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[Presidential Election Thread] All Hail the Liberty Rooster.

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Posts

  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    KalTorak wrote: »
    There was a NYT article a couple days ago about how Obama's organization was trying to make a play in Arizona.

    Arizona


    little heavy on the "hope" there guys

    Any southern state that has a heavy Latino population would be worth making a play for, whether there is a realistic chance of winning or not. Just because you can't win this time doesn't mean it won't be competitive a couple of elections from now.

    camo_sig2.png
  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Harrisonburg, VARegistered User regular
    Pi-r8 wrote: »
    I think this election is going to see a lot more swing states on both sides. Not only Florida and Ohio, but also New Hampshire, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, maybe even Texas could all be in play.

    With the exception of NH/WI/PA/TX last cycle, and Texas in general, all of these states have been contested in the last decade. These are not new swing states.

  • DrakeonDrakeon Registered User regular
    KalTorak wrote: »
    There was a NYT article a couple days ago about how Obama's organization was trying to make a play in Arizona.

    Arizona


    little heavy on the "hope" there guys

    Maybe they are banking on how crazy Arizona is. Maybe in some kind of statewide psychotic bender they'll all vote Obama if you give them proper conditioning.

    Wasn't there governor a Dem before obama tapped her to be head of the dhs?

    PSN: Drakieon XBL: Drakieon Steam: TheDrakeon
  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Harrisonburg, VARegistered User regular
  • KalTorakKalTorak Registered User regular
    Yeah, I guess I shouldn't say they shouldn't try.


    I'd just really like to saw out Arizona, Bugs Bunny style, and push it out to sea.

  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    There's also the hope that if the Latino's all go out and vote, it will be enough to possibly swing a lot of the downballot races. Any help he can get in congress for two years is a huge deal. Even if you don't win the electoral votes, if it puts another Dem or two into Congress on some level, that's probably a win.

    mvrck.png
  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Harrisonburg, VARegistered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    I cant imagine Texas being in play, honestly. If it is that says some pretty dire things.

    Texas is not in play.

    Too early to tell. Has anyone even polled it?

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Just making Romney compete in more states is a win.

  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    I cant imagine Texas being in play, honestly. If it is that says some pretty dire things.

    Texas is not in play.

  • dbrock270dbrock270 Registered User regular
    KalTorak wrote: »
    Yeah, I guess I shouldn't say they shouldn't try.


    I'd just really like to saw out Arizona, Bugs Bunny style, and push it out to sea.

    Or just kick out Brewer.

  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    edited April 2012
    spool32 wrote: »
    I cant imagine Texas being in play, honestly. If it is that says some pretty dire things.

    Texas is not in play.

    Too early to tell. Has anyone even polled it?
    from RCP
    PPP (D) 1/12 - 1/15 700 RV 49 42 Romney +7
    PPP (D) 9/15 - 9/18 569 RV 47 41 Romney +6
    PPP (D) 6/25 - 6/27 795 RV 50 42 Romney +8
    PPP (D) 1/14 - 1/16 892 RV 49 42 Romney +7
    In other words, Romney's lead is about the same as Obama's in Ohio.
    Rasmussen Reports 3/26 - 3/26 500 LV 48 40 Obama +8
    Quinnipiac 3/20 - 3/26 1246 RV 47 41 Obama +6
    NBC News/Marist 2/29 - 3/2 1573 RV 50 38 Obama +12

    PantsB on
    11793-1.png
    Spoiler:
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited April 2012
    Texas is still 4-12 years away. Depending on Voter ID laws.

    Anyway, if you do the math and have the Latino vote in Arizona go like it did nationally and grow to their expected proportion this year, suddenly you're within the margin of error. And that's without the impressive Obama field operation really contesting the state or having a primary or anything like that.

    enlightenedbum on
    Lose: to suffer defeat, to misplace (Ex: "I hope I don't lose the match." "Did you lose your phone again?")
    Loose: about to slip, to release (Ex: "That knot is loose." "Loose arrows.")
  • chrisnlchrisnl Registered User regular
    As much as I wish the state where I grew up (Texas) would be in play, I am pretty certain that they won't be. Not to say that Democrats can't win some seats there, but their electoral votes are probably still solidly Republican at this point.

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  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    I cant imagine Texas being in play, honestly. If it is that says some pretty dire things.

    Texas is not in play.

    Too early to tell. Has anyone even polled it?
    from RCP
    PPP (D) 1/12 - 1/15 700 RV 49 42 Romney +7
    PPP (D) 9/15 - 9/18 569 RV 47 41 Romney +6
    PPP (D) 6/25 - 6/27 795 RV 50 42 Romney +8
    PPP (D) 1/14 - 1/16 892 RV 49 42 Romney +7
    In other words, Romney's lead is about the same as Obama's in Ohio.
    Rasmussen Reports 3/26 - 3/26 500 LV 48 40 Obama +8
    Quinnipiac 3/20 - 3/26 1246 RV 47 41 Obama +6
    NBC News/Marist 2/29 - 3/2 1573 RV 50 38 Obama +12

    Except that while people who vote in Ohio have a reason to vote for Obama, they don't in Texas, unless the latino vote can actually be motivated much more than I imagine that it will be.

    Lh96QHG.png
  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Harrisonburg, VARegistered User regular
    Texas is still 4-12 years away. Depending on Voter ID laws.

    Anyway, if you do the math and have the Latino vote in Arizona go like it did nationally and grow to their expected proportion this year, suddenly you're within the margin of error. And that's without the impressive Obama field operation really contesting the state or having a primary or anything like that.
    Well, they are trying there this year, so there's that.

  • BurtletoyBurtletoy Registered User regular
    The Obama +20 women vote thing should also help in Arizona.

    Well, everywhere, but you get my point.

  • chrisnlchrisnl Registered User regular
    While I'm enjoying Obama having a double digit advantage amongst women voters, it's going to take continual Republican screwups to not close that gap at least a little. As mad as many women are right now at the Republican party in general, the GOP does have a good history of swaying opinions regardless of the facts of the matter. So, barring more disastrous statements and policies coming to light, I could see that number being whittled into the mid single digits before the election.

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    FFXIV - Ruby Heliconia
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited April 2012
    So the Democrats are actually doing something smart in terms of political tactics. Who knew?

    They're introducing a bill to allow stay at home mom's to call stay at home mothering count as work activity for the purposes of TANF. The GOP can put their money where their mouth is, Hillary Rosen wise, or they can do what we'd all expect them to do and tell poor women to fuck right off.

    EDIT: It's worth nothing they should have done this in '09 anyway. That's good policy.

    enlightenedbum on
    Lose: to suffer defeat, to misplace (Ex: "I hope I don't lose the match." "Did you lose your phone again?")
    Loose: about to slip, to release (Ex: "That knot is loose." "Loose arrows.")
  • TheCanManTheCanMan Registered User regular
    So the Democrats are actually doing something smart in terms of political tactics. Who knew?

    They're introducing a bill to allow stay at home mom's to call stat at home mothering count as work activity for the purposes of TANF. The GOP can put their money where their mouth is, Hillary Rosen wise, or they can do what we'd all expect them to do and tell poor women to fuck right off.

    Hilarious.

  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    So the Democrats are actually doing something smart in terms of political tactics. Who knew?

    They're introducing a bill to allow stay at home mom's to call stat at home mothering count as work activity for the purposes of TANF. The GOP can put their money where their mouth is, Hillary Rosen wise, or they can do what we'd all expect them to do and tell poor women to fuck right off.

    The response will include some or all of the following:

    1.) Welfare Queens
    2.) Anchor Babies
    3.) Dignity of Work

    Lh96QHG.png
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    @Spool32

    I might have missed it, but who were some of your picks for the Veep slot?

    Lh96QHG.png
  • CommunistCowCommunistCow Registered User regular
    KalTorak wrote: »
    There was a NYT article a couple days ago about how Obama's organization was trying to make a play in Arizona.

    Arizona


    little heavy on the "hope" there guys

    If they have the money for it, I say keep up the 50 state strategy. New Mexico has either been really razor close or has gone blue the last few presidential elections. Arizona has a sorta-kinda-close-ish set of demographics as NM. New Mexico is 45% Hispanic and Arizona is 29% Hispanic. Even with massive voter disenfranchisement I would expect more latinos to come out and vote against the GOP this time. Hell, McCain only won the state by 8% and its his own state. Even if Obama doesn't win it I would imagine they could get that to within 2-3% and would be more in play the next go round.

    No, I am not really communist. Yes, it is weird that I use this name.
  • SuperdupeSuperdupe Registered User regular
    Texas went to McCain by 13 points in 2008, and by 20ish to Bush in 2004. It is trending downward as a Republican stronghold, but it will probably be two more election cycles before it's truly in play.

    I wonder if Georgia will actually be in play this year. I remember in 2008 it didn't get much focus from the Obama ground game but ended up being fairly close (4-5 points I think). A concerted effort could flip it as soon as this cycle.

    steam_sig.png
  • rhylithrhylith Registered User regular
    So the Democrats are actually doing something smart in terms of political tactics. Who knew?

    They're introducing a bill to allow stay at home mom's to call stay at home mothering count as work activity for the purposes of TANF. The GOP can put their money where their mouth is, Hillary Rosen wise, or they can do what we'd all expect them to do and tell poor women to fuck right off.

    Amazing.

    Rhylith - <Shambler Milk> Horde Chogall
    League/XBL: Amalockh
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    KalTorak wrote: »
    There was a NYT article a couple days ago about how Obama's organization was trying to make a play in Arizona.

    Arizona


    little heavy on the "hope" there guys

    If they have the money for it, I say keep up the 50 state strategy. New Mexico has either been really razor close or has gone blue the last few presidential elections. Arizona has a sorta-kinda-close-ish set of demographics as NM. New Mexico is 45% Hispanic and Arizona is 29% Hispanic. Even with massive voter disenfranchisement I would expect more latinos to come out and vote against the GOP this time. Hell, McCain only won the state by 8% and its his own state. Even if Obama doesn't win it I would imagine they could get that to within 2-3% and would be more in play the next go round.

    More Mormons in Arizona (think it's second to Utah) and they're conservative plus obviously Mitt. But yeah, if you can make the GOP defend Arizona, you've basically won.

    Lose: to suffer defeat, to misplace (Ex: "I hope I don't lose the match." "Did you lose your phone again?")
    Loose: about to slip, to release (Ex: "That knot is loose." "Loose arrows.")
  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    Of course they'll tell women to fuck off. Its Welfare Queens and Obama.
    Superdupe wrote: »
    Texas went to McCain by 13 points in 2008, and by 20ish to Bush in 2004. It is trending downward as a Republican stronghold, but it will probably be two more election cycles before it's truly in play.

    I wonder if Georgia will actually be in play this year. I remember in 2008 it didn't get much focus from the Obama ground game but ended up being fairly close (4-5 points I think). A concerted effort could flip it as soon as this cycle.

    Georgia did actually get some attention as a sleeper much like Indiana did. Its just Indiana actually did flip while Georgia actually was slightly more McCain-ish than polls suggested.

    11793-1.png
    Spoiler:
  • CommunistCowCommunistCow Registered User regular
    edited April 2012
    KalTorak wrote: »
    There was a NYT article a couple days ago about how Obama's organization was trying to make a play in Arizona.

    Arizona


    little heavy on the "hope" there guys

    If they have the money for it, I say keep up the 50 state strategy. New Mexico has either been really razor close or has gone blue the last few presidential elections. Arizona has a sorta-kinda-close-ish set of demographics as NM. New Mexico is 45% Hispanic and Arizona is 29% Hispanic. Even with massive voter disenfranchisement I would expect more latinos to come out and vote against the GOP this time. Hell, McCain only won the state by 8% and its his own state. Even if Obama doesn't win it I would imagine they could get that to within 2-3% and would be more in play the next go round.

    More Mormons in Arizona (think it's second to Utah) and they're conservative plus obviously Mitt. But yeah, if you can make the GOP defend Arizona, you've basically won.

    Ah, didn't know that part about the Mormons. That will certainly make it harder.

    CommunistCow on
    No, I am not really communist. Yes, it is weird that I use this name.
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    KalTorak wrote: »
    There was a NYT article a couple days ago about how Obama's organization was trying to make a play in Arizona.

    Arizona


    little heavy on the "hope" there guys

    If they have the money for it, I say keep up the 50 state strategy. New Mexico has either been really razor close or has gone blue the last few presidential elections. Arizona has a sorta-kinda-close-ish set of demographics as NM. New Mexico is 45% Hispanic and Arizona is 29% Hispanic. Even with massive voter disenfranchisement I would expect more latinos to come out and vote against the GOP this time. Hell, McCain only won the state by 8% and its his own state. Even if Obama doesn't win it I would imagine they could get that to within 2-3% and would be more in play the next go round.

    Keep up? More like create one. And fuck yes do they need that.

    Lh96QHG.png
  • CommunistCowCommunistCow Registered User regular
    KalTorak wrote: »
    There was a NYT article a couple days ago about how Obama's organization was trying to make a play in Arizona.

    Arizona


    little heavy on the "hope" there guys

    If they have the money for it, I say keep up the 50 state strategy. New Mexico has either been really razor close or has gone blue the last few presidential elections. Arizona has a sorta-kinda-close-ish set of demographics as NM. New Mexico is 45% Hispanic and Arizona is 29% Hispanic. Even with massive voter disenfranchisement I would expect more latinos to come out and vote against the GOP this time. Hell, McCain only won the state by 8% and its his own state. Even if Obama doesn't win it I would imagine they could get that to within 2-3% and would be more in play the next go round.

    Keep up? More like create one. And fuck yes do they need that.

    The '08 Obama campaign had a pretty good presence even in deep red states.

    No, I am not really communist. Yes, it is weird that I use this name.
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    KalTorak wrote: »
    There was a NYT article a couple days ago about how Obama's organization was trying to make a play in Arizona.

    Arizona


    little heavy on the "hope" there guys

    If they have the money for it, I say keep up the 50 state strategy. New Mexico has either been really razor close or has gone blue the last few presidential elections. Arizona has a sorta-kinda-close-ish set of demographics as NM. New Mexico is 45% Hispanic and Arizona is 29% Hispanic. Even with massive voter disenfranchisement I would expect more latinos to come out and vote against the GOP this time. Hell, McCain only won the state by 8% and its his own state. Even if Obama doesn't win it I would imagine they could get that to within 2-3% and would be more in play the next go round.

    Keep up? More like create one. And fuck yes do they need that.

    The '08 Obama campaign had a pretty good presence even in deep red states.

    Fair enough.

    I do remember a smarmy gay couple that opened an Obama HQ in an ice cream shop in my hometown.

    They were really stuck up and kept talking about how they moved here from California so their vote would count more.

    Lh96QHG.png
  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    @Spool32

    I might have missed it, but who were some of your picks for the Veep slot?

    I'm so clueless right now. I think Rubio is high on the list but I'd rather he stay a Senator for at least one full term. Pawlenty would be on my list. Condi Rice as well, though I know she wouldn't accept it. Ryan is a great communicator, as much as you guys have a hate on for him I think his budget is a marginally decent starting point, assuming it gets pulled to the left in negotiations, and I think he'd take Biden to the woodshed. I also think the establishment wants him where he is, and he won't get chosen.

    I think Christie isn't on the list because he highlights the things Romney is bad at, rather than complementing him. They should be looking for somebody calm, articulate, and businesslike.

  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    -Spool32

    I might have missed it, but who were some of your picks for the Veep slot?

    I'm so clueless right now. I think Rubio is high on the list but I'd rather he stay a Senator for at least one full term. Pawlenty would be on my list. Condi Rice as well, though I know she wouldn't accept it. Ryan is a great communicator, as much as you guys have a hate on for him I think his budget is a marginally decent starting point, assuming it gets pulled to the left in negotiations, and I think he'd take Biden to the woodshed. I also think the establishment wants him where he is, and he won't get chosen.

    I think Christie isn't on the list because he highlights the things Romney is bad at, rather than complementing him. They should be looking for somebody calm, articulate, and businesslike.

    Rubio won't get it, he's a freshmen senator with a ton of baggage that hasn't been outweighed by experience yet.

    Pawlenty is an interesting choice, if they go the route you said, picking a moderate (rest of board, by Republican standards, Pawlenty counts) I could see him getting the nod.

    I sort of hope they pick Ryan, because he's got some interesting issues with his budget (namely that it creates a bigger deficit than Obama's).

    Christie wouldn't take it if offered, imo. He's waiting for his chance at the big chair and Republicans don't really reward VP nominees.

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  • chrisnlchrisnl Registered User regular
    Isn't the Paul Ryan budget the one that claims to generate a ridiculous amount of revenue from closing tax loopholes, without any sort of explanation of which loopholes or any sign that Republicans would be willing to legislate said loophole closures?

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  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Harrisonburg, VARegistered User regular
    Romney can't pick a moderate, he needs someone who pleases the conservatives, particularly the hard-core Teapers. I also don't get how you think Ryan would out-debate Biden, he's shown no actual ability to back up his ideas with details.

  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Hee, Paul Ryan.

    Lose: to suffer defeat, to misplace (Ex: "I hope I don't lose the match." "Did you lose your phone again?")
    Loose: about to slip, to release (Ex: "That knot is loose." "Loose arrows.")
  • BurtletoyBurtletoy Registered User regular
    edited April 2012

    Pawlenty is an interesting choice, if they go the route you said, picking a moderate (rest of board, by Republican standards, Pawlenty counts) I could see him getting the nod.

    Ahhhhh the coveted Mormon/Mormon ticket.



    I doubt they'll go in that direction.


    Edit: Wait, did I get my dropouts confused? Huntsman was the other mormon, wasn't he? My bad :(

    Burtletoy on
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    chrisnl wrote: »
    Isn't the Paul Ryan budget the one that claims to generate a ridiculous amount of revenue from closing tax loopholes, without any sort of explanation of which loopholes or any sign that Republicans would be willing to legislate said loophole closures?

    Yes, and even when the CBO took it as read it creates a bigger deficit than Obama's budget would. So, moral imperatives and all.

    Lh96QHG.png
  • Warlock82Warlock82 Never pet a burning dog Registered User regular
    Romney can't pick a moderate, he needs someone who pleases the conservatives, particularly the hard-core Teapers. I also don't get how you think Ryan would out-debate Biden, he's shown no actual ability to back up his ideas with details.

    Romney could easily pick a moderate. Tea Partiers would rather vote for a moderate than re-elect Obama.

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  • CommunistCowCommunistCow Registered User regular
    I could see Romney choosing Rubio because he is Cuban and somehow try and use that to shore up the rest of the Hispanic vote. That wouldn't really work, but I could see them trying it.

    No, I am not really communist. Yes, it is weird that I use this name.
  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    Warlock82 wrote: »
    Romney can't pick a moderate, he needs someone who pleases the conservatives, particularly the hard-core Teapers. I also don't get how you think Ryan would out-debate Biden, he's shown no actual ability to back up his ideas with details.

    Romney could easily pick a moderate. Tea Partiers would rather vote for a moderate than re-elect Obama.

    Or they'd just not vote.

    Or compel Paul to try another third party run.

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This discussion has been closed.