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Tabletop gaming industry future?
koconutmonkey
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Registered User regular
So this is spawning from another thread discussing starting a hobby store. So my main question is, where will the tabletop gaming industry be in 5-10 years from now. In this I am including: miniatures, CCG's, RPGs, board games and the like. I have been having rumblings about thinking about getting back into running a hobby store.
Does the industry have what it takes to stick around with increasing competition from video games and the like? Will it be possible to lure in the younger crowds? It seems that the value of the hobby is hard to compare to a video game.
Will there be enough growth for companies to stick around? We live in an uncertain time where companies you never thought would close are shutting down. Will Games Workshop or Wizards of the Coast be the same in years to come? I have my crazy doubts about GW, as they are really screwing up their retail end of things in the states right now. What would the industry do if these companies folded? I know its crazy talk, but I can easily see GW dropping their retail stores in the US, as they are a gaping hole of money right now.
Is there anything out there to think there is brightness in the tabletop future? Will people be willing to spend money on a hobby they have to spend time on? I know this is a geek populated board, but am I being too pessimistic here?
Does the industry have what it takes to stick around with increasing competition from video games and the like? Will it be possible to lure in the younger crowds? It seems that the value of the hobby is hard to compare to a video game.
Will there be enough growth for companies to stick around? We live in an uncertain time where companies you never thought would close are shutting down. Will Games Workshop or Wizards of the Coast be the same in years to come? I have my crazy doubts about GW, as they are really screwing up their retail end of things in the states right now. What would the industry do if these companies folded? I know its crazy talk, but I can easily see GW dropping their retail stores in the US, as they are a gaping hole of money right now.
Is there anything out there to think there is brightness in the tabletop future? Will people be willing to spend money on a hobby they have to spend time on? I know this is a geek populated board, but am I being too pessimistic here?
Time to roll the dice.
koconutmonkey on
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But I don't see tabletop as a whole dying out. Video games will always be more popular, but there's something nice about getting with people in person and playing cards.
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I'm not a market analyst -- that's the job of the people GW is paying hundreds of thousands a year -- but I don't see any sudden reason why the tabletop industry is going to collapse. GW is stable, PP is growing, and Hasbro is growing (WotC's earnings aren't available). Obviously markets are inherently unstable, but in this economic downturn the fact that these niche luxury products are surviving is impressive alone.
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Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
The big guys (GW and WotC) seem to be skewing ever closer to a Marvel comics-style business; continued functioning as an extremely niche "idea house" that creates IP, then farms the IP out to more profitable mass-markets. We're already seeing this with stuff like Dawn of War and Magic: Online (as far as successful properties go). The middle tier of game companies look like they may be able to find success in being *extremely* diverse and tagging both the niche market and family boardgame market with well known IPs and accessible indie-style games (see: Fantasy Flight). These are all companies that are generally run like *businesses* though, so can survive a few years of down profits to turn it around (see: GW since LotR and their stock near doubling) and make hard decisions (FFG's willingness to drop unsucessful lines or D&D 4th shaking things up to try new revenue models).
The businesses that I don't see evolving or surviving are the majority of hobbyist-run small or mid-size publishers (at least those that don't embrace Print-on-Demand, PDF, or other cheap disti methods) and the classic FLGS "tournament center". It is extremely difficult to pay for the square footage needed to host games, unless a store owner can find a way to monetize the tables on a regular basis in addition to product sales. The games that tend to drive space usage the most (GW's stuff, Magic) are also those that drive in the most web sales based solely on cost. Especially Magic; the WAAC tournament mentality of many Magic players completely undermines the loyalty and "buy to support the store" type customers needed to support the space to promote the game. It's almost always a Catch-22.
GW really needs to figure the latter out; their stores are intended to be recruiting centers (or "Firebases" in the late 90's parlance), but they get stuck following the foot traffic, which makes near every store a loss leader just to introduce people to the hobby. While that may be fine in some situations, there are probably way more cost-efficient ways to introduce people to playing with toy soldiers. Not necessarily web-based, as the look and feel of their games and toy soldiers have been co-opted enough that they're no longer unique; rather some way to show people painted armies (which are like crack to certain males in those 12-18 and 30+ demographics) that doesn't involve paying for mall shop space. They may have figured this out recently, as there's a shift toward medium-traffic destination or strip mall stores.
GW's probably the best example of how tight management and cost control can bring success to a niche product, but WotC is probably pretty similar (if hidden in Hasbro's results). I think they indicate hobby gaming is viable as a niche market, but it needs to be a lot more creative and well-managed than most game companies are (or ever have been).
edit; fuck that's a wall of text.
tl;dr: a few hobby game companies can make it work by running very tightly and marketing creatively. The traditional game center FLGS is pretty much fucked.
Or directly via their own website. GW made their success in the US, in part, when they sold only direct over the phone and through comic shops that often took special orders only (and didn't have much display or any gaming space). The promotion worked as word-of-mouth and via basement and club gaming. I truly think there's a way for them to mimic that model and drive it, using limited destination stores and a robust system (kind of like the old... Outrider (?) program) of volunteers and compensated evangalists.
I think the FLGS has to change their focus to create a safe place that geeks want to come to and then generate revenue from that. Like create a coffee shop/bistro that caters to gaming geeks. Sell a little bit of gaming product but serve food and then set up things like tournaments and organized play events.
And, if your food is good, you may get some non-geek patrons.
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A friend of mine owns a store here in Seattle; he uses the back space as offices for his boardgame business (translating, producing, importing games) and the front space as a small, mass-market oriented shop. As he doesn't rely on sales in the shop to carry the space (it primarily exists as an office).
Thing is, a functional business model takes a lot of work and some actual business acumen. This runs counter to decades worth of opening FLGSes just to be able to hang out and play games all day. The truth is that retail sales (usually) will not support a clubhouse.
A lot of folks I talk to seem to have weathered the economic turmoil fairly well, in fact. I think Matt Leacock said it best during a recent interview I had with him, when he said that above all players and the industry just want a quality product, and it's important for designers to identify their target market and build to those players' tastes.
I'm hopeful we have many good years ahead of us.
IMO, the thing FLGS really have over online stores is having a physical gaming space, and what makes me willing to spend money there. Yeah, I pay a premium on the games, but I also get a nice free gaming area and PEOPLE to play with. If you have a problem with your purchase, it's also much more convenient and cheaper to just go back to a FLGS (though many game manufacturers are also good about fixing problems if you contact them directly).
It is definitely a problem that a lot of people don't realize this and just always get everything online (especially if they're in states with sales tax + willing to do a bit of tax evasion). It's a bit of a freerider problem.
I'm also currently more into boardgames, and less the competitive hardcore CCG/Warhammer stuff which I think is too much of a niche market to generate enough mass-market interest with gaming nights. It's a little like the video game industry with companies spending millions on the hardcore gamers with expensive graphics when there's really an even bigger market of facebook/browser PC gamers out there that are not traditionally counted. But I'm digressing.
tl;dr My FLGS gets first dibs on my money, but if they don't have something in stock, I will go online to get it because they offer me gaming opportunities. FLGS that appeal to a broader market instead of traditional niche gaming markets might have an easier time because they're more inviting to entire families and also PRETTY BITS without the time/money/lolgeekhobby worries of CCGs/minis/RPGs.
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This is huge, I think. Boargames are a link between the more hardcore hobby games and non-hobby passive entertainment (that I'd largely classify video games under), and both can build off of each other. Still, I'm skeptical that a FLGS that pays for gaming space can fund it with sales, even if focused on family-friendly or easily consumable boardgames.
It does seem that boardgames are a key piece for any independent store; the clubhouse all-CCG/wargame/RPG model of old will continue to become a rarity over time (and was not really viable in the first place).
I also think that trying to build purely off of loyalty and goodwill of customers willing to pay in store is a risky proposition. Certainly possible, depending on the owner, location, and his network, but not a reliable business model.
But this FLGS model is a rarity. Most other FLGS have the CCG/RPG/wargames and the employees!=owners. Another FLGS is half a netcafe as well with a lot of computers set up for online gaming (it's also located right next to a major public university which may be why it works. It'd probably die in the suburbs)
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All of them sell board games (amonst other stuff) and none of them are located inside malls. All the FLGS I've seen close down in recent years have all been in a mall, which I suspect is because of the high rent, small space, and less controllable store hours. Can't game till midnight if the mall closes at 9 and you don't have the table space to keep weekly customers.
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Also promising is the success of Posthuman studios' Eclipse Phase(Which is under Creative Commies License and therefore freeeeeee.) DESPITE the fact that their dead-tree publisher hasn't paid them a cent.
What does the bolded part mean?
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Predates me a bit, but I'd imagine during the genesis of all the great games (in the mid/late 70's and early 80's) there were no hobby shops; maybe model train stores with a few books in the back, at best. People formed clubs and ordered via mail order. I do clearly remember the existence of regular glossy catalogs from TSR and GW back in the day; the year's release was always a big deal.
On that note, the future of tabletop gaming may tie directly into a combination of current tabletop games and those big touch-screen monitors that you can set into tables. I'm talking 15-20 years from now, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest.
I have mixed opinions about the merging thing.
Pros: Much more portable, much more DURABLE.
Cons: Just looking at how DRM has affected software negatively, I really don't want board game companies to become tainted with that too. Also, this doesn't work as well with anything where the physical aspect is actually important (dexterity games, etc.)
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I mean, that sounds pretty Star Trek, but to be honest, it's not unfeasible.
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I call partial shenanigans on that observation.
Some fool broke into my car one night and took 2 of my figure cases, some spare change and a picnic blanket (which was covering the cases at the time). But they left some of my Snapon tools and CD wallet behind. And get this, i had a few spare dice loose in the ashtray -this jerk picked them out and took em. Loose dice were prioritised over a freaking $100 spanner !
I think a criminal is going steal what they think they can fence easily or what they want as an individual. sometimes that is an X Box or laptop but sometimes its a fully converted 40k Ork army.
Much as I love gadgets and computers and lust after a touch-sensitive, table-sized display with gaming software it's not going to be the future of boardgames any time soon. Even ignoring the issues of hardware adoption for the device the game is to run on, turning a boardgame into software introduces a lot of unnecessary costs, risks, and complications.
It's relatively cheap to turn out a boardgame design on cardboard with some cards and wooden/plastic bits. Most of the cost involved with producing a boardgame goes into design, art, and playtesting. If you want to make a computerized version of the same game you have every one of those costs plus: software design, programming, UI design, testing, and potential platform translation costs. Even more if you want to integrate an AI into the thing to let people play alone or with less than the required number of players. And your art budget is likely going to have to increase to cover animations and 3d models and such in place of static art on boards and wooden meeples.
Assuming you manage to get your software made, where do you sell it? Do you try to market it at hobby shops and comic book stores? Or in traditional software sales places, where you're competing with regular, non-boardgame titles? If your card-and-plastic game has rules issues you post errata on the website and change the rules pamphlet for the next print run. If your software game has issues you need to bring back the developers to re-code the rules, create a patch, and then pay for servers and bandwidth to let your users download it.
Then there's the issue of piracy. It's possible to 'pirate' a boardgame. Plenty of people make custom game boards and bits for games they like, or DIY versions of out-of-print games. But it's a not-insignificant investment of time, money, and effort to achieve something similar to the out-of-the-box version. Pirated software boardgames are one DRM hack away.
If I have a physical boardgame, I can take it with me. To my friend's house, on a trip, to a party or meetup.com get together, wherever. A software game requires not only that my destination have hardware to run it but that there be no DRM or licensing issues involved. And unless the hardware platform is console-style 'put in the disc and go', there's going to be installation and setup time that I wouldn't have to worry about with just breaking bits out of a box.
Finally, there's the secondaries market. I don't imagine that Kosmos/Mayfair really give a crap about the secondaries market for Catan copies, but it's pretty important to any publisher of a game with collectible elements. Where the secondaries market adds 'free' sales for any CCG publisher, allowing the same sort of after-market sales and trading in a software product would entail a significant and continued investment in the form of ownership servers for your digital cards/figures/whatever.
tl;dr: Software boardgames are all well and good when it's a known hit like Catan on XBLA but an effort to move toward software entirely in place of hard-copy is a horrible, horrible idea.
people buy games which do not have computer elements because, among other their other characteristics (detailed above) , they are not on a computer and in that way they are a unique, distinct experience/commodity. Even if all of the games we know and love did transition onto computers, that would simply leave the market open for other tabletop games to develop. If people are still interested in buying hobby games then somewhere someone is gonna keep making em. And if there isn't then that means that means that no consumer, all of you included, cares any more. so don't worry.
I've tried playing collectible card games vs friends on the net, and `RL' stuff always crops up. Its not satisfying, and if you're not in competitive position you really wonder why you're still playing and make take up a bit of websurfing while you lose or similar. This all cheapens the social aspect of the gaming experience.
Its a similar situation with roleplaying games. In real life, players don't wander off to put out the bins or watch Lost or any number of other things, because with a physical game in play, people have allocated time and made the commitment already. They might get a quick drink while someone else is combatting, but thats about it.
Sure, there are exceptions that bring this quality to online gaming (such as Raid guilds in MMOs), but the value of players making a genuine commitment to participate is a real strength of tabletop gaming. IMO this is why a lot of focus in game development is going towards making sure everyone can enjoy the whole game, rather than sit back and chuck a heal out occasionally - it gives value for that time commitment.