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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] This guy, who I named "Brexit", did something stupid

RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
edited March 2017 in Debate and/or Discourse
So this archipelago

522px-Britain_and_Ireland_satellite_image_bright.png

Has these nations.

200px-Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg.png200px-Flag_of_Ireland.svg.png

These nations are almost completely not unique in that they're run by a system known as Politics!

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

Run by this Lady.

2016-07-13-1468405452-1079265-Theresa_May.jpg

These folk would rather she didn't.

381px-Jeremy_Corbyn%2C_Tolpuddle_2016%2C_1_crop.jpg448px-Tim_farron_2014.jpg
396px-Boris_Johnson_July_2015.jpgrexfeatures-3666176i.jpg


The Issues

So after the most unrepresentative general election in history, as I'll let CGP Grey explain:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9rGX91rq5I

A major constitutional decision was put to a straight up/down vote for questionable reasons of internal party politics, and it backfired cataclysmically because of milquetoast Remain campaigning and relentless criminally irresponsible bullshit. I'll also let CGP Grey explain what the current situation is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3_I2rfApYk

There are some other issues like Theresa May's downplaying of Climate Change as part of her reshuffle and Jeremy Hunt still being a dick to the NHS, but Brexit dominates the political landscape.

There's also an attempt to oust Robespierre from the National Convention, but the sans-culottes seem to be rallying to protect him even if he won't actually give them Bread and the Constitution of 1793 because his own sense of virtue is more important. This risks a Federalist Revolt. Robespierre is triumphant and is striving to create his Nation of Virtue, all the while the Comte d'Artois has secured Paris and is vascilating on how to handle the continental system.

And of course we now have to see what happens in light of the Trumpscendance.

A spiffing place to keep up to date with the latest developments.


An Poblacht na hÉireann

Okay, as someone who actually lives in the Republic of Ireland Desktop Hippie did an infinitely better job than I did explaining things, so I'm gonna pilfer this goldmine of a post to give you a lay of the land.
Okay then, let's add a little Hiberno to the Hiberno-Britannic Politics thread! Because I've been keeping quiet lately but there's actually a fair bit happening over here.

As @RMS Oceanic Said in the OP, this chap

113px-Enda_Kenny_2015_%28cropped%29.jpg

is Enda Kenny, An Taoiseach, the Irish version of Prime Minister of An Poblacht na hÉireann. However, he's had a pretty bad week and is facing calls to step down, because quitting is all the rage these days.

To understand the situation better, I need to go over the last Irish General Election.

It was a mess.

Here's a rundown of the main contenders:

Simpsons_Politics.jpg

You had Fianna Gael, who were in power and very unpopular due to their mismanagement of a number of different austerity measures and because they pushed ahead with the EU stipulation that Ireland had to bring in water charges, something most other European countries have (including the UK.) The issue of water charges has been a huge one in Ireland, with many who have been struggling with lower wages, higher taxes and an increased cost of living seeing it as the final straw and refusing outright to pay.

You had Labour, who helped Fianna Gael with all this, despite the fact that they're SUPPOSED TO BE A FUCKING LABOUR PARTY!

You had Fianna Fáil, arch enemies of Fianna Gael and the party who were in power before and during the 2008 financial crisis, who also drove our economy headlong into the worst of it, which lead to all the crap Fianna Gael has done since - something Fianna Gael are very keen to point out.

You had The Green Party, who helped Fianna Fáil to do all this, despite the fact that they're SUPPOSED TO BE A FUCKING GREEN PARTY!

You had Sinn Féin, growing in popularity in working class Dublin and various areas of the country by setting themselves up as the anti-corruption "honest" party, railing against the politicians who took bribes from Ben Dunne while hoping nobody pointed out that they had kidnapped him.

You had the Social Democrats, a small left wing outfit who are quickly becoming the choice for voters sick of the irony of having a right of center Labour party.

You had Renua, who were... honestly, Mrs. Lovejoy pretty much covers it.

You had People Before Profit and the Anti Austerity Alliance. Both parties do exactly what it says on the tin.

And you had independents. Lots and lots and LOTS of independents, who range from this guy...

220px-Shane_Ross_elected_2011.jpg

Shane Ross, voice of the middle-to-upper-middle class who see themselves as the real victims of the 2008 financial crisis. To be fair, they're not entirely wrong. The collapse in the value of bank shares meant that many who had spent their entire lives working and were getting ready for a nice, comfy retirement saw their pensions obliterated overnight and instead find themselves having to grind through their golden years clinging to their jobs and living hand-to-mouth. They absolutely have caused to be pissed off, but they do tend to wear a bit on the nerves of someone who has to sit in a sodden adult nappy in their wheelchair for hours on end because their home care visits have been cut back to two half hours every day.

...to this guy

FT5S+Mick+Wallace+Clare+Daly+Independents.jpg

Mick Wallace, voice of lower-to-middle class who campaigns against austerity, against overpunitive drug policy and against discrimination against women - making him one of the few who will tackle the abortion issue head on - while quietly hoping that nobody remembers that he's a well off property developer.

Oh and you also had these guys

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Michael and Danny Healy-Rae, who represent the all important Kerry farmers vote. Because of course they do.

"Gosh, Desktop Hippie!" you say! "What a web of interests and intrigue! Who won the election?"

That's the problem. Nobody.

Well, Fianna Gael juuuuust about managed to keep a majority despite losing a bunch of seats, but it wasn't enough to form a government and while many other parties gained significant ground, none of them had enough to form a government either. After the longest gap between an election and the formation of a government in the history of the Irish State (lasting over 50 days!) Fianna Gael eventually hammered out a deal with Shane Ross and his Independent Alliance, a group of six independent TDs (the Irish version of MPs) who agreed to club together as a sort of minority party in exchange for focus on their various raisons d'être and seats on the cabinet. This is exactly as stable a government as you're probably imagining it to be.

So, the election was in February of this year and we finally got a government at the end of April. What's happened since then?

Well, Fianna Fáil have continued to gain ground with people who are willing to forgive the whole destroying-the-economy thing if they promise to be good TDs and never do it again, especially since Fianna Gael are coming across as dangerously unstable in the fragile post-Brexit days. To tackle Brexit head on, Enda Kenny decided to set up an all-island forum focusing entirely on Brexit and the fallout. However, he sort of forgot to tell First Minister and DUP Leader Arlene Foster about it in advance. Needless to say, this went down like a lead balloon. Adding to this, there was a vote on the hugely controversial issue of abortion (still illegal in Ireland, don't get me started) in which Enda allowed his Independent ministers a free vote, which drew sharp criticism.

The biggest problem though? He fired the Deputy Leader of Fianna Gael, went through a selection process to choose a new Deputy Leader and has decided to go with... the guy he fired.

Feeling better about Theresa May yet?

And this image probably sums up what Ireland thinks about the world right now

xg1uiuerimxp.jpg

A shockin' good place to see what the feck the craic is.

So, discuss the goings on in the Dail and the Commons!

(Thanks to hbomberguy for inspiring the thread title)

RMS Oceanic on
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Posts

  • Bad-BeatBad-Beat Registered User regular
    edited March 2017
    If only the thread title could be a gif..

    may-lol.gif

    Bad-Beat on
  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Is she alright?

    Does the Commons have a doctor on call, I think she's having a seizure

  • ThirithThirith Registered User regular
    I think the GIF stops/loops at the exact point where her face slowly breaks down and reveals the lizard person or evil robot overlord beneath the surprisingly convincing human mask.

    webp-net-resizeimage.jpg
    "Nothing is gonna save us forever but a lot of things can save us today." - Night in the Woods
  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Thirith wrote: »
    I think the GIF stops/loops at the exact point where her face slowly breaks down and reveals the lizard person or evil robot overlord beneath the surprisingly convincing human mask.

    "Two weeks."

  • PerduraboPerdurabo Registered User regular
    There are some good versions of that gif, including eating a fish and one surrounded by flames. But I'm at work, and don't want to risk searching for Theresa May gifs on my work internet, because of the other one.

  • pezgenpezgen Registered User regular
    A BBC Reporter is saying the chancellor has confirmed that Britain will be leaving the Customs Union?



    Among other things, that means a return to the hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland

    I heard the interview, and it was mentioned almost in passing, but yes - Hammond said we wouldn't be part of the customs union. He said "we need to negotiate a customs relationship that works in the best interests of blah blah blah everyone needs to stop talking Brexit down blah blah blah the decision has been made everyone stop talking about it"

  • PerduraboPerdurabo Registered User regular
    This is the section of the speech in Jan:
    That means I do not want Britain to be part of the Common Commercial Policy and I do not want us to be bound by the Common External Tariff. These are the elements of the Customs Union that prevent us from striking our own comprehensive trade agreements with other countries. But I do want us to have a customs agreement with the EU.

    Whether that means we must reach a completely new customs agreement, become an associate member of the Customs Union in some way, or remain a signatory to some elements of it, I hold no preconceived position. I have an open mind on how we do it. It is not the means that matter, but the ends.

    It's striking how quickly the government's position on these things change. Have they been told that associate membership is a non starter? Because Hammond said:
    It’s clear that we can’t stay in the customs union and wasting a lot of political capital arguing about that will not be fruitful.

  • PerduraboPerdurabo Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »

    It should have been a children's story about a cat, surely?

  • BurnageBurnage Registered User regular
    Bad-Beat wrote: »
    If only the thread title could be a gif..

    may-lol.gif

    What's with our politicians relatively frequently looking like they're wearing malfunctioning human suits?

  • ThirithThirith Registered User regular
    What's with the UK in general that it seems like a particularly dystopic episode of Black Mirror?

    (While "The Waldo Moment" is one of my least favourite episodes, it may also be the one that's been most prophetic.)

    webp-net-resizeimage.jpg
    "Nothing is gonna save us forever but a lot of things can save us today." - Night in the Woods
  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Burnage wrote: »
    Bad-Beat wrote: »
    If only the thread title could be a gif..

    may-lol.gif

    What's with our politicians relatively frequently looking like they're wearing malfunctioning human suits?

    At least they're not farting prolifically

  • 101101 Registered User regular
    pezgen wrote: »
    A BBC Reporter is saying the chancellor has confirmed that Britain will be leaving the Customs Union?



    Among other things, that means a return to the hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland

    I heard the interview, and it was mentioned almost in passing, but yes - Hammond said we wouldn't be part of the customs union. He said "we need to negotiate a customs relationship that works in the best interests of blah blah blah everyone needs to stop talking Brexit down blah blah blah the decision has been made everyone stop talking about it"

    I'm not familiar with Irish politics, but I can't imagine anyone thre wants a hard border?

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    edited March 2017
    101 wrote: »
    pezgen wrote: »
    A BBC Reporter is saying the chancellor has confirmed that Britain will be leaving the Customs Union?



    Among other things, that means a return to the hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland

    I heard the interview, and it was mentioned almost in passing, but yes - Hammond said we wouldn't be part of the customs union. He said "we need to negotiate a customs relationship that works in the best interests of blah blah blah everyone needs to stop talking Brexit down blah blah blah the decision has been made everyone stop talking about it"

    I'm not familiar with Irish politics, but I can't imagine anyone thre wants a hard border?

    I can't think of anybody who has called for it. Not even the DUP. There's a Belfast-Dublin motorway built on the premise of there being no border. Tons of communities and small roads that straggle the border which will be a logistical nightmare to monitor and probably be yet another waste of money that could have (not) been spent on the NHS.

    Their entire sales pitch can be described as "Good Friday what now?"

    RMS Oceanic on
  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Speaking of areas the government is clearly not caring to consider in its negotiation stance, what's Gibraltar's attitude to this? If Northern Ireland will be harmed, they're probably gonna be crushed.

  • 101101 Registered User regular
    Ohhh yh

    Gibraltar.

    So is this how Gibraltar becomes part of spain again?between that and a hard border I know which on I'd go for

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    edited March 2017
    101 wrote: »
    Ohhh yh

    Gibraltar.

    So is this how Gibraltar becomes part of spain again?between that and a hard border I know which on I'd go for

    Nowhere else voted so decisively to remain. Not even Scotland. It was something like 95-5.

    Haven't heard anything, but if Madrid aren't trying to butter them up they're missing a trick.

    RMS Oceanic on
  • 101101 Registered User regular
    It's funny that the people who would consider themselves the most patriotic and nationalistic amoung us could cause so many places to leave the UK .

    Oh wait no not funny. Sad

    just sad

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    101 wrote: »
    It's funny that the people who would consider themselves the most patriotic and nationalistic amoung us could cause so many places to leave the UK .

    Oh wait no not funny. Sad

    just sad

    Sad!

  • Dis'Dis' Registered User regular
    Just tell the brexiteers in England we're out of the EU, keep the irish border open and let us cross it in and out of the EU. It's not like the silly geese are going to go check ;).

  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    New budget has kicked up a bit of a fuss at my work

    Surprise 25% tax charge on transferring your benefits overseas! Oof

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    New budget has kicked up a bit of a fuss at my work

    Surprise 25% tax charge on transferring your benefits overseas! Oof

    Makes sense given what's coming

  • SchadenfreudeSchadenfreude Mean Mister Mustard Registered User regular

    xg1uiuerimxp.jpg

    They missed a trick on that caption.
    Trump to the left of me, Brexit to the right.
    Éire I am, stuck in the middle with E.U.

    Contemplate this on the Tree of Woe
  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    New budget has kicked up a bit of a fuss at my work

    Surprise 25% tax charge on transferring your benefits overseas! Oof

    Makes sense given what's coming

    Well sort of

    The government is cracking down on tax relief on pensions for higher earners and has been for years

    Most overseas transfers are big ones to, like, Malta and Gibraltar and such

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    Solar wrote: »
    New budget has kicked up a bit of a fuss at my work

    Surprise 25% tax charge on transferring your benefits overseas! Oof

    Makes sense given what's coming

    Well sort of

    The government is cracking down on tax relief on pensions for higher earners and has been for years

    Most overseas transfers are big ones to, like, Malta and Gibraltar and such

    It does sound like an attempt to mitigate/dissuade some sort of mass capital flight as well.

  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Part of it I'm sure

  • PerduraboPerdurabo Registered User regular
    Given that if the pension is transferred to your new employers scheme, or if it is transferred within the EEA the tax doesn't apply, I'm inclined to agree that it's a measure to stop rich folk sending money just to gain benefit from lax tax regimes. Anyone genuinely moving abroad should have little worry. Considering the amount of tax relief pensions schemes generally enjoy, it seems fair to me to claw something back if you're moving it abroad to avoid taxation.

    This is a good article on Gibraltar and the EU

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Given that if the pension is transferred to your new employers scheme, or if it is transferred within the EEA the tax doesn't apply, I'm inclined to agree that it's a measure to stop rich folk sending money just to gain benefit from lax tax regimes. Anyone genuinely moving abroad should have little worry. Considering the amount of tax relief pensions schemes generally enjoy, it seems fair to me to claw something back if you're moving it abroad to avoid taxation.

    This is a good article on Gibraltar and the EU

    Paywall, can you please quote a few highlights?

  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    People only tend to QROPS transfer to certain places which could be accused of tax havens, in my experience.

    But yes if you are genuinely moving abroad you'll be fine

  • altidaltid Registered User regular
    The BBC are reporting that Hammond is under some pressure from tory MPs over the national insurance rise as it goes against a pledge in the 2015 manifesto.

    I'm surprised anyone still thought that manifesto mattered. The current government certainly doesn't think so - they weren't elected on it after all.

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    altid wrote: »
    The BBC are reporting that Hammond is under some pressure from tory MPs over the national insurance rise as it goes against a pledge in the 2015 manifesto.

    I'm surprised anyone still thought that manifesto mattered. The current government certainly doesn't think so - they weren't elected on it after all.

    "It matters when I wanted it!"

  • Mc zanyMc zany Registered User regular
    Very flexible document that manifesto. It also says no hard brexit.

  • PerduraboPerdurabo Registered User regular
    One of the best tweets occasioned by Brexit was sent not long after the polls closed on the day of the referendum:

    Hardplace2.jpg

    The speed of the count was not the only impressive electoral feat of the Gibraltar vote that night. Ninety-six percent of those who voted in Gibraltar wanted the UK to remain in the EU. This was by far the highest support for EU membership in any area that voted in the referendum.

    But what are the consequences for Gibraltar of that referendum’s overall vote for Brexit? Has the vote for Leave placed the Rock in a hard place?

    Gibraltar has developed a distinct and complex relationship with the EU. It is part of the single market, and it gives effect to the freedom of movement of people, services and capital. Some 60 per cent of its law is based on EU law, and the government is proud of its record of being up-to-date with implementation of Union laws. Few if any other members of the EU are as conscientious as Gibraltar when it comes to taking EU law seriously.

    But Gibraltar is not a participant in the common commercial policy (the customs union), the common agricultural policy or the common fisheries policy. There is no EU obligation to levy VAT. There is no freedom of movement of goods. And, like the UK, Gibraltar is not part of the Schengen area for “borderless” movement of people nor part of the eurozone. Gibraltarians are good Europeans but on their own terms.

    At the referendum there are two broad but interlinked reasons why Gibraltar was so emphatic in its support for UK membership of the EU, and these reasons in turn indicate the two broad but interlinked problems that Brexit now presents for the territory.

    The first reason is that the highly successful Gibraltarian economic model is highly dependent on EU membership. Although 90 per cent of the territory’s trade in financial services is (nominally) with the UK, these services — notably insurance and online gambling – are in turn reliant on Britain having access to the single market. The majority of the workforce that produces these services daily cross the border from Spain (when Spain lets them). The economy of Gibraltar is an exemplar of EU cross-border economics, both in terms of inputs and outputs. Gibraltar is rich because its relationship with the EU and UK make it so.

    The second reason is the country across the border: Spain. Gibraltar was a Spanish possession for the 250 or so years between 1462 and 1704. The territory was formally ceded to the British in 1713. Spain considers it as Spanish even though for most of Gibraltar’s history it has been either Moorish or British.

    One primary aim of Spanish foreign policy is to regain at least some element of sovereignty over the territory of Gibraltar, if not complete sovereignty then joint sovereignty. And without exaggeration, the means by which it wants to obtain that policy goal has often been by intimidation. This was especially the case for the five years after 2010. In 2014, the normally restrained House of Commons foreign affairs committee reported that the “behaviour of Spain toward Gibraltar was unacceptable” and amounted to “a campaign of harassment and intimidation”.

    The documented detail in that report was extraordinary, especially when one considers that Spain and the UK are (supposedly) close EU and Nato allies. Gibraltar was subject to ongoing coercion and interference by land, sea and air. The land border could be subject to sudden delays of up to six hours; the territorial waters saw regular violations of sovereignty by Spanish police and other vessels; and the Spanish government reneged on its previous agreement about Gibraltar’s airport and actively obstructed the territory’s attempts to be part of the EU aerospace regime.

    So frequent and troublesome were the Spanish threats to Gibraltar that between 2010 and 2014 the Spanish ambassador in London was summoned so regularly to the UK foreign office that only the Syrian ambassador was summoned more often. As such a diplomatic summons is drastic in any circumstances, for it to happen routinely with a fellow EU member state was remarkable. No other EU ambassador was summoned once in the same period.

    To an outsider, this Spanish aggression toward Gibraltar looks not only spiteful and petty but also counter-productive. Gibraltar is essential to the adjacent Spanish economy of Andalucia, and the territory accounts for about a quarter of Andalucia’s GDP. The vast majority of the thousands of cross-border workers are from the local Spanish region. So when Spain hurts Gibraltar, it also hurts a part of itself that otherwise has an unemployment rate of 35 per cent. But the Madrid politicians seem not to care.

    More recently, however, with the new Spanish foreign minister Alfonso Dastis (a former diplomat), Spanish policy seems to have become more conciliatory. But only last year his predecessor said that in the event of a vote for Brexit, the Spanish government would re-assert its sovereignty demands the “next day”. There is no inherent reason why Spanish policy cannot take an intimidation turn again. There just has to be a change of whim in Madrid.

    And this is the importance of the EU for Gibraltar. Although Spain from time to time was able to use the EU institutions to advance its claims on the territory, in general the EU has provided the means by which Gibraltar could check Spain. Before Spain joined the EU’s predecessor in 1985 there had been a hard border; since 1985 there has been (on the whole) a collaborative and free-flowing border to the mutual benefit of Gibraltar and the adjacent Spanish region, made possible by the EU and its institutions.

    In 2013-2015, for example, it was the three formal visits by the European Commission that ensured the excessive delays at the Spanish border were brought to an end. The Gibraltarians also have the last resort of taking enforcement action against Spain at the European Court of Justice to allow the free movement of EU people over the border. Again and again, EU law and policy provided Gibraltar with a legitimate basis for checking intimidating Spanish practices.

    Brexit, therefore, does not so much create new problems for Gibraltar as remove the way older problems were being solved. (This is comparable, of course, to how mutual EU membership of both the UK and the Republic of Ireland proved convenient get-arounds for knotty border issues in respect of Northern Ireland.) With the European Commission and the European Court of Justice out of the way, there may soon be no practical ways to address a return by Spain to intimidation and obstruction.

    The Gibraltarian government is seeking to be upbeat about Brexit. The first minister makes the valid point that, the occasional Spanish intimidation aside, the territory shows how a free-flowing border can bring prosperity even when there is no common commercial policy. And the UK in turn has stated that it will ensure Gibraltar’s continued access to the UK market when the EU relationship is removed between Britain and its overseas territory.

    For the tourist, Gibraltar’s elaborate attachments to the UK – from Winston Churchill Avenue to the copycat police helmets – can make it seem like a Britain in miniature. But the post-1985 history of Gibraltar shows that economic interdependence and a collaborative border can (generally) be possible without a customs union. It also show that there will be many new and revived inconveniences once there is no longer access to EU law and institutions. In this way, Gibraltar is also perhaps an example of Brexit in miniature.

  • PerduraboPerdurabo Registered User regular
    edited March 2017
    Mc zany wrote: »
    Very flexible document that manifesto. It also says no hard brexit.

    No it doesn't. It states aims relating to the single market should we remain in the EU. By that rationale you believe post Brexit we should be part of the Common Agricultural Policy (as the manifesto seeks to reform this, again as part of the EU).

    Perdurabo on
  • JoeUserJoeUser Forum Santa Registered User regular
    Is there an estimated date when Article 50 gets triggered? Does it have to wait for reconciliation of the Lords amendments?

  • Alistair HuttonAlistair Hutton Dr EdinburghRegistered User regular
  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    edited March 2017
    Seems a pretty big swing
    JoeUser wrote: »
    Is there an estimated date when Article 50 gets triggered? Does it have to wait for reconciliation of the Lords amendments?

    Has any version of the bill been submitted to the Queen? Pretty sure she needs to sign off on it to formally transfer the power.

    RMS Oceanic on
  • KarlKarl Registered User regular
    Honestly, if the SNP are serious about another Indyref, they need to be patient and let Brexit happen. Once the shit storm is in full effect, they can use it as leverage to leave.

    Can the SNP survive losing another Indyref?

  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Karl wrote: »
    Honestly, if the SNP are serious about another Indyref, they need to be patient and let Brexit happen. Once the shit storm is in full effect, they can use it as leverage to leave.

    Can the SNP survive losing another Indyref?

    Could be in a Lib Dem situation where what everybody else did makes it easier to forgive their past transgressions

  • JoeUserJoeUser Forum Santa Registered User regular
    Karl wrote: »
    Honestly, if the SNP are serious about another Indyref, they need to be patient and let Brexit happen. Once the shit storm is in full effect, they can use it as leverage to leave.

    Can the SNP survive losing another Indyref?

    Sturgeon is saying autumn 2018 as a logical choice. That still seems too soon.

This discussion has been closed.