Kuhlmeye tied up the vote and gave the mafia some trickle down kills, which also negated a guard that had been placed on B:L. Kuhlmeye deserves to be voted out as an example so that nobody ever does that again. (Also, so that we don't spend the next 3 days debating his mafianess before finally voting him out anyway.)
All that said, Simonwolf for second place in case of trickle. On a hunch.
I'm dubious of both your reasoning and your hunches. ++suspicion on Feckless rogue.
Too much stupid and sheeping today IMO, not enough digging. Won't give us much to work with tomorrow if we end up with more dead villagers.
Please, tell us what we should be looking into when analyzing the chaos of Day 1.
Well, I already posted the vote list from yesterday. Often a somewhat canny mafia will try to spread itself out to try to avoid easy detection, particularly when there are no mafiaoso up for the chopping block. This can make it so the mafia are more detectable under certain circumstances, such as like when you have a major bandwagon on a villager where the bulk of the dead are already cleared as being villagers, which makes it a bit more likely that the remnants are mafia.
I put my vote on jaysonfour because he helped put B:L and kime in the tie that actually resulted in multiple villagers getting voted off. Plus he doesn't have the normal tourettes that he often has when he is a villager. Witchdoctor was the other guy on the B:L bandwagon and he's also uncleared, and we don't know anything about most of the other folks on the kime, stever, and warban wagons.
Post 482, right at 12am exactly, Kuhlmeye tied the top vote. The vote only kills, if I'm not mistaken, one person. By tying it, it killed two minimum. That's already suspicious shenanigans.
But somehow, the Mafia had the sense to kill both top targets, causing the vote to trickle down past those people Kuhlmeye tied for 1st at exactly 12am and onto those tied for 3rd who then both ate an unguardable vote. What about that is not worthy of the vote?
That said, I do like your reasoning on JaysonFour. Maybe if the vig is paying attention they do too.
Post 482, right at 12am exactly, Kuhlmeye tied the top vote. The vote only kills, if I'm not mistaken, one person. By tying it, it killed two minimum. That's already suspicious shenanigans.
But somehow, the Mafia had the sense to kill both top targets, causing the vote to trickle down past those people Kuhlmeye tied for 1st at exactly 12am and onto those tied for 3rd who then both ate an unguardable vote. What about that is not worthy of the vote?
That said, I do like your reasoning on JaysonFour. Maybe if the vig is paying attention they do too.
The fact that Warban and Steever were tied is irrelevant to the trickle and subsequent deaths of Kime and B:L. Consider what would have happened if Kuhlmeye had not tied the vote. This consideration shouldn't take very long, because the answer is exactly the same thing. Thus, Kuhlmeye's tie-making vote was irrelevant to the mafia's plan and if Kuhlmeye were a member of the mafia he would have known this and had no reason to expose himself.
Hmmm... I had been thinking about that backwards. You're right. That's a good point. I still think tying it was a weird move to make, but you're right that there would be no benefit to a mafioso doing that. If I had voted for him, I'm unvote and go with someone else.
you have to make another vote for an unvote or use bold lime to retract i believe?
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lonelyahavaCall me Ahava ~~She/Her~~Move to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
edited July 2011
so I tried to post this earlier.
goodjesus what the hell happened while I was asleep.
Kuhlmeye's move last night was suspicious. Granted. But then again I can't, and won't, necessarily speak on his overall suspiciousness because I always find him to be shady. Always. I'm fairly certain that if I were to play as masons with Kuhl I'd probably still be suspicious.
Spectre is being Spectre. He's brash, abrasive, tends to be rude, but he really does work for the villages interests most of the time.
Anybody that says there's no information to be gained from Day One needs to be beaten into a stupid pulp.
And they might have been shenanigans (back to Kuhl for a moment) but they might not have. How many of you have barely had a chance to catch up, saw a name in red, and then voted for that person because obviously if they're getting votes at the end of the day, that must be the wagon. last night around vote close was moving fairly quickly, and it was possible to miss votes.
Not saying that's what happened, but it's a possibility.
While I am of the opinion that it is not such a bad idea to have tied votes at this stage of the game (especially when we know exactly what is going to happen in the case of a tie, thanks to GM Clarification), I am also fully aware that it is an incredibly unpopular opinion and tying the vote that blatantly (in the absolute last minute) would nearly guarantee me a lynching care of the mob.
I also am very sure that kuhlmeye is aware of this end as well. Which leads me to be very suspicious of his intentions. I may have missed it, since I've just been skimming to catch up, but has he explained why he tied the vote at the last minute like that?
I'm aware that his tying the vote didn't actually impact anything--the Mafia were killing the top two vote-earners in order to get at the juicy Third Place Tie. Really, for the price of their two kills, they bought an extra kill hassle-free! Crafty, crafty Mafia.
What I'm really interested in, however, is how that Third Place Tie came to be. For much of the day, kime had four votes sitting on him (Drez, 101, Element Brian, Honk), with the last vote on him coming around 7.5 hours before vote close. What's interersting here is that this created a three-way tie for first place (kime, stever777, warban)... but it was so far before vote close, I don't know that it's really that suspicious. I just think that's the most suspicious thing about Honk's vote.
What's more interesting, however, is the vote that brought B:L into a tie with kime for that Third Place Tie. Stever777 brought B:L up to 3, in a retaliatory vote, but he's been verified as a Villager, so we don't have to look there. But, JaysonFour votes for B:L for no reason, claiming video games as a distraction, bringing B:L tied with kime for Third Place with slightly over two hours to vote close.
Today he hasn't voted yet, so I can't comment there, but for the creation of the Third Place Tie (at a time that is close to vote close and where Mafia might send in their final kill orders), I feel I must vote for JaysonFour.
Now, this vote is basically a drop in the pond. kuhlmeye's got a 18 to 9 lead over TehSpectre and my vote (as of when I started typing this) will only bring JaysonFour to a grand total of 3, but I don't really believe either of the two leaders are Mafia. (For the record, simonwolf is in 3rd place with 5 votes.)
I agree that the current bandwagon is a bit silly and that we should be looking at who tied the third and fourth place kills, not the top two.
jasonfour
This late in the day it is pretty much a lock that kuhlmeye is going to die, so at least we will get some information from his (ig)noble sacrifice.
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ElldrenIs a woman dammitceterum censeoRegistered Userregular
edited July 2011
I keep getting Jason Todd and JaysonFour mixed up.
but as others have pointed out, the real shenanigans occurred in creating the third place tie. So while I doubt this will swing things back this late with as big a lead as he has now, I do want to throw my suspicions off !kuhlmeye and onto !JaysonFour.
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lonelyahavaCall me Ahava ~~She/Her~~Move to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
goodjesus what the hell happened while I was asleep.
Kuhlmeye's move last night was suspicious. Granted. But then again I can't, and won't, necessarily speak on his overall suspiciousness because I always find him to be shady. Always. I'm fairly certain that if I were to play as masons with Kuhl I'd probably still be suspicious.
Spectre is being Spectre. He's brash, abrasive, tends to be rude, but he really does work for the villages interests most of the time.
Anybody that says there's no information to be gained from Day One needs to be beaten into a stupid pulp.
And they might have been shenanigans (back to Kuhl for a moment) but they might not have. How many of you have barely had a chance to catch up, saw a name in red, and then voted for that person because obviously if they're getting votes at the end of the day, that must be the wagon. last night around vote close was moving fairly quickly, and it was possible to miss votes.
Not saying that's what happened, but it's a possibility.
Therefore, at this moment, I will go with my gut.
!Lucedes
I wish there was a shifty eyes smiley to respond to this with.
Hmm, from what I see, !kuhlmeye, if evil, would be kinda stupid to stick his neck out by making that tie vote if the mafia were already going to kill the dudes anyways. The vote shenanigans would be a lot more indicative of a mafia if kuhlmeye had no clue what the other mafia were doing. Is that the argument? Because it makes sense.
So, I think I'll vote for !JaysonFour, because Spectre can be excused for jumping on kuhlmeye. I did the same thing when I saw kuhl's vote shenanigans.
Huh. A J4 wagon, wow, such an... obvious mafia ploy.
I'm suspicious, I get that. But I'll kuhlmeye because he was the one who started this whole mess by tying the vote. Why would he tie the vote if he didn't have prior knowledge of what the mafia was going to do? Every vanillager knows tying the vote this early in the game is a dumb move. So I can only see kuhl's name coming up red.
If I die tonight, well, look at the people piling on to me late- with the vig inactive, the mafia will think it me (not very active, usually just vote), so they want to try to steer the vote somewhere else and save kuhlmeye.
But I'll come up vanillager, just like usual.
And yeah, inactive vig? Don't do that. Please either play the game or withdraw so someone else can play.
how do you know that? We didn't know if a tie would do anything special, and if it were me I would pop into the thread at midnight, vote for some random person with a lot of votes, and then pretend I knew what I was doing when it caused a tie.
Huh. A J4 wagon, wow, such an... obvious mafia ploy.
I'm suspicious, I get that. But I'll kuhlmeye because he was the one who started this whole mess by tying the vote. Why would he tie the vote if he didn't have prior knowledge of what the mafia was going to do? Every vanillager knows tying the vote this early in the game is a dumb move. So I can only see kuhl's name coming up red.
If I die tonight, well, look at the people piling on to me late- with the vig inactive, the mafia will think it me (not very active, usually just vote), so they want to try to steer the vote somewhere else and save kuhlmeye.
But I'll come up vanillager, just like usual.
And yeah, inactive vig? Don't do that. Please either play the game or withdraw so someone else can play.
Why would I tie the vote if I did have prior knowledge that the mafia was already killing the top two?
how do you know that? We didn't know if a tie would do anything special, and if it were me I would pop into the thread at midnight, vote for some random person with a lot of votes, and then pretend I knew what I was doing when it caused a tie.
99% of phalla games kill both people who are involved in a tie in my experience.
how do you know that? We didn't know if a tie would do anything special, and if it were me I would pop into the thread at midnight, vote for some random person with a lot of votes, and then pretend I knew what I was doing when it caused a tie.
99% of phalla games kill both people who are involved in a tie in my experience.
Because it would set up a four-kill combo. Most everyone knows tie votes result in both people getting killed. Since we can obviously figure out that vigs are coming before the vote kill, and that the vote trickles, making ties is in the mafia's best interest so they can get rid of more vanillagers and specials per day. It's happening again tonight- I would bet if kuhl is village (which I highly doubt), he'll get mafia'd and Spectre and I will end up tied for the vote. We both go down, mafia cheers, I roll my eyes and go do something else.
how do you know that? We didn't know if a tie would do anything special, and if it were me I would pop into the thread at midnight, vote for some random person with a lot of votes, and then pretend I knew what I was doing when it caused a tie.
99% of phalla games kill both people who are involved in a tie in my experience.
there was one game I thing I had designed that killed not only the people who were tied, but also the tying vote caster.
Posts
Well, I already posted the vote list from yesterday. Often a somewhat canny mafia will try to spread itself out to try to avoid easy detection, particularly when there are no mafiaoso up for the chopping block. This can make it so the mafia are more detectable under certain circumstances, such as like when you have a major bandwagon on a villager where the bulk of the dead are already cleared as being villagers, which makes it a bit more likely that the remnants are mafia.
I put my vote on jaysonfour because he helped put B:L and kime in the tie that actually resulted in multiple villagers getting voted off. Plus he doesn't have the normal tourettes that he often has when he is a villager. Witchdoctor was the other guy on the B:L bandwagon and he's also uncleared, and we don't know anything about most of the other folks on the kime, stever, and warban wagons.
But somehow, the Mafia had the sense to kill both top targets, causing the vote to trickle down past those people Kuhlmeye tied for 1st at exactly 12am and onto those tied for 3rd who then both ate an unguardable vote. What about that is not worthy of the vote?
That said, I do like your reasoning on JaysonFour. Maybe if the vig is paying attention they do too.
The fact that Warban and Steever were tied is irrelevant to the trickle and subsequent deaths of Kime and B:L. Consider what would have happened if Kuhlmeye had not tied the vote. This consideration shouldn't take very long, because the answer is exactly the same thing. Thus, Kuhlmeye's tie-making vote was irrelevant to the mafia's plan and if Kuhlmeye were a member of the mafia he would have known this and had no reason to expose himself.
goodjesus what the hell happened while I was asleep.
Kuhlmeye's move last night was suspicious. Granted. But then again I can't, and won't, necessarily speak on his overall suspiciousness because I always find him to be shady. Always. I'm fairly certain that if I were to play as masons with Kuhl I'd probably still be suspicious.
Spectre is being Spectre. He's brash, abrasive, tends to be rude, but he really does work for the villages interests most of the time.
Anybody that says there's no information to be gained from Day One needs to be beaten into a stupid pulp.
And they might have been shenanigans (back to Kuhl for a moment) but they might not have. How many of you have barely had a chance to catch up, saw a name in red, and then voted for that person because obviously if they're getting votes at the end of the day, that must be the wagon. last night around vote close was moving fairly quickly, and it was possible to miss votes.
Not saying that's what happened, but it's a possibility.
Therefore, at this moment, I will go with my gut.
!Lucedes
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
I also am very sure that kuhlmeye is aware of this end as well. Which leads me to be very suspicious of his intentions. I may have missed it, since I've just been skimming to catch up, but has he explained why he tied the vote at the last minute like that?
I'm aware that his tying the vote didn't actually impact anything--the Mafia were killing the top two vote-earners in order to get at the juicy Third Place Tie. Really, for the price of their two kills, they bought an extra kill hassle-free! Crafty, crafty Mafia.
What I'm really interested in, however, is how that Third Place Tie came to be. For much of the day, kime had four votes sitting on him (Drez, 101, Element Brian, Honk), with the last vote on him coming around 7.5 hours before vote close. What's interersting here is that this created a three-way tie for first place (kime, stever777, warban)... but it was so far before vote close, I don't know that it's really that suspicious. I just think that's the most suspicious thing about Honk's vote.
What's more interesting, however, is the vote that brought B:L into a tie with kime for that Third Place Tie. Stever777 brought B:L up to 3, in a retaliatory vote, but he's been verified as a Villager, so we don't have to look there. But, JaysonFour votes for B:L for no reason, claiming video games as a distraction, bringing B:L tied with kime for Third Place with slightly over two hours to vote close.
Today he hasn't voted yet, so I can't comment there, but for the creation of the Third Place Tie (at a time that is close to vote close and where Mafia might send in their final kill orders), I feel I must vote for JaysonFour.
Now, this vote is basically a drop in the pond. kuhlmeye's got a 18 to 9 lead over TehSpectre and my vote (as of when I started typing this) will only bring JaysonFour to a grand total of 3, but I don't really believe either of the two leaders are Mafia. (For the record, simonwolf is in 3rd place with 5 votes.)
That is correct, yes.
Since you've discovered the Magic Box, are you still requiring Retractions?
I'm just wondering if I should be ignoring counting votes that are simply re-votes without retractions or not.
jasonfour
This late in the day it is pretty much a lock that kuhlmeye is going to die, so at least we will get some information from his (ig)noble sacrifice.
but as others have pointed out, the real shenanigans occurred in creating the third place tie. So while I doubt this will swing things back this late with as big a lead as he has now, I do want to throw my suspicions off !kuhlmeye and onto !JaysonFour.
don't do anything crazy or stupid.
there's 2.5 hours ish left.
Try not to break the place too badly, ok?
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
I am far too deep to go back on my gut now, but he strikes me as a decent target.
If the other vig wants to hit me, so be it. Unless Kuhl is mafia, I dont see them killing me because I usually get voted out a few days in.
It was pretty funny.
I wish there was a shifty eyes smiley to respond to this with.
I want to see that, it looks pretty funny from the trailers. Plus, Jason Bateman is awesome.
Hmm, from what I see, !kuhlmeye, if evil, would be kinda stupid to stick his neck out by making that tie vote if the mafia were already going to kill the dudes anyways. The vote shenanigans would be a lot more indicative of a mafia if kuhlmeye had no clue what the other mafia were doing. Is that the argument? Because it makes sense.
The glorious magic box gives the vote as:
kuhlmeye: 16 (TehSpectre, LemmingHead, romanqwerty, Wandering Hero, Witch Doctor, DBM, Cythraul, AngryPuppy, TehSloth, DasUberEdward, Langly, 101, Raiden333, pablo_price, Farangu, Oats, Drez)
TehSpectre: 10 (cj iwakura, Asiina, Jason Todd, JebusUD, Thomamelas, Dread Pirate Arbuthnot, 21stCentury, Turkson, Baidol, evilbob)
JaysonFour: 8 (Egos, Savant, LaOs, Elldren, chamberlain, Greeper, ShadowThomas, kuhlmeye)
simonwolf: 6 (Honk, simonwolf, Void Slayer, Phyphor, The Cow King, FecklessRogue)
So, I think I'll vote for !JaysonFour, because Spectre can be excused for jumping on kuhlmeye. I did the same thing when I saw kuhl's vote shenanigans.
It's too late in the day to kill Jayson. You guys might as well be voting me.
Consider that you are making another tie or close tie.
Silly move.
I'm suspicious, I get that. But I'll kuhlmeye because he was the one who started this whole mess by tying the vote. Why would he tie the vote if he didn't have prior knowledge of what the mafia was going to do? Every vanillager knows tying the vote this early in the game is a dumb move. So I can only see kuhl's name coming up red.
If I die tonight, well, look at the people piling on to me late- with the vig inactive, the mafia will think it me (not very active, usually just vote), so they want to try to steer the vote somewhere else and save kuhlmeye.
But I'll come up vanillager, just like usual.
And yeah, inactive vig? Don't do that. Please either play the game or withdraw so someone else can play.
I can has cheezburger, yes?
I hope all 3 of us get vigged/voted, honestly.
how do you know that? We didn't know if a tie would do anything special, and if it were me I would pop into the thread at midnight, vote for some random person with a lot of votes, and then pretend I knew what I was doing when it caused a tie.
Why would I tie the vote if I did have prior knowledge that the mafia was already killing the top two?
Confusion will be my epitaph
I decided via RNG once.
That would also fix shenanigans.
I can has cheezburger, yes?
Let's not tie shit again.
Confusion will be my epitaph
there was one game I thing I had designed that killed not only the people who were tied, but also the tying vote caster.
One hour left.
I'm still not sure on Spectre.
But then, I always want him to be good. Always.
What was the argument against Jayson?
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
We just need to avoid a tie. It is the smarter choice.
Zithra Melitch in Star Wars: An Empire's End
Jellica in In the Shadow of Zeus