Primaries: Democralypse Now!

Lion · April 2008

Speaker wrote: »

I'd be willing to bet that Bill Clinton wasn't exactly rocking the elderly demographic in his two campaigns.

Exit polling for 1996

AS_hellion · April 2008

It certainly could be. This is especially true given that Obama hasn't started to campaign against McCain and hasn't faced him in a debate. I still think it is a bit early, but seeing those numbers are certainly promising.

ElJeffe · April 2008

Lion wrote: »

Speaker wrote: »

I'd be willing to bet that Bill Clinton wasn't exactly rocking the elderly demographic in his two campaigns.

Exit polling for 1996

Meh, that just mimics generic Dem/Pub breakdowns as colored by a sitting president in a time of prosperity. I'd be more interested to see the polling for the 1992 democratic primaries. If it exists.

JamesKeenan · April 2008

I'm excited because more than just hoping Obama could win, I objectively reason that he just will win.

I feel good.

Spoiler:

Rufus_Shinra · April 2008

Hedgethorn wrote: »

The first poll of South Dakota democrats (June 3rd Primary) has Obama over Clinton by 12 points. That is not surprising, given Obama's domination of contests in the Upper Midwest/Great Plains.

What is surprising is that the same poll reports that, in a matchup of Obama vs. McCain in North Dakota, McCain is ahead, but within the margin of error. This matches a results from SUSA in early March that everyone dismissed as an implausible result.

Could North Dakota, a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson, be competitive this fall?

I've said it before and I'll say it again. People from the upper midwest love Obama. His normal charm works twice as well on us, and he would be the first President from the Midwest in over a hundred years. He is going to win Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois no matter what. Any state that borders those is also completely on the table for him to win.

Spoiler:

BlackDragon480 · April 2008

Rufus_Shinra wrote: »

His normal charm works twice as well on us, and he would be the first President from the Midwest in over a hundred years.

Dwight Eisenhower and Harry Truman were from Kansas and Missouri respectivly. I'd say they qualify as midwesterners.

Thanatos · April 2008

BlackDragon480 wrote: »

Rufus_Shinra wrote: »

His normal charm works twice as well on us, and he would be the first President from the Midwest in over a hundred years.

Dwight Eisenhower and Harry Truman were from Kansas and Missouri respectivly. I'd say they qualify as midwesterners.

Depends on who you're talking to, but those states are both border states; a lot of people would say they're not part of the Midwest.

Hedgethorn · April 2008

BlackDragon480 wrote: »

Rufus_Shinra wrote: »

His normal charm works twice as well on us, and he would be the first President from the Midwest in over a hundred years.

Dwight Eisenhower and Harry Truman were from Kansas and Missouri respectivly. I'd say they qualify as midwesterners.

People from the Upper Midwest (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, maybe the Dakotas) are quick to point out that they are nothing like people from Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, etc. That's why, though everyone else in the country just calls the whole area "the Midwest", people in the region differentiate the Upper Midwest from the Great Plains, and both of those from Missouri.

So I'll just take Rufus as claiming that there hasn't been a president from the Upper Midwest in 100 years. Except that's also false; Hoover was from Iowa.

Edit: Beaten by Thanatos, who's a dirty Left-Coaster.

Scalfin · April 2008

Hedgethorn wrote: »

BlackDragon480 wrote: »

Rufus_Shinra wrote: »

His normal charm works twice as well on us, and he would be the first President from the Midwest in over a hundred years.

Dwight Eisenhower and Harry Truman were from Kansas and Missouri respectivly. I'd say they qualify as midwesterners.

People from the Upper Midwest (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, maybe the Dakotas) are quick to point out that they are nothing like people from Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, etc. That's why, though everyone else in the country just calls the whole area "the Midwest", people in the region differentiate the Upper Midwest from the Great Plains, and both of those from Missouri.

So I'll just take Rufus as claiming that there hasn't been a president from the Upper Midwest in 100 years. Except that's also false; Hoover was from Iowa.

Edit: Beaten by Thanatos, who's a dirty Left-Coaster.

Illinois is south of Richmond, Virginia.

JamesKeenan · April 2008

Clinton says it's "not relevant" when she last went to church or fired a gun.

No, Hillary, no it's not. I'd commend you on this if it didn't come across as so fucking hypocritical and slimy given this last weekend and previous petty attacks on your part.

Lion · April 2008

ElJeffe wrote: »

Lion wrote: »

Speaker wrote: »

I'd be willing to bet that Bill Clinton wasn't exactly rocking the elderly demographic in his two campaigns.

Exit polling for 1996

Meh, that just mimics generic Dem/Pub breakdowns as colored by a sitting president in a time of prosperity. I'd be more interested to see the polling for the 1992 democratic primaries. If it exists.

Wiki is the only place I could find for that. 1992 data

Seems pretty similar looking at the 60 and older crowd.

enlightenedbum · April 2008

Harding was from Ohio, which I consider part of the Midwest. Of course he sucked, so maybe we should ignore him.

Rufus_Shinra · April 2008

Hedgethorn wrote: »

BlackDragon480 wrote: »

Rufus_Shinra wrote: »

His normal charm works twice as well on us, and he would be the first President from the Midwest in over a hundred years.

Dwight Eisenhower and Harry Truman were from Kansas and Missouri respectivly. I'd say they qualify as midwesterners.

People from the Upper Midwest (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, maybe the Dakotas) are quick to point out that they are nothing like people from Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, etc. That's why, though everyone else in the country just calls the whole area "the Midwest", people in the region differentiate the Upper Midwest from the Great Plains, and both of those from Missouri.

So I'll just take Rufus as claiming that there hasn't been a president from the Upper Midwest in 100 years. Except that's also false; Hoover was from Iowa.

Edit: Beaten by Thanatos, who's a dirty Left-Coaster.

This post is entirely truthful and accurate.

I meant Upper Midwest. This may not mean much to most of you people, but it really does mean something.

Still though, Hoover is a long time ago.

SithDrummer · April 2008

Thanatos wrote: »

BlackDragon480 wrote: »

Rufus_Shinra wrote: »

His normal charm works twice as well on us, and he would be the first President from the Midwest in over a hundred years.

Dwight Eisenhower and Harry Truman were from Kansas and Missouri respectivly. I'd say they qualify as midwesterners.

Depends on who you're talking to, but those states are both border states; a lot of people would say they're not part of the Midwest.

o_O I have never met a person who didn't think those were midwest states, and that's the first question I ask anyone I meet.

Just_Bri_Thanks · April 2008

"Hi, nice to meet you. Question for you: Name the mid-western states?"

Rufus_Shinra · April 2008

Midwest is a meaningless geographical term for states that exist in the middle of the country. The midwest is really three distinct regions in terms of what the people are actually like. There are the great plains, the rust belt and the upper midwest.

Arbitrary list of regions which most people from the region would agree on:

Great plains: North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri
Rust belt: Indiana, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania and Michigan
Upper midwest: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois

Some states like Michigan get tricky, but the point is the Midwest is three distinct regions and anyone who confuses a Minnesotan with someone from Missouri just doesn't get it and never will.

TheMarshal · April 2008

They're all "flyover" states to anybody from either coast.

Speaker · April 2008

JamesKeenan wrote: »

Clinton says it's "not relevant" when she last went to church or fired a gun.

No, Hillary, no it's not. I'd commend you on this if it didn't come across as so fucking hypocritical and slimy given this last weekend and previous petty attacks on your part.

SCRANTON, Pennsylvania (CNN) – After a weekend spent making direct appeals to gun owners and church goers, Hillary Clinton said Sunday a query about the last time she fired a gun or attended church services "is not a relevant question in this debate” over Barack Obama’s recent comments on small town Americans.

“We can answer that some other time,” Clinton said at a press conference held in a working class neighborhood here. “This is about what people feel is being said about them. I went to church on Easter. I mean, so?”

Aaaaaaand she's back on the defensive.

Let the Glorious Conquest continue.

Romp romp romp

Gosling · April 2008

Really, at least a small part of Obama's appeal in the Upper Midwest is that he's semi-local. The last truly UP President's been Ford and he was unelected (Reagan's a Californian). Before that was Warren Harding of Ohio, and Indiana last scored with Benjamin Harrison. Illinois? Lincoln. We haven't had much of a chance at the White House lately is what I'm saying. Usually tickets try to buy us off with veeps (and badly; the last three UP veeps have been Quayle, Mondale and Ford).

Speaker · April 2008

mtvcdm wrote: »

Really, at least a small part of Obama's appeal in the Upper Midwest is that he's semi-local. The last truly UP President's been Ford and he was unelected (Reagan's a Californian). Before that was Warren Harding of Ohio, and Indiana last scored with Benjamin Harrison. Illinois? Lincoln. We haven't had much of a chance at the White House lately is what I'm saying. Usually tickets try to buy us off with veeps (and badly; the last three UP veeps have been Quayle, Mondale and Ford).

A lot of states haven't had a shot at all. It would take two hundred years to elect fifty different presidents one from each state.

Sami · April 2008

Hedgethorn wrote: »

The first poll of South Dakota democrats (June 3rd Primary) has Obama over Clinton by 12 points. That is not surprising, given Obama's domination of contests in the Upper Midwest/Great Plains.

What is surprising is that the same poll reports that, in a matchup of Obama vs. McCain in North Dakota, McCain is ahead, but within the margin of error. This matches a results from SUSA in early March that everyone dismissed as an implausible result.

Could North Dakota, a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson, be competitive this fall?

Yes. Personal integrity and a down-to-earth demeanor trump all in the upper-Midwest. Obama has these in spades, and -more importantly- can legitimately question McCain's.

Scalfin · April 2008

mtvcdm wrote: »

Really, at least a small part of Obama's appeal in the Upper Midwest is that he's semi-local. The last truly UP President's been Ford and he was unelected (Reagan's a Californian). Before that was Warren Harding of Ohio, and Indiana last scored with Benjamin Harrison. Illinois? Lincoln. We haven't had much of a chance at the White House lately is what I'm saying. Usually tickets try to buy us off with veeps (and badly; the last three UP veeps have been Quayle, Mondale and Ford).

My state's also been represented (Kennedy was from Vegas).

Hembot · April 2008

$10 says our first Hawaiian president will enter office when it becomes posh to wear suits of pineapple and Canadian bacon.

Sami · April 2008

Rufus_Shinra wrote: »

Midwest is a meaningless geographical term for states that exist in the middle of the country. The midwest is really three distinct regions in terms of what the people are actually like. There are the great plains, the rust belt and the upper midwest.

Arbitrary list of regions which most people from the region would agree on:

Great plains: North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri
Rust belt: Indiana, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania and Michigan
Upper midwest: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois

Some states like Michigan get tricky, but the point is the Midwest is three distinct regions and anyone who confuses a Minnesotan with someone from Missouri just doesn't get it and never will.

I agree that there needs to be distinction between the different parts of the Midwest, but I take issue with your categorization.

Upper Midwest: North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin

Rust Belt: Indiana, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Michigan and the Chicago area (pretty much the same as yours)

Great Plains: Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Missouri

Speaker · April 2008

Shazam!!

Go get 'em Joe!

Speaker · April 2008

Economists Weigh McCain’s Gas-Tax Plan

“You don’t want to stimulate consumption,” said Lawrence Goldstein, an economist at the Energy Policy Research Foundation. “The signal you want to send is the opposite one. Politicians should say that conservation is where people’s mindset ought to be.”
Mr. Goldstein said that instead of freezing the federal tax, the government should help lower-income populations pay for gasoline. It would be cheaper and benefit those households that need it most.

The United States the has lowest gasoline taxes among industrialized countries. It also has the highest gasoline consumption level in the world. Energy experts say the two are related.

America’s cars and trucks burn nearly one out of every nine barrels of oil produced around the world each day. The country also accounts for a quarter of global oil demand.

Gasoline taxes in Europe, for example, can account for up to 70 percent of fuel prices. Of course, Europeans pay much higher gasoline prices, but the high tax levels have shielded drivers there from the wild price swings that American motorists have experienced in recent years.
The federal gasoline tax funds government programs, such as the federal highway system. Cutting the tax would do only one thing: send more money to oil producers.

“Higher demand just pushes the world price a bit higher, giving a sizable share of the tax refund to oil producers,” said Lee Schipper, an energy expert and a visiting scholar at the University of California at Berkeley. He also pointed out that lower gasoline taxes, and hence spurring consumption, contradicts Senator McCain’s stated goal of reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.

Couscous · April 2008

Why would the oil companies drop the price if they are already selling out of all the sweet, sweet oil they ship? They could just keep the price, make more money, and demand wouldn't change at all.

Just_Bri_Thanks · April 2008

I am left to wonder: Who is it that is telling McCain his idea are good, or are giving those ideas to him?

Speaker · April 2008

Clinton losing traction over Obama in Pennsylvania, Indiana

WASHINGTON -- With three crucial Democratic primaries looming, Hillary Rodham Clinton may not be headed toward the blockbuster victories she needs to jump-start her presidential bid -- even in Pennsylvania, the state that was supposed to be her ace in the hole, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.

The survey found the New York senator leading Barack Obama by just 5 percentage points in Pennsylvania, which votes next Tuesday. Such a margin would not give her much of a boost in the battle for the party's nomination.

What is more, the poll found Clinton trails Obama by 5 points in Indiana, another Rust Belt state that should play to her strengths among blue-collar voters.

In North Carolina, an Obama stronghold, he is running 13 points ahead.

The race remains volatile, however, because many likely voters in the Democratic primaries are still undecided -- 12% in Pennsylvania, 19% in Indiana and 17% in North Carolina.

"I could be one who goes into the voting box and makes up my mind at the polls," Gwen Hodavance, a receptionist in Paoli, Pa., said in an interview after participating in the poll. "Obama is the best candidate, the best articulator of the mood for change, but I don't know how he would be for president."

The results underscore the rough road ahead for Clinton in the balloting in Pennsylvania and, on May 6, in Indiana and North Carolina.

With the Illinois senator leading Clinton in the number of convention delegates selected, states won and popular votes cast, she is hoping that a decisive win in Pennsylvania and a victory in Indiana will slow Obama's momentum and bolster her plea for support from the party's superdelegates -- the elected officials, party leaders and activists who likely will decide the nomination.

The poll, conducted under the supervision of Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 623 voters in Pennsylvania, 687 in Indiana and 691 in North Carolina who expected to cast Democratic ballots. The margin of sampling error for the findings in each state is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The telephone interviews took place Thursday through Monday, meaning the bulk were conducted just as controversy broke out over an Obama remark widely criticized as demeaning rural voters in Pennsylvania. He suggested that for some residents of small towns, their commitment to gun rights, religious faith and hostility toward foreign trade had its roots in their "bitterness" about economic hardships.

No poll question was asked specifically about the comment.

However, voters were asked about another controversy that has dogged the candidate in recent weeks: racially incendiary comments made by the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., the now-retired pastor of Obama's church in Chicago. The furor prodded Obama to deliver a major speech on racial relations in America last month.

In Pennsylvania, the flap seems to have marginally helped Obama more than hurt him: 24% said his handling of the issue made them think more highly of him; 15% said it made them think less highly of him; 58% said it made no difference in their views.

Gosling · April 2008

Speaker wrote: »

mtvcdm wrote: »

Really, at least a small part of Obama's appeal in the Upper Midwest is that he's semi-local. The last truly UP President's been Ford and he was unelected (Reagan's a Californian). Before that was Warren Harding of Ohio, and Indiana last scored with Benjamin Harrison. Illinois? Lincoln. We haven't had much of a chance at the White House lately is what I'm saying. Usually tickets try to buy us off with veeps (and badly; the last three UP veeps have been Quayle, Mondale and Ford).

A lot of states haven't had a shot at all. It would take two hundred years to elect fifty different presidents one from each state.

STATES. I'm talking the whole damn REGION.

Speaker · April 2008

mtvcdm wrote: »

Speaker wrote: »

mtvcdm wrote: »

Really, at least a small part of Obama's appeal in the Upper Midwest is that he's semi-local. The last truly UP President's been Ford and he was unelected (Reagan's a Californian). Before that was Warren Harding of Ohio, and Indiana last scored with Benjamin Harrison. Illinois? Lincoln. We haven't had much of a chance at the White House lately is what I'm saying. Usually tickets try to buy us off with veeps (and badly; the last three UP veeps have been Quayle, Mondale and Ford).

A lot of states haven't had a shot at all. It would take two hundred years to elect fifty different presidents one from each state.

STATES. I'm talking the whole damn REGION.

I'm reliably informed that the midwest is no less than three different regions.

Gosling · April 2008

Speaker wrote: »

mtvcdm wrote: »

Speaker wrote: »

mtvcdm wrote: »

Really, at least a small part of Obama's appeal in the Upper Midwest is that he's semi-local. The last truly UP President's been Ford and he was unelected (Reagan's a Californian). Before that was Warren Harding of Ohio, and Indiana last scored with Benjamin Harrison. Illinois? Lincoln. We haven't had much of a chance at the White House lately is what I'm saying. Usually tickets try to buy us off with veeps (and badly; the last three UP veeps have been Quayle, Mondale and Ford).

A lot of states haven't had a shot at all. It would take two hundred years to elect fifty different presidents one from each state.

STATES. I'm talking the whole damn REGION.

I'm reliably informed that the midwest is no less than three different regions.

And all three have been fucked over pretty good since Harding. (Since you're counting Missouri, toss Truman in there, but the point doesn't get hurt too much.)

Speaker · April 2008

mtvcdm wrote: »

Speaker wrote: »

mtvcdm wrote: »

Speaker wrote: »

mtvcdm wrote: »

Really, at least a small part of Obama's appeal in the Upper Midwest is that he's semi-local. The last truly UP President's been Ford and he was unelected (Reagan's a Californian). Before that was Warren Harding of Ohio, and Indiana last scored with Benjamin Harrison. Illinois? Lincoln. We haven't had much of a chance at the White House lately is what I'm saying. Usually tickets try to buy us off with veeps (and badly; the last three UP veeps have been Quayle, Mondale and Ford).

A lot of states haven't had a shot at all. It would take two hundred years to elect fifty different presidents one from each state.

STATES. I'm talking the whole damn REGION.

I'm reliably informed that the midwest is no less than three different regions.

And all three have been fucked over pretty good since Harding.

Michigan is or isn't the midwest in this equation? Or does Ford not count? Where did we come down on the Truman/Eisenhower thing?

Bah. Quit yer moaning. It isn't like New England does much better.

Gosling · April 2008

Eisenhower was Kansas, so he doesn't count by either of our interpretations. Ford was unelected.

My interpretation, by the way: ND, SD, MN, IA, WI, IL, IN, MI, OH. Basically Big Ten, plus Dakotas, minus Pennsylvania.

AS_hellion · April 2008

Hillary plans her first 100 days, never mind that she's 136 delegates behind

Hillary sketches out her first 100 days as a president. She is 136 delegates behind (by the AP count) and she still acts like she is ahead. That is some serious optimism right there.

MKR · April 2008

Can we all just agree the whole section of the country isn't worth all these posts and get on with things?

moniker · April 2008

They can only handle our awesomeness sitting in the oval office once a generation, MTVCDM. It's quite sad, really.

ElJeffe · April 2008

Can we just agree that the south has gotten way too many presidents lately and can eat a bag of flaming dicks?

Speaker · April 2008

Nothing wrong with the South per se.

But it has become less of a swing region lately, so I wouldn't be surprised to see more candidates from the midwest, presuming that becomes a more competitive battleground.

Just_Bri_Thanks · April 2008

ElJeffe wrote: »

Can we just agree that the south has gotten way too many presidents lately and can eat a bag of flaming dicks?

Here here! *toast*

Penny Arcade

Primaries: Democralypse Now!

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