Wandering Hero and ShadowThomas are also worth looking at, for this and this, which seemed like an attempt to tie Elldren / Lemming, and precipitating Savant stepping in.
You know, considering the vigilante killed Void, we'd still be asking questions about Elldren today had the mafia not acted to create that 3rd place tie in an attempt to smoke Egos by vote to defeat the guard they probably believed to be in place. They really got played last night.
We definitely have inactive/barely-active players.
Also, I'd agree that ShadowThomas' style and choice of votes has me wondering about him. That vote for Elldren actually brought about a Tie between Elldren and LemmingHead--while we had been, for days, trying to avoid ties. (The back-to-back Elldren votes from Wandering Hero and ShadowThomas brought Elldren up.)
We definitely have inactive/barely-active players.
Also, I'd agree that ShadowThomas' style and choice of votes has me wondering about him. That vote for Elldren actually brought about a Tie between Elldren and LemmingHead--while we had been, for days, trying to avoid ties. (The back-to-back Elldren votes from Wandering Hero and ShadowThomas brought Elldren up.)
Thing is, what does that accomplish?
If you believe the narrative that the Farangu/Thom/Egos play was a late-day decision by the mafia to kill their own while trickling the vote over someone they suspected of being guarded, then attempts to create a tie for 1-2 would have drawn some votes out of the bottom tier. A tie is easier to create if you only need to move one or two votes around to create it, and if most of the active votes are concentrated at the top to prevent Bloody Sunday shenanigans from happening a second time, the Elldren/LH tie vote orchestration is easier to pull off.
Remember Elldren had been inexplicably bucking for a 1-2 tie vote from early on, and that post particularly stood out to me, because he tried to intentionally move the conversation past "should we tie" and onto "who will we tie" before the 'should we' part had been decided.
Also, I find this comment extra funny, in light of the result...
... and this one illustrates just how cold-blooded the game can be.
I was at a wedding Saturday, and fell asleep due to three days of partying the following day.
This is actually pretty standard play for me, I just need to survive long enough to drunk post now.
Arasaki on
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TehSlothHit Or MissI Guess They Never Miss, HuhRegistered Userregular
edited July 2011
Ack, sorry I missed last night guys, friend of a friends 21st. Not that I've been hugely important thus far, but it looks like things went pretty well.
It's pretty common to have a large share of inactives in a big game, because it's easier to get lost in the mix, and it can be intimidating to say anything at all if you are new or worried about looking falsely suspicious. It's still worth looking into, though.
You also have to weigh the fact that specials will be tending towards inactivity as well, so be careful. (in my first large phalla, I was a vig who killed one of the village win conditions on accident, because he was pretty inactive. oops)
Yeah, unfortunately that's always the problem--Good Specials often appear the same as Mafia, hiding amongst the inactives and barely-actives.
Like I said earlier, I think it's also important to keep in mind who appears to actually be paying attention to and following the thread, even though their post count is low.
It is a little too quiet in here today considering we have all those awesome vote records. Looking at yesterday, by post 1021 by Arasaki the mafia had to assume the wagon on Lemminghead was too big to derail. But earlier, before the wagon picked up steam, a couple other options got pushed: LaOS (Baidol, Drez) and Farangu (simonwolf, Cythraul).
Looking at their vote records, Simonwolf seems the most like a mafia. He posted a lot on the first day to up his post count and then went into silent mode once the game really began. But of the four people eventually on that wagon (Simonwolf, Cythraul, mafiaVoid Slayer and Myself), two people switched off which allowed the super tie to kill Farangu.
Those two people are mafiaVoid Slayer a couple hours before and Cythraul just one hour before. Hence why I think Cythraul.
There's someone here who I think is pretty blatantly obviously mafia, and I'll be very surprised if they don't turn up mafia when they die. Any guesses as to who that is before they get completely dogpiled?
There's someone here who I think is pretty blatantly obviously mafia, and I'll be very surprised if they don't turn up mafia when they die. Any guesses as to who that is before they get completely dogpiled?
Well, I'm pretty sure it's not you. I know it's not me.
Is it Element Brian? spool32 has pretty much summed up my suspicions of him nicely.
=============
I was kind of hoping there might be more action today in the thread, since I don't really have any real strong suspicions myself (thus the much lower post-count from me today).
I know I just created a tie for 1st between FecklessRogue and Element Brian, but I'm certain that won't stand and, should it come to it, I can withdraw or change my vote to make sure we don't have the tie at the end of the day.
Really, though, I was hoping for some more discussion. Oh well. (still 8 hours left anyway)
There's someone here who I think is pretty blatantly obviously mafia, and I'll be very surprised if they don't turn up mafia when they die. Any guesses as to who that is before they get completely dogpiled?
Well, I'm pretty sure it's not you. I know it's not me.
Is it Element Brian? spool32 has pretty much summed up my suspicions of him nicely.
=============
I was kind of hoping there might be more action today in the thread, since I don't really have any real strong suspicions myself (thus the much lower post-count from me today).
I know I just created a tie for 1st between FecklessRogue and Element Brian, but I'm certain that won't stand and, should it come to it, I can withdraw or change my vote to make sure we don't have the tie at the end of the day.
Really, though, I was hoping for some more discussion. Oh well. (still 8 hours left anyway)
I don't trust Element Brian, myself, so there's your tiebreaker.
With only 8 votes in, I would not be too concerned about ties just yet.
True, we have 32 people left to vote (and just over 7 hours for it). We can expect probably about 8 people not to vote again, as that's roughly the average of non-voters through Days 1-4.
The most notable of the non-voters would have to be Fiaryn--1 vote on Day 1, not a single vote since. (He voted for himself and hasn't been seen since...)
Fiaryn is being uncharacteristically quiet, but he's probably going to get inactivused soon (I would hope anyway given he hasn't posted since day 1).
There are several others like this, Element brian stands out to me as well, classic barely there behaviour: day 1 vote, missed vote, placeholder vote right after narration, missed vote, 1 word vote for one of the more likely villagers
Zandracon is unusually active, posting more than just a vote!
Yeah, we shouldn't be focusing on the totally inactives until the mafia starts neglecting to send in orders entirely. Semi-actives can be fair game though.
I'll tell you my choice for bandwagon prime when I check back a little later. My sense is that the mafia will be a bit more cautious after losing such a big chunk of their numbers last night.
Savant on
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HonkHonk is this poster.Registered User, __BANNED USERSregular
Posts
You know, considering the vigilante killed Void, we'd still be asking questions about Elldren today had the mafia not acted to create that 3rd place tie in an attempt to smoke Egos by vote to defeat the guard they probably believed to be in place. They really got played last night.
By the end? hehehe
Also, I'd agree that ShadowThomas' style and choice of votes has me wondering about him. That vote for Elldren actually brought about a Tie between Elldren and LemmingHead--while we had been, for days, trying to avoid ties. (The back-to-back Elldren votes from Wandering Hero and ShadowThomas brought Elldren up.)
Thing is, what does that accomplish?
Yeah, it was pretty clear that the two of them wouldn't survive past today.
If you believe the narrative that the Farangu/Thom/Egos play was a late-day decision by the mafia to kill their own while trickling the vote over someone they suspected of being guarded, then attempts to create a tie for 1-2 would have drawn some votes out of the bottom tier. A tie is easier to create if you only need to move one or two votes around to create it, and if most of the active votes are concentrated at the top to prevent Bloody Sunday shenanigans from happening a second time, the Elldren/LH tie vote orchestration is easier to pull off.
It really was a pretty amazing day.
Also, I find this comment extra funny, in light of the result...
... and this one illustrates just how cold-blooded the game can be.
Edited! Bad links before.
This is actually pretty standard play for me, I just need to survive long enough to drunk post now.
twitch.tv/tehsloth
It's pretty common to have a large share of inactives in a big game, because it's easier to get lost in the mix, and it can be intimidating to say anything at all if you are new or worried about looking falsely suspicious. It's still worth looking into, though.
You also have to weigh the fact that specials will be tending towards inactivity as well, so be careful. (in my first large phalla, I was a vig who killed one of the village win conditions on accident, because he was pretty inactive. oops)
Like I said earlier, I think it's also important to keep in mind who appears to actually be paying attention to and following the thread, even though their post count is low.
This is two straight days of narration commentary by Chamberlain that set off my mafiadar.
Looking at their vote records, Simonwolf seems the most like a mafia. He posted a lot on the first day to up his post count and then went into silent mode once the game really began. But of the four people eventually on that wagon (Simonwolf, Cythraul, mafiaVoid Slayer and Myself), two people switched off which allowed the super tie to kill Farangu.
Those two people are mafiaVoid Slayer a couple hours before and Cythraul just one hour before. Hence why I think Cythraul.
And with that, sleep.
That line should read "By Arasaki's post at 1021, the Mafia had to conclude the wagon..."
Sorry about that. =P
That's how I read it.
... on my second read-through, since I first also thought you were calling out Arasaki as Mafia. :P
Well, I'm pretty sure it's not you. I know it's not me.
Is it Element Brian? spool32 has pretty much summed up my suspicions of him nicely.
=============
I was kind of hoping there might be more action today in the thread, since I don't really have any real strong suspicions myself (thus the much lower post-count from me today).
I know I just created a tie for 1st between FecklessRogue and Element Brian, but I'm certain that won't stand and, should it come to it, I can withdraw or change my vote to make sure we don't have the tie at the end of the day.
Really, though, I was hoping for some more discussion. Oh well. (still 8 hours left anyway)
I don't trust Element Brian, myself, so there's your tiebreaker.
True, we have 32 people left to vote (and just over 7 hours for it). We can expect probably about 8 people not to vote again, as that's roughly the average of non-voters through Days 1-4.
The most notable of the non-voters would have to be Fiaryn--1 vote on Day 1, not a single vote since. (He voted for himself and hasn't been seen since...)
There are several others like this, Element brian stands out to me as well, classic barely there behaviour: day 1 vote, missed vote, placeholder vote right after narration, missed vote, 1 word vote for one of the more likely villagers
Zandracon is unusually active, posting more than just a vote!
Thus, my wrath is fully directed at Fiaryn.
Yeah, I'm not super active either. But I vote.
Suspicious.
Fiaryn
Of everyone else, Cythraul has the best argument against him. I'll wait to see where the Element Brian bandwagon goes before I chime in on that.
or Cythraullllll
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlcmdx3MF6I
I need to sleep.
Because of an uncharacteristically low posting rate: !ShadowThomas.
DUE, Brian, Feckless.
But it loses its thread