Club PA 2.0 has arrived! If you'd like to access some extra PA content and help support the forums, check it out at patreon.com/ClubPA
The image size limit has been raised to 1mb! Anything larger than that should be linked to. This is a HARD limit, please do not abuse it.
Our new Indie Games subforum is now open for business in G&T. Go and check it out, you might land a code for a free game. If you're developing an indie game and want to post about it, follow these directions. If you don't, he'll break your legs! Hahaha! Seriously though.
Our rules have been updated and given their own forum. Go and look at them! They are nice, and there may be new ones that you didn't know about! Hooray for rules! Hooray for The System! Hooray for Conforming!

ITT Asteroid Apocalypse

electricitylikesmeelectricitylikesme Registered User regular
edited December 2009 in Debate and/or Discourse
Does anyone know any more about this?

Russian scientists will soon meet in secret to work on a plan for saving Earth from a possible catastrophic collision with a giant asteroid in 26 years, the head of Russia's space agency said on Wednesday.

"We will soon hold a closed meeting of our collegium, the science-technical council to look at what can be done" to prevent the asteroid Apophis from slamming into the planet in 2036, Anatoly Perminov told Voice of Russia radio.

"We are talking about people's lives," Perminov was quoted by news agencies as telling the radio station.

"Better to spend a few hundred million dollars to create a system for preventing a collision than to wait until it happens and hundreds of thousands of people are killed," he said.

The Apophis asteroid measures approximately 350 metres in diameter and RIA Novosti news agency said that if it were to hit Earth when it passes nearby in 2036 it would create a new desert the size of France.

Perminov said a serious plan to prevent such a catastrophe would probably be an international project involving Russian, European, US and Chinese space experts.

Interfax quoted him as saying that one option would be to build a new "space apparatus" designed solely for the purpose of diverting Apophis from a collision course with Earth safely.

"There won't be any nuclear explosions," Perminov said. "Everything will be done according to the laws of physics. We will examine all of this."

In a statement dated from October and posted on its website, the US space agency NASA said new calculations on the path of Apophis indicated "a significantly reduced likelihood of a hazardous encounter with Earth in 2036."

"Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a-million," NASA said.

RIA Novosti said the asteroid was expected to pass within 30,000km of Earth in 2029 - closer than some geo-stationary satellites - and could shift course to hit Earth seven years after that.

AFP

It sounds like, essentially, it's not a threat, but its nice to know someone is thinking about this sort of thing. Also because we'd get some cool space technology from the exercise to let us do other things, like crash it into Venus.

electricitylikesme on

Posts

  • wwtMaskwwtMask Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Sure, that sounds awesome. Until the Venusians invade us for attacking them!

    Seriously, I guess it's a worthwhile effort because it'll provide a working framework for when an actual Armaggedon object shows up.

    wwtMask on
    When he dies, I hope they write "Worst Affirmative Action Hire, EVER" on his grave. His corpse should be trolled.
    Twitter - @liberaltruths | Google+ - http://gplus.to/wwtMask | Occupy Tallahassee
  • electricitylikesmeelectricitylikesme Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    It's the kind of thing that's been talked about for a long time with very little practical technology. About the only thing anyone can agree upon is that nuking something ranges from little effect to no effect, and I believe most of the serious proposals tend to involve doing a very small action while it's at a distance - either by landing something on it, slamming something into it, or the cool gravity tether concept where you put a probe in front of it to drag it (which I suppose would have the benefit of being approximately independant of the rotation and orientation of the thing).

    There were some interesting simulations I believe where they found that based on the construction of most asteroids, even a nuke drilled into the surface might be ineffective since a lot of asteroids are "rubble piles" where they're lots of small bits which can soak up the shockwave of a nuclear explosion quite effectively.

    electricitylikesme on
  • CherrnCherrn Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    IIRC, it has been calculated to create about crater around the same size of the Tunguska event, and it has been known about for quite some time (it was featured in Carl Sagan's Cosmos around 30 years ago).

    Anyway, the chance it's going to hit is minute, and even then it could potentially land in some uninhabited place in the middle of Russia.

    Cherrn on
    All creature will die and all the things will be broken. That's the law of samurai.
  • The_ScarabThe_Scarab Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Cherrn wrote: »
    IIRC, it has been calculated to create about crater around the same size of the Tunguska event, and it has been known about for quite some time (it was featured in Carl Sagan's Cosmos around 30 years ago).

    Anyway, the chance it's going to hit is minute, and even then it could potentially land in some uninhabited place in the middle of Russia.

    No the tunguska event was ~3 megatons, apophis is closer to a thousand megatons.

    it will fuck you up.

    The_Scarab on
    scarab you have mental problems
  • electricitylikesmeelectricitylikesme Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Just say gigaton, gigaton sounds cooler.

    electricitylikesme on
  • CherrnCherrn Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Ah, you're right. I must've misread it. Wikipedia page, by the way:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

    Impact-line:

    800px-2037_Apophis_Path_of_Risk.jpg

    Cherrn on
    All creature will die and all the things will be broken. That's the law of samurai.
  • HavelockHavelock Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Oh good. It'll miss California if it hits.

    Havelock on
  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    25 years is plenty of time to find some off-shore drillers and train them to be astronauts.

    Tomanta on
  • SniperGuySniperGuy Also known as Dohaeris Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Oh, man. That doesn't hit anywhere we really care about. Sarah Palin might not be able to see Russia anymore, but she could see the crater.

    SniperGuy on
    Twitch Streaming T/W/TH and more
    Dohaeris210 on PSN / SniperGuy710 on Xbone Live
    Me on Steam
  • Loren MichaelLoren Michael Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Man, nothing ever hits Michigan. :x

    Loren Michael on
    2ezikn6.jpg
  • SanderJKSanderJK Crocodylus Pontifex Sinterklasicus Madrid, 3000 ADRegistered User regular
    edited December 2009
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaW4Ol3_M1o

    Awesome astronomer explains why it briefly was a deal, could've been a major deal, but isn't anymore.

    EDIT: I remember wrong, this is from nearer to it's discovery, this doesn't include the "too bad it's not going to happen" bit that came later. The thing has been downgraded.

    It's still pretty scary how close it's going to get.

    SanderJK on
    Steam: SanderJK Origin: SanderJK
  • ShadowfireShadowfire Vermont, in the middle of nowhereRegistered User regular
    edited December 2009
    <3 Neil DeGrasse Tyson.

    Shadowfire on
    WiiU: Windrunner ; Guild Wars 2: Shadowfire.3940 ; PSN: Bradcopter
  • wwtMaskwwtMask Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    The idea of blowing the thing up with a nuke is stupid. It'd be more worthwhile to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it into the Sun.

    wwtMask on
    When he dies, I hope they write "Worst Affirmative Action Hire, EVER" on his grave. His corpse should be trolled.
    Twitter - @liberaltruths | Google+ - http://gplus.to/wwtMask | Occupy Tallahassee
  • ShadowfireShadowfire Vermont, in the middle of nowhereRegistered User regular
    edited December 2009
    wwtMask wrote: »
    The idea of blowing the thing up with a nuke is stupid. It'd be more worthwhile to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it into the Sun.

    I think it'd be easier to guide it a degree off course so it misses us. I can't imagine the amount of energy needed to completely shift the course into the sun. Sounds complicated. :P

    Shadowfire on
    WiiU: Windrunner ; Guild Wars 2: Shadowfire.3940 ; PSN: Bradcopter
  • Loren MichaelLoren Michael Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    wwtMask wrote: »
    The idea of blowing the thing up with a nuke is stupid. It'd be more worthwhile to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it into the Sun.

    That's not very cool though. There's no fist-pumping "fuck YEAH!" moment. Just a "bloop" as it plops into the sun.

    Loren Michael on
    2ezikn6.jpg
  • wwtMaskwwtMask Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Shadowfire wrote: »
    wwtMask wrote: »
    The idea of blowing the thing up with a nuke is stupid. It'd be more worthwhile to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it into the Sun.

    I think it'd be easier to guide it a degree off course so it misses us. I can't imagine the amount of energy needed to completely shift the course into the sun. Sounds complicated. :P

    I'd normally agree, but shifting it off course would have to be precise enough to make sure we're not just putting off the danger for some time in the future. It'd just vaporize in the sun.

    wwtMask on
    When he dies, I hope they write "Worst Affirmative Action Hire, EVER" on his grave. His corpse should be trolled.
    Twitter - @liberaltruths | Google+ - http://gplus.to/wwtMask | Occupy Tallahassee
  • EgoEgo Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    I, for one, think this is all totally awesome. 1 in 250,000? That's pretty good odds, so I vote we get excited about this and build cool new rockets and divert an asteroid just so we know we can. As far as being a meaningful space-faring species is concerned, surely being able to do this is like, step 1.

    Ego on
    Erik
  • Emissary42Emissary42 Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    From what I recall, the impact damage would effectively destroy an area the size of France (it wouldn't produce a crater that big, though). The equivalent in terms of nuclear blasts is around 880 megatons, and the total US arsenal is equal to 1400 megatons. In actuality, an ocean impact would be probably worse in terms of overall damage due to a very large tsunami along with the dust cloud that would linger for a good long while in the upper atmosphere.

    Still, it's a fairly low chance of impact now. NASA is actually kinda interested in taking advantage of the fact that it's going to be so close to land a probe on it and hitch-hike around the solar system. But, if you really did want to deflect it further, either a mass driver (automated catapult or magnetic cannon with a shovel to feed it material) or ion engine would do the trick with a decade to spare.

    Emissary42 on
  • Hexmage-PAHexmage-PA Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    We should build a rocket propulsion system all along one hemisphere of the Earth and push ourselves out of the way. As a plus we could push ourselves into an orbit that will produce an ideal climate for us.

    Hexmage-PA on
    Friend Code: 1590-5696-7916
    Friend Safari Type: Rock
  • wwtMaskwwtMask Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Hexmage-PA wrote: »
    We should build a rocket propulsion system all along one hemisphere of the Earth and push ourselves out of the way. As a plus we could push ourselves into an orbit that will produce an ideal climate for us.

    We...we're already at that orbit. This is a singularly terrible idea. Yes, I know that you're joking.

    I vote that, instead of blowing it up, we build a space colony on and inside the asteroid. The only thing missing would be a mutant terrorist organization and a master of magnetism.

    wwtMask on
    When he dies, I hope they write "Worst Affirmative Action Hire, EVER" on his grave. His corpse should be trolled.
    Twitter - @liberaltruths | Google+ - http://gplus.to/wwtMask | Occupy Tallahassee
  • ZombiemamboZombiemambo Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    I hope that it does, so we can all just have 26 years of partying. Fuck politics, it's all going to end anyway! Spend all of our money on booze and hookers!

    Zombiemambo on
    JKKaAGp.png
  • Hexmage-PAHexmage-PA Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    wwtMask wrote: »
    Hexmage-PA wrote: »
    We should build a rocket propulsion system all along one hemisphere of the Earth and push ourselves out of the way. As a plus we could push ourselves into an orbit that will produce an ideal climate for us.

    We...we're already at that orbit. This is a singularly terrible idea.

    But what about global warming? We could just nudge the Earth a bit over a prolonged period of time to cancel the effects of climate change out. Science totally works that way!

    Hexmage-PA on
    Friend Code: 1590-5696-7916
    Friend Safari Type: Rock
  • HavelockHavelock Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    wwtMask wrote: »
    The idea of blowing the thing up with a nuke is stupid. It'd be more worthwhile to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it into the Sun.

    I'd love for us to be able to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it to a Lagrangian point, stabilize it in place, and later use it as a colony or something to put people on. Probably not practical in the slightest, but it sounds cool.

    Havelock on
  • Emissary42Emissary42 Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Havelock wrote: »
    wwtMask wrote: »
    The idea of blowing the thing up with a nuke is stupid. It'd be more worthwhile to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it into the Sun.

    I'd love for us to be able to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it to a Lagrangian point, stabilize it in place, and later use it as a colony or something to put people on. Probably not practical in the slightest, but it sounds cool.

    Maybe you could nudge it to enter a lunar orbit...

    Emissary42 on
  • wwtMaskwwtMask Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Hexmage-PA wrote: »
    wwtMask wrote: »
    Hexmage-PA wrote: »
    We should build a rocket propulsion system all along one hemisphere of the Earth and push ourselves out of the way. As a plus we could push ourselves into an orbit that will produce an ideal climate for us.

    We...we're already at that orbit. This is a singularly terrible idea.

    But what about global warming? We could just nudge the Earth a bit over a prolonged period of time to cancel the effects of climate change out. Science totally works that way!

    Sadly, there are probably some people who think this is a better and more feasible idea than just reducing the carbon output of humanity.

    Havelock: where would the asteroid go, though? Halfway between us and Mars?

    wwtMask on
    When he dies, I hope they write "Worst Affirmative Action Hire, EVER" on his grave. His corpse should be trolled.
    Twitter - @liberaltruths | Google+ - http://gplus.to/wwtMask | Occupy Tallahassee
  • Emissary42Emissary42 Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Hexmage-PA wrote: »
    wwtMask wrote: »
    Hexmage-PA wrote: »
    We should build a rocket propulsion system all along one hemisphere of the Earth and push ourselves out of the way. As a plus we could push ourselves into an orbit that will produce an ideal climate for us.

    We...we're already at that orbit. This is a singularly terrible idea.

    But what about global warming? We could just nudge the Earth a bit over a prolonged period of time to cancel the effects of climate change out. Science totally works that way!

    Alternatively, we could let it hit us and have the dust cloud solve the problem. The question is, where would the best spot for the crater be... nudge it into an orbit that impacts the center of the Sahara?
    edit: yes, I'm being sarcastic.

    Emissary42 on
  • JoolanderJoolander Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Come on guys, they did it on Futurama, and they got Robot Party Week as a result

    Joolander on
  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Joolander wrote: »
    Come on guys, they did it on Futurama, and they got Robot Party Week as a result

    This is actually a good idea. We must keep our potential robot overlords happy, lest they turn on us.

    Tomanta on
  • GreasyKidsStuffGreasyKidsStuff MOMMM! ROAST BEEF WANTS TO KISS GIRLS ON THE TITTIES!Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Can anybody explain what the long term effects are if it does hit, ocean or otherwise? Are we fucked?

    GreasyKidsStuff on
  • Salvation122Salvation122 Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    MH79 wrote: »
    Can anybody explain what the long term effects are if it does hit, ocean or otherwise? Are we fucked?

    Well economically yes if not environmentally.

    The western seaboard would basically cease to exist.

    Salvation122 on
    sig.png
  • L|amaL|ama Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Ignoring amerocentrism, it depends where it hits. The middle of the ocean is the better scenario - you'll get some tsunami and a bit of dust in the atmosphere causing some cooling, and a few unlucky fishermen/container ships. If it hits on land you will have a fuckload of dust getting thrown into the upper atmosphere that will take a long time to come down and cause global cooling.

    Looking at the wikipedia article for apophis though, it seems like it's to small to cause a considerable amount of dust to enter the atmosphere so it won't cause much global cooling, so really the effects would just be complete destruction of a fairly large area.

    L|ama on
  • Kayne Red RobeKayne Red Robe Master of Magic ArcanusRegistered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Upside: If it hits Nicaragua, the US will be able to build bigger battleships.

    Kayne Red Robe on
  • L|amaL|ama Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Downside: Battleships haven't been useful since WW1 if not before (or ever). Your carriers aren't even Panamax limited any more are they?

    L|ama on
  • MKRMKR Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    L|ama wrote: »
    Ignoring amerocentrism, it depends where it hits. The middle of the ocean is the better scenario - you'll get some tsunami and a bit of dust in the atmosphere causing some cooling, and a few unlucky fishermen/container ships. If it hits on land you will have a fuckload of dust getting thrown into the upper atmosphere that will take a long time to come down and cause global cooling.

    Looking at the wikipedia article for apophis though, it seems like it's to small to cause a considerable amount of dust to enter the atmosphere so it won't cause much global cooling, so really the effects would just be complete destruction of a fairly large area.

    An asteroid can rip right through 7 miles (deepest) of ocean without much trouble if it's heavy enough. Hitting in the water won't help any since it'll still kick dust into the atmosphere.

    MKR on
  • LuvTheMonkeyLuvTheMonkey High Sierra Serenade Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Unfortunately the Russians are being dumb about this (at least Apophis specifically).

    Torino scale ratings for known asteroids. Chances of Apophis hitting us between 2036 and 2103 are 1 in 135,000, putting it at a Torino rating of zero!

    Now, if the Russians want to strap some rockets on it and park it orbit so we can mine the shit out of it, that'd be an awesome idea.

    LuvTheMonkey on
    Molten variables hiss and roar. On my mind-forge, I hammer them into the greatsword Epistemology. Many are my foes this night.
    STEAM | GW2: Thalys
  • L|amaL|ama Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    It's going to be sinking energy into the ocean as it goes deeper though, and the dust mainly comes from smashed up earth rock more than the asteroid itself. Another aspect of that is it causing huge forest fires, which is also averted by hitting the ocean.


    Yeah apophis doesn't really pose much of a threat, but having a plan ready to go for something similar would make me a little happier.

    L|ama on
  • ForarForar #432 Toronto, Ontario, CanadaRegistered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Havelock wrote: »
    wwtMask wrote: »
    The idea of blowing the thing up with a nuke is stupid. It'd be more worthwhile to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it into the Sun.

    I'd love for us to be able to strap a propulsion system onto it and guide it to a Lagrangian point, stabilize it in place, and later use it as a colony or something to put people on. Probably not practical in the slightest, but it sounds cool.

    Time to finally get started on that space elevator!

    Forar on
    First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
  • GungHoGungHo Registered User regular
    edited December 2009
    Finally, a way to get rid of Hugo Chavez.

    GungHo on
    "Adios, mofo" -- TX Gov Rick Perry (R)
Sign In or Register to comment.