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It's the [Economy Thread], Stu... Silly Goose!

HeartlashHeartlash Registered User regular
edited February 2010 in Debate and/or Discourse
This thread is for the discussion of economics, macro and micro, with particular emphasis on the current US economy. Likewise, discussion of the global economy or those of specific non-US countries is certainly acceptable.

To get the ball rolling. The AP is reporting that last Q 2k9 the US economy experienced the largest growth since 2003, increasing 5.7%. This was the second quarter in a row of growth following 4 straight quarters of decline:

Article
Growth exceeded expectations mainly because business spending on equipment and software jumped 13.3 percent -- much more than forecast. It's the second quarter in a row that business spending has increased, after six quarters of decline.

The report provided an upbeat end to an otherwise dismal year: The nation's economy declined 2.4 percent in 2009, the largest drop since 1946. That's the first annual decline since 1991.

Still, economists expect growth to slow this year as companies finish restocking inventories and as government stimulus efforts fade. Many estimate the nation's gross domestic product will grow about 2.5 percent to 3 percent in the current quarter and about 2.5 percent or below this year.

That won't be fast enough to reduce the unemployment rate, now 10 percent. Most analysts expect it to keep rising for several months and remain close to 10 percent through the end of the year.

High unemployment is likely to keep consumers cautious about spending. Without strong consumer spending, economists worry the recovery could falter.

"That's why there's so much hand-wringing right now," said Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist for IHS Global Insight. "Can the economy really sustain this? That's the big question mark sitting out there."

Still, it's a "surprisingly good report," Bethune said, with several factors contributing to growth, including a rapid rise in exports and business investment.

...

Now, obviously we're in recovery mode, so such growth is to be expected. Still, it's hard to measure any sort of progress while unemployment is hanging around 10%. The traditional lag for job growth can be really brutal. Even so, knowing that businesses have something to feel confident about can be a boon on whether or not they start hiring. So we're ultimately left with the question: are things really starting to get better? Is the worst of the recession over? Or is this just a "recovery bubble"?

BTW, don't read the comments on some of these articles, yeesh. When the economy is failing it's Obama's fault, when it's improving the improvement "isn't real".

And here's a gem provided by Saammiel:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk

My indie mobile gaming studio: Elder Aeons
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Heartlash on
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Posts

  • DmanDman Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    You should change the thread title to It's the [Economy Thread], you silly goose.

    I think the world is scheduled for GDP growth in 2010 across the board but if people are still out of jobs they aren't really going to care.

    Dman on
  • SyphonBlueSyphonBlue Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Heartlash wrote: »
    To get the ball rolling. The AP is reporting that last Q 2k9 the US economy experienced the largest growth since 2003, increasing 5.7%. This was the second quarter in a row of growth following 4 straight quarters of decline:

    OBAMA IS RUINING THE ECONOMY WITH THIS TAX AND SPEND GET THE GOVERNMENT OUT OF THERE WE NEED MORE BUSH TAX CUTS COMMON SENSE SOLUTIONS LOOK AT MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

    SyphonBlue on
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  • SaammielSaammiel Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    I'm not really sure if our growth going forward will be sustained or if this is a one off increase. I haven't looked at any of the various numbers that commonly indicate such trends. Consensus on our economic efforts so far is that the stimulus was both too small and wasted too much. Cash for clunkers as an example I think turned out to be a rather poor idea. It stimulated short term demand primarily by robbing long term demand. So it didn't effect a net increase in aggregate automobile demand over a few months. I'll see if I can dig up a link for that later.

    As a tangent, but related to the overall theme of economics, I never understood the undue hand wringing about the US debt load. Yes, it can act as a drag on growth by turning government spending from welfare spending and infrastructure. No, our debt load isn't that outrageous. Plus right now we control the global currency. If shit really hit the fan we can inflate away the debt. It wouldn't be pretty, but it is an option.

    Know who is really goosed? Japan. Jesus. They have been in a prolonged death spiral since 1990, although that death spiral gave us some insight into how to handle the current troubles I guess. Debt as a percentage of GDP is something like 200% (I think the US' debt load is about 80% of GDP). They have a looming demographic crisis and they have a problem with increasing youth disenfranchisement in the economy.

    Saammiel on
  • themightypuckthemightypuck MontanaRegistered User regular
    edited January 2010
    If unemployment is at 10% in 2012, Obama will lose to anybody. This means Sarah Palin could actually become POTUS. On the other hand, if unemployment is 6% in 2012, Obama will beat anybody including a ticket of God and Jesus. As for a recovery "bubble" it is way too soon to make such statements. It is easy to get a quarterly anomaly. Give me two quarters of solid GDP growth and I'll be happy.

    themightypuck on
    “Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.”
    ― Marcus Aurelius

    Path of Exile: themightypuck
  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    So it's pretty safe to call "recession over" as of two quarters ago. Nice.

    EDIT: Official graph.
    gdp_large.gif

    That's two quarters of nice growth right there.

    enc0re on
  • ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    "Growth" doesn't really help people who are out of jobs. I haven't heard of the market improving much here, anyway.

    Thanatos on
  • bowenbowen How you doin'? Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Yeah but I also haven't heard of the market really tanking anywhere either.

    bowen on
    not a doctor, not a lawyer, examples I use may not be fully researched so don't take out of context plz, don't @ me
  • SyphonBlueSyphonBlue Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Once people start spending more, that means people are buying more which means more needs to get sold/made which means hiring more people to sell/make those things.

    It's like Reaganomics, except the opposite, and it actually works.

    SyphonBlue on
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    PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Thanatos wrote: »
    "Growth" doesn't really help people who are out of jobs. I haven't heard of the market improving much here, anyway.

    Who gives a fuck as long as rich people are getting rich again

    isn't that what really matters?

    nexuscrawler on
  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    No doubt the unemployment rate dropping is important to people's welfare. However, usually the economy has to have passed from recession to expansion before it starts dropping. So this is a great sign and first step.

    enc0re on
  • The Crowing OneThe Crowing One Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Thanatos wrote: »
    "Growth" doesn't really help people who are out of jobs. I haven't heard of the market improving much here, anyway.

    Who gives a fuck as long as rich people are getting rich again

    isn't that what really matters?

    Sorry, but my cynicism is going crazy today.

    Also, we're still in a mortgage crisis. Just now that the banks have strung this out for so long they aren't catching any flak from foreclosing on the majority of Americans.

    The Crowing One on
    3rddocbottom.jpg
  • SaammielSaammiel Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    enc0re wrote: »
    No doubt the unemployment rate dropping is important to people's welfare. However, usually the economy has to have passed from recession to expansion before it starts dropping. So this is a great sign and first step.

    Yeah, this. Unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. We started shedding jobs like crazy after the recession started and we will gain jobs after the recession has ended.

    Saammiel on
  • PotatoNinjaPotatoNinja Fake Gamer Goat Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    HARP isn't doing any good and commercial real estate could explode in the next year or two. Things are going better than before but that's not saying much.

    Unemployment is the real number to watch, nobody outside of CNN Money and Fox News cares if the Dow is up or down 5 points based on Obama's choice of shoes.

    PotatoNinja on
    Two goats enter, one car leaves
  • SaammielSaammiel Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    HARP isn't doing any good and commercial real estate could explode in the next year or two. Things are going better than before but that's not saying much.

    Unemployment is the real number to watch, nobody outside of CNN Money and Fox News cares if the Dow is up or down 5 points based on Obama's choice of shoes.

    Good thing the growth number is GDP growth and not stock market growth then I guess. Which lots and lots of people care about. Not to say unemployment isn't important, but again, lagging indicator.

    Saammiel on
  • mrt144mrt144 King of the Numbernames Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Thanatos wrote: »
    "Growth" doesn't really help people who are out of jobs. I haven't heard of the market improving much here, anyway.

    Who gives a fuck as long as rich people are getting rich again

    isn't that what really matters?

    Sorry, but my cynicism is going crazy today.

    Also, we're still in a mortgage crisis. Just now that the banks have strung this out for so long they aren't catching any flak from foreclosing on the majority of Americans.

    Except when they aren't foreclosing after 90 days.

    mrt144 on
  • The Crowing OneThe Crowing One Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    mrt144 wrote: »
    Thanatos wrote: »
    "Growth" doesn't really help people who are out of jobs. I haven't heard of the market improving much here, anyway.

    Who gives a fuck as long as rich people are getting rich again

    isn't that what really matters?

    Sorry, but my cynicism is going crazy today.

    Also, we're still in a mortgage crisis. Just now that the banks have strung this out for so long they aren't catching any flak from foreclosing on the majority of Americans.

    Except when they aren't foreclosing after 90 days.

    Really depends on the state and the mortgage servicer.

    The banks are stringing people along on HAMP trial plans for 6+ months then finding any small reason to issue a denial.

    The Crowing One on
    3rddocbottom.jpg
  • mrt144mrt144 King of the Numbernames Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    HARP isn't doing any good and commercial real estate could explode in the next year or two. Things are going better than before but that's not saying much.

    Unemployment is the real number to watch, nobody outside of CNN Money and Fox News cares if the Dow is up or down 5 points based on Obama's choice of shoes.

    It is imploding right now. Commerical real estate is off by a huge amount.

    mrt144 on
  • thisisntwallythisisntwally Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    should we acknowledge inventory bounce effects before we get too excited about GDP growth?

    thisisntwally on
    #someshit
  • mrt144mrt144 King of the Numbernames Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    enc0re wrote: »
    So it's pretty safe to call "recession over" as of two quarters ago. Nice.

    EDIT: Official graph.
    gdp_large.gif

    That's two quarters of nice growth right there.

    Even though it's the metric we use, it's a pretty crappy metric when you think about it. Quarter to Quarter growth could still mean we're in deep shit. GDP is still 7% below where it was in 2008.

    mrt144 on
  • mrt144mrt144 King of the Numbernames Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    should we acknowledge inventory bounce effects before we get too excited about GDP growth?

    Shhhhhhhh, nobody want's to think about that.

    mrt144 on
  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Acknowledge and dampen our expectations for this quarter? Sure. But even without it we are in solid positive territory. This appears to be the real deal. All that's left is for the NBER to make it official.
    I hope.

    enc0re on
  • thisisntwallythisisntwally Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    mrt144 wrote: »
    HARP isn't doing any good and commercial real estate could explode in the next year or two. Things are going better than before but that's not saying much.

    Unemployment is the real number to watch, nobody outside of CNN Money and Fox News cares if the Dow is up or down 5 points based on Obama's choice of shoes.

    It is imploding right now. Commerical real estate is off by a huge amount.

    Um. I'll assume imploding is implying crash.

    When you say commercial real estate is 'off' are you saying its crashed, its undervalued, or what? I'm just curious. I haven't been watching the commercial prices too much, and want to make sure i understand.

    thisisntwally on
    #someshit
  • thisisntwallythisisntwally Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    mrt144 wrote: »
    should we acknowledge inventory bounce effects before we get too excited about GDP growth?

    Shhhhhhhh, nobody want's to think about that.

    we need a remix

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xE2M3RJJXA

    thisisntwally on
    #someshit
  • mrt144mrt144 King of the Numbernames Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    mrt144 wrote: »
    HARP isn't doing any good and commercial real estate could explode in the next year or two. Things are going better than before but that's not saying much.

    Unemployment is the real number to watch, nobody outside of CNN Money and Fox News cares if the Dow is up or down 5 points based on Obama's choice of shoes.

    It is imploding right now. Commerical real estate is off by a huge amount.

    Um. I'll assume imploding is implying crash.

    When you say commercial real estate is 'off' are you saying its crashed, its undervalued, or what? I'm just curious. I haven't been watching the commercial prices too much, and want to make sure i understand.

    The prices are down by a grand amount. They are not stablizing and the rental rates are atrocious for owners. There is a glut of supply that keeps growing because projects financed in 2005-2007 are being completed. The hotel industry is fucked right now. It's bad. It's real bad.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/search/label/CRE

    mrt144 on
  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    mrt144 wrote: »
    HARP isn't doing any good and commercial real estate could explode in the next year or two. Things are going better than before but that's not saying much.

    Unemployment is the real number to watch, nobody outside of CNN Money and Fox News cares if the Dow is up or down 5 points based on Obama's choice of shoes.

    It is imploding right now. Commerical real estate is off by a huge amount.

    It is off by a FUCKING HUGE amount.

    I work at an architecture firm and can say with no amount of uncretainty the in my tri county area, this year so far, a grand total of ONE commercial building has been submitted for permit.

    normally, that number would be around 20 in a good year.

    Xaquin on
  • mrt144mrt144 King of the Numbernames Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Xaquin wrote: »
    mrt144 wrote: »
    HARP isn't doing any good and commercial real estate could explode in the next year or two. Things are going better than before but that's not saying much.

    Unemployment is the real number to watch, nobody outside of CNN Money and Fox News cares if the Dow is up or down 5 points based on Obama's choice of shoes.

    It is imploding right now. Commerical real estate is off by a huge amount.

    It is off by a FUCKING HUGE amount.

    I work at an architecture firm and can say with no amount of uncretainty the in my tri county area, this year so far, a grand total of ONE commercial building has been submitted for permit.

    normally, that number would be around 20 in a good year.

    Nothing new is being built and stuff that is being built is depreciating in price and rentability.

    mrt144 on
  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    mrt144 wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    mrt144 wrote: »
    HARP isn't doing any good and commercial real estate could explode in the next year or two. Things are going better than before but that's not saying much.

    Unemployment is the real number to watch, nobody outside of CNN Money and Fox News cares if the Dow is up or down 5 points based on Obama's choice of shoes.

    It is imploding right now. Commerical real estate is off by a huge amount.

    It is off by a FUCKING HUGE amount.

    I work at an architecture firm and can say with no amount of uncretainty the in my tri county area, this year so far, a grand total of ONE commercial building has been submitted for permit.

    normally, that number would be around 20 in a good year.

    Nothing new is being built and stuff that is being built is depreciating in price and rentability.

    exactly.

    we've been on 7 hour days for over a year because there is no work.

    unfortunately, this (at least building/design) will be getting a lot worse before it gets better.

    Xaquin on
  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    We have an oversupply of real estate. Only silly geese would build more.

    Upside: Less new construction means prices of existing stock will fall less than they otherwise would.

    enc0re on
  • tinwhiskerstinwhiskers Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Not much to be done about real estate issues, we overbuilt like mad. Anyone have any insight into the balance of first-time home buyers credits vs foreclosures are effecting apartment rental?

    tinwhiskers on
    6ylyzxlir2dz.png
  • mrt144mrt144 King of the Numbernames Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    enc0re wrote: »
    We have an oversupply of real estate. Only silly geese would build more.

    Upside: Less new construction means prices of existing stock will fall less than they otherwise would.

    Unfortunately there are projects that take years to build and are still coming online to date. Sure, eventually it'll correct itself BUT people don't have the patience or cash to wait it out.

    mrt144 on
  • SaammielSaammiel Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Saammiel on
  • AresProphetAresProphet I see a darkness in my fate I'll drive my car without the brakesRegistered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Xaquin wrote: »
    mrt144 wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    mrt144 wrote: »
    HARP isn't doing any good and commercial real estate could explode in the next year or two. Things are going better than before but that's not saying much.

    Unemployment is the real number to watch, nobody outside of CNN Money and Fox News cares if the Dow is up or down 5 points based on Obama's choice of shoes.

    It is imploding right now. Commerical real estate is off by a huge amount.

    It is off by a FUCKING HUGE amount.

    I work at an architecture firm and can say with no amount of uncretainty the in my tri county area, this year so far, a grand total of ONE commercial building has been submitted for permit.

    normally, that number would be around 20 in a good year.

    Nothing new is being built and stuff that is being built is depreciating in price and rentability.

    exactly.

    we've been on 7 hour days for over a year because there is no work.

    unfortunately, this (at least building/design) will be getting a lot worse before it gets better.

    I feel so, so sorry for my two friends who got their architecture degrees a year ago. There are no internships, even unpaid ones with a slim chance of maybe having a shot at an entry-level position.

    AresProphet on
    oh, gimme some time
    show me the foothold from which I can climb
    yeah, when I feel low
    you show me a signpost for where I should go
  • mrt144mrt144 King of the Numbernames Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Saammiel wrote: »

    YES YES YES YES YES!

    mrt144 on
  • DisrupterDisrupter Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Heres a silly question....

    wouldnt unemployment numbers raise a signifigant amount quicker then people actually lose their jobs?

    Take this scenerio. Two parents. One has a job, one stays at home to watch the family. Right now they account for 0 unemployed.

    Parent A loses their job.

    Parent A cant find a new job quickly.

    Parent B begins looking for work.

    Parent B can not find a new job quickly.

    They new account for 2 unemployed.

    Im probably being a silly goose, but it seems to me it might have a rather large skew on numbers. From what ive been able to gather from various online sources, about 25 percent of families have only 1 working member, with married people occupying about 50 percent of the population.

    That means about 12.5 percent of workers are doing so with a spouse at home not working. So it stands to reason that for every 100 jobs lost, 12.5 additional people become unemployed unrelated to job loss.

    I have no idea what any of this means...other then the stimulus package is working!

    Disrupter on
    616610-1.png
  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    enc0re wrote: »
    We have an oversupply of real estate. Only silly geese would build more.

    Upside: Less new construction means prices of existing stock will fall less than they otherwise would.

    downside: thousands and thousands and thousands of builders/carpenters/plumbers/electricians/architects/draftsmen/inspectors/permit specialists/etc. are fucked in the goose.

    Xaquin on
  • mrt144mrt144 King of the Numbernames Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Disrupter wrote: »
    Heres a silly question....

    wouldnt unemployment numbers raise a signifigant amount quicker then people actually lose their jobs?

    Take this scenerio. Two parents. One has a job, one stays at home to watch the family. Right now they account for 0 unemployed.

    Parent A loses their job.

    Parent A cant find a new job quickly.

    Parent B begins looking for work.

    Parent B can not find a new job quickly.

    They new account for 2 unemployed.

    Im probably being a silly goose, but it seems to me it might have a rather large skew on numbers. From what ive been able to gather from various online sources, about 25 percent of families have only 1 working member, with married people occupying about 50 percent of the population.

    That means about 12.5 percent of workers are doing so with a spouse at home not working. So it stands to reason that for every 100 jobs lost, 12.5 additional people become unemployed unrelated to job loss.

    I have no idea what any of this means...other then the stimulus package is working!

    Working in a way that isn't falsifiable.

    mrt144 on
  • SaarSaar Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Not to be crass but so what? Are we supposed to build up every square inch of the world so that people in the construction industry remain employed even though there is little demand for their services?

    Saar on
  • mrt144mrt144 King of the Numbernames Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Saar wrote: »
    Not to be crass but so what? Are we supposed to build up every square inch of the world so that people in the construction industry remain employed even though there is little demand for their services?

    No, obviously not. But that's long term thinking you're engaging in.

    I still support my local blacksmith.

    mrt144 on
  • DisrupterDisrupter Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    mrt144 wrote: »

    Working in a way that isn't falsifiable.

    My point had nothing to do with the stimulus...it was my way of saying my comments had no point and then picking an arbitrary unrelated statement to seemingly give it purpose.

    I thought it was unrelated enough to be obvious, I suppose not.

    Disrupter on
    616610-1.png
  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    edited January 2010
    Saar wrote: »
    Not to be crass but so what? Are we supposed to build up every square inch of the world so that people in the construction industry remain employed even though there is little demand for their services?

    I agree, that every square inch of the world need not be built on. Of course, most families can't live on 'so what', so there's that too.

    Xaquin on
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