This is silly. Every stock investor worth their salt knows that it's impossible to time the market like this. The current stock price already reflects what the market knows about BP - and it certainly knows that BP is in deep shit.
No, the market knows that there is a high liklihood that BP may be in deep shit.
And, specifically, the market can be wrong because it doesn't have all of the information (specifically it doesn't have the values that non-buyers affix to it) and it can be reacting to information echoing (Essentially one person thinks something is bad which sends a signal which make other people think its bad and so on and so forth, the original signal getting amplified by fears) or simple information manipulation(sell to induce price drop via information transmission then purchase at new lower price for a larger quantity)
BP may be a risky position, but its not a zero position.
Efficient market hypothesis assumes proper, non-manipulatable markets. Which given the prevalence of computer traders is probably unlikely.
The biggest problem i've had with this whole spill are the failed attempts to stop/contain the flow due to the "depth" of this well. Everytime i hear "but hasn't been tested at these depths" i cringe. There is no excuse for companies that make multi billions of dollars a year in profit to not have a few backup plans that have had some kind of test at these depths, or at the very least designed with these depths in mind.
But the blame doesn't just rest with the companies. This is where the government should be mandating that if you want to drill here, you need X emergency systems in place that are appropriate for those conditions. God knows they make enough money to fund that kind of R & D.
Unfortunately they do demand these emergency systems in markets like canada, but George Bush thought they weren't important. Of course, the republicans will blame Obama instead for not acting to change the law while he wasn't even in government.
The biggest problem i've had with this whole spill are the failed attempts to stop/contain the flow due to the "depth" of this well. Everytime i hear "but hasn't been tested at these depths" i cringe. There is no excuse for companies that make multi billions of dollars a year in profit to not have a few backup plans that have had some kind of test at these depths, or at the very least designed with these depths in mind.
But the blame doesn't just rest with the companies. This is where the government should be mandating that if you want to drill here, you need X emergency systems in place that are appropriate for those conditions. God knows they make enough money to fund that kind of R & D.
Unfortunately they do demand these emergency systems in markets like canada, but George Bush thought they weren't important. Of course, the republicans will blame Obama instead for not acting to change the law while he wasn't even in government.
I'd love it if government at any level was handling the spill appropriately, but I just don't see it happening. The EPA tells BP to stop using Corexit, BP tells them to fuck off. Nevermind the question of whether subsea dispersant should even be used in the first place, given that virtually all modern spill-cleaning techniques are based on surface oil. We have the Coast Guard and local police departments acting like BP's private security. Failure to use proper booming technique. Failure to implement a response plan calling for fire booms and in-situ burning that had been sitting around since 1994. Taking BP's word as the gospel truth about damn near everything, even though BP has a multitude of reasons to downplay the magnitude of the disaster.
So I just saw video of Bobby Jindal acting self-righteous and chiding the federal government for not signing off on the construction of something called sand berms. I did a little research, and as far as I can tell a sand berm is just a wall of sand that's liable to wash away in a strong storm, which would make them a poor investment when hurricane season is just about to start. I couldn't find anything in support of the berms, though, so I still don't really understand what's going on.
Can anyone clarify why sand berms are being presented as an obvious step by Jindal, and whether or not they're liable to actually help?
So I just saw video of Bobby Jindal acting self-righteous and chiding the federal government for not signing off on the construction of something called sand berms. I did a little research, and as far as I can tell a sand berm is just a wall of sand that's liable to wash away in a strong storm, which would make them a poor investment when hurricane season is just about to start. I couldn't find anything in support of the berms, though, so I still don't really understand what's going on.
Can anyone clarify why sand berms are being presented as an obvious step by Jindal, and whether or not they're liable to actually help?
jindal's just trying to score points off the government response by tossing out a garbage solution
"Ah well, good run chaps. We sure did give it a go. Shall we get back to our usual 18 hole round then? I sure am in need of a good dry Martini right now."
"Ah well, good run chaps. We sure did give it a go. Shall we get back to our usual 18 hole round then? I sure am in need of a good dry Martini right now."
What? But I saw them cutting the riser! If they stop now then all they did today was increase the flow of oil 10%. There's no way that's real, for the simple sake of PR they have to keep trying.
"Ah well, good run chaps. We sure did give it a go. Shall we get back to our usual 18 hole round then? I sure am in need of a good dry Martini right now."
What? But I saw them cutting the riser! If they stop now then all they did today was increase the flow of oil 10%. There's no way that's real, for the simple sake of PR they have to keep trying.
They cut pipes on the sides of the big pipe, but I don't think they ever got to the big one.
This is BP admitting that they don't have a clue, and not making it worse by fumbling around trying.
Pretty sure they aren't quitting everything, they are just quitting trying to plug it with stuff. They are still going to try to funnel it into a tanker.
Pretty sure they aren't quitting everything, they are just quitting trying to plug it with stuff. They are still going to try to funnel it into a tanker.
Finally someone at BP figured out how to make money from this disaster
Oh wait
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DrakeEdgelord TrashBelow the ecliptic plane.Registered Userregular
So I don't really understand the scope of things, I gotta admit. Like... how bad is this?
How many more creatures will die from this than say... Exxon Valdez?
How much more environmental impact will this have than that volcano blowing up?
How much money is the lost oil / clean-up costing us compared to Hurricane Katrina related stuff?
Other than some sad dolphin pictures and some unemployed fisherman, how is this oil spill affecting anything I actually care about?
Honestly, no one really knows how bad this is going to get. Hundreds and hundreds of miles of coast line will be fouled. That's pretty much a given. But no one knows just exactly what the dispersant is doing. Adding it at the source, and then the big changes in pressure and temperature as it rises is something that's just never been done before. I've seen all kinds of talk about giant underwater plumes of oil (rumors seem to indicate there are around three), but I haven't seen anything I'd call reliable on those.
As far as what you care about? The blow to the economy is going to be felt by everyone. All those workers who have been out there this whole time with out respiration equipment are going to develop things like leukemia, lesions on their brains and nervous system damage. How many people is that? There will probably be enough exposure in some coastal areas where people who aren't working the spill may develop some serious health issues.
So I just saw video of Bobby Jindal acting self-righteous and chiding the federal government for not signing off on the construction of something called sand berms. I did a little research, and as far as I can tell a sand berm is just a wall of sand that's liable to wash away in a strong storm, which would make them a poor investment when hurricane season is just about to start. I couldn't find anything in support of the berms, though, so I still don't really understand what's going on.
Can anyone clarify why sand berms are being presented as an obvious step by Jindal, and whether or not they're liable to actually help?
Berms could possibly absorb a significant amount of oil, preventing it from reaching the marshes.
What Jindal isn't considering is that the ecology of those marshes is based around the tides, which the berms would block.
So I don't really understand the scope of things, I gotta admit. Like... how bad is this?
How many more creatures will die from this than say... Exxon Valdez?
How much more environmental impact will this have than that volcano blowing up?
How much money is the lost oil / clean-up costing us compared to Hurricane Katrina related stuff?
Other than some sad dolphin pictures and some unemployed fisherman, how is this oil spill affecting anything I actually care about?
About the same as Exxon Valdez, there's kinda a threshold beyond which everything is just as dead as it was before.
Massively more than the volcano, the volcano will just give a tiny blip in temperatures.
Hugely more than Katrina, a proper cleanup is going to take years, and require much more sophisticated techniques.
It's costing the US economy billions of dollars, and that means many people will move from contributors to taking from the federal pot of money. This means a higher strain on people who are still paying in. Also, love them or hate them, BP gave a lot of money to research in the USA, so that will also take a big hit. Also, agree or disagree this will be increasing the cost of offshore drilling, which will mean very slightly higher prices at the pumps. The gulf is also a huge source of seafood, so if you like eating fish be ready for higher prices for years.
So I just saw video of Bobby Jindal acting self-righteous and chiding the federal government for not signing off on the construction of something called sand berms. I did a little research, and as far as I can tell a sand berm is just a wall of sand that's liable to wash away in a strong storm, which would make them a poor investment when hurricane season is just about to start. I couldn't find anything in support of the berms, though, so I still don't really understand what's going on.
Can anyone clarify why sand berms are being presented as an obvious step by Jindal, and whether or not they're liable to actually help?
Berms could possibly absorb a significant amount of oil, preventing it from reaching the marshes.
What Jindal isn't considering is that the ecology of those marshes is based around the tides, which the berms would block.
The other problem is that Berms are a short term solution. If the oil is coming ashore for a week or so, you build your berms, the oil hits them and then you use dredgers to dig them out again. In this case oil may be coming ashore for a month, so the berm would be saturated and then just wash onto the shore covered in oil.
So I don't really understand the scope of things, I gotta admit. Like... how bad is this?
How many more creatures will die from this than say... Exxon Valdez?
How much more environmental impact will this have than that volcano blowing up?
How much money is the lost oil / clean-up costing us compared to Hurricane Katrina related stuff?
Other than some sad dolphin pictures and some unemployed fisherman, how is this oil spill affecting anything I actually care about?
Honestly, no one really knows how bad this is going to get. Hundreds and hundreds of miles of coast line will be fouled. That's pretty much a given. But no one knows just exactly what the dispersant is doing. Adding it at the source, and then the big changes in pressure and temperature as it rises is something that's just never been done before. I've seen all kinds of talk about giant underwater plumes of oil (rumors seem to indicate there are around three), but I haven't seen anything I'd call reliable on those.
As far as what you care about? The blow to the economy is going to be felt by everyone. All those workers who have been out there this whole time with out respiration equipment are going to develop things like leukemia, lesions on their brains and nervous system damage. How many people is that? There will probably be enough exposure in some coastal areas where people who aren't working the spill may develop some serious health issues.
Lest we forget that if we get a few good hurricanes this year you've got storm surge turning into oil surge.
I really love the fact that nearly every thing BP tried involved salvaging oil from the well, which, I guess is a business practical solution, if it sucked up ALL of it.
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DrakeEdgelord TrashBelow the ecliptic plane.Registered Userregular
So I don't really understand the scope of things, I gotta admit. Like... how bad is this?
How many more creatures will die from this than say... Exxon Valdez?
How much more environmental impact will this have than that volcano blowing up?
How much money is the lost oil / clean-up costing us compared to Hurricane Katrina related stuff?
Other than some sad dolphin pictures and some unemployed fisherman, how is this oil spill affecting anything I actually care about?
Honestly, no one really knows how bad this is going to get. Hundreds and hundreds of miles of coast line will be fouled. That's pretty much a given. But no one knows just exactly what the dispersant is doing. Adding it at the source, and then the big changes in pressure and temperature as it rises is something that's just never been done before. I've seen all kinds of talk about giant underwater plumes of oil (rumors seem to indicate there are around three), but I haven't seen anything I'd call reliable on those.
As far as what you care about? The blow to the economy is going to be felt by everyone. All those workers who have been out there this whole time with out respiration equipment are going to develop things like leukemia, lesions on their brains and nervous system damage. How many people is that? There will probably be enough exposure in some coastal areas where people who aren't working the spill may develop some serious health issues.
Lest we forget that if we get a few good hurricanes this year you've got storm surge turning into oil surge.
Yeah, that's my own personal nightmare scenario. A nice category five whips up and we get a HydroCarbocane. It's like something out of a William Gibson novel.
If we end up with a hurricane that is on fire I am LEAVING.
Serious comment: Cognisseur, this is almost certainly going to be the worst ecological disaster in American history. Especially if BP and the Coast Guard keep fucking up the cleanup efforts.
If we end up with a hurricane that is on fire I am LEAVING.
Serious comment: Cognisseur, this is almost certainly going to be the worst ecological disaster in American history. Especially if BP and the Coast Guard keep fucking up the cleanup efforts.
But even so, I'm still having difficulty seeing what that means. The economy suffers but given the state it's in I don't even know if I'll notice a difference. Gas will go up a bit? Oh no...
Like, I can get behind global warming related stuff because I can see it having a permanent effect on this planet, and that's not something you want to fuck with. But this oil spill, I understand it's a big deal but I'm still having difficulty seeing how it's a big deal for me, a non-dolphin in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm not trying to sound callous, I just think I'm missing how this affects me or affects the world in a grandscale way.
If we end up with a hurricane that is on fire I am LEAVING.
Serious comment: Cognisseur, this is almost certainly going to be the worst ecological disaster in American history. Especially if BP and the Coast Guard keep fucking up the cleanup efforts.
I was thinking about this the other day.
It's a very real fear that a hurricane could go through the oil spill and pick up a shit ton of oil... but, is it physically possible for it to turn into a literal fire storm?
If we end up with a hurricane that is on fire I am LEAVING.
Serious comment: Cognisseur, this is almost certainly going to be the worst ecological disaster in American history. Especially if BP and the Coast Guard keep fucking up the cleanup efforts.
I was thinking about this the other day.
It's a very real fear that a hurricane could go through the oil spill and pick up a shit ton of oil... but, is it physically possible for it to turn into a literal fire storm?
The oil would probably be too dispersed to stay lit, so no. IIRC for the controlled burns they have to concentrate the oil before it will burn well.
Probably for the best or some random lighting strike would hit and the entire fucking Gulf would be on fire...
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-Loki-Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining.Registered Userregular
If we end up with a hurricane that is on fire I am LEAVING.
Serious comment: Cognisseur, this is almost certainly going to be the worst ecological disaster in American history. Especially if BP and the Coast Guard keep fucking up the cleanup efforts.
I was thinking about this the other day.
It's a very real fear that a hurricane could go through the oil spill and pick up a shit ton of oil... but, is it physically possible for it to turn into a literal fire storm?
I'm not familiar with hurricanes - do they produce lightning?
o I don't really understand the scope of things, I gotta admit. Like... how bad is this?
How many more creatures will die from this than say... Exxon Valdez?
How much more environmental impact will this have than that volcano blowing up?
How much money is the lost oil / clean-up costing us compared to Hurricane Katrina related stuff?
Other than some sad dolphin pictures and some unemployed fisherman, how is this oil spill affecting anything I actually care about?
Well, think about it this way: nobody has any realistic idea of how much oil is in the artery that BP was suckling at. The worst case scenario is that the leak never stops until the entire ocean is sterilized, rendering planet Earth uninhabitable.
That's not remotely likely, but it gives you an idea of the type of scale & risk we're involved in when it comes to fucking around in the ocean.
The spill will definitely hammer the U.S. economy, the oil itself will leave scars for decades or better along the coastline, and Flying Spaghetti Monster knows how terribly the food web has been mangled. For all we know, we just totally broke the pillar of the biosphere keeping plankton around; if you enjoy breathing oxygen, that's not a good thing.
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GoslingLooking Up Soccer In Mongolia Right Now, ProbablyWatertown, WIRegistered Userregular
edited June 2010
Please direct yourself to BP's website. You'll note the front page is, of course, devoted to the oil spill.
Now please note the right-hand side of the main page.
GoM response - contacts
U.S. Coast Guard Joint Information Center: +1 985 902 5231
Environmental hotline and community information: +1 866 448 5816
Wildlife distress hotline:
+1 866 557 1401
Volunteers: +1 866 448 5816
Register your professional services:
+1 281 366 5511
Vessels of Opportunity - register boats to assist with response:
+1 281 366 5511
If we end up with a hurricane that is on fire I am LEAVING.
Serious comment: Cognisseur, this is almost certainly going to be the worst ecological disaster in American history. Especially if BP and the Coast Guard keep fucking up the cleanup efforts.
I was thinking about this the other day.
It's a very real fear that a hurricane could go through the oil spill and pick up a shit ton of oil... but, is it physically possible for it to turn into a literal fire storm?
I'm not familiar with hurricanes - do they produce lightning?
Well if this actually was something that could end the world, a flaming hurricane that shoots lightning is a pretty badass way to go
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HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
edited June 2010
So it took the Daily Show to bring this to my attention but over the last 3 years BP has had hundreds of willful safety violations, compared to every other company having less than 8 (Exxon had ONE).
BP doesn't seem like a company to admire on any level.
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Nova_CI have the needThe need for speedRegistered Userregular
edited June 2010
You know, I'm probably really LTTP in learning this (Hey, it happened a couple months before I was born!), but the fact that this scenario played out 30 years ago already and the ecology recovered has actually made me a lot less stressed about the possible consequences.
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MrVyngaardLive From New EtoileStraight Outta SosariaRegistered Userregular
So it took the Daily Show to bring this to my attention but over the last 3 years BP has had hundreds of willful safety violations, compared to every other company having less than 8 (Exxon had ONE).
BP doesn't seem like a company to admire on any level.
"The cost of the fine is always less than the cost of compliance."
- neatly printed somewhere in block lettering in any Endron executive's workspace.
Endron might have been fictional, but it's not hard to see where the inspiration came from. Thanks, BP.
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HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
So it took the Daily Show to bring this to my attention but over the last 3 years BP has had hundreds of willful safety violations, compared to every other company having less than 8 (Exxon had ONE).
BP doesn't seem like a company to admire on any level.
"The cost of the fine is always less than the cost of compliance."
- neatly printed somewhere in block lettering in any Endron executive's workspace.
Endron might have been fictional, but it's not hard to see where the inspiration came from. Thanks, BP.
Posts
And, specifically, the market can be wrong because it doesn't have all of the information (specifically it doesn't have the values that non-buyers affix to it) and it can be reacting to information echoing (Essentially one person thinks something is bad which sends a signal which make other people think its bad and so on and so forth, the original signal getting amplified by fears) or simple information manipulation(sell to induce price drop via information transmission then purchase at new lower price for a larger quantity)
BP may be a risky position, but its not a zero position.
Efficient market hypothesis assumes proper, non-manipulatable markets. Which given the prevalence of computer traders is probably unlikely.
Unfortunately they do demand these emergency systems in markets like canada, but George Bush thought they weren't important. Of course, the republicans will blame Obama instead for not acting to change the law while he wasn't even in government.
This is the result of bipartisan goosery. MMS was shown to be dirty in 2008, no steps were taken to clean it up under either administration. There have been 27 waivers granted for oil drilling in the Gulf since the Deepwater spill began.
I'd love it if government at any level was handling the spill appropriately, but I just don't see it happening. The EPA tells BP to stop using Corexit, BP tells them to fuck off. Nevermind the question of whether subsea dispersant should even be used in the first place, given that virtually all modern spill-cleaning techniques are based on surface oil. We have the Coast Guard and local police departments acting like BP's private security. Failure to use proper booming technique. Failure to implement a response plan calling for fire booms and in-situ burning that had been sitting around since 1994. Taking BP's word as the gospel truth about damn near everything, even though BP has a multitude of reasons to downplay the magnitude of the disaster.
Can anyone clarify why sand berms are being presented as an obvious step by Jindal, and whether or not they're liable to actually help?
https://twitter.com/Hooraydiation
jindal's just trying to score points off the government response by tossing out a garbage solution
that's really all there is to it
...Can they do that?
"Ah well, good run chaps. We sure did give it a go. Shall we get back to our usual 18 hole round then? I sure am in need of a good dry Martini right now."
What? But I saw them cutting the riser! If they stop now then all they did today was increase the flow of oil 10%. There's no way that's real, for the simple sake of PR they have to keep trying.
They cut pipes on the sides of the big pipe, but I don't think they ever got to the big one.
This is BP admitting that they don't have a clue, and not making it worse by fumbling around trying.
How many more creatures will die from this than say... Exxon Valdez?
How much more environmental impact will this have than that volcano blowing up?
How much money is the lost oil / clean-up costing us compared to Hurricane Katrina related stuff?
Other than some sad dolphin pictures and some unemployed fisherman, how is this oil spill affecting anything I actually care about?
Exxon-Valdez impacted isolated villages.
This will affect an enormous economy within one of the world's biggest economies.
Finally someone at BP figured out how to make money from this disaster
Oh wait
Honestly, no one really knows how bad this is going to get. Hundreds and hundreds of miles of coast line will be fouled. That's pretty much a given. But no one knows just exactly what the dispersant is doing. Adding it at the source, and then the big changes in pressure and temperature as it rises is something that's just never been done before. I've seen all kinds of talk about giant underwater plumes of oil (rumors seem to indicate there are around three), but I haven't seen anything I'd call reliable on those.
As far as what you care about? The blow to the economy is going to be felt by everyone. All those workers who have been out there this whole time with out respiration equipment are going to develop things like leukemia, lesions on their brains and nervous system damage. How many people is that? There will probably be enough exposure in some coastal areas where people who aren't working the spill may develop some serious health issues.
Berms could possibly absorb a significant amount of oil, preventing it from reaching the marshes.
What Jindal isn't considering is that the ecology of those marshes is based around the tides, which the berms would block.
About the same as Exxon Valdez, there's kinda a threshold beyond which everything is just as dead as it was before.
Massively more than the volcano, the volcano will just give a tiny blip in temperatures.
Hugely more than Katrina, a proper cleanup is going to take years, and require much more sophisticated techniques.
It's costing the US economy billions of dollars, and that means many people will move from contributors to taking from the federal pot of money. This means a higher strain on people who are still paying in. Also, love them or hate them, BP gave a lot of money to research in the USA, so that will also take a big hit. Also, agree or disagree this will be increasing the cost of offshore drilling, which will mean very slightly higher prices at the pumps. The gulf is also a huge source of seafood, so if you like eating fish be ready for higher prices for years.
The other problem is that Berms are a short term solution. If the oil is coming ashore for a week or so, you build your berms, the oil hits them and then you use dredgers to dig them out again. In this case oil may be coming ashore for a month, so the berm would be saturated and then just wash onto the shore covered in oil.
I have a strong feeling this is not how engineering works.
Engineering is about solving problems. I don't know how hard it would be to turn that into a crimper, but it couldn't hurt to consider that.
It's already half a crimper.
Lest we forget that if we get a few good hurricanes this year you've got storm surge turning into oil surge.
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3DSFF: 5026-4429-6577
Yeah, that's my own personal nightmare scenario. A nice category five whips up and we get a HydroCarbocane. It's like something out of a William Gibson novel.
Serious comment: Cognisseur, this is almost certainly going to be the worst ecological disaster in American history. Especially if BP and the Coast Guard keep fucking up the cleanup efforts.
But even so, I'm still having difficulty seeing what that means. The economy suffers but given the state it's in I don't even know if I'll notice a difference. Gas will go up a bit? Oh no...
Like, I can get behind global warming related stuff because I can see it having a permanent effect on this planet, and that's not something you want to fuck with. But this oil spill, I understand it's a big deal but I'm still having difficulty seeing how it's a big deal for me, a non-dolphin in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm not trying to sound callous, I just think I'm missing how this affects me or affects the world in a grandscale way.
Steam: CavilatRest
I was thinking about this the other day.
It's a very real fear that a hurricane could go through the oil spill and pick up a shit ton of oil... but, is it physically possible for it to turn into a literal fire storm?
The oil would probably be too dispersed to stay lit, so no. IIRC for the controlled burns they have to concentrate the oil before it will burn well.
Probably for the best or some random lighting strike would hit and the entire fucking Gulf would be on fire...
I'm not familiar with hurricanes - do they produce lightning?
Well, think about it this way: nobody has any realistic idea of how much oil is in the artery that BP was suckling at. The worst case scenario is that the leak never stops until the entire ocean is sterilized, rendering planet Earth uninhabitable.
That's not remotely likely, but it gives you an idea of the type of scale & risk we're involved in when it comes to fucking around in the ocean.
The spill will definitely hammer the U.S. economy, the oil itself will leave scars for decades or better along the coastline, and Flying Spaghetti Monster knows how terribly the food web has been mangled. For all we know, we just totally broke the pillar of the biosphere keeping plankton around; if you enjoy breathing oxygen, that's not a good thing.
Now please note the right-hand side of the main page.
Do you have ideas to help us?
BP is now actively soliciting ideas from the general public because they have no idea what they're doing. That's just sad.
Some logo redesigns for BP in light of the spill.
Eh I'm not a fan of how things are going either but seriously?
Honestly that's a point in their favor for me.
So that puts my BP favor meter at 7 out of eleven billion
No, there's not "for all we know", you're overstating things.
It's really, really bad. It's not a global extinction event or the apocalypse
Well if this actually was something that could end the world, a flaming hurricane that shoots lightning is a pretty badass way to go
BP doesn't seem like a company to admire on any level.
"The cost of the fine is always less than the cost of compliance."
- neatly printed somewhere in block lettering in any Endron executive's workspace.
Endron might have been fictional, but it's not hard to see where the inspiration came from. Thanks, BP.
That's disgusting.