Video game industry thread: done here, blathering continues in new thread

cloudeagle

Hi! Welcome to the sales thread. Here we talk about how games have sold, marketing, PR comments, analysis of analysts and all kinds of other business-related stuff. Occasionally we make poop jokes.

To kick things off, here's the most awesome thing ever that EA needs to finally unveil RIGHT NOW.

Also, some brief analysis on what's happening at Activision at the moment.

In a recent Twitter message, Schafer wrote:

“Getting mad at Activision for this kind of thing is like getting mad at an ape for throwing feces. It’s just how the beast communicates.”

And now, April's info.

PlayStation 3 180.8K
PSP 65.5K
Xbox 360 185.4K
Wii 277.2K
Nintendo DS 440.8K
(PS2 info is no longer being reported)



Aaaaaand go.

Capt Howdy

Wait, I thought the Wii was doomed last month.

cloudeagle

The Wii is doomed EVERY month. Or didn't you get the memo?

jothki

Synthesis wrote: »

Ranadiel wrote: »

Alright, I concede that was a bad example.

I still think this is a poor move that will have no positive results for gamers.

As we've already seen, a few scraps of paper pre-shipped solves a huge number of potential (if unlikely) problems. So the question is, should we print it out, or should they?

Eh, to each his own. I still like my "economy barebones edition" idea, for those who don't want cases, box artwork, disc artwork, manuals, and just the name of the game written in magic marker on the disc.

I'm a big fan of the versions that don't even come with a disc.

Capt Howdy

cloudeagle wrote: »

The Wii is doomed EVERY month. Or didn't you get the memo?

But it seemed so real this time! I suppose it was the shortage. Thats what I get for reading GAF.

I don't read Gaf

But at least the WiiHD is on it's way!

In 2013

SkyGheNe

When Starcraft 2 is released, the industry's revenue will jump ten fold.

psychoticdream

SkyGheNe wrote: »

When Starcraft 2 is released, the industry's revenue will jump ten fold.

and thousands of players will dissappear for a whole week or two, only to be found sitting in front of their computers muttering and cursing under their breath

Fiaryn

Are a lot of people playing the Starcraft 2 Beta

I haven't really been paying attention.

jothki

Fiaryn wrote: »

Are a lot of people playing the Starcraft 2 Beta

I haven't really been paying attention.

Not as many people as the rest of us would like.

urahonky

jothki wrote: »

Fiaryn wrote: »

Are a lot of people playing the Starcraft 2 Beta

I haven't really been paying attention.

Not as many people as the rest of us would like.

What he said.

UnbreakableVow

Goddammit

Fuck dumb game companies

I was just budgeting for May, so I looked up release dates of games I was going to be getting. The four are 3D Dot Game Heroes, Alan Wake, Red Dead Redemption and Prince of Persia: The Forgotten Sands.

I knew they were all the same month. That's fine and well.

But 3D Dot Game Heroes is May 11.

The other three? May 18.

Three high-profile releases on the same day. In May. Fucking insanity. I think this'll be the first time I've walked out of GameStop with three games on release day.

Xenogears of Bore

I'd argue that only PoP is truely high profile.

Alan Wake is going to be 360's Heavy Rain, only possibly less QTE heavy. Similar sales pattern if they advertise it, much less if they don't.

I don't think anyone really cares about RDR2.

UnbreakableVow

Xenogears of Bore wrote: »

I don't think anyone really cares about RDR2.

Been in a GameStop lately?

I haven't seen this big of a marketing push in-store around something since MW2

Just saying

EDIT: In fact I am almost willing to make a cash-money bet that RDR outsells both Wake and PoP

Xenogears of Bore

I suppose I should wait until TV ads start around May first before I rush to judge, but I don't hear any hype.

PoP will probably have a ton of ads and movie tie in crap.

I'm pretty sure Alan Wake will fall like a stone unless they do some heavy advertisement.

Movitz

I wasn't even under the impression that the PoP games were interesting to people anymore. I haven't heard anything good about any game since Sands of Time. Maybe the third installment there was somewhat ok, can't remember.

Undead Scottsman

Xenogears of Bore wrote: »

I'd argue that only PoP is truely high profile.

Alan Wake is going to be 360's Heavy Rain, only possibly less QTE heavy. Similar sales pattern if they advertise it, much less if they don't.

I don't think anyone really cares about RDR2.

Actually, Alan Wake looks like it plays like an average RE4 clone; I doubt it'll find a unique niche like Heavy Rain did.

Xenogears of Bore

I'm thinking that if they advertise AW really well it could do Heavy Rain like numbers, nothing really about the games are similar besides being psychological thrillers of sorts and also their extremely long development cycles. :P

Henroid

That Shafer tweet is pretty great. I can't help but feel it's been said before.

So what exactly is the hint at Activision "doing something" soon?

Unco-ordinated

Xenogears of Bore wrote: »

Alan Wake is going to be 360's Heavy Rain, only possibly less QTE heavy. Similar sales pattern if they advertise it, much less if they don't.

I wish. When they first announced it, it sounded like it was going to be an open world game with a ton of adventure elements. Instead it's a linear survival horror/action game.

Only game I'll be buying in May is Alpha Protocol.

Anyway, I read the last few pages of the last thread and holy shit, there was some silly goose crap said in there. People with their gaming priorities straight get a gaming PC first? Are you fucking kidding me? I have an awesome PC and I love it but that comment was batshit insane on a Pachter level.

Personally, use the manuals when the in-game controller layout in the options sucks balls (which is surprisingly often). And no, pressing all the buttons when you first start the game doesn't always work, there are usually completely different button combinations that do different actions as well.

But hey, UnbreakableVow loves in-game tutorials and that's why he loves FFXIII, right?

Xenogears of Bore

Anyone who doesn't buy SMG2 when it releases in their region is officially on the Monster list.

DarkPrimus

Wait, the new PoP is out the same day as Alan Wake? Already?

FUCK.

And here I was already angry about having to put off skate 3 for a while.

-SPI-

New PoP is looking very "thrown together as fast as we could to get it out in time for the movie" I would be shocked if it's anything more than mediocre.

DarkPrimus

Oh yeah I forgot, I kind of stopped buying PoP games on release date a long time ago. No worries, then!

UnbreakableVow

Unco-ordinated wrote: »

But hey, UnbreakableVow loves in-game tutorials and that's why he loves FFXIII, right?

But but

But

I hate FFXIII more than anything!

Xagarath

Where are the high-profile releases in June, July or August?
There doesn't seem to be much after Galaxy 2.

UnbreakableVow

Metroid: Other M

(Is that seriously the title they're going with?)

Xenogears of Bore

UnbreakableVow wrote: »

Unco-ordinated wrote: »

But hey, UnbreakableVow loves in-game tutorials and that's why he loves FFXIII, right?

But but

But

I hate FFXIII more than anything!

Even more than me?

Henroid

Xenogears of Bore wrote: »

UnbreakableVow wrote: »

Unco-ordinated wrote: »

But hey, UnbreakableVow loves in-game tutorials and that's why he loves FFXIII, right?

But but

But

I hate FFXIII more than anything!

Even more than me?

Xeno, not liking games doesn't make you cool!

I keep seeing a lot of hate for FFXIII. I don't say that in defense (I haven't played it) but is it really that bad?

Xenogears of Bore

Of course it does!

Also I like FF XIII a whole lot, but we'll see if my opinion about it changes when I finally have time to go back to it and finish all the post game crap.

I love the guide though.

Dr Mario Kart

I'm struggling to figure out what the #10 spot for April NPD will be, since its very important to placing TSE bets. March was a historic high. Does that mean its going to crash or will it be lower but with some carryover strength? How burned out are consumers after the first few vicious months of 2010?

History: (March->April)

2007:
148k->79k

2008:
224.9k->141k

2009:
205k->91k

2010:
349.2k->???

I think 200k is a good baseline for guessing. Can 10 titles released in either March or April can clock 200k?

1. GOD OF WAR III* PS3 SONY Mar-10 1.10M
2. POKEMON SOULSILVER VERSION NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA Mar-10 1.02M
3. FINAL FANTASY XIII PS3 SQUARE ENIX Mar-10 828.2K
4. BATTLEFIELD : BAD COMPANY 2 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS Mar-10 825.5K
5. POKEMON HEARTGOLD VERSION NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA Mar-10 761.2K
6. FINAL FANTASY XIII 360 SQUARE ENIX Mar-10 493.9K
7. NEW SUPER MARIO BROS. WII WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Nov-09 457.4K
8. BATTLEFIELD : BAD COMPANY 2 PS3 ELECTRONIC ARTS Mar-10 451.2K
9. WII FIT PLUS W/ BALANCE BOARD* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Oct-09 429.6K
10. MLB 10: THE SHOW PS3 SONY Mar-10 349.2K

The notable releases for April are Monster Hunter Tri, Super Street Fighter 4 and Splinter Cell Convinction. Lets take them one at a time.

My generously high end estimate for Tri would 130-140k, low end 90-100k. Thats out.

Here is Street Fighter 4's launch. How Super will do is something of a mystery. Its cheaper but it is an add-on, so the base for it is really people who bought the first game, minus attrition.
2. Street Fighter IV - Xbox 360 - Capcom - 446K*
3. Street Fighter IV - PS3 - Capcom - 403K*

I can see 150k-225k for both. Virtually tied with PS3 possibly fractionally higher this time, or closer than last time. I'd give them both 40% of 200k.

Splinter Cell Conviction, unlike GRAW, is single player oriented. The brand seems strong enough and the game good enough. So thats in [1].

Lets take a look at March NPD.

God of War 3? AAA exclusive, single player. What do we have for comparison?
MGS4 774.6K -> Not in top 10 (<147k). God of War 3 launched at a similar time in the month 40% higher and is more accessible/popular. I think the odds of 200k+ for March are 75-80%)[4]

The two pokemon games are guaranteed [2][3]

Bad Company 2. Chances of 200k for PS3 are zero. Chances for 360 are slim (<10%)
Final Fantasy 13. Chances of 200k are near zero.
Wii Fit, NSMB Wii: 200k guaranteed [5][6]
Wii Sports Resort: Chances of 200k 80-90%[7]
MLB: Chances are zero.

Wildcard:
Just Dance

With #10 in March being 349k, Just Dance was #12 and was likely very high while the Wii sold 557k
In February it sold 274k at #4, with Wii hardware at 397k.

Depending on consumer fatigue, I think Just Dance has a 30-40% chance to crack 200k, and may even round out the top 10 depending on the weakness of the rest of the 10.

Conclusion:

I think #10 for April will be very close to 200k. Both Street Fighters and Just Dance could do it or could just miss. If consumer fatigue is heavy, it could knock everything down 25-30% and we're looking at as low as 150k for #10, but I doubt it will be that severe.

Thoughts?

DarkWarrior

For RDR2, its probably their biggest game since GTA BUT I'd say its audience is also more limited to people who want to play a western instead of run drugs, fire bazookas and drive cars into their garage. I wouldn't thing the audiences for both are compatable.

Needed to share this video, what really happens when you rescue the princess.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEVU-YLpM8A&feature=player_embedded

UncleSporky

Ha, a family member just sent me that video. It looks a lot like Wonder Boy in Monster World on the Genesis.

Brainiac 8

Xagarath wrote: »

Where are the high-profile releases in June, July or August?
There doesn't seem to be much after Galaxy 2.

June has both Sin & Punishment 2 and Metroid: Other M.

Both very high profile

to me.

:P


Oh and I didn't get to mention in the last thread, I still like having manuels from Nintendo, as they usually pack alot of pretty awesome art into their manuels....the rest of the companies and cut them out for all I care.

Xagarath

Brainiac 8 wrote: »

Xagarath wrote: »

Where are the high-profile releases in June, July or August?
There doesn't seem to be much after Galaxy 2.

June has both Sin & Punishment 2 and Metroid: Other M.

Both very high profile

to me.

:P


Oh and I didn't get to mention in the last thread, I still like having manuels from Nintendo, as they usually pack alot of pretty awesome art into their manuels....the rest of the companies and cut them out for all I care.

See, we get Sin and Punishment 2 in May and Metroid in September, apparently.
Hence my statement.

Brainiac 8

Ah, that makes sense. Yea, I'm hating June since Nintendo felt the need to put them both out withing a couple weeks of each other, and gall dernnit Nintendo, I'm not made of money! :x

cloudeagle

Already a seller of brand-new videogames, global convenience retailer 7-Eleven announced it will soon be offering used games as part of its new "GREAT GAMES BELOW $20" program.

7-Eleven has partnered with pre-owned games supplier Game Trading Technologies, Inc., and will begin selling used games starting this September in over 3,000 locations across the U.S. All participating stores will receive a "corrugated display with a mixture of games representing various platforms and price points," all priced at or below $19.99, and will constantly be replenished with a new stock of used games.

"We partnered with GTT because of their experience and expertise as a third-party provider of video games and the terrific selection they'll offer to our customers," said Michael Jester, 7-Eleven category manager for gaming and electronics. "More than 60 percent of U.S. households now have at least one video game console, and consumers are searching for convenient ways to stretch their entertainment dollar in this challenging economy."

Wait, I thought 7-11 got out of the games biz? Ah well.

http://pc.ign.com/articles/108/1084512p1.html

cloudeagle

A Twitter follower pointed Platinum Games' Hideki Kamiya to a recent European interview in which Nintendo's Shigeru Miyamoto expressed interest in seeing a new Star Fox game made. Replied Kamiya: "I want Nintendo's staff to come to Platinum, stick guns at us and tell us 'You guys make a new Star Fox.'"

http://ds.ign.com/articles/108/1084496p1.html

God bless those wacky Platinum Games bastards.

Brainiac 8

Just so you know (I'm sure you do) Marvel vs Capcom 3 is official.

Me am happy.

Brainiac 8

cloudeagle wrote: »

A Twitter follower pointed Platinum Games' Hideki Kamiya to a recent European interview in which Nintendo's Shigeru Miyamoto expressed interest in seeing a new Star Fox game made. Replied Kamiya: "I want Nintendo's staff to come to Platinum, stick guns at us and tell us 'You guys make a new Star Fox.'"

http://ds.ign.com/articles/108/1084496p1.html

God bless those wacky Platinum Games bastards.

Platinum Starfox would be all kinds of crazy and would probably end up having naked furries.

cloudeagle

Brainiac 8 wrote: »

Just so you know (I'm sure you do) Marvel vs Capcom 3 is official.

Me am happy.

It just seems odd that it took Marvel and Capcom THIS long to make a sequel, considering how popular the last was and how much of a dud EA's attempt at aping MvC (that horrible Rise of the Imperfects thing) turned out to be.

I'm just hoping Activision's contract with Spidey doesn't preclude him from being in MvC3.

And that someone will finally see the wisdom of putting Howard the Duck in there.

Brainiac 8

They are putting Super Skrull in the game, and me being a huge nut for Cosmic Marvel, I'm already sold and it really doesn't matter to me whoever else they add....unless they decide to put Nova in the game, which would put it over the very top.