Thanks for the explanation, Capfalcon. I actually tried looking the term up on that Phalla wiki that turns up now and then but 90% of the pages on that, optimistically speaking, seem to have been made by spambots.
A theory of mine kinda got scuppered by INANTP dying, oh well. His fighter was Pterodactyl Man, so it's probably a good idea to bet against that fighter as he won't be around to bribe their stats up (I suppose the mafia could blind bribe to raise all the stats, but that's fine as they'll just be reducing their available cash).
I took a minute to look at the flashwagons from yesterday. Here's what I got.
On page 14, Bedlam posts a vote count that is basically a whole bunch of 1s. At the BOTP, Langly votes for Kias, tying himself and Kias for first. The Kias wagon starts in earnest around Sportzboy's vote in the middle of the next page. Votes for others are interspersed before Roman and SeGaTai push Kias out even further. 1/3 of the way into page 16, Pharezon calls out Goose while 38thDoe piles onto Kias. Egos adds to Kias and then Goose comes out talking about being in a second place tie and vote trickle/ME Phalla mechanics and how he will RNG his vote. Shabooty votes him. Goose gets defensive about Shabooty tying the second place vote.
This is where I make a half-joke, half-goose-is-being-goofy-and-suspicious post. Then all hell breaks loose. Phyphor, JABMonkey, Corvidae all vote for Goose within 7 minutes of me. I check the magic box and it says that Goose has risen from 2nd place to tie for out of nowhere. This makes me nervous, and apparently I wasn't the only one, as Phyphor also comments on how quick that shifted. So I switch back to Kias, voicing my concern.
Kias stays in first for awhile. Then, on page 20, INANTP makes a joke vote about Langly. Tayrun, sportrtzboy, Corvidae and Kime all switch shortly thereafter. The Magic Box reports that this is the second time a wagon has overtaken Kias, once again out of nowhere in a flash. INANTP rightfully backs away from his joke, and just as earlier when I switched back, the wagon falls apart.
To recap:
first flash wagon (Goose) Pharezon, Shabooty, Myself, Phyphor, JABMonkey, Corvidae.
second flash wagon (Langly) INANTP, Tayrun, Sportzboy, Corvidae, Kime.
I don't know if these flashwagons are just villagers sheeping, coincidence, or mafia shenanigans, but both felt really weird at the time. Corvidae seems like the obvious target, but perhaps too obvious.
Either way, somebody came out a little early and ruined the vote records, so let's all pile onto kime.
Remember, if you are a network / seer, don't reveal until the middle of the day. And actually, for this game, if you are revealing that you seer'd somebody as good, come out and ask to be voted. Send your money to the person you seer'd. Then, during the witching hour, give us their name.
That ensures they live until the next day when we know you weren't lying, and also that they have the money to defend themselves during that first day before transfers come in.
And actually, for this game, if you are revealing that you seer'd somebody as good, come out and ask to be voted. Send your money to the person you seer'd. Then, during the witching hour, give us their name.
That ensures they live until the next day when we know you weren't lying, and also that they have the money to defend themselves during that first day before transfers come in.
So you're saying people should sacrifice themselves every time they seer anybody as village? :P Hurrah, we've confirmed somebody is good! For the price of voting out somebody who is also good...
Revealing seer results that people are village in the thread doesn't seem very useful to me unless it's an attempt to hit the emergency brake on a bandwagon against an innocent. Better to use those results to approach people privately and start network-building.
Anyway, I think Corvidae (for perhaps too-obvious reasons) and Shabooty (for reasons I already mentioned) are definitely the fishiest of those who rode the flashwagons.
Did sportzboytjw actually buy a seer on kime, or is this a mafia throwing mafia under the wagon to establish a fake network trick?
Is my paranoia acting up?
Am I a turnip!?
On the balance of it, I think that I am not a turnip, because I have legs.
But corvidae said that his seer bid was outbid, so I guess at least three seer bids were made last night?
One of them could be sportzboytjw. <- most likely?
Intereeessstiiinnnngggg
Paranoid interpretation: Both corvidae and sportzboytjw are both mafia, pulling an elaborate con. If so, well played gents, well played.
Given the fact the game seems to be somewhat weighted towards the mafia with the betting mechanics and such (as discussed during all the strategizing yesterday), I wouldn't be surprised if the mafia is somewhat smaller than you'd ordinarily expect for a game of this size. I can't see them intentionally sacrificing one of their own. Hell, it's a huge risk for them to sacrifice one of their own even for a normal-sized mafia.
i switched my vote several times, i was drinking and bored, and none of the wagons looked good or were entirely understandable to me.
i'm totally village. if you cats want to waste money on vigging me, i tell you it's a waste. i won't bother wasting my money on a gaurd.
the only reason i got a guard yesterday was because i very publicly stated my intentions on paying for a seer to start up a network, and i didn't want the seering to die with me. well, sportz and at least one other person outbid me (the 2nd was prob mafia, since no one else is coming forward with a second seer claim). unfortunately, my cash goes with me, or i can gamble on who to give it to.
or maybe instead, i can spend it all on a wild vig shot.
Did sportzboytjw actually buy a seer on kime, or is this a mafia throwing mafia under the wagon to establish a fake network trick?
Is my paranoia acting up?
If someone else had manage to buy a full seering they would be know the current seering was fake. And they could call out on this. I don't see mafia risking this move with possible so much on the line with yesterdays voting records. (if they turn out to be correct at catching mafia)
ACE ✰ PONY ✰ DETECTIVE!
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warbanWho the Hoof do you think we are?Registered Userregular
Kime.
ACE ✰ PONY ✰ DETECTIVE!
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38thDoelets never be stupid againwait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered Userregular
Bad thread! Stop being so active while I'm asleep.
Seer test on kime.
Did sportzboytjw actually buy a seer on kime, or is this a mafia throwing mafia under the wagon to establish a fake network trick?
Is my paranoia acting up?
If someone else had manage to buy a full seering they would be know the current seering was fake. And they could call out on this. I don't see mafia risking this move with possible so much on the line with yesterdays voting records. (if they turn out to be correct at catching mafia)
i was outbid on the seering. so else seered last night?
my dunalist
langley.
Ok, you guys realize that I was the second vote on kias, and that he was mafia, and that the mafia pushed votes onto me in attempt to save him? By voting for him yesterday, I put him in a tie for the lead at two votes. And then I pushed peole privately to vote for him (well not specifically him, but not me, and he was as good as any, being that he wasn't me. I didn't think he was mafia until the vote started swinging around.
I got the dirty cop role, it is true, I am survival neutral. It is a cruel twist of fate given the previous game.
If you think I would claim that silly role as a mafia, you are crazy.
warbanWho the Hoof do you think we are?Registered Userregular
Can you tell us any details about your roll? Or like how much money you gain each day or if you can do anything to help the village that we should know about?
ACE ✰ PONY ✰ DETECTIVE!
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warbanWho the Hoof do you think we are?Registered Userregular
Did sportzboytjw actually buy a seer on kime, or is this a mafia throwing mafia under the wagon to establish a fake network trick?
Is my paranoia acting up?
If someone else had manage to buy a full seering they would be know the current seering was fake. And they could call out on this. I don't see mafia risking this move with possible so much on the line with yesterdays voting records. (if they turn out to be correct at catching mafia)
Unless the mafia bought the seer.
This Is a posablity. But sportzboytjw only has simply outed kime. He still shouldn't be trusted outright. I still think the idea of seering a villager, calling them as villager then lynching ones-self is the best and only way to confirm a network head.
Also I am actually neutral in this game, not just a pretend faction village neutral thing. I will be abiding by that in this game. I told several people in an attempt to not be viciously murdered on day one, but now that it's out there (thanks, dani), it's out there.
So I bet
Match 1: Brunch Hearththrob $261
Match 2: El Diablo Robotico $261
Match 3: El Contador $261
How do you folks think I will do?
Match 1: Brunch Hearththrob $261 (lost)
Match 2: El Diablo Robotico $261 (tie)
Match 3: El Contador $261 (win)
I bet $783, my winnings were $1251, for a profit of $468. I figure this info might help folks figure out how people bet last night.
So far, a shotgun betting approach has been profitable. No clue how ties affected things though.
So I bet
Match 1: Brunch Hearththrob $261
Match 2: El Diablo Robotico $261
Match 3: El Contador $261
How do you folks think I will do?
Match 1: Brunch Hearththrob $261 (lost)
Match 2: El Diablo Robotico $261 (tie)
Match 3: El Contador $261 (win)
I bet $783, my winnings were $1251, for a profit of $468. I figure this info might help folks figure out how people bet last night.
So far, a shotgun betting approach has been profitable. No clue how ties affected things though.
I bought a seering on Kime. As one of our better/cannier players, I hoped I could out him as a villager/headofnetwork late in the day while asking for you guys to vote me.
Instead, he is a cop and needs to die. I guess I should have let patterns set in and all but I was so brokenhearted
How much did you spend on it?
$3037.
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TylerJ on League of Legends (it's free and fun!)
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sportzboytjwsqueeeeeezzeeeesome more tax breaks outRegistered Userregular
I bought a seering on Kime. As one of our better/cannier players, I hoped I could out him as a villager/headofnetwork late in the day while asking for you guys to vote me.
Instead, he is a cop and needs to die. I guess I should have let patterns set in and all but I was so brokenhearted
How much did you spend on it?
$3037.
We should probably figure out a way to avoid wasting the village's money on this shit, because I lost over $2k because of you.
How much did you bid, and what was your rationale for going so high (both of you)?
So guys, I know that discussion is good, but remember that the main reason we decided against organizing betting is that it would tell the mafia where the money is concentrated. That would be very very bad for us, as it tells the mafia how to kill the few people that raked in the dough and leaves the rest of the village impotent.
So please, let's not be so revealing with the results of our bets.
Posts
Zithra Melitch in Star Wars: An Empire's End
Jellica in In the Shadow of Zeus
Kime
also la parka represent!
On page 14, Bedlam posts a vote count that is basically a whole bunch of 1s. At the BOTP, Langly votes for Kias, tying himself and Kias for first. The Kias wagon starts in earnest around Sportzboy's vote in the middle of the next page. Votes for others are interspersed before Roman and SeGaTai push Kias out even further. 1/3 of the way into page 16, Pharezon calls out Goose while 38thDoe piles onto Kias. Egos adds to Kias and then Goose comes out talking about being in a second place tie and vote trickle/ME Phalla mechanics and how he will RNG his vote. Shabooty votes him. Goose gets defensive about Shabooty tying the second place vote.
This is where I make a half-joke, half-goose-is-being-goofy-and-suspicious post. Then all hell breaks loose. Phyphor, JABMonkey, Corvidae all vote for Goose within 7 minutes of me. I check the magic box and it says that Goose has risen from 2nd place to tie for out of nowhere. This makes me nervous, and apparently I wasn't the only one, as Phyphor also comments on how quick that shifted. So I switch back to Kias, voicing my concern.
Kias stays in first for awhile. Then, on page 20, INANTP makes a joke vote about Langly. Tayrun, sportrtzboy, Corvidae and Kime all switch shortly thereafter. The Magic Box reports that this is the second time a wagon has overtaken Kias, once again out of nowhere in a flash. INANTP rightfully backs away from his joke, and just as earlier when I switched back, the wagon falls apart.
To recap:
first flash wagon (Goose) Pharezon, Shabooty, Myself, Phyphor, JABMonkey, Corvidae.
second flash wagon (Langly) INANTP, Tayrun, Sportzboy, Corvidae, Kime.
I don't know if these flashwagons are just villagers sheeping, coincidence, or mafia shenanigans, but both felt really weird at the time. Corvidae seems like the obvious target, but perhaps too obvious.
Remember, if you are a network / seer, don't reveal until the middle of the day. And actually, for this game, if you are revealing that you seer'd somebody as good, come out and ask to be voted. Send your money to the person you seer'd. Then, during the witching hour, give us their name.
That ensures they live until the next day when we know you weren't lying, and also that they have the money to defend themselves during that first day before transfers come in.
So you're saying people should sacrifice themselves every time they seer anybody as village? :P Hurrah, we've confirmed somebody is good! For the price of voting out somebody who is also good...
Revealing seer results that people are village in the thread doesn't seem very useful to me unless it's an attempt to hit the emergency brake on a bandwagon against an innocent. Better to use those results to approach people privately and start network-building.
Anyway, I think Corvidae (for perhaps too-obvious reasons) and Shabooty (for reasons I already mentioned) are definitely the fishiest of those who rode the flashwagons.
kime.
Did sportzboytjw actually buy a seer on kime, or is this a mafia throwing mafia under the wagon to establish a fake network trick?
Is my paranoia acting up?
Am I a turnip!?
On the balance of it, I think that I am not a turnip, because I have legs.
But corvidae said that his seer bid was outbid, so I guess at least three seer bids were made last night?
One of them could be sportzboytjw. <- most likely?
Intereeessstiiinnnngggg
Paranoid interpretation: Both corvidae and sportzboytjw are both mafia, pulling an elaborate con. If so, well played gents, well played.
Given the fact the game seems to be somewhat weighted towards the mafia with the betting mechanics and such (as discussed during all the strategizing yesterday), I wouldn't be surprised if the mafia is somewhat smaller than you'd ordinarily expect for a game of this size. I can't see them intentionally sacrificing one of their own. Hell, it's a huge risk for them to sacrifice one of their own even for a normal-sized mafia.
KIME!!!!
i switched my vote several times, i was drinking and bored, and none of the wagons looked good or were entirely understandable to me.
i'm totally village. if you cats want to waste money on vigging me, i tell you it's a waste. i won't bother wasting my money on a gaurd.
the only reason i got a guard yesterday was because i very publicly stated my intentions on paying for a seer to start up a network, and i didn't want the seering to die with me. well, sportz and at least one other person outbid me (the 2nd was prob mafia, since no one else is coming forward with a second seer claim). unfortunately, my cash goes with me, or i can gamble on who to give it to.
or maybe instead, i can spend it all on a wild vig shot.
Kime is the worst cop.
If someone else had manage to buy a full seering they would be know the current seering was fake. And they could call out on this. I don't see mafia risking this move with possible so much on the line with yesterdays voting records. (if they turn out to be correct at catching mafia)
Seer test on kime.
Ok, you guys realize that I was the second vote on kias, and that he was mafia, and that the mafia pushed votes onto me in attempt to save him? By voting for him yesterday, I put him in a tie for the lead at two votes. And then I pushed peole privately to vote for him (well not specifically him, but not me, and he was as good as any, being that he wasn't me. I didn't think he was mafia until the vote started swinging around.
I got the dirty cop role, it is true, I am survival neutral. It is a cruel twist of fate given the previous game.
If you think I would claim that silly role as a mafia, you are crazy.
If anything, last night confirms me as not mafia
It just looks like you're making a vote, not a seer claim.
Smoove was who I went for.
This Is a posablity. But sportzboytjw only has simply outed kime. He still shouldn't be trusted outright. I still think the idea of seering a villager, calling them as villager then lynching ones-self is the best and only way to confirm a network head.
My goal is survival or to make 50k and exit.
So
That's a long climb.
I'm here to make money and to not get killed.
Anyway, kime.
Confusion will be my epitaph
Confusion will be my epitaph
Match 1: Brunch Hearththrob $261 (lost)
Match 2: El Diablo Robotico $261 (tie)
Match 3: El Contador $261 (win)
I bet $783, my winnings were $1251, for a profit of $468. I figure this info might help folks figure out how people bet last night.
So far, a shotgun betting approach has been profitable. No clue how ties affected things though.
I'll throw my Kime vote down now.
Well yeah I lost my shirt in that match too
_____________________________________________
HoTS: Schmutz#1686
$3037.
TylerJ on League of Legends (it's free and fun!)
Langly actually getting voted would have only made the joke funnier. It would have entered legend.
TylerJ on League of Legends (it's free and fun!)
How much did you bid, and what was your rationale for going so high (both of you)?
and he went high because obviously other people would be bidding, and he was right. He just didn't go high enough.
So please, let's not be so revealing with the results of our bets.