I feel like Elon wouldn't go into politics unless it was for President and he's not a native born citizen so he's disqualified there. I never took Kanye's political asperations seriously; it seemed more like a publicity stunt more than anything. (He wasn't even on the ballot in every state, right?)
Trump vs DeSantis will come entirely down to whether or not Trump's base are married to him, or just to his rhetoric. If they feel they can get the things they like out of Trump from DeSantis, without having to defend a constant stream of dipshittery, they could move on.
Remember, Trump doesn't control his base as much as he would like to think he does. Dude spent all of Covid hyping up his super awesome warp speed vaccine program, and still wound up getting booed at a rally when he suggested people get vaccinated "if they feel like it." So now he has to keep mum about something that he wanted lots of kudos for, and you can bet that DeSantis is going to bait the shit out of him for it.
All of his base, no. Enough of his base to cost DeSantis the presidency? I'm thinking maybe. The key issue is where those people are. Losing 10% of Republicans due to Trumpism in Alabama is different to losing 10% of Republicans to Trumpism in Arizona. The first means he wins by 25pts instead of 30pts. The second means he loses the state.
The problem for DeSantis is between the people that'd follow Trump's lead, and Trump himself just trashing DeSantis on the public stage, the margin might be enough to sink a DeSantis campaign.
Because the media are absolutely going to amplify the orange foghorn, and as we've seen for a while now, the bleating doesn't need to be true, it just needs to be constant, and it becomes accepted as true.
For DeSantis to win, he needs to make sure Trump is OK with him winning, and I'm not sure that's possible.