In summary I just don't think VGC is as big a problem as everyone says they are. I also believe a reasonable grey area source for early info exists between "perfectly accurate" and "the worst guesses in the world" and I see no harm in citing that source, whether it is VGC or a GAF aggregate. Other than that I'm dropping the dumb conversation. I respect slash and the work he does here as well as everyone else's interesting analysis in this thread.

So ... why is it that we care about these numbers in the first place? Is it because we like to see what sells more? Or is it the business side of things that we're interested about? I'm thinking that the "VG Sales Thread" is a bit of a misnomer, as it's not just sales that we care about, but the overall business (revenue/profit/etc.) that intrigues us. We care because we like to know what does well and what does poorly, because we care about the industry. It's also fun to talk about or discuss why things sold well, or why they sold poorly in our opinions. It's also fun to just see how the market reacts to different things. Sometimes it's fun to analyze data, or make projections or whatever. It's just fun. That's your answer. If you're not posting in this thread because you find it fun in some manner, then I fail to see why you'd bother ever coming in here in the first place Yeah, that was meant to be more of a rhetorical question. I think it's great to have these sorts of discussions, and hopefully come out of them with a better appreciation and understanding of the industry. What I hope it doesn't turn into is the same amateurish fanboy/console-war flame-fest that you can find on countless other message boards and forums. Sometimes we get awfully close to that (and I'm sometimes to blame!), but very glad to see that we're generally pretty mature, wise, and open about things. *group hug*

I suppose if pressed I would be satisfied with 15% to 20%, as they've hit at least once before Now who's only using a single sample? Weird how they didn't see fit to mention how they did in Feb, March, or May. Their news archive is a mess to sift through, but I dug some up. Here are their Feb. 2009, March 2009 and Oct. 2008 (the first 3 I found in the archive) forecasts, actual NPD in brackets. Wii: 752,972 [753k] 0% NDS: 497,174 [588k] 15% 360: 315,992 [391k] 19% PS3: 204,218 [276k] 26% PSP: 189,106 [199k] 5% PS2: 90,087 [131k] 31% Wii Fit: 664k [644k] 3% Wii Play: 433k [386k] 12% Killzone 2: 353k [323k] 9% SFIV 360: 295k [446k] 34% Mario Kart: 191k [263k] 27% SFIV PS3: 165k [403k] 59% L4D : 142k [not in Top 10, <136k] Skate 2: 136k [not in Top 10, <136k] CoDWaW: 129k [193k] 33% Wii: 847,490 [601k] 41% PS3: 324,603 [218k] 49% 360: 383,525 [330k] 16% PSP: 245,736 [168k] 46% NDS: 655,561 [586k] 12% PS2: 119,824 [112k] 7% 50th out of 120 at GAF Pokemon: 1.02m [805k] 24% RE5 360: 759k [938k] 19% Wii Fit: 669k [541k] 24% Halo Wars: 600k [639k] 6% RE5 PS3: 470k [585k] 20% Wii Play: 372k [281k] 32% Mario Kart: 333k [278k] 20% KZ2: 287k [296k] 3% MLB 2K9: 223k [205k] 9% MLB The Show: 187k [305k] 39% Wii: 934k [803k] 16% NDS: 651k [491k] 53% 360: 335k [371k] 12% PS3: 247k [190k] 30% PSP: 231k [193k] 20% PS2: 139k [136k] 2% 104th out of 109 at GAF. Fable II: 893k [790k] 13% Wii Fit: 631k [487k] 30% Fallout 3: 448k [375k] 20% Saints Row 2: 416k [270k] 54% Wii Play: 407k [282k] 44% GHWT 360: 354k [191k] 85% LBP: 348k [no data, OUTSIDE OF TOP 20] Mario Kart: 340k [290k] 17% Dead Space: 330k [193k] 71% NBA 2K9: 273k [202k] 35% Stunning. And how often do the top 20 predictors at GAF remain in the top 20? Pretty often. Here's the Dec. 2008 results with results of the previous 3 months, and the overall year standings Code:     December 2008              Last 3 Months                Overall 2008 1.  Jokeropia         134.16  Jokeropia          359.17  doicare            1,284.49 2.  starship          132.69  lowlylowlycook     351.32  starship           1,279.73 3.  Rekwest            129.67  starship            347.72  Jokeropia          1,261.79 4.  bmf                124.95  Frillen            340.18  donny2112          1,249.71 5.  JoshuaJSlone       121.16  apujanata           338.78  botticus            1,239.15 6.  donny2112          119.39  Strike              336.62  llonesmiz          1,231.49 7.  daegan            119.28  donny2112          334.11  DayShallCome        1,220.44 8.  SPEA              118.75  doicare            332.18  JoshuaJSlone        1,214.53 9.  jett              115.3    Gaborn              330.13  dyls                1,212.00 10.  SIP YEK NOD        114.98  Chumly              329.39  Brak               1,207.10 11.  gollumsluvslave    114.36  sionyboy            328.42  rostocker           1,206.20 12.  Atreides          113.58  Yes Boss!          327.44  Strike              1,202.01 13.  Antares            112.44  1cesc              327.39  ]]Pachter          1,201.26 14.  cedric69          110.87  rikitikitik        325.49  danwarb            1,200.17 15.  apujanata          109.63  Jesse2040          324.37  Frillen             1,195.29 16.  Minsc              109.36  RBH                324.12  SuperBanjo          1,195.01 17.  YuriLowell        107.64  rostocker           320.07  Psychotext          1,186.00 18.  rostocker          106.69  llonesmiz          319.51  rikitikitik        1,183.36 19.  doicare            105.87  Rekwest            319.49  RBH                1,182.48 20.  Chumly            105.66  Brak              318.79  Brakara            1,179.08 I see a lot of familiar names in all 3 columns. And there were always ~150 people each month. Anyway here's the thing. It's already difficult enough to debate things with as little evidence as we have. But what if someone saw the VGC 'solid estimate' of less than 500k combined for SFIV and started debating "LOL what Capcom is doing?!?", only later to find out combined sales were closer to 1m. Or they put out a release saying MLB 2K9 sold better than MLB The Show when it actually didn't, or the massive disappointment VGC must have left Sony fans with when they predicted 384k and the #8 position for LBP and it ended up not even in the Top 20. What if a reporter was using that LBP number for an article about Sony's holiday success?

Anyway, discussions about businesses should be more than just citing a few numbers. Same goes for NPD and VGC data. They're all just interesting data points, to be used in a broader discussion. Like I mentioned earlier, even NPD is missing a large chunk of information (digital distribution), so it too needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Well people don't (yet) download consoles which could be considered the most important numbers to track. As far as I remember, people don't download current gen games that are sold at retail, PSP aside. Ironically, we don't know much about retail PSP sales outside of Japan. Or DS retail sales for that matter. When we get good revenue or profit/loss numbers they include any DD titles or sales. It's not like EA is secretly profitable because they can sell DLC for their titles. Neither is Nintendo secretly hurting because they don't do as much DLC as some others. DD is probably a big deal for PC games but we don't sales number for retail PC games either. I'd say that DD is a blind spot, regrettably one of many, but I don't think that DD causes any info we do get to be less reliable. I seriously doubt that it is nearly as important as the lack of data outside the monthly top 10 in the US. No doubt it will become more important over time. --------------------------- As far as the gaf predictions, in my experience you can reliably stay in the top 50 or so with 10 minutes work each month. I'd not say that anyone that can't stay in the top 20 month in month out would have any special insight. Take that for what it's worth.

So ... why is it that we care about these numbers in the first place? Is it because we like to see what sells more? Or is it the business side of things that we're interested about? I'm thinking that the "VG Sales Thread" is a bit of a misnomer, as it's not just sales that we care about, but the overall business (revenue/profit/etc.) that intrigues us. We care because we like to know what does well and what does poorly, because we care about the industry. It's also fun to talk about or discuss why things sold well, or why they sold poorly in our opinions. It's also fun to just see how the market reacts to different things. Sometimes it's fun to analyze data, or make projections or whatever. It's just fun. That's your answer. If you're not posting in this thread because you find it fun in some manner, then I fail to see why you'd bother ever coming in here in the first place Yeah, that was meant to be more of a rhetorical question. I think it's great to have these sorts of discussions, and hopefully come out of them with a better appreciation and understanding of the industry. What I hope it doesn't turn into is the same amateurish fanboy/console-war flame-fest that you can find on countless other message boards and forums. Sometimes we get awfully close to that (and I'm sometimes to blame!), but very glad to see that we're generally pretty mature, wise, and open about things. *group hug* This is the reason I come here. I enjoy talking to you guys about the industry as a whole, and in most cases, we at least try to keep it away from the same flamewar arguments you find elsewhere. I actually really enjoy most of the conversations we have.

Anyway, discussions about businesses should be more than just citing a few numbers. Same goes for NPD and VGC data. They're all just interesting data points, to be used in a broader discussion. Like I mentioned earlier, even NPD is missing a large chunk of information (digital distribution), so it too needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Well people don't (yet) download consoles which could be considered the most important numbers to track. Are console numbers really the most important? I think it's just a small part of the industry, especially when you consider so much of gaming is done on PCs and, increasingly, on the web. Additionally, you've got the thorny situation where the three console holders (MS, Sony, and Nintendo) are all quite different than each other when it comes to their financial situations and their reasons for being in the industry. Nintendo is obviously the most straightforward. Their primary revenue comes from gaming and that's what their main focus is on. Sony and MS are much more complicated. To simplify things, if Sony were to lose a lot of money on the PS3 but more than make it up with Blu-ray royalties and sales, then they might be fine with that, and it might be a good thing for the company overall. (As it turns out, that didn't happen, of course, but c'est la vie) Anyway, that's why I think that the console sales numbers, in particular, are quite tricky to discuss. It isn't the apples-to-apples comparison that some people think it is. Most people in the business and tech industry understand this, but a lot of gamers haven't quite grasped that yet (which is fine, they're not supposed to). As far as I remember, people don't download current gen games that are sold at retail, PSP aside. Ironically, we don't know much about retail PSP sales outside of Japan. Or DS retail sales for that matter. When we get good revenue or profit/loss numbers they include any DD titles or sales. It's not like EA is secretly profitable because they can sell DLC for their titles. Neither is Nintendo secretly hurting because they don't do as much DLC as some others. DD is probably a big deal for PC games but we don't sales number for retail PC games either. I'd say that DD is a blind spot, regrettably one of many, but I don't think that DD causes any info we do get to be less reliable. I seriously doubt that it is nearly as important as the lack of data outside the monthly top 10 in the US. No doubt it will become more important over time. Well ultimately, it's the financial statements which can shed a lot more light on things such as digital distribution and the revenue gained from it. I don't think it causes information to be less reliable, but it means the information we have is less complete than it already is. But yeah, I think we all agree that DLC, subscriptions, microtransactions, etc. are all going to be driving increasing amounts of revenue/profit in the long-term. This is the reason I come here. I enjoy talking to you guys about the industry as a whole, and in most cases, we at least try to keep it away from the same flamewar arguments you find elsewhere. I actually really enjoy most of the conversations we have. Yup! I find it helpful for my line of work as well. Keeping tabs on the business side of things, and having folks to discuss it with, has been very helpful! It may be surprising to some of you, but talk of things like NPD and sales isn't that common here at work. I guess that makes sense ... we're busy working on the product and engineering, leaving it (mostly) to management and the business folks to figure out the financial side of things. That said, I'm finding that having some knowledge of the business-side of things, and being able to talk intelligently about it to my peers (often enlightening them!), has been very helpful and I'm thankful to you guys for that!

Alright, successfully bought a new copy of Bionic Commando and returned it to Best Buy to get my monies back. Anyone made a Gamestop sale thread? I'm curious as to what I'm missing. I'm eyeballing Chrono Trigger, Deadly Creatures, and the Munchables all at $20 each. Any other deals anyone found?

Well there was that B2G1Free deal on DS games at Best Buy, iirc. Also gonna be a B2G1F on Used games for something or oother at Gamestops this week iirc.

Sorry for off-topic, but I couldn't resist the amount of sheer wrong. What are you apologising for? Spamfilter's post was so epically stupid that I would've been pissed if someone didn't disagree with him. lowlylowlycook: There are a bunch of PS3 games that are available through both retail and PSN (including Burnout Paradise, SOCOM Confrontation, GT5 Prologue and Warhawk). And Microsoft will be offering full game downloads pretty soon too. Edit: I forgot to mention that I think Sakaguchi's influence on the FF series is really over-rated and that he barely had any input post-FFV. Kitase meanwhile, co-directed FFVI, co-directed Chrono Trigger and directed FFVII, so I think he's earned his current control over the series. Oh and blaming Nomura is old and tedious. The guy doesn't even have much input into the main games, he's just the character designer.

From a 3 page Gamasutra article on the business of licensing niche Japanese titles for US localization (XSeed, Atlus, Gaijinworks) "For an A or B+ title -- not an AAA title -- it can go anywhere from $100,000 to as high as $800,000 depending on the game," he reports. "That's the minimum guarantee. If the title is a hit, you could wind up paying an additional two to four million dollars in royalties." - Victor Ireland

From a 3 page Gamasutra article on the business of licensing niche Japanese titles for US localization (XSeed, Atlus, Gaijinworks) "For an A or B+ title -- not an AAA title -- it can go anywhere from $100,000 to as high as $800,000 depending on the game," he reports. "That's the minimum guarantee. If the title is a hit, you could wind up paying an additional two to four million dollars in royalties." - Victor Ireland Wow. That's significantly more than the $50 I'll pay for Sky Crawlers. Then again, a couple million isn't a lot compared with developing an A/B title in-house. Hopefully Starfy did well enough here to get TOSE/Nintendo to bring more niche Japan-only titles here.

From a 3 page Gamasutra article on the business of licensing niche Japanese titles for US localization (XSeed, Atlus, Gaijinworks) "For an A or B+ title -- not an AAA title -- it can go anywhere from $100,000 to as high as $800,000 depending on the game," he reports. "That's the minimum guarantee. If the title is a hit, you could wind up paying an additional two to four million dollars in royalties." - Victor Ireland Wow. That's significantly more than the $50 I'll pay for Sky Crawlers. Then again, a couple million isn't a lot compared with developing an A/B title in-house. Hopefully Starfy did well enough here to get TOSE/Nintendo to bring more niche Japan-only titles here. Sky Crawlers is getting localized though.

From a 3 page Gamasutra article on the business of licensing niche Japanese titles for US localization (XSeed, Atlus, Gaijinworks) "For an A or B+ title -- not an AAA title -- it can go anywhere from $100,000 to as high as $800,000 depending on the game," he reports. "That's the minimum guarantee. If the title is a hit, you could wind up paying an additional two to four million dollars in royalties." - Victor Ireland Wow. That's significantly more than the $50 I'll pay for Sky Crawlers. Then again, a couple million isn't a lot compared with developing an A/B title in-house. Hopefully Starfy did well enough here to get TOSE/Nintendo to bring more niche Japan-only titles here. Yeah, I don't really think it sounds that bad. I'm not sure if Victor is even complaining about it but if he is then I'd suggest he harden up. You can't expect developers to spend millions developing it and then reap pure profit off a localisation. If anyone's wondering, Victor Ireland was the president of Working Designs before it closed down.

I hate Working Designs with their shitty topical humor and their slow as shit turn around. I thank Atlus forever and ever for coming around and doing what WD did only one thousand times better when WD finally bit the dust years back. XSEED is trying too much too soon, I fear. I hope they last as the few games I've bought from their label have been pretty well done.

I hate Working Designs with their shitty topical humor and their slow as shit turn around. I thank Atlus forever and ever for coming around and doing what WD did only one thousand times better when WD finally bit the dust years back. I wholeheartedly agree with this. I don't really know much about what Xseed has brought over though, aside from Brave Story: New Traveler.

Then again, a couple million isn't a lot compared with developing an A/B title in-house. As one of the interviewees mentioned, typically they get a chance to play through the game before bidding. I know quality doesn't guarantee sales but getting an advance glance at the finished product along with knowing existing Japanese sales is a nice luxury to have. On another Japan note: Kotaku (via a Japanese site) is reporting Wii Fit Plus, minus board, will retail for ~$21 or 2000 yen. If true then well played, how can an existing Wii Fit owner say no at that price? Impulse buy material. Except it will be $40 and £40 overseas. Also there is a second Tingle DS game coming out. Leave it at that. Sky Crawlers is getting localized though. Heh, judging by his name, location and sig, I think he knows.

I hate Working Designs with their shitty topical humor and their slow as shit turn around. I thank Atlus forever and ever for coming around and doing what WD did only one thousand times better when WD finally bit the dust years back. I wholeheartedly agree with this. I don't really know much about what Xseed has brought over though, aside from Brave Story: New Traveler. Blargh, you guys suck! I still have many a fond memory for the Lunar series.

Lunar 2 was good. What wasn't good was the fact that it took forever to come out. Or that it had fucking Who Wants To Be a Millionaire references. Also that it had a bunch of unpractical shit, like a pendant, cardboard character cut-outs and a hardcover manual.

Lunar 2 was good. What wasn't good was the fact that it took forever to come out. Or that it had fucking Who Wants To Be a Millionaire references. Also that it had a bunch of unpractical shit, like a pendant, cardboard character cut-outs and a hardcover manual. I actually like the topical/localized references. The alternative is getting some sort of obscure Japanese culture reference that we wouldn't understand. As for the pack-ins, I still have my Lunar 2 stuff sitting in a moving box somewhere. As for taking their sweet ass time ... well, yeah. I wonder how much of that was WD versus localization back then versus having to work with the original developer, etc. Localization has gotten a lot easier and faster recently, thanks to a plethora of new tools/techniques, so I do think it's a bit unfair to compare the time it took then to what it takes now.

It would be unfair, except that WD lingered for years after Lunar 2 came out, taking their sweet ass time doing anything, getting cockblocked by SCEA while Atlus trundled along slowly building up steam...and actually getting stuff out.

Xseed is bringing the Lunar PSP port over, correct? Good for Xseed. I like the cut of their jib.

What wasn't good was the fact that it took forever to come out. Or that it had fucking Who Wants To Be a Millionaire references. You realize they just took Japanese pop culture references and replaced them with things we'd understand, right? I mean, as fun as it'd be to play a game where people offhandedly reference [obscure Japanese gameshow] and [Japanese celebrity]...

Lunar 2 was good. What wasn't good was the fact that it took forever to come out. Or that it had fucking Who Wants To Be a Millionaire references. Also that it had a bunch of unpractical shit, like a pendant, cardboard character cut-outs and a hardcover manual. You know, I loved Working Designs localizations at the time, but now that I think about going back to them, it would strike me as going ten years into the future and then trying to watch an episode of Family Guy. I know that they were replacing topical Japanese humor with topical American humor, but it still doesn't age as well as it deserves. The free swag, though, is unassailable. Those hardcover, full-color manuals were beautiful. And let's not forget easily the most awesome preorder bonus ever (though I never got one ):

I hate Working Designs with their shitty topical humor and their slow as shit turn around. I thank Atlus forever and ever for coming around and doing what WD did only one thousand times better when WD finally bit the dust years back. I wholeheartedly agree with this. I don't really know much about what Xseed has brought over though, aside from Brave Story: New Traveler. Blargh, you guys suck! I still have many a fond memory for the Lunar series. Lunar 1 & 2 and Popful Mail were three of the best games that WD brought over for the Sega CD. So shut your hate when it comes to them. Oh, and Atlus and XSeed have both become two of my favorite publishers for their efforts in bringing over games we wouldn't see otherwise. Fragile and Retro Game Challenge come to mind, and now I can't wait for Sky Crawlers. I just wish they could work getting Retro Game Challenge 2 over here.

From a 3 page Gamasutra article on the business of licensing niche Japanese titles for US localization (XSeed, Atlus, Gaijinworks) "For an A or B+ title -- not an AAA title -- it can go anywhere from $100,000 to as high as $800,000 depending on the game," he reports. "That's the minimum guarantee. If the title is a hit, you could wind up paying an additional two to four million dollars in royalties." - Victor Ireland That was a really interesting article. Thanks for linking it! I had no idea that XSeed Games had ex-Square USA staff in it, but that makes a lot of sense.