MLB: Nearly halfway through the draft! (Slow Draft Rd 11/12 - FortyTwo's up)

Slider · July 2011

So, how bout them Mariners?

SeñorAmor · July 2011

Who's the Mariners' shortstop?

That's all that matters.

simo · July 2011

Butters wrote: »

Vizquel was plenty flashy. He'd easily hurdle anyone that attempted to slide into him and he could bare-hand damn near anything. Sometimes I'd cringe at what he'd grab with his bare hand.

simo wrote: »

pretty much every defensive metric besides fp (including the Eye Test) favors ozzie smith by a pretty significant amount

Including Ozzie's 100 more errors in 3 fewer seasons?

well that is what fielding percentage measures

SeñorAmor · July 2011

Yeah. It doesn't matter if he had 100 more errors if he also had 10,000 more balls hit to him.

Butters · July 2011

He had only a couple hundred more balls hit to him. I'm not going to put one over the other as I am a big fan of both. My original statement was that no was was "better at short than Vizquel" and I stand by it. Also, if you take batting into account you have to give Vizquel the edge there though Jeter is/was definitely a better and stronger hitter than Omar and Ozzie.

simo · July 2011

there's no doubt omar was a great defensive shortstop, and defensively at least, he was approximately one trillion times better than derek jeter

but i don't think he was particularly close to ozzie

Schide · July 2011

Technically, the shortstop who accumulated the most fielding runs was Mark Belanger with 241. Ozzie had 239 but also had 6000 more innings. The next closest is Cal Ripken Jr. with 181. Vizquel had 129.7. I need to note that historically fielding runs are calculated with Total Zone, the main metric that Baseball Reference uses even to this day. Fangraphs has been using Ultimate Zone Rating since 2002 when the stats for that started becoming available. UZR is suppose to be more accurate, but still not perfect, so I don't why you wouldn't want to just use it since it's the best we have right now.

Jeter on the other hand is listed as the second worst shortstop in terms of total fielding run with -114.4, just "behind" Ricky Gutierrez who had -122.8.

However, combining both hitting and fielding and whatnot, Honus Wagner is still the best shortstop ever.

Reginald · July 2011

let's go dodgers?

simo · July 2011

Schide wrote: »

Technically, the shortstop who accumulated the most fielding runs was Mark Belanger with 241. Ozzie had 239 but also had 6000 more innings. The next closest is Cal Ripken Jr. with 181. Vizquel had 129.7. I need to note that historically fielding runs are calculated with Total Zone, the main metric that Baseball Reference uses even to this day. Fangraphs has been using Ultimate Zone Rating since 2002 when the stats for that started becoming available. UZR is suppose to be more accurate, but still not perfect, so I don't why you wouldn't want to just use it since it's the best we have right now.

Jeter on the other hand is listed as the second worst shortstop in terms of total fielding run with -114.4, just "behind" Ricky Gutierrez who had -122.8.

However, combining both hitting and fielding and whatnot, Honus Wagner is still the best shortstop ever.

there's also this article by bill james where he goes into estimating how many plays an infielder (he goes through shortstops in the examples) made vs. how many he should have been expected to make

http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/relative-factors.asp

it's pretty long, but interesting if you're into that kind of thing

it's got some flaws which he goes into (not least of which is that vizquel performs pretty poorly using this metric)

Slider · July 2011

SeñorAmor wrote: »

Who's the Mariners' shortstop?

That's all that matters.

I...don't...know.

Then again, I don't know the 1st, 2nd, 3rd baseman...

FortyTwo · July 2011

Butters wrote: »

SeñorAmor wrote: »

Cal Ripken Jr and Ozzie Smith are both better than Jeter.

Cy Young was a better shortstop than Jeter is.

Omar Vizquel has played 6 more seasons and has 40 less errors on his career. Defensively I don't see how anyone could say there's ever been anyone better at short than Vizquel.

Also, at age 44 he's currently batting higher than Jeter and batted higher last year.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vizquom01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ripkeca01.shtml

Sorry but this is just wrong. Ripken is clearly better. I mean defensively it isn't even close.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_def_career.shtml

In defensive wins above replacement ALL TIME Ripken is 10th. Ozzie Smith is fourth, but Ozzie never had Ripken's bat.

In all time WAR Ripken is 38, Vizquel is tied for 357.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml

Butters · July 2011

WAR is one of many baseball metrics I don't even care to understand.

redfenix · July 2011

This must be what it feels like for non-nerds to stumble into the elitistjerks forums

Maximum · July 2011

Billy Beane can suck a dick. Any list that places Rey Ordonez above Omar Vizquel is rubbish.

Peen · July 2011

JIMMY ROLLINS IS THE BEST SHORTSTOP OF ALL TIME AND HE'S HAVING A CAREER YEAR LALALALALALALA

simo · July 2011

MaximumJ wrote: »

Billy Beane can suck a dick. Any list that places Rey Ordonez above Omar Vizquel is rubbish.

ignoring the nonsensical billy beane statement, which list are you referring to?

Maximum · July 2011

simo wrote: »

MaximumJ wrote: »

Billy Beane can suck a dick. Any list that places Rey Ordonez above Omar Vizquel is rubbish.

ignoring the nonsensical billy beane statement, which list are you referring to?

The third link FortyTwo posted. All time defensive WAR rankings.

I mean, I don't completely understand it, but Andruw Jones is rated as the highest CF of all time?

Butters · July 2011

MaximumJ wrote: »

simo wrote: »

MaximumJ wrote: »

Billy Beane can suck a dick. Any list that places Rey Ordonez above Omar Vizquel is rubbish.

ignoring the nonsensical billy beane statement, which list are you referring to?

The third link FortyTwo posted. All time defensive WAR rankings.

I mean, I don't completely understand it, but Andruw Jones is rated as the highest CF of all time?

Also, Bonds the best LF of all-time even though he couldn't run the latter 3rd of his career. He and Jones are/were apparently better defensively than Vizquel, Ripken, and Willie Mays.

simo · July 2011

MaximumJ wrote: »

simo wrote: »

MaximumJ wrote: »

Billy Beane can suck a dick. Any list that places Rey Ordonez above Omar Vizquel is rubbish.

ignoring the nonsensical billy beane statement, which list are you referring to?

The third link FortyTwo posted. All time defensive WAR rankings.

I mean, I don't completely understand it, but Andruw Jones is rated as the highest CF of all time?

he has the highest defensive war, yes. doesn't necessarily mean he is objectively the best defensive cf ever, it means he scores highest using baseball ref's metric

i can't think of anybody i've seen play who was better than andruw jones (obviously someone who saw willie mays play would probably disagree with baseball ref's results)

also according to that link omar vizquel has a 13.8 dwar (tied for 28th all time) and rey ordonez has a 5.6 dwar (tied for 233rd all time)

you're probably confusing rey sanchez and rey ordonez

Peen · July 2011

I think WAR's pretty dumb, just because it produces lists like that. I get that we want stats that take into account defensive play and I also get that for day to day evaluation of dudes that it can be ok but when you apply it historically like that it just turns into nonsense.

Enraged Guppies · July 2011

To be fair, Andruw Jones went from being an excellent all-around CF (power, silly diving plays) to being a fat lazy DH in a couple years, so his WAR numbers are probably skewed from only playing defensively throughout his prime years.

Maximum · July 2011

It's just a statistic I'm not meant to understand I suppose. I'm old and only familiar with the stats they put on the back of baseball cards when I was a kid.

Get your WAR's and UZR's off my lawn.

simo · July 2011

Peen wrote: »

I think WAR's pretty dumb, just because it produces lists like that. I get that we want stats that take into account defensive play and I also get that for day to day evaluation of dudes that it can be ok but when you apply it historically like that it just turns into nonsense.

comparing players historically using defensive war isn't perfect, partially because there is much more data available now (as schide mentioned earlier since 02 they've used UZR, before that TZ), partially because evaluating defense is harder than evaluating offense

but what else do we have? it seems like most people are just content on judging defense based on the Eye Test. but that has a ton of problems just when comparing players from the same era (joe posnanski has written extensively on the subject), never mind different ones. like can you really say willie mays was a better fielder than andruw jones? based on what? i'm guessing you never saw willie mays play. so you're probably judging him on "the catch" and other people's first-person accounts. but those accounts become exaggerated and expanded over time. good plays become great ones, great ones become spectacular.

stats are there to confirm what we see on the field but also to challenge it, to suggest that maybe some players weren't as great as we remembered and maybe some were better than we thought

Peen · July 2011

Sure and I agree with that; it's really the larger problem that comparing baseball players across historical eras makes me crazy because so much has changed and continues to change. I'm happy to shoot the shit with someone about whether Willie Mays was a better fielder than Andruw Jones but when people try to pull out stats about it I get annoyed because the amount and quality of actual data that we have varies so so much.

I'd way rather have drunken bar arguments with hoary old farts about baseball than try to use fancy metrics on historical figures, beyond a certain point.

simo · July 2011

oh definitely and that's fine, i don't think any sabermetrics fan wants to remove subjectivity from baseball, but rather wants to update/remove/strengthen the parts that try to masquerade as objective (wins, rbi, fielding percentage, etc.)

Nirya · July 2011

I think this is a dumb conversation. Let's talk about how Vernon Wells is actually starting to get hits and rbis and all that jazz.

zucchini · July 2011

Sabremetrics own.

Schide · July 2011

Nirya wrote: »

I think this is a dumb conversation. Let's talk about how Vernon Wells is actually starting to get hits and rbis and all that jazz.

Well, since he came back from injury he's had a .829 OPS, but that's been driven by a high SLG% and only a .280 OBP, which is downright awful. Although in that time his BABIP is only .250, so his AVG might improve, but his walk rate is just terrible. For the year he's still only playing at a replacement level, but perhaps he can improve to something like an average or the above average player he was last year for the rest of the year.

Still most likely to be more valuable in fantasy than real life though.

Nirya · July 2011

Schide wrote: »

Nirya wrote: »

I think this is a dumb conversation. Let's talk about how Vernon Wells is actually starting to get hits and rbis and all that jazz.

Well, since he came back from injury he's had a .829 OPS, but that's been driven by a high SLG% and only a .280 OBP, which is downright awful. Although in that time his BABIP is only .250, so his AVG might improve, but his walk rate is just terrible. For the year he's still only playing at a replacement level, but perhaps he can improve to something like an average or the above average player he was last year for the rest of the year.

Still most likely to be more valuable in fantasy than real life though.

Stop that.

Schide · July 2011

.279 wOBA! -6.9 wRAA! 0.4 UZR!

73 wRC+!

Reginald · July 2011

79 wolfs batted in and a .28 bench rest rate? Amazing!

simo · July 2011

Schide wrote: »

.279 wOBA! -6.9 wRAA! 0.4 UZR!

73 wRC+!

$26,642,857!

Goose! · July 2011

Man, you guys are silly.

Fine, I'll put a statement we can all agree on.

The Geebs That Is A Pony · July 2011

oh no not nuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuumbers

I really don't understand why people are so terrified of them. I mean, I get why certain baseball people don't like it, but it's not really just "billy beane bullshit," or whatever, since virtually every team in the league uses them to a certain extent now.

I mean if you're saying they suck you basically exist on the same level as joe morgan and everyone should aspire to not be joe morgan

Maximum · July 2011

Goose! wrote: »

Man, you guys are silly.

Fine, I'll put a statement we can all agree on.

Great. Now we can argue about Rivera's FPOM vs. Hoffman's pNERD for the next three pages.

zucchini · July 2011

xFAP

Hjorvarthr · July 2011

Shields vs Baker should be very good

Hjorvarthr · July 2011

another awesome twins commercial

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nRm1cOzHyY

Schide · July 2011

Just caught the end of the Red Sox/Blue Jays game where the Jays pretty much got screwed on a bad call at home to end the game.

jwalk · July 2011

Butters wrote: »

WAR is one of many baseball metrics I don't even care to understand.

agreed, what is it good for?

FPOM though, I love that stat.

also

TO: whiners on other teams.

If you don't like the All-Star picks, go ahead win the World Series next time.

Signed,
The World Series Champion San Francisco Giants

Penny Arcade

MLB: Nearly halfway through the draft! (Slow Draft Rd 11/12 - FortyTwo's up)

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