he said he was going to vote for bedlam for self-voting
then bedlam changed his vote
then sega said "easily convinced, I guess" (referring to bedlam being easily convinced to not self-vote) and changed his vote to someone else he presumably had a suspicion about
it was kind of a perfect storm of stuff that seemed incriminating but actually, really, wasn't very much at all with a little thought applied
Yeah but read Bedlams post and not just the vote Bedlam said leave him alive and he will do his best tomorrow which is what i believe sega responded to with his "easily convinced" comment.
As for my low post count I didnt really see much that I had to contribute to the conversation for the first couple of days, just been sitting back watching things happen and now I have more to say so im saying it. As for my outlying vote I really didnt feel either of the vote leaders were all that suspicious so I tossed a vote on someone who seemed to be trying to lay low and one of the only people who had even fewer posts than me.
That is a fair charge of me Figgy. I came into the game a bit late and forgot the start time...I think. I could go back and look at my first post in the thread but I can't really be bothered right now.
Day 1 is day 1. Day 2, I've tried to soft network with some people to get a feel for what's going on. Very little conversation so I'm trying to participate now. I did not return for the roman vote change because I did what I normally do on evenings when I have no plans: I watch TV and play games. I got caught up in some ME3 gold missions with a friend and forgot to check in between rounds.
The late wagon makes me only half suspicious, that was a trend in the last game a bit. The other throw-away votes at the end of the day I would put less stock in. If jdark (for example) was mafia I can understand the toss-away vote but not in a close race to save a mafia brother. That or he just didn't agree with the wagon (which in retrospect was the right idea).
I re-read stuff from last night and I don't think I would've made a different decision.
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FiggyFighter of the night manChampion of the sunRegistered Userregular
The other throw-away votes at the end of the day I would put less stock in. If jdark (for example) was mafia I can understand the toss-away vote but not in a close race to save a mafia brother. That or he just didn't agree with the wagon (which in retrospect was the right idea).
And Dumpshock? Minimal posts each day and playing exactly like he has in the only other phalla he's played in here, and was also mafia? Methinks you dismiss too easily.
The other throw-away votes at the end of the day I would put less stock in. If jdark (for example) was mafia I can understand the toss-away vote but not in a close race to save a mafia brother. That or he just didn't agree with the wagon (which in retrospect was the right idea).
And Dumpshock? Minimal posts each day and playing exactly like he has in the only other phalla he's played in here, and was also mafia? Methinks you dismiss too easily.
I was actually thinking something similar.
Dumpshock especially struck me as new guy laying low mafia in the last game, and was. He might not have a diverse enough repertoire to try and change it up yet.
Additionally - I can't find it now, but I thought I read a post where someone claimed that our best option was to look at people on the Segatai bandwagon instead of looking at Anialos directly? Maybe I'm crazy. But if I'm not, that is absurdly mafia thing to suggest. If you believe that Anialos was spared by mafia voting in the Segatai bandwagon, then the best way to prove that would be to look at Anialos first.
Of course, seeing as I can't find it, I am.. probably just going insane and making up posts.
The other throw-away votes at the end of the day I would put less stock in. If jdark (for example) was mafia I can understand the toss-away vote but not in a close race to save a mafia brother. That or he just didn't agree with the wagon (which in retrospect was the right idea).
And Dumpshock? Minimal posts each day and playing exactly like he has in the only other phalla he's played in here, and was also mafia? Methinks you dismiss too easily.
I was actually thinking something similar.
Dumpshock especially struck me as new guy laying low mafia in the last game, and was. He might not have a diverse enough repertoire to try and change it up yet.
Additionally - I can't find it now, but I thought I read a post where someone claimed that our best option was to look at people on the Segatai bandwagon instead of looking at Anialos directly? Maybe I'm crazy. But if I'm not, that is absurdly mafia thing to suggest. If you believe that Anialos was spared by mafia voting in the Segatai bandwagon, then the best way to prove that would be to look at Anialos first.
Of course, seeing as I can't find it, I am.. probably just going insane and making up posts.
Well I would say that if you don't think Anialos isn't mafia, it would be a good idea to look at people on the segatai wagon.
So if on one hand, Anialos is mafia, so mafia would be on the sega wagon to save anialos.
and on the other
Anialos isn't mafia, but the mafia do need to vote, and the sega wagon bloomed pretty quickly and has a high chance of having mafia on it (because jumping on a bandwagon that targets a non-mafia is a great way to hide)
then you could make the argument that looking closely at those voters instead of anialos is going to be more profitable, because either way, it is going to have mafia, whereas there is a pretty high chance that anialos isn't bad.
Not that Anialos is a bad target, I just don't think that him being mafia or not is going to really change the amount of people on the sega wagon. Though, If he isn't mafia, they might split up between anialos/sega.
Anyway, all that to say it seems like a false dichotomy.
As long as we're examining all the people who seem to be laying low, I'm going to point out Towndrunk for the moment. He has only posted a total of four times by my count and his votes have been a throwaway on day 1, and a vote on Personface during the brief period where he had attracted attention for being a goofball on day 2.
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Shiny New Toyswhere am i?its dark in hereRegistered Userregular
Okay, I now very confused with all that has happened since the last time I looked at this thread!
Having read through everything once I still am a little confused about the number of arguments flying around. I really hope there is some kind of village network working behind the scenes on something.
figgy - thanks for the vote analysis, its really useful and something I tell myself I will do then never actually get round to!
I will reread the thread to see if I can see anything.
The point in going after the saved versus the ones who saved, if you suspect mafia involvement, is that if you do find the saved to be mafia you know that you need to look at the ones in the votes.
Even if you pick someone who was playing with the vote and they turn out mafia, that isn't really any strong indicator on the one saved.
As you said yourself, the mafia need to vote and will be in there somewhere, and it makes connections that go one way but not so much the other.
Basically Anialos gives you the much better followup action and confidence if you suspect that mafia were involved at all.
The thing with the segatai wagon saving anialos is that the first sega wagon came when anialos only had one vote if anything the anialos vote looked like it was trying to save sega. My question earlier was who was in the lead then or had some momentum as a target when the sega wagon started.
edit: looked at the votes a little closer and yeah maybe there is something with the later push for sega once anialos started to gain some votes
Nullzone is trying too hard. I should put some laxatives in his food. Kime, what do you suggest?
On a non-RP note, Infidel because Bedlam is sounding better.
How exactly does Bedlam lead you to vote for me? I think he may be interested in that as well. Are you just wanting to incite a villager vs villager wagon or what?
I find people trusting Langly to be suspicious. Im not sure what that trust is even based on (mafia buddies?) and I think its suspicious that he seems to be one of the main reasons everyone jumped on segatai.
You're voting for Langly because you think he is mafia. (If not, well then......)
You think he is mafia because he has supporters.
The logic being that his supporters make you think they are in league, and if Langly is mafia that makes his supporters mafia.
If Langly is mafia, a villager supporting him does not in any way indicate that he is mafia.
If Langly is innocent and the supporter is the mafia, then they are riding coattails and you should be looking at the supporters (which is the very logic against Anialos).
So your Langly argument hinges on a mafia pubicly supporting another mafias vote to get a wagon started from scratch.
Therefore, you should follow Bedlam's logic only on the basis that you believe Langly is mafia and that other mafia publicly supported him in the thread.
Yeah I was thinking about it and Langly has been very polite in answering my questions.
You on the other hand have been very dismissive and condesending today.
To th'boys, whatever is left of my estate
Excepting the contents of the medicine cabinet, which I demand are to be burned unopened and unused
I shan't throw another t'my fate
Dumpshock especially struck me as new guy laying low mafia in the last game, and was. He might not have a diverse enough repertoire to try and change it up yet.
You maybe on to something here........
If you read the proboards for last phalla I basically asked a couple questions that I could have (and eventually did) answered with more research on my own. Also I was with a group of experienced players that was a bit intimidating. Attributing all that to Laying low = EPIC DUMPSHOCK MAFIA WIN is a bit of a stretch.
As for my voting yesterday...... up until 4pm CST I hadn't seen anything that screamed mafia and keeping in mind that last game the village eat itself, I wasn't willing to just jump on a mid-day bandwagon. After 4pm I was inactive, not plotting your demise on the mafia boards.
I still need to read back over last night and this mornings pages because I've only skimmed them but it looks like no mafia were hit, we lost the vig, and the bandwagons tended to swing. I really don't regret my place holder vote, sorry.
DumpShock on
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Shiny New Toyswhere am i?its dark in hereRegistered Userregular
Is there any traction behind being suspicious of Personface for avoiding being hit when Assuran died? Are we just assuming that the mafia or a neutral took him out and he wasn't guarded or a guard got taken out as well?
I dont think this has been discussed but I would assume that the guard was on Assuran right? Otherwise wtf!
Having written this post and sounded it out in my head it doesnt seem likely that Personface would have any clue about this as all orders had to be in before the hit was called.
So basically my not very eloquent ramblings are how did our vig die and not get guarded?!
Did you have a response or issue with my construction of your argument?
Or are you just going to attack me for doing so?
Just asking.
The last sentence is definetly wrong.
I think Langly and his supporters can be any combination of mafia and not-mafia. And that there is no way to be sure of anyone without a seer or death result.
The part that strikes me as odd is trusting someone so completly at the begining of a game. Each new game means a new RNG and no matter how good of friends you are with someone wont stop them from being on the opposite team as you.
I think Langly and his supporters can be any combination of mafia and not-mafia.
If you don't want to be rational, sure. Seriously, I've explained how the only reason to rationally follow your logic is that you think Langly is mafia and that he had mafia supporters that you identified that exposed themselves like that. Unless you care to give another sound reasoning that has them be something else.
The part that strikes me as odd is trusting someone so completly at the begining of a game. Each new game means a new RNG and no matter how good of friends you are with someone wont stop them from being on the opposite team as you.
Trust is given and does not rely on or represent perfect knowledge. That is what it means to trust.
mafia is likely keeping 10 foot pole between themselves and all this arguing . And yeah Infidel is always condescending ,relatively speaking, I don't see what the great revelation is there.
Attention passengers! This is your entertainment director speaking. We're gonna have a wonderful activity for you today! It's time for a good old fashioned limbo contest! We're gonna see who can lay low.... I mean get down! Come join us for some fun!
For real, just got unhungover enough to follow along. I definitely like figgy's stuff there. Still thinking today will be a trainwreck.
really I didn't want to say this earlier but the "four posts! what?!" thing reeks of "shit, how am I going to manage to say four things without revealing myself"
The other throw-away votes at the end of the day I would put less stock in. If jdark (for example) was mafia I can understand the toss-away vote but not in a close race to save a mafia brother. That or he just didn't agree with the wagon (which in retrospect was the right idea).
And Dumpshock? Minimal posts each day and playing exactly like he has in the only other phalla he's played in here, and was also mafia? Methinks you dismiss too easily.
I was actually thinking something similar.
Dumpshock especially struck me as new guy laying low mafia in the last game, and was. He might not have a diverse enough repertoire to try and change it up yet.
Additionally - I can't find it now, but I thought I read a post where someone claimed that our best option was to look at people on the Segatai bandwagon instead of looking at Anialos directly? Maybe I'm crazy. But if I'm not, that is absurdly mafia thing to suggest. If you believe that Anialos was spared by mafia voting in the Segatai bandwagon, then the best way to prove that would be to look at Anialos first.
Of course, seeing as I can't find it, I am.. probably just going insane and making up posts.
Well I would say that if you don't think Anialos isn't mafia, it would be a good idea to look at people on the segatai wagon.
So if on one hand, Anialos is mafia, so mafia would be on the sega wagon to save anialos.
and on the other
Anialos isn't mafia, but the mafia do need to vote, and the sega wagon bloomed pretty quickly and has a high chance of having mafia on it (because jumping on a bandwagon that targets a non-mafia is a great way to hide)
then you could make the argument that looking closely at those voters instead of anialos is going to be more profitable, because either way, it is going to have mafia, whereas there is a pretty high chance that anialos isn't bad.
Not that Anialos is a bad target, I just don't think that him being mafia or not is going to really change the amount of people on the sega wagon. Though, If he isn't mafia, they might split up between anialos/sega.
Anyway, all that to say it seems like a false dichotomy.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the SeGaTai wagon have a larger margin to begin with? While looking at the 2nd wave of it might have merit, you also might want to consider people who were active but declined to support the competing analios wagon (if he turns out to be mafia). Like, did anyone switch off from either of those 2 to the WTF figgy wagon?
Is there any traction behind being suspicious of Personface for avoiding being hit when Assuran died? Are we just assuming that the mafia or a neutral took him out and he wasn't guarded or a guard got taken out as well?
I dont think this has been discussed but I would assume that the guard was on Assuran right? Otherwise wtf!
Having written this post and sounded it out in my head it doesnt seem likely that Personface would have any clue about this as all orders had to be in before the hit was called.
So basically my not very eloquent ramblings are how did our vig die and not get guarded?!
Personface actually did die, munkus made a mistake and the narration fluff originally really wasn't clear about that fact. And Well... the 2nd mafia kill did seem to be blocked, so that's something?
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vertroueI am FemaleTotes Not a SithRegistered Userregular
Hey at this point since we still don't have a nethead ye,t infy usually gets followed around when he votes. He knows this hence why he enjoys jumping around and watching us peons dance to his tune.
Blood and Fire
From the Desk of Darth Vertroue Diplomat to the USA.
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Yeah but read Bedlams post and not just the vote Bedlam said leave him alive and he will do his best tomorrow which is what i believe sega responded to with his "easily convinced" comment.
As for my low post count I didnt really see much that I had to contribute to the conversation for the first couple of days, just been sitting back watching things happen and now I have more to say so im saying it. As for my outlying vote I really didnt feel either of the vote leaders were all that suspicious so I tossed a vote on someone who seemed to be trying to lay low and one of the only people who had even fewer posts than me.
or did I dream that
I'm just mentally deficient.
He said he changed from Bedlam because Bedlams post convinced him he wasnt mafia, it was just before vote close i think.
Day 1 is day 1. Day 2, I've tried to soft network with some people to get a feel for what's going on. Very little conversation so I'm trying to participate now. I did not return for the roman vote change because I did what I normally do on evenings when I have no plans: I watch TV and play games. I got caught up in some ME3 gold missions with a friend and forgot to check in between rounds.
The late wagon makes me only half suspicious, that was a trend in the last game a bit. The other throw-away votes at the end of the day I would put less stock in. If jdark (for example) was mafia I can understand the toss-away vote but not in a close race to save a mafia brother. That or he just didn't agree with the wagon (which in retrospect was the right idea).
I re-read stuff from last night and I don't think I would've made a different decision.
And Dumpshock? Minimal posts each day and playing exactly like he has in the only other phalla he's played in here, and was also mafia? Methinks you dismiss too easily.
Let's go with him.
it's not that much for people who hang out in SE. We're a different breed.
Things in CF happen much more...slowly, sometimes.
I was actually thinking something similar.
Dumpshock especially struck me as new guy laying low mafia in the last game, and was. He might not have a diverse enough repertoire to try and change it up yet.
Additionally - I can't find it now, but I thought I read a post where someone claimed that our best option was to look at people on the Segatai bandwagon instead of looking at Anialos directly? Maybe I'm crazy. But if I'm not, that is absurdly mafia thing to suggest. If you believe that Anialos was spared by mafia voting in the Segatai bandwagon, then the best way to prove that would be to look at Anialos first.
Of course, seeing as I can't find it, I am.. probably just going insane and making up posts.
BUT YOU ARE STILL SUSPICIOUS, HERR DOCTOR.
Well I would say that if you don't think Anialos isn't mafia, it would be a good idea to look at people on the segatai wagon.
So if on one hand, Anialos is mafia, so mafia would be on the sega wagon to save anialos.
and on the other
Anialos isn't mafia, but the mafia do need to vote, and the sega wagon bloomed pretty quickly and has a high chance of having mafia on it (because jumping on a bandwagon that targets a non-mafia is a great way to hide)
then you could make the argument that looking closely at those voters instead of anialos is going to be more profitable, because either way, it is going to have mafia, whereas there is a pretty high chance that anialos isn't bad.
Not that Anialos is a bad target, I just don't think that him being mafia or not is going to really change the amount of people on the sega wagon. Though, If he isn't mafia, they might split up between anialos/sega.
Anyway, all that to say it seems like a false dichotomy.
Having read through everything once I still am a little confused about the number of arguments flying around. I really hope there is some kind of village network working behind the scenes on something.
figgy - thanks for the vote analysis, its really useful and something I tell myself I will do then never actually get round to!
I will reread the thread to see if I can see anything.
Even if you pick someone who was playing with the vote and they turn out mafia, that isn't really any strong indicator on the one saved.
As you said yourself, the mafia need to vote and will be in there somewhere, and it makes connections that go one way but not so much the other.
Basically Anialos gives you the much better followup action and confidence if you suspect that mafia were involved at all.
edit: looked at the votes a little closer and yeah maybe there is something with the later push for sega once anialos started to gain some votes
You on the other hand have been very dismissive and condesending today.
I think you are hiding somthing.
Infidel
seems legit
(not really)
Hey everyone, Infidel being rude and condescending means mafia, right?
Right?
From the Desk of Darth Vertroue Diplomat to the USA.
Or are you just going to attack me for doing so?
Just asking.
To th'boys, whatever is left of my estate
Excepting the contents of the medicine cabinet, which I demand are to be burned unopened and unused
I shan't throw another t'my fate
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Commission me at http://tinyurl.com/cv3h2pl
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You maybe on to something here........
If you read the proboards for last phalla I basically asked a couple questions that I could have (and eventually did) answered with more research on my own. Also I was with a group of experienced players that was a bit intimidating. Attributing all that to Laying low = EPIC DUMPSHOCK MAFIA WIN is a bit of a stretch.
As for my voting yesterday...... up until 4pm CST I hadn't seen anything that screamed mafia and keeping in mind that last game the village eat itself, I wasn't willing to just jump on a mid-day bandwagon. After 4pm I was inactive, not plotting your demise on the mafia boards.
I still need to read back over last night and this mornings pages because I've only skimmed them but it looks like no mafia were hit, we lost the vig, and the bandwagons tended to swing. I really don't regret my place holder vote, sorry.
I dont think this has been discussed but I would assume that the guard was on Assuran right? Otherwise wtf!
Having written this post and sounded it out in my head it doesnt seem likely that Personface would have any clue about this as all orders had to be in before the hit was called.
So basically my not very eloquent ramblings are how did our vig die and not get guarded?!
I think Langly and his supporters can be any combination of mafia and not-mafia. And that there is no way to be sure of anyone without a seer or death result.
The part that strikes me as odd is trusting someone so completly at the begining of a game. Each new game means a new RNG and no matter how good of friends you are with someone wont stop them from being on the opposite team as you.
I do that , I'm sexy that way
kisses @Alegis
MUNKUS IS A MADMAN! A MADMAN!!!!!!!!
If you don't want to be rational, sure. Seriously, I've explained how the only reason to rationally follow your logic is that you think Langly is mafia and that he had mafia supporters that you identified that exposed themselves like that. Unless you care to give another sound reasoning that has them be something else.
There is no certainty in phalla? Thank you for clearing that up.
Is that how you can rationalize to yourself in the previous sentence saying "I'm voting for Langly who is either mafia or not-mafia"?
Trust is given and does not rely on or represent perfect knowledge. That is what it means to trust.
mafia is likely keeping 10 foot pole between themselves and all this arguing . And yeah Infidel is always condescending ,relatively speaking, I don't see what the great revelation is there.
For real, just got unhungover enough to follow along. I definitely like figgy's stuff there. Still thinking today will be a trainwreck.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the SeGaTai wagon have a larger margin to begin with? While looking at the 2nd wave of it might have merit, you also might want to consider people who were active but declined to support the competing analios wagon (if he turns out to be mafia). Like, did anyone switch off from either of those 2 to the WTF figgy wagon?
Personface actually did die, munkus made a mistake and the narration fluff originally really wasn't clear about that fact. And Well... the 2nd mafia kill did seem to be blocked, so that's something?
From the Desk of Darth Vertroue Diplomat to the USA.
You won't, don't worry.
By that I mean, you'll die before you have to worry about it.
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