that. I really don't.

    Although what little information I do have tells me you should all aim at eeccccoo tonight.

  • Dunadan019Dunadan019 Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Burnage wrote: »
    Dunadan019 wrote: »
    Savant, Burnage has much more information than you 'tards.

    Stop that. I really don't.

    Although what little information I do have tells me you should all aim at eeccccoo tonight.

    I know I sent you information, was I the only one?

  • garroad_rangarroad_ran Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Short of the mafia telling Burnage outright who they are, I don't see how he could have more information than anyone else at this point...

  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Dunadan019 wrote: »
    Burnage wrote: »
    Dunadan019 wrote: »
    Savant, Burnage has much more information than you 'tards.

    Stop that. I really don't.

    Although what little information I do have tells me you should all aim at eeccccoo tonight.

    I know I sent you information, was I the only one?

    Oh, my apologies. I thought you meant useful information. I know the seer, I know the vig, and apart from that I have a list of targets for each night that don't really tell me anything.

    Edit: what Garroad_ran said, basically. I have no way of verifying whether someone was actually targeted, so the mafia are just going to feed me fake targets.

  • JobastionJobastion Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Dunadan019 wrote: »
    Burnage wrote: »
    Dunadan019 wrote: »
    Savant, Burnage has much more information than you 'tards.

    Stop that. I really don't.

    Although what little information I do have tells me you should all aim at eeccccoo tonight.

    I know I sent you information, was I the only one?

    Nope. But on the whole, what information we have to send isn't very useful. Mafia can just grab two names at random from the OP and say those were their targets for the night.
    Villager's can be truthful.
    But since the only evidence we have of what actually happens are some green words on a black backround, there's not much that Burnage would be able to decipher from it.
    Heck, we don't even know for certain what roles are present in the village, except for vig and seer.
    Spoiler:
    Fake edit: Beat by gr and burn.

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  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    Mental note. As of this post, the following people have not yet voted:
    Spoiler:

    These are also - give or take - the players that haven't sent me any info, so I'm assuming inactivity on their parts rather than mafia avoidance. Hrm.

  • kuhlmeyekuhlmeye Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
    fadingattheedges, this is mostly a personal suspicion.

    PSN: the-K-flash
  • iamtheaznmaniamtheaznman Registered User
    edited October 2009
    I'll go with !Dunadan, there seems to be more of a case against him.

  • ZandraconZandracon Registered User regular
    edited October 2009
This discussion has been closed.