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[Presidential Election Thread] All Hail the Liberty Rooster.

2456797

Posts

  • Salvation122Salvation122 Registered User regular
    mcdermott wrote: »
    mcdermott wrote: »
    I don't think it's so much overestimation of Romney but an underestimation of Obama. A lot of people are pretty jaded about the guy by now. I don't think anybody is thinking Mittens will win, but there's a lot of concern than Obama could lose.

    But as Ender points out, you've got a guy that simultaneously alienates the religious base (despite trying to fit in), alienates the super-conservative wing, may or may not alienate the moderate wing, and fails the "drink a beer with" test. This is a guy that Republicans, on the whole, don't trust to uphold their spiritual values, enact their policies, or just be a likable human being. He fails on every front.

    It's still possible that fear of Obama will be enough to get the vote out for him, though.

    Look at the map. I cannot find the electoral votes, the way the polls are going.

    Been a while since I looked at state-by-state matchups of Romney versus Obama. And by "a while" I mean never ever. Because we're like seven months out, so I haven't bothered yet.

    I agree, though, that even assuming a (more) solid south this time around he's got a rough path. And that's not even a safe assumption. The only reason I still worry is that a lot can change, number-wise, between now and November and our system operates on swing states. Or, put another way, on a few coin flips that take place in what are largely our craziest backwaters. Sorry, Ohio...an...ites. Sure, he'll have to win several such coin flips, but it could still happen. Now, if come October or so Texas is polling for Obama, then maybe I'll sit back and chillax, and crack some premature victory champagne.

    I also know that Romney may have enough trouble holding traditionally red states that he may well wind up on the receiving end of a Mondaling. Or at least something approaching one.

    Nah, it won't be close to Mondale or McGovern or anything. He'll still pull the entire Dixie south save Florida and North Carolina, as well as large chunks of flyover country. But he'll lose Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, and New Mexico, and that's pretty much that unless Jersey or something bizarrely flips Red.

    Edit: I think final outcomes look something like this, with Virginia maybe up for grabs.

    Virginia's a blowout at the moment. This is the map I expect, while being totally honest. This is the map I hope for.

    I applaud your optimism but there's no way in hell Arizona or Georgia are going to flip blue

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  • The EnderThe Ender Registered User regular
    mcdermott wrote: »
    mcdermott wrote: »
    I don't think it's so much overestimation of Romney but an underestimation of Obama. A lot of people are pretty jaded about the guy by now. I don't think anybody is thinking Mittens will win, but there's a lot of concern than Obama could lose.

    But as Ender points out, you've got a guy that simultaneously alienates the religious base (despite trying to fit in), alienates the super-conservative wing, may or may not alienate the moderate wing, and fails the "drink a beer with" test. This is a guy that Republicans, on the whole, don't trust to uphold their spiritual values, enact their policies, or just be a likable human being. He fails on every front.

    It's still possible that fear of Obama will be enough to get the vote out for him, though.

    Look at the map. I cannot find the electoral votes, the way the polls are going.

    Been a while since I looked at state-by-state matchups of Romney versus Obama. And by "a while" I mean never ever. Because we're like seven months out, so I haven't bothered yet.

    I agree, though, that even assuming a (more) solid south this time around he's got a rough path. And that's not even a safe assumption. The only reason I still worry is that a lot can change, number-wise, between now and November and our system operates on swing states. Or, put another way, on a few coin flips that take place in what are largely our craziest backwaters. Sorry, Ohio...an...ites. Sure, he'll have to win several such coin flips, but it could still happen. Now, if come October or so Texas is polling for Obama, then maybe I'll sit back and chillax, and crack some premature victory champagne.

    I also know that Romney may have enough trouble holding traditionally red states that he may well wind up on the receiving end of a Mondaling. Or at least something approaching one.

    Nah, it won't be close to Mondale or McGovern or anything. He'll still pull the entire Dixie south save Florida and North Carolina, as well as large chunks of flyover country. But he'll lose Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, and New Mexico, and that's pretty much that unless Jersey or something bizarrely flips Red.

    Edit: I think final outcomes look something like this, with Virginia maybe up for grabs.

    Virginia's a blowout at the moment. This is the map I expect, while being totally honest. This is the map I hope for.

    I applaud your optimism but there's no way in hell Arizona or Georgia are going to flip blue

    Not Arizona, but I could see Georgia flipping depending on Mittens's running mate. Georgia's a state that's really sensitive to the evangelical vote, which Mittens would need his VP pick to capture.

    Yes, I am still angry
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Depends who shows up. Georgia was pretty close four years ago. If Latinos are still allowed in the state by November, Arizona could be interesting.

    My cousin made this game: Gem Pop. It's legitimately fun, particularly for people who enjoy Bejewled, Dr. Mario, Tetris, etc. kinds of games. Only two bucks! If you try it out, PM me with what you think of it.
  • Form of Monkey!Form of Monkey! Registered User regular
    I thought "Wait a minute, wins the primaries? Romney doesn't have the 1144 delegates he needs yet!" all incredulous-like.

    Then I clicked on the delegate tracker in the OP and saw his giant head push him past the finish line. Ah, of course!

  • The EnderThe Ender Registered User regular
    I like how Perry is wearing The People's Eyebrow.

    Yes, I am still angry
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    I should say that's like a best case scenario (actually he wins the Dakotas in the absolute best case version... and South Carolina).

    My cousin made this game: Gem Pop. It's legitimately fun, particularly for people who enjoy Bejewled, Dr. Mario, Tetris, etc. kinds of games. Only two bucks! If you try it out, PM me with what you think of it.
  • The EnderThe Ender Registered User regular
    I should say that's like a best case scenario (actually he wins the Dakotas in the absolute best case version... and South Carolina).

    Isn't the best case scenario the one where Obama sweeps the board and then immediately passes a resolution to send the Republican party to Mars by 2014, come Hell or high water?


    But don't worry: the government only covers the cost of a one-way trip. Getting them back home is a matter for the wonders of private industry to solve!

    Compromise!

    The Ender on
    Yes, I am still angry
  • GoslingGosling Team Monica Watertown, WIRegistered User regular
    I said a long time back, the Tea Party is getting the VP slot no matter what. Romney has to do it to keep the Tea Party halfway engaged; the Tea Party candidates wouldn't be interested at all in ticket balance.

    So I'd look in that direction.

    I'm trying, through my blog, to break into the journalism industry. Any eyes and ears that pick up on any leads towards that end are greatly appreciated. PM me if you happen to hear anything.
  • override367override367 Registered User regular
    Pick Palin pick Palin pick Palin pick Palin pick Palin

  • Salvation122Salvation122 Registered User regular
    Gosling wrote: »
    I said a long time back, the Tea Party is getting the VP slot no matter what. Romney has to do it to keep the Tea Party halfway engaged; the Tea Party candidates wouldn't be interested at all in ticket balance.

    So I'd look in that direction.

    Additionally, you want someone from Dixie/Texas.

    Honestly no one springs to mind.

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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    The Ender wrote: »
    I should say that's like a best case scenario (actually he wins the Dakotas in the absolute best case version... and South Carolina).

    Isn't the best case scenario the one where Obama sweeps the board and then immediately passes a resolution to send the Republican party to Mars by 2014, come Hell or high water?


    But don't worry: the government only covers the cost of a one-way trip. Getting them back home is a matter for the wonders of private industry to solve!

    Compromise!

    That's change we can all believe in!

    I'm inclined to say VA is probably a safe state this time around thanks to McDonnel, the VA legislator, Allen, demographic trends, the GOP's insanity and the VA primary.

    McDonnel/VA Legislator-A fair chunk of the VA population didn't like the emphasis on social issues this year. Also given that it was voter apathy that let the current VA legislator come into power, I seriously doubt as many voters will be inclined to say "fuck it, they're all the same," it's going to be more along the lines of "do not want and I don't care how many people show up to vote, I'm going to improve the chances that the GOP doesn't make any gains. Doesn't help that McDonnel endorsed him either and wanted to be his VP.

    Allen - He was a shitty governor and he's going up against a governor that was well liked. In fact, Kaine could help to hurt Romney since he could bring in a few votes for Obama, that Obama wouldn't be able to get himself. Where Allen will further encourage some potential GOP votes to boycott the election, while driving some swing voters over to the Obama camp. Also people are going to realize that Allen was the state leader for the assholes that made the state a laughing stock this year over their social regression.

    Demographic wise VA has been trending towards blue and that trend hasn't seemed to change. Hell, the recession might have allowed it to pick up some steam since the job market in VA is better than the national average.

    GOP alienating people who aren't wealthy, white, male and Christian pretty much ensures that a number of potential votes will either go to Obama or just not vote for anyone. I suspect most will go towards Obama because it's going to be either him or Romany, might as well go with the guy that doesn't belong to the party that's trying to fuck you over.

    There are already a number of VA republicans that won't vote this fall because they felt that the establishment kept their guy off the ticket and ergo the GOP candidate isn't exactly a legitimate candidate.

    Hell, might be able to include Cantor in the list of reasons why VA goes for Obama again in the fall. We'll just have to see how he fairs in his congressional election but it looks like whichever Democrat takes the party nomination to run against him will kindly point out that he told his district to fuck off after getting hit with both a 5.8 earthquake and two tropical systems. Sure it was catastrophic damage by any means but it was a sizable amount of damage that cost people money in a time when they didn't have money to spare. I'm not holding my breath, but with a shitty Presidential candidate and Senate candidate already, if Cantor's opponent can play the see this party doesn't give a fuck about your plight, they just want power and even if you give it to them, they'll still fuck you over. Then while they might not be able to unseat Cantor, it might get the ball rolling on hampering GOP support since people will either start voting Democrat or staying home.

  • jimbo034jimbo034 Registered User regular
    Is a Chris Christie VP nomination still conceivable? He seems like the best band-aid for the gaping hole that is Mitt's charisma.

    Alan West sounds like fun though.

    We're growing into a post-scarcity economy?

    I hadn't noticed the build a dyson sphere around the sun component of the stimulus package.
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Torturer for VP! Woooooooo

    And the fact that Chris Christie passes for charismatic says a lot about the GOP.
    Spoiler:

    My cousin made this game: Gem Pop. It's legitimately fun, particularly for people who enjoy Bejewled, Dr. Mario, Tetris, etc. kinds of games. Only two bucks! If you try it out, PM me with what you think of it.
  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Ooh, the very first topic I posted about on these forums! :D

    Meanwhile, at Stately On Topic Manor, did Romney sweep the primaries last night?

  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    He did.

    My cousin made this game: Gem Pop. It's legitimately fun, particularly for people who enjoy Bejewled, Dr. Mario, Tetris, etc. kinds of games. Only two bucks! If you try it out, PM me with what you think of it.
  • GoslingGosling Team Monica Watertown, WIRegistered User regular
    Gosling wrote: »
    I said a long time back, the Tea Party is getting the VP slot no matter what. Romney has to do it to keep the Tea Party halfway engaged; the Tea Party candidates wouldn't be interested at all in ticket balance.

    So I'd look in that direction.

    Additionally, you want someone from Dixie/Texas.

    Honestly no one springs to mind.

    Well, it can't be anyone Romney's already defeated. The field's already considered weak as it is. So Rick Perry's out of luck, as is Gingrich.

    Considering Romney's going to be counted as Massachusetts-based for election purposes, the Northeast is probably out of play (and Massachusetts prohibited by way of Constitution, meaning no Scott Brown)- Christie's out; New Jersey doesn't balance Massachusetts. The state's November prospects tend to not get taken much into account; just where on the map it sits. Cheney was from Wyoming balancing Texas, Lieberman from Connecticut balancing Tennessee, Biden from Delaware balancing Illinois, Palin from Alaska balancing Arizona, Edwards from North Carolina balancing Massachusetts, Jack Kemp from New York balancing Kansas.

    Romney is also not going to want to be surprised. Not after Palin. He's going to want to know exactly who it is he's taking with him.

    Red meat, not from the northeast, known quantity, hasn't seen action in the race yet. Probably someone to help humanize Romney. Start from there.

    I'm trying, through my blog, to break into the journalism industry. Any eyes and ears that pick up on any leads towards that end are greatly appreciated. PM me if you happen to hear anything.
  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    Gosling wrote: »
    Probably someone to help humanize Romney. Start from there.

    So John Connor?

    mvrck.png
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  • V1mV1m Registered User regular
    So... Ted Nugent?

  • MyDcmbrMyDcmbr Registered User regular
    I still think Marco Rubio, but I will give him enough credit to say that he isn't stupid enough to get a VP slot that is doomed to failure when he can run for the big chair himself in '16.

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  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    He did.

    I was more shocked that the sun rose this morning. To a filthy socialist this looks like the least enthusiastic inevitable thing ever.

  • Kipling217Kipling217 Registered User regular
    I said it in the last thread and I'll say it in this thread:

    Marco Rubio for VP.

    He is a Teapper, Latino(the good kind according to GOP), young(relatively speaking) and compared to Romney he is charismatic. Becoming the "good" part of a failing ticket is good groundwork for 2016. Allowing him to raise his profile against other contenders without lifting a finger.

    Communicating from the last of the Babylon Stations.
  • shrykeshryke Registered User regular
    Torturer for VP! Woooooooo

    And the fact that Chris Christie passes for charismatic says a lot about the GOP.
    Spoiler:

    He's also apparently a nice prime ALEC shill.

  • Boring7Boring7 Registered User regular
    Gosling wrote: »
    Gosling wrote: »
    I said a long time back, the Tea Party is getting the VP slot no matter what. Romney has to do it to keep the Tea Party halfway engaged; the Tea Party candidates wouldn't be interested at all in ticket balance.

    So I'd look in that direction.

    Additionally, you want someone from Dixie/Texas.

    Honestly no one springs to mind.

    Well, it can't be anyone Romney's already defeated. The field's already considered weak as it is. So Rick Perry's out of luck, as is Gingrich.

    Considering Romney's going to be counted as Massachusetts-based for election purposes, the Northeast is probably out of play (and Massachusetts prohibited by way of Constitution, meaning no Scott Brown)- Christie's out; New Jersey doesn't balance Massachusetts. The state's November prospects tend to not get taken much into account; just where on the map it sits. Cheney was from Wyoming balancing Texas, Lieberman from Connecticut balancing Tennessee, Biden from Delaware balancing Illinois, Palin from Alaska balancing Arizona, Edwards from North Carolina balancing Massachusetts, Jack Kemp from New York balancing Kansas.

    Romney is also not going to want to be surprised. Not after Palin. He's going to want to know exactly who it is he's taking with him.

    Red meat, not from the northeast, known quantity, hasn't seen action in the race yet. Probably someone to help humanize Romney. Start from there.

    Allen West was mentioned last thread, he is friends with bikers, keynote speaker at CPAC 2011, has a manly "war story" of torturing (bad) information out of an Iraqi, from Florida, and he's the Teabaggers' "black friendcandidate". Only thing missing is him giving a blowjob to jesus, but that can be fixed if you pray loudly enough and accuse enough other folk of witchcraft.

    BUT, he isn't exactly a known quantity. His last controversy involved him "pulling rank" and claiming his proof of innocence was classified. His campaign spawned (?) the term, "if ballots don't work bullets will."

    I don't know, I'd put my money on Jan Brewer if I had to make a bet. She's got problems, but I can already see 3 different campaign narratives built off of her. Both she and Romney are "experienced executives" (because Obama's 4 years as president don't count), Jan Brewer "stood up to Obama" by being rude at the airport for no damn reason, and she's a vagina-american, which is superior to african-american whenever they decide it is.

    Boring7 on
    Thanatos wrote: »
    Goldman Sachs may as well be named COBRA.
  • The EnderThe Ender Registered User regular
    Kipling217 wrote: »
    I said it in the last thread and I'll say it in this thread:

    Marco Rubio for VP.

    He is a Teapper, Latino(the good kind according to GOP), young(relatively speaking) and compared to Romney he is charismatic. Becoming the "good" part of a failing ticket is good groundwork for 2016. Allowing him to raise his profile against other contenders without lifting a finger.

    The most important thing for Romney's VP pick would be their ability to get 'caught' in this sort of candid photo:

    bill-clinton-bible-e1276083959253.jpg?w=500

    ...I can't find the exact photo that some people say caused Clinton to suddenly surge against Bush, but this'll do just as well.

    Yes, I am still angry
  • MyDcmbrMyDcmbr Registered User regular
    clinton-sax-e1323923232991.jpg

    I bet that had more effect on the outcome of the election.

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  • The EnderThe Ender Registered User regular
    MyDcmbr wrote: »
    Spoiler:

    I bet that had more effect on the outcome of the election.

    I was referring to the iconic image of Clinton walking away from a church with a Bible in one hand (I don't recall whether or not he was waving it at the camera).

    Apparently, after that photo went into wide circulation, Clinton captured a significant portion of the evangelical vote.

    The Ender on
    Yes, I am still angry
  • nightmarennynightmarenny Registered User regular
    The Ender wrote: »
    MyDcmbr wrote: »
    Spoiler:

    I bet that had more effect on the outcome of the election.

    I was referring to the iconic image of Clinton walking away from a church with a Bible in one hand (I don't recall whether or not he was waving it at the camera).

    Apparently, after that photo went into wide circulation, Clinton captured a significant portion of the evangelical vote.

    My kingdom for a time when evangelists believed democrats could be Christians.

  • DelzhandDelzhand motivated battle programmerRegistered User regular
    The Ender wrote: »
    Deebaser wrote: »
    Guys, this isn't a lock. Romney could actually win.
    /shudder

    Nope.avi

    I hope you're prepared to hear for the next 7 months how close the race is, every day, any time you turn on your TV or visit a US news site.

    9KKPPQw.png
  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    The media will also try to make it a close race, either out of sheer stupidity and the instinct for stupid people to find false equivalence and middle ground between flat-earthers and sphere-earthers, but also because that is more profitable for them.

    Anyway, it would be very nice if Romney didn't get 1114 without the unpledged or whatever they are called.

    White boy issues ↑
  • CantidoCantido Registered User regular
    Delzhand wrote: »
    The Ender wrote: »
    Deebaser wrote: »
    Guys, this isn't a lock. Romney could actually win.
    /shudder

    Nope.avi

    I hope you're prepared to hear for the next 7 months how close the race is, every day, any time you turn on your TV or visit a US news site.

    You know what? I'm not prepared. I'm not D:

    The sound of eight hooves reaches his ears, comes from the heavenly light, two wolves howls fills his heart with fear, and he sees two ravens fly. Down from the sky a warlord rides, like fire his one eye glows, and just before the preacher dies he knows his god is false.
  • KalTorakKalTorak Registered User regular
    Cantido wrote: »
    Delzhand wrote: »
    The Ender wrote: »
    Deebaser wrote: »
    Guys, this isn't a lock. Romney could actually win.
    /shudder

    Nope.avi

    I hope you're prepared to hear for the next 7 months how close the race is, every day, any time you turn on your TV or visit a US news site.

    You know what? I'm not prepared. I'm not D:
    Spoiler:

    ...
    Spoiler:

  • ForarForar Registered User regular
    Personally I've been watching Indecision 2012 with rapt attention.

    ... though I think it's been running for the past year or so.

    dbrock270 wrote: »
    You know, if Obama wins, I will never make another political prediction on these boards for the rest of my life.
    Steam: Forar Origin: Forar80 B.Net: Forar#1391
  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    I'm not prepared for months more election coverage. Just the thought of it - and the sheer stupidity that it will contain and generate - is depressing as hell.

    That being said, I'd prefer "This is a close race!" over "Obama's going to win in a landslide!". The former will bring Dems to the polls, the latter will not. (of course, it can bring the GOP to the polls as well, hopefully they will still not be happy with Romney come November)

    camo_sig2.png
  • AtomikaAtomika (citation needed)Registered User regular
    So It Goes wrote: »
    Nor did his wife.

    Yeah, she was really awful.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    I hope that Romney reaches into the succesful past of the Republican party and selects George Bush the Lesser as VP ;) Or Dick Cheney. Can ex-presidents even be VP? It would be excellent if his choice of running mate could also create a constitutional crisis :)

    Your puny weapons are useless against me
  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    Tomanta wrote: »
    I'm not prepared for months more election coverage. Just the thought of it - and the sheer stupidity that it will contain and generate - is depressing as hell.

    That being said, I'd prefer "This is a close race!" over "Obama's going to win in a landslide!". The former will bring Dems to the polls, the latter will not. (of course, it can bring the GOP to the polls as well, hopefully they will still not be happy with Romney come November)

    Oh they'll vote for Romney. But, they might not be so prone to campaign for and donate to him. That's the thing - you can always assume a whole bunch of votes, but the trick is to get the certain voters to create more voters for you, at least from what I can see.

    The senate and the house is what I am more worried about. Even if Obama has some good coattails it won't be easy.

    Absalon on
    White boy issues ↑
  • AtomikaAtomika (citation needed)Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    I hope that Romney reaches into the succesful past of the Republican party and selects George Bush the Lesser as VP ;) Or Dick Cheney. Can ex-presidents even be VP? It would be excellent if his choice of running mate could also create a constitutional crisis :)

    In the case of Bush 1, I'm not entirely sure, but I think he could potentially be vice-president, but in the event of succession, he could only be president for no greater than 4 years.

    I don't think that, if something happened and he had to finish Romney's first term in office, he could run for a second term.

  • DexterBelgiumDexterBelgium Registered User regular
    So It Goes wrote: »
    Nor did his wife.

    Yeah, she was really awful.
    She may also have been Romneybot 0.95beta. I've not seen any compelling evidence to the contrary, tbh.

  • AtomikaAtomika (citation needed)Registered User regular
    So It Goes wrote: »
    Nor did his wife.

    Yeah, she was really awful.
    She may also have been Romneybot 0.95beta. I've not seen any compelling evidence to the contrary, tbh.

    At least Romney cack-handedly tries to engage with the "common man."

    Teresa Heinz treated the common man like they were Kyle Reese.

  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    I should say that's like a best case scenario (actually he wins the Dakotas in the absolute best case version... and South Carolina).

    I'd argue we don't know a true best case scenario yet. 6+ months out, its not inconceivable that he wins the entire east coast, the Dakotas and Montana, Missouri, Arizona, hold Indiana.... its just highly unlikely that Obama will get 420 EV. We've mostly been assuming Obama will not perform as well as 08 since there's no Bush to compare him too. But Romney is just as milquetoast and Obama is now the incumbent, which is often really big in driving votes. Every President who has been elected to two(or more) terms in the last 100 years (Wilson qualifies but mostly because his first election was a true 3 way contest) has won by more the second time.

    11793-1.png
    Spoiler:
This discussion has been closed.