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 05-19-2009, 12:09 PM
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ElJeffe wrote:

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So, out of curiosity, am I the only one who would prefer the GOP become sane rather than increasingly unhinged? De facto one-party rule isn't all puppies and blowjobs.
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True, but as we're seeing, the GOP in its current form isn't going to become sane. At all. They made the argument that McCain wasn't far-right enough, so in 2012, the far-right will handpick their nominee- Palin, Rush, Gingrich, whatever- and pretty much force it on the moderates whether they like it or not. And when- not if, when- Obama skullcracks that nominee at the polls, the far-right has no excuses. Or at least, none they will be able to use and have people take them seriously. Until that, this is going to continue.
From there, one of two things will happen:
1. The far-right is forced into at least some form of capitulation, having been soundly defeated three, possibly four times at the polls in the span of eight years (pending 2010 results). No amount of glossing-over is going to mitigate the damage to their policy positions. By this time the older members of the far-right will have retired or died, and younger moderates begin to take the party back.
2. The Dems will have so thoroughly crushed the GOP- three, possibly four times in the span of eight years (pending 2010)- that the far-right simply ceases to be a viable political entity. Anyone remotely moderate will have fled to the Dems, and the Dems, by this time probably at a two-thirds majority in the Senate, will simply wait for the GOP, out of ideas and unwilling to produce new ones, to go the way of the Whigs. Then we wait for the Blue Dogs break off over some issue or other, and the two-party system reasserts itself.
It's that two-thirds margin that's the one to watch. All manner of power flows to a side that can get two-thirds- 67 Senate seats. You can veto bills, convict an impeached President, expel someone from the Senate, etc. Once that mark is hit, then the death of the minority party becomes a real possibility, and at the rate we're going, it may only be a few cycles away. |
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