Video game sales thread December: It's over, use the new thread

Opty · January 2010

Well there's 0% chance of that happening so your cock is safe.

lowlylowlycook · January 2010

Muramasa18 wrote: »

If NSMBWii outsells both versions of MW2 combined, I will eat my cock. Or, if not my own, certainly a cock.

Over what time frame? And world wide or just NA?

pslong9 · January 2010

Muramasa18 wrote: »

If NSMBWii outsells both versions of MW2 combined, I will eat my cock. Or, if not my own, certainly a cock.

Couscous · January 2010

I love it when gaming companies complain about casual gamers not buying as much as core gamers while also excitedly talking about releasing more games on the iPhone and Facebook.

EggyToast · January 2010

Casual games are the ones spending money in Farmville (and "other" gamers simply boot up a copy of Harvest Moon that they already own). I'd imagine a bigger problem for game companies is that "non-casual" gamers still buy & play casual games.

Muramasa18 · January 2010

I meant for December NPD.

cloudeagle · January 2010

EggyToast wrote: »

Casual games are the ones spending money in Farmville (and "other" gamers simply boot up a copy of Harvest Moon that they already own). I'd imagine a bigger problem for game companies is that "non-casual" gamers still buy & play casual games.

"Non-casual" gamers still spend money in Farmville, they just loudly deny it.

Xenogears of Bore · January 2010

Actually it is entirely possible that it did just that in December.

Nov+Dec isn't going to be above both or probably either because of the ridiculous November sales.

Brainiac 8 · January 2010

Woo, just when I was afraid that Pachter was starting to make sense, he eases my worries.

"We are not convinced... that the addition of the Wii to Netflix’s stable of Internet-ready devices will have as significant an impact as did the Xbox 360, nor as significant as we expect for the PS3. In our view, only a small percentage (likely fewer than 20%) of Wii owners have connected their consoles to the Internet, which is required to activate the Netflix service. In contrast, we believe that more than 75% of Xbox 360s are connected to the Internet, and more than 80% of PS3s are connected. While we expect some traction from today’s announcement, we do not perceive that the addition of the Wii will jump start Netflix activations. Instead, we think that the Wii installed base will embrace the Netflix service only gradually, and think that this alliance will allow Netflix to continue the momentum started last year with its Xbox 360 partnership. We believe that the Xbox 360 installed base is approaching saturation for the Netflix service, and think that the addition of the PS3, the Wii, and other consumer electronics devices will allow Netflix to maintain its prior pace of subscriber additions as new customer additions from the Xbox 360 installed base begin to slow." - Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter

I'm curious to how many people are inside of Pachter if he refers to himself as we.

Xenogears of Bore · January 2010

That actually sounds pretty rational, if you ask me.

Capt Howdy · January 2010

Aside from his connected rates, that doesn't sound very crazy at all.

Shrug.

Maybe I'm just reading it wrong.

cooljammer00 · January 2010

How long till someone complains that they can now access dirty movies on the Wii?

Also, does Netflix need Friends Codes?

RainbowDespair · January 2010

Given how poor Nintendo's online network is (friend codes, takes forever to log in when you want to buy something, no voice chat in most games), having a drastically lower connection rate than the other two consoles seems for granted. Between that, no HD, and being the last one to get it, I can't see Netflix doing much to help the Wii.

Xenogears of Bore · January 2010

Wii Internet only takes a long time to load if you don't portfoward at all or have a shitty connection.

Opera and Wii Shop appear pretty much instantly for me, besides the initial 5 or so second load for the shops main screen.

Brainiac 8 · January 2010

Capt Howdy wrote: »

Aside from his connected rates, that doesn't sound very crazy at all.

Shrug.

Maybe I'm just reading it wrong.

Yea, I was more refering to his thoughts on connection rates....the bit about whether Netflix will help the Wii or not is an ok thought.

I also doubt it will do as well as on the other systems.

plufim · January 2010

Interesting quote from a Wiiware dev on Eurogamer regarding bad sales of mature games on wii, specifically regarding capcom's comments of late:

Capcom's "bitching" (and subsequent back-track) about poor sales of Resident Evil: Darkside Chronicles was ill-aimed, WiiWare developer Bloober Team has told Eurogamer.

"With such a strong install base it's hard to believe that there's not enough people to appreciate mature, core content," said executive producer Marcin Kawa. "It's all about games and quality. I'm not surprised that another shooter on rails doesn't sell well. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure out that people expect something more than that..

"I bet No More Heroes 2 will do pretty good, as well as the new Metroid and Capcom's Monster Hunter. I hope that Last Flight will be successful and that's because we're making a game that was thought out as a Wii game.

"Instead of bitching," he added, "we'd rather create something that has value and doesn't feel like a third-rate port put together to make a quick buck."

Bloober's making Last Flight, a visually simple but striking action-horror game inspired by Golden Axe, although we've yet to see the similarities. Importantly, this is a WiiWare game aimed at a mature audience that Marcin Kawa is adamant exists on Wii, despite the public lethargy for critically acclaimed games like MadWorld and No More Heroes.

"Was it the right decision to develop a game on Wii? Should we make it less violent? Are we gonna sell enough copies to pay our bills? You know, typical questions, nothing unusual here," Kawa said. "And while we love and respect Capcom and Pachter, we wouldn't go that far and say that mature stuff doesn't sell or that it's the platform holder's fault.

"Our logic is far simpler: if the game doesn't sell, we did something wrong."

The first episode of Last Flight, of which there are four, will be released on WiiWare "really soon".

While I agree with their point to some degree, they're really in no position to say anything.

Bloober Team now have four games that they've never finished, with double bloob, bloober kart and Raid Over The River being simple DS games that any competant team could have completed in a year. And then this game, which they were promising it would be out last year as recently as November. Just like their parent company, Nibris (the Sadness guys), they clearly have no competant direction.

They're as bad as Team Bondi.

Sigtyr · January 2010

Maybe it didn't sell because there was no fucking marketing behind it. Maybe Capcom should actually put some effort into their games, instead of releasing shit like A neutered Dead Rising and Spin off Rail shooters like Darkside Chronicles.

Jesus Fucking Christ this shit is getting old.

Lunker · January 2010

Xenogears of Bore wrote: »

Wii Internet only takes a long time to load if you don't portfoward at all or have a shitty connection.

Opera and Wii Shop appear pretty much instantly for me, besides the initial 5 or so second load for the shops main screen.

And the vast majority of the Wii userbase is familiar with port forwarding, then?

I've tinkered with my router for months and have never been able to get it going 100 percent effectively, though it's likely a fault of the router itself more than the Wii. Still, wireless tech is magic to a lot of people, or are you not familar with Best Buy's $100 setup charges?

Xenogears of Bore · January 2010

I had a part time job two years ago where part of my deal was selling shit just like that!

cloudeagle · January 2010

So Modern Warfare has held the world hostage, and has demanded (dramatic pause) one BEEL-yon dollars.

Publisher Activision Blizzard said Wednesday that Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 has earned more than $1 billion in worldwide retail sales.

Right out of the gate, Modern Warfare 2 was a record-breaker, raking in an estimated $550 million in the first five days of its release.

Of course, it costs a lot to make a lot. The Los Angeles times reported that Activision Blizzard spent upwards of $200 million on advertising. That’s on top of the game’s $40-50 million budget.

http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2010/01/modern-warfare-2-sale/

Also, Wired's got a note on game budgets.

A study conducted by entertainment analysts M2 Research has found that the cost of a multi-platform, next-gen game averages between $18 and $24 million, reports Develop.

The average single-platform game came with a price tag of around $10 million.

That’s still significantly lower than the average cost of a movie, around $65 million. And movie studios usually spend another $35 million on advertising.

Of course, games can be just as pricey. According to the Los Angeles Times, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (pictured above) cost $40 to $50 million to develop and another $200 million to promote.

Game budgets may have ballooned in the past five or six years as the demands of developing for next generation consoles forced game makers to spend more. But game designers have managed to avoid one of the major costs that Hollywood finds itself saddled with: the cost of talent. Whereas many celebrities, directors and even writers ask for millions to just hop on board a film project, we’ve yet to see this kind of spending around games.

Of course, there’s a downside to being overly frugal and cost-conscious when it comes to talent: Work game designers too hard and pay them too little and they might just publicly out you as slave-driving cheapskates.

http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2010/01/game-budgets/#more-19964

That's the average? Good lord.

Sheep · January 2010

cooljammer00 wrote: »

How long till someone complains that they can now access dirty movies on the Wii?

Also, does Netflix need Friends Codes?

Now?

I think it took me about an hour to find a streaming pron site when I got my Wii together.

Couscous · January 2010

The average single-platform game came with a price tag of around $10 million.

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/4237/thirdparty_publishers_react_to_.php?page=3

"How many of those [Wii games] do you think cost more than $5 million to develop? Probably five," asked Pachter. "And how many cost over $3 million? Probably 100. The problem is that they're so easy to make. I think there are three Wii cheerleader games on the market. There's a lot of that crap around."

I'm not sure if the first quote includes advertising costs though.

Sigtyr · January 2010

cloudeagle wrote: »

Spoiler:

A study conducted by entertainment analysts M2 Research has found that the cost of a multi-platform, next-gen game averages between $18 and $24 million, reports Develop.

The average single-platform game came with a price tag of around $10 million.

That’s still significantly lower than the average cost of a movie, around $65 million. And movie studios usually spend another $35 million on advertising.

Of course, games can be just as pricey. According to the Los Angeles Times, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (pictured above) cost $40 to $50 million to develop and another $200 million to promote.

Game budgets may have ballooned in the past five or six years as the demands of developing for next generation consoles forced game makers to spend more. But game designers have managed to avoid one of the major costs that Hollywood finds itself saddled with: the cost of talent. Whereas many celebrities, directors and even writers ask for millions to just hop on board a film project, we’ve yet to see this kind of spending around games.

Of course, there’s a downside to being overly frugal and cost-conscious when it comes to talent: Work game designers too hard and pay them too little and they might just publicly out you as slave-driving cheapskates.

http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2010/01/game-budgets/#more-19964

That's the average? Good lord.

Holy freakin' crap. A Single console release needs to sell at least 170k to break even on development costs alone. A multiplatform needs to sell between 270k to 470k to break even on development costs as well, using $60 as the norm.

Couscous · January 2010

http://www.develop-online.net/news/33625/Study-Average-dev-cost-as-high-as-28m

New research suggests development budgets are soaring dangerously fast

The average development budget for a multiplatform next-gen game is $18-$28 million, according to new data.

A study by entertainment analyst group M2 Research also puts development costs for single-platform projects at an average of $10 million.

The figures themselves may not be too surprising, with high-profile games often breaking the $40 million barrier.

Polyphony’s Gran Turismo 5 budget is said to be hovering around the $60 million mark, while Modern Warfare 2's budget was said to be as high as $50 million.

The new figures put into focus concerns often fired out by the development community.

Robert Walsh, the CEO of Australian outfit Krome, recently told Develop that game budgets are rising at a frightening pace.

“I think that’s one thing that the press, to a certain extent, is forgetting,” said Walsh in an interview.

“They’re saying sales have increased over ten percent since last year or whatever; I mean, dev costs have probably doubled or tripled in the console transition.”

Walsh’s Krome studio has recently announced layoffs across all three of its studios, citing poor sales that – presumably – failed to satisfy investments.

plufim · January 2010

Couscous wrote: »

“They’re saying sales have increased over ten percent since last year or whatever; I mean, dev costs have probably doubled or tripled in the console transition.”

Jesus Fucking Christ.

Sigtyr · January 2010

Couscous wrote: »

http://www.develop-online.net/news/33625/Study-Average-dev-cost-as-high-as-28m

New research suggests development budgets are soaring dangerously fast

The average development budget for a multiplatform next-gen game is $18-$28 million, according to new data.

A study by entertainment analyst group M2 Research also puts development costs for single-platform projects at an average of $10 million.

The figures themselves may not be too surprising, with high-profile games often breaking the $40 million barrier.

Polyphony’s Gran Turismo 5 budget is said to be hovering around the $60 million mark, while Modern Warfare 2's budget was said to be as high as $50 million.

The new figures put into focus concerns often fired out by the development community.

Robert Walsh, the CEO of Australian outfit Krome, recently told Develop that game budgets are rising at a frightening pace.

“I think that’s one thing that the press, to a certain extent, is forgetting,” said Walsh in an interview.

“They’re saying sales have increased over ten percent since last year or whatever; I mean, dev costs have probably doubled or tripled in the console transition.”

Walsh’s Krome studio has recently announced layoffs across all three of its studios, citing poor sales that – presumably – failed to satisfy investments.

No wonder Microsoft and Sony are creating Natal and the wands. They're probably concerned if they were to create a new generation, who the hell's going to be able to afford to make games for it? Besides the companies with gangbusters of course.

Xagarath · January 2010

And this is why we absolutely do not need a new generation of consoles with fancier graphics, unless we want half the industry collapsing in the first place.

Sheep · January 2010

We sure those numbers don't include advertising?

plufim · January 2010

Arguably that's what we're already seeing happen Xagarath. The blockbuster model is killing a lot of devs. Last generation, a dev could get away with a failure.

You know, I recall Nintendo saying the high costs of game development was one of the reasons to keep the wii underpowered. I think it says something that a Wii game only selling 100k would potentially break even while a HD game selling as much would be considered a complete disaster.

Some quick math:

For a HD twin release, with a $25M budget. Install base is ~70M. Assuming a maximum revenue per game of $40, you'd have to sell 625K just to break even - which is just under 1% of the ENTIRE install base.
For a Wii release, with a $5M budget. Install base is ~60M. Assuming maximum revenue per game of $30, you'd have to sell 167K to break even - which is under 0.3% of the install base.

How the fuck can you garuantee 1 in 100 HD gamers buy your game? That's insanity.

Or considered another way: if you chose to make a HD game, it has to sell 3 times more than it would on the wii.

edit: for completions sake:
Xbox360 exclusive: $10M budget, ~40M install base. $40 revenue per game requires 250K sales, or 0.7% of install base
PS3 exclusive: $10M budget, ~30M install base. $40 revenue per game requires 250K sales, or 0.8% of install base.
Not as bad, but still requires 2-3 times more sales than wii.

And because I'm bored: Gran Turismo 5: $50M budget, ~35M install base (since not out yet, and GT5 will give a sales spike). Will require approxmiately 1.25M sales, which would be 4% of install base. Jesus christ. They'll make that easily though.

edit: fixed my numbers, I apparently suck at %

Xenogears of Bore · January 2010

Sigtyr wrote: »

cloudeagle wrote: »

Spoiler:

A study conducted by entertainment analysts M2 Research has found that the cost of a multi-platform, next-gen game averages between $18 and $24 million, reports Develop.

The average single-platform game came with a price tag of around $10 million.

That’s still significantly lower than the average cost of a movie, around $65 million. And movie studios usually spend another $35 million on advertising.

Of course, games can be just as pricey. According to the Los Angeles Times, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (pictured above) cost $40 to $50 million to develop and another $200 million to promote.

Game budgets may have ballooned in the past five or six years as the demands of developing for next generation consoles forced game makers to spend more. But game designers have managed to avoid one of the major costs that Hollywood finds itself saddled with: the cost of talent. Whereas many celebrities, directors and even writers ask for millions to just hop on board a film project, we’ve yet to see this kind of spending around games.

Of course, there’s a downside to being overly frugal and cost-conscious when it comes to talent: Work game designers too hard and pay them too little and they might just publicly out you as slave-driving cheapskates.

http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2010/01/game-budgets/#more-19964

That's the average? Good lord.

Holy freakin' crap. A Single console release needs to sell at least 170k to break even on development costs alone. A multiplatform needs to sell between 270k to 470k to break even on development costs as well, using $60 as the norm.

Umm, raise that number up a bit. It costs about $8 per game for manufacturing and licensing costs and the margin on games is another $8 or so, plus whatever middleman fees you may or may not have to deal with.

So the publisher probably takes home somewhere around $40 on each $60 they sell. Probably a little bit less in most cases.

cloudeagle · January 2010

Xagarath wrote: »

And this is why we absolutely do not need a new generation of consoles with fancier graphics, unless we want half the industry collapsing in the first place.

I wouldn't be shocked if the third-parties were practically begging Sony and Microsoft to not release new machines.

Hedgethorn · January 2010

Sigtyr wrote: »

cloudeagle wrote: »

Spoiler:

A study conducted by entertainment analysts M2 Research has found that the cost of a multi-platform, next-gen game averages between $18 and $24 million, reports Develop.

The average single-platform game came with a price tag of around $10 million.

That’s still significantly lower than the average cost of a movie, around $65 million. And movie studios usually spend another $35 million on advertising.

Of course, games can be just as pricey. According to the Los Angeles Times, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (pictured above) cost $40 to $50 million to develop and another $200 million to promote.

Game budgets may have ballooned in the past five or six years as the demands of developing for next generation consoles forced game makers to spend more. But game designers have managed to avoid one of the major costs that Hollywood finds itself saddled with: the cost of talent. Whereas many celebrities, directors and even writers ask for millions to just hop on board a film project, we’ve yet to see this kind of spending around games.

Of course, there’s a downside to being overly frugal and cost-conscious when it comes to talent: Work game designers too hard and pay them too little and they might just publicly out you as slave-driving cheapskates.

http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2010/01/game-budgets/#more-19964

That's the average? Good lord.

Holy freakin' crap. A Single console release needs to sell at least 170k to break even on development costs alone. A multiplatform needs to sell between 270k to 470k to break even on development costs as well, using $60 as the norm.

And once you add in the retailer's cut, the producer's cut, the console makers' cut, advertising costs, etc., I'd wager that the average single-platform game needs to sell upwards of 300K just to break even.

Given the way the sales curves tend to look, that basically means if you don't sell 200K the first month, you're screwed. In other words, any 360 or PS3 game that doesn't wind up in the Top 20 during its release month is likely going to be a loss.

Couscous · January 2010

Given the way the sales curves tend to look, that basically means if you don't sell 200K the first month, you're screwed. In other words, any 360 or PS3 game that doesn't wind up in the Top 20 during its release month is likely going to be a loss.

Eh, it is world wide. You might as well ignore Japan for the purposes of western developed games though. So basically you need to sell in Europe and NA which isn't that hard. The main thing is the stupid developers who aren't big but think they can develop big games.

Xenogears of Bore · January 2010

That and big budget games that land with a thud like Bionic Commando and Haze and such. Studio killers.

Also GT5 doesn't have to worry about the license fee so it actually has more profit to play with.

slash000 · January 2010

Sigtyr wrote: »

Holy freakin' crap. A Single console release needs to sell at least 170k to break even on development costs alone. A multiplatform needs to sell between 270k to 470k to break even on development costs as well, using $60 as the norm.

10 million dollars to develop and $60 as the price does not mean that every $60 sale goes to the publisher. Maybe $40 goes to the publisher out of every $60 game sold. So a $10m game not including marketing costs would need at least 250k to break even. Considering a lot of publishers spend at least another ten mil for marketing, you might need at least 500k to break even on a standard single game. And about a million to break even on a game that costs $20 mil to develop across dual platforms and $20 mil to market. So yeah, a decent HD game across 2 platforms with semi-okay marketing might actually need 800k to a million sales just to break even. More to actually make some money.

edit: beat'd by XOB

Xenogears of Bore · January 2010

Marketing costs don't double for multiplatform games. In fact I'd imagine the extra cost would be negligible!

Hedgethorn · January 2010

Couscous wrote: »

Given the way the sales curves tend to look, that basically means if you don't sell 200K the first month, you're screwed. In other words, any 360 or PS3 game that doesn't wind up in the Top 20 during its release month is likely going to be a loss.

Eh, it is world wide. You might as well ignore Japan for the purposes of western developed games though. So basically you need to sell in Europe and NA which isn't that hard. The main thing is the stupid developers who aren't big but think they can develop big games.

Good point. I wasn't thinking of PAL sales.

UncleSporky · January 2010

And "break even" is no sort of success, either. "Break even" is the point where Wii devs are saying they were "unsatisfied" or "disappointed" with sales. Well, at least it was a Wii game, so you broke even instead of having to fire people!

slash000 · January 2010

UncleSporky wrote: »

And "break even" is no sort of success, either. "Break even" is the point where Wii devs are saying they were "unsatisfied" or "disappointed" with sales. Well, at least it was a Wii game, so you broke even instead of having to fire people!

Break even is bad news.

Making only a little bit of profit is bad news, usually.

A lot of "disappointing sales" for 360/PS3/Wii/whatever games were in fact games that made profit - just not enough profit given the expectations that the publisher was banking on.

slash000 · January 2010

I remember when all the newsblogs were making a big hooplah about how Capcom had spent $20 million to develop Lost Planet and $20 million to market it and that was considered like a major OMG massive amount of spending. That CODMW2 number, especially the marketing costs, is pretty scary.

Penny Arcade

Video game sales thread December: It's over, use the new thread

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