Another "Analysts = Retard Rodeo" thread

BTP

Sauce

I could paste the whole article, where they talk about how they think the next five years in the console gaming world will go, but let's just get down to the stats they list since that's probably all we'll care about.

The cumulative NORTH AMERICAN sales for each platform are as follows:

Xbox 360
2006: 6.0m
2007: 12.7m
2008: 19.5m
2009: 24.9m
2010: 29.4m

PlayStation 3
2006: 0.5m
2007: 7.6m
2008: 13.8m
2009: 19.5m
2010: 24.2m

Nintendo Wii
2006: 2.0m
2007: 5.3m
2008: 8.6m
2009: 11.4m
2010: 13.5m



The cumulative WORLDWIDE sales for each platform are as follows:

Sony PlayStation 3
2006: 1.0m
2007: 19.5m
2008: 35.5m
2009: 50m
2010: 62m

Xbox 360
2006: 10m
2007: 20.5m
2008: 30.5m
2009: 39m
2010: 46m

Nintendo Wii
2006: 4.0M
2007: 10.5m
2008: 16.5m
2009: 21.5m
2010: 25.0m

Next-Gen doesn't describe how SFG Research came to these conclusion, nor does it give a reference link (but then I don't know if we, the normal people in the public, can even read the full report). Meh.

But seriously, how can they come up with this stuff? Is there something in the water........and sugar and coffee and milk and salt and toilet paper?

PS3 to nearly tie 360 WW in one year, and 62 million sold by 2010? Wii only doing as well as Gamecube did? Are they expecting everyone to go nuts for HD-DVD/Blu-Ray?

Let's figure this one out.

Daedalus

The analyist is saying that everything will happen the same as last gen.

Of course, if he was around during the PS1/N64/Saturn gen, he'd predict that the N64 be a raging success, the Saturn showing a close second, and the PS1 as a dismal failure.

freshmasterfresh

They're just a bunch of people who think they can predict the future using previous market trends.

Who gives a flying fuck what they say. I'll tell you right now what my purchasing statistics are going to look like:

Xbox 360
2006: 1

Wii
2007: 1

PlayStation 3
2069: 0

Marathon

So the PS3 will double its sales between 2007 and 2008 to 13.8 million while the Wii will only go from 5.3 to 8.6 million in that same timeframe. I quit reading there because of all the stupid.

Vargas Prime

BTP wrote:

Is there something in the water........and sugar and coffee and milk and salt and toilet paper?

No... all that shit is in their brains.

It's all speculation, based on past performance of the companies' other machines, and current sales, and upcoming orders... It means NOTHING.

Why the fuck should it matter to any of us what the consoles are selling in 2010? Just buy the one(s) you want and be happy. The industry will trudge along.

darleysam

honestly, in the grand scale of things, i do believe that the PS3 will still leave this generation with the most sales. Call it the 'winner' if you will (i don't like that anymore, i enjoy playing good games wherever i find them, i'm not out for one company to go out of business). I firmly don't believe the margin will be anywhere near the last generation, it'll be a much more even split between the PS3 and 360. I disagree with the Wii sales estimates, and probably the overall number of consoles sold there, but i reckon they're right with their predictions that the PS3 and 360 will be closer.

redhalo

I lol'd

volluspa

Have we all not had enough thread of people trying to justify how the console that they have selected and invested in will ultimately rule superior? I mean seriously, these are not muscle cars and the companies are not GM, Chevrolet and Ford, just play your damn video games.

mrcheesypants

Vargas Prime wrote:

BTP wrote:

Is there something in the water........and sugar and coffee and milk and salt and toilet paper?

No... all that shit is in their brains.

It's all speculation, based on past performance of the companies' other machines, and current sales, and upcoming orders... It means NOTHING.

Why the fuck should it matter to any of us what the consoles are selling in 2010? Just buy the one(s) you want and be happy. The industry will trudge along.

The only LOGICAL reason why people should care is more sales for a console could mean more devs for the console.

But logic in a "console war" discussion? OLOLZ

redhalo

darleysam wrote:

honestly, in the grand scale of things, i do believe that the PS3 will still leave this generation with the most sales. Call it the 'winner' if you will (i don't like that anymore, i enjoy playing good games wherever i find them, i'm not out for one company to go out of business). I firmly don't believe the margin will be anywhere near the last generation, it'll be a much more even split between the PS3 and 360. I disagree with the Wii sales estimates, and probably the overall number of consoles sold there, but i reckon they're right with their predictions that the PS3 and 360 will be closer.

You sir are mad...mad I say.

mausmalone

mrcheesypants wrote:

Vargas Prime wrote:

BTP wrote:

Is there something in the water........and sugar and coffee and milk and salt and toilet paper?

No... all that shit is in their brains.

It's all speculation, based on past performance of the companies' other machines, and current sales, and upcoming orders... It means NOTHING.

Why the fuck should it matter to any of us what the consoles are selling in 2010? Just buy the one(s) you want and be happy. The industry will trudge along.

The only LOGICAL reason why people should care is more sales for a console could mean more devs for the console.

But logic in a "console war" discussion? OLOLZ

The only thing maddening about their predictions is that they're brainless "LOLZ teh trend will continue!" predictions, and every person involved in making those predictions probably makes a six-figure salary.

And that when those predictions are way off (and they will be, because this is like trying to throw a playing card at a knife and have it split long-ways) they're not going to have to give their disproportionately large salaries back.

ToadTheMushroom

freshmasterfresh wrote:

They're just a bunch of people who think they can predict the future using previous market trends.

Who gives a flying fuck what they say. I'll tell you right now what my purchasing statistics are going to look like:

Xbox 360
2006: 1

Wii
2007: 1

PlayStation 3
2069: 0

For truth.

I hate these analyst threads. Because every prediction is pulled out of someones ass anyways.

Plus, you know, where is the Phantom on that list? Or the DS, or any other consoles. Its so limiting just having those 3 consoles, when in fact I'd argue the DS is selling better than most.

darleysam

redhalo wrote:

darleysam wrote:

honestly, in the grand scale of things, i do believe that the PS3 will still leave this generation with the most sales. Call it the 'winner' if you will (i don't like that anymore, i enjoy playing good games wherever i find them, i'm not out for one company to go out of business). I firmly don't believe the margin will be anywhere near the last generation, it'll be a much more even split between the PS3 and 360. I disagree with the Wii sales estimates, and probably the overall number of consoles sold there, but i reckon they're right with their predictions that the PS3 and 360 will be closer.

You sir are mad...mad I say.

maybe.. but who drives the fishbike on a sunday? ON A SUNDAY!!?

Kriz

darleysam wrote:

maybe.. but who drives the fishbike on a sunday? ON A SUNDAY!!?

moron trying and failing to be funny-internet-random says what?

*sniff sniff* that smells suspiciously like the mad ravings of one mister Tim Buckley.

cloudeagle

Analysts are good for immediate information, like component costs, current sales figures and board room whisperings.

But when it comes to future predictions they get quite a bit silly.

Rook

Vargas Prime wrote:

Why the fuck should it matter to any of us what the consoles are selling in 2010? Just buy the one(s) you want and be happy. The industry will trudge along.

Kinda matters to anyone that bought a Dreamcast.

Eteric

I should buy stock in Nintendo, seriously. That way I can bitch about how I want the Wii to win, and have a good reason for it.

darleysam

Kriz wrote:

darleysam wrote:

maybe.. but who drives the fishbike on a sunday? ON A SUNDAY!!?

moron trying and failing to be funny-internet-random says what?

*sniff sniff* that smells suspiciously like the mad ravings of one mister Tim Buckley.

what? :roll:
and, no, i don't go near CAD.

Delzhand

Analysts are wrong so often it's a wonder it's still considered a legitimate business. We don't pay fortune-tellers anymore to prognosticate our business decisions, why should we pay a new generation to make predictions and then come up with believable reasons to support that and ignore anything contrary?

Accualt

We should become an Analyst group, guys. Popular Analyst co, or some such. We could collectively predict the future and then sell these detailed predictions to companies!

JihadJesus

The Warlock wrote:

The analyist is saying that everything will happen the same as last gen.

Of course, if he was around during the PS1/N64/Saturn gen, he'd predict that the N64 be a raging success, the Saturn showing a close second, and the PS1 as a dismal failure.

I can see where that comes from, though. The econometric models are probably derived largely from the patterns of the previous console iterations and almost certainly place more emphasis on previous marketshare than the SNES to N64 generational shift should show to be reasonable.

Rook

Delzhand wrote:

Analysts are wrong so often it's a wonder it's still considered a legitimate business. We don't pay fortune-tellers anymore to prognosticate our business decisions, why should we pay a new generation to make predictions and then come up with believable reasons to support that and ignore anything contrary?

I can't tell whether this post is sarcasm or not. If it is, I apologise. But the obvious answer is because everytime they're not wrong, they're right, and earn a lot of people a lot of money.

Dareth Ram

My analyst prediction is Sony will cry the tears of forever in 2007.

Feral

Delzhand wrote:

Analysts are wrong so often it's a wonder it's still considered a legitimate business. We don't pay fortune-tellers anymore to prognosticate our business decisions, why should we pay a new generation to make predictions and then come up with believable reasons to support that and ignore anything contrary?

It's not for you.

Hate to spoil your fun, guys, but analysts are right more often than they're wrong. And sometimes when they're wrong, they come close. The point of analysts is to tell stockbrokers and fund managers and investment bankers where to put their money, and these people aren't reading one analyst report and putting all their money into Sony. They're reading several analyst reports on each industry, and again for several different industries, and arranging their stocks accordingly. Taken in aggregate with dozens or even hundreds of reports they let a professional financier (you know, somebody who's trained to read these) make educated decisions.

Analyst reports aren't meant for public consumption. This is like watching somebody fire an Uzi, then going over and tripping out that one bullet hole missed the target and going, "Man, why would anybody waste their time on Uzis? Look how far in left field this one bullet hole is!"

The real retard here is Next Gen, reporting on an analyst report as if it were news.

ToadTheMushroom

Accualt wrote:

We should become an Analyst group, guys. Popular Analyst co, or some such. We could collectively predict the future and then sell these detailed predictions to companies!

I predict that you wont buy the phantom in a shop, you will download it and it will slowly materialise in your lounge as it downloads.

Only it will get stuck at 95% or something and you will be left without a controller.

OH SHI-

redhalo

Dareth Ram wrote:

My analyst prediction is Sony will cry the tears of forever in 2007.

I'd hire ya. :P

Aioua

ToadTheMushroom wrote:

For truth.

I hate these analyst threads. Because every prediction is pulled out of someones ass anyways.

Plus, you know, where is the Phantom on that list? Or the DS, or any other consoles. Its so limiting just having those 3 consoles, when in fact I'd argue the DS is selling better than most.

Phantom's there. 0 consoles. You don't need to write the name.

Endomatic

I refuse to believe that the Wii would sell so little. It's the most non-gamer friendly console out there. That's gonna count for a lot I think. Converting many to the gamer ways.