I get the feeling that the movie industry is going to be falling over themselves to try and push some 3D movie carts. I don't think they would have offered up the trailers like they did otherwise.
I don't see people rebuying their films in small-screen cart format any more than they did for the PSP.
2 of the 3 companies they talked about were owned by disney, which falls into the demographic pretty well...
Spoit go back to your old icon so I can recognise you. FRom here on, everyone stop changing your avatars, it confuses me.
And it doesnt matter because that demographic doesn't have disposable income, their parents do and their parents might buy them a film here or there to shut their faces on holiday, but they aren't going to do it in the long term when the DVD is probably the exact same price.
But they do have a download service now. So maybe saying movie carts was the wrong way to say it, but I don't think they would have pushed the 3D movie trailers unless they were interested in actually putting their movies out there.
Yes, it may be small screen, but at the same time its portable 3D. That puts it in a slightly different category than UMDs.
InkSplat on
Origin for Dragon Age: Inquisition Shenanigans: Inksplat776
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Warlock82Never pet a burning dogRegistered Userregular
I get the feeling that the movie industry is going to be falling over themselves to try and push some 3D movie carts. I don't think they would have offered up the trailers like they did otherwise.
I don't see people rebuying their films in small-screen cart format any more than they did for the PSP.
There's a difference between rebuying old films purely "to watch on the go" and buying 3D versions of films. I mean, this is a hell of a lot cheaper alternative to see, say, 3D Avatar than buying one of those $3000 TV sets...
I get the feeling that the movie industry is going to be falling over themselves to try and push some 3D movie carts. I don't think they would have offered up the trailers like they did otherwise.
I don't see people rebuying their films in small-screen cart format any more than they did for the PSP.
2 of the 3 companies they talked about were owned by disney, which falls into the demographic pretty well...
Spoit go back to your old icon so I can recognise you. FRom here on, everyone stop changing your avatars, it confuses me.
And it doesnt matter because that demographic doesn't have disposable income, their parents do and their parents might buy them a film here or there to shut their faces on holiday, but they aren't going to do it in the long term when the DVD is probably the exact same price.
But they do have a download service now. So maybe saying movie carts was the wrong way to say it, but I don't think they would have pushed the 3D movie trailers unless they were interested in actually putting their movies out there.
Yes, it may be small screen, but at the same time its portable 3D. That puts it in a slightly different category than UMDs.
Sony claimed the PS2 had a viable network service. They say stuff. I mean Im sure there are movie studios salivating at being able to play movies on a potential 100 million strong audience, I'm just going to do a Pachter and say that won't happen. Someone who wants to watch Avatar 3D isn't going to want to watch it on a DS. Let alone for the what? 2 hours, 3 hours running time? I mean you have to hold it in your view, I've not seen a stand peripheral yet, and then you get to the sound quality.
I get the feeling that the movie industry is going to be falling over themselves to try and push some 3D movie carts. I don't think they would have offered up the trailers like they did otherwise.
I don't see people rebuying their films in small-screen cart format any more than they did for the PSP.
2 of the 3 companies they talked about were owned by disney, which falls into the demographic pretty well...
Spoit go back to your old icon so I can recognise you. FRom here on, everyone stop changing your avatars, it confuses me.
And it doesnt matter because that demographic doesn't have disposable income, their parents do and their parents might buy them a film here or there to shut their faces on holiday, but they aren't going to do it in the long term when the DVD is probably the exact same price.
But they do have a download service now. So maybe saying movie carts was the wrong way to say it, but I don't think they would have pushed the 3D movie trailers unless they were interested in actually putting their movies out there.
Yes, it may be small screen, but at the same time its portable 3D. That puts it in a slightly different category than UMDs.
Sony claimed the PS2 had a viable network service. They say stuff. I mean Im sure there are movie studios salivating at being able to play movies on a potential 100 million strong audience, I'm just going to do a Pachter and say that won't happen. Someone who wants to watch Avatar 3D isn't going to want to watch it on a DS. Let alone for the what? 2 hours, 3 hours running time? I mean you have to hold it in your view, I've not seen a stand peripheral yet, and then you get to the sound quality.
I just dont think its going to be a HUGE thing.
Most likely. It certainly doesn't hurt Nintendo to mention it, though.
I wonder where the PSP would be now if not for UMD movies. They flopped, but the PSP kind of flopped to a lesser extent as well. While they were still semi-relevent, did they serve to give the PSP a significant boost?
jothki on
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Warlock82Never pet a burning dogRegistered Userregular
Most likely. It certainly doesn't hurt Nintendo to mention it, though.
I wonder where the PSP would be now if not for UMD movies. They flopped, but the PSP kind of flopped to a lesser extent as well. While they were still semi-relevent, did they serve to give the PSP a significant boost?
If Sony manufactured the UMDs themselves I'm sure they made some money off that alone, whether or not they actually sold well.
Most likely. It certainly doesn't hurt Nintendo to mention it, though.
I wonder where the PSP would be now if not for UMD movies. They flopped, but the PSP kind of flopped to a lesser extent as well. While they were still semi-relevent, did they serve to give the PSP a significant boost?
If Sony manufactured the UMDs themselves I'm sure they made some money off that alone, whether or not they actually sold well.
Even if you manufacture something yourself, manufacturing cost is still manufacturing cost. Not to mention most of the movies absolutely rotted on the shelves and had to be remaindered out.
Sony - B+: For the second year in a row, Sony was all about games, showing many strong titles. The problem was that too many of the games shown were either shown at last year's E3, already released in Japan(in the case of some PSP games), or widely known about through long ago prior media releases. And of course in one case that need not be named, shown at E3 2006 and every E3 since then. Twisted Metal unveiling was top notch and looks to be a great game.
Hmm? GT5 was the only game that qualifies for that, wasn't it? The real problem was that Sony announced pretty much their entire lineup in the 3-4 months leading up to E3 (specifically Infamous 2, Killzone 3, LBP2, Motorstorm 3, GoW: Ghost of Sparta and SOCOM 4).
Otherwise though, I agree with you.
You should check out the EA, Ubisoft and Konami ones. I liked EA's one but then I don't mind shooters, Ubisoft's one was a bizarre mix of awesome (Rayman, Project Dust) with bizarre shit (Laser tag!) and Konami's one is the worst thing I've ever seen.
By 'his company', I think he's talking about Lionhead, not a company that Molyneux used to co-own/work at.
But yeah, I think Lionhead's made a couple of good games since they were founded, Molyneux's just prone to making games that'll never live up to his (and to be fair, the media's) absurd hyperbole. I nicknamed that sort of hype the Molyneux Effect last year, it seemed like a fitting term for all of Molyneux's games, Spore and Scribblenauts.
I honestly think the best thing that's come out of Lionhead's actually been Media Molecule.
We talked about how Steamworks was Valve's "surprise" at the Sony conference, but Sony's presentation was surprising for one other reason: proclamations of adoration from Electronic Arts, and by John Schappert no less - the same John Schappert who, just last year, was telling people about the magic of software vis a vis the 360. Are there only ten people who can do these jobs? Because when the same pool of squat men shuffle back and forth between these companies, I can never remember if it's Eurasia I'm supposed to hate, or if it's Eastasia, or what. First it was the revolving door between Microsoft and EA, and now EA takes to the stage to tell us about the abiding love they have for Playstation platforms, even though they routinely sell more copies of their games on the competing system. I honestly have no idea what to make of this stuff. But I have every expectation that I'm going to open my cupboard tomorrow morning, and John Schappert is going to be hunched down in there.
Nutella will be everywhere.
Now that he mentions it, that confuses the fuck out of me too.
Could be Tycho didn't bother to actually check his facts. EA's revenue is regularly pretty even between the two. Add in Microsoft getting cozy with Activision and it actually does make a bit of sense that EA headed for Sony.
Oh and I forgot to post this bit from the interview Couscous quoted from earlier:
WSJ: What's the best career advice you've gotten, and why?
Mr. Kotick: I've been very, very lucky, because I've had so many great mentors. Very early on, when I was in my twenties, Steve Jobs convinced me to quit college. He talked to me after I had spent about a year in Michigan, studying the history of art. I don't think he would even remember some of the things that he said. They were so insightful. One thing he said was, "You're studying the history of art. You don't even get to see the paintings. Why would you be doing that? You have a company, you're making Apple software, and you're an entrepreneur. Don't waste your time on college. Go, run your company." And that was really good advice. I quit college, and I started this company, so that was great.
Steve Jobs - Secretly responsible for everything bad in the world.
When a new input mechanism comes out -- Wii, Natal, Move, etc -- it's going to take the industry a few years to learn how to use it well and reliably. Games for more experienced players tend to require a greater breadth and depth of gameplay mechanics, and such a larger number of mechanics represents a greater opportunity to make mistakes and implement something annoying or unusable.
"Casual" games teach game developers what works and what doesn't, and they can apply that experience to making better games for experienced players. Developers can take more risk and try to implement and play-test and tune a whole bunch of new game mechanics for this kind of complex game, or they can play it safe and wait for a year or two of "casual" games to demonstrate what works and what doesn't.
So I think for any new input method, it's going to take a couple years before we start seeing the kinds of games we like in any great number.
I'm no genius for observing that: that's kinda what's happened with the Wii. A cynic might say "lots of casual games and shovelware, a small number of excellent and larger number of mediocre non-casual games" when describing the last couple years of Wii software.
Do we think that'll also describe the next couple years of Move / Kinect software?
mspencer on
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I'm no genius for observing that: that's kinda what's happened with the Wii. A cynic might say "lots of casual games and shovelware, a small number of excellent and larger number of mediocre non-casual games" when describing the last couple years of Wii software.
Do we think that'll also describe the next couple years of Move / Kinect software?
RE the first comment, you could say this about any successful hardware. NES, PS2, whatever. The top console always has tons of crap.
RE: Move/Kinect: One would hope that devs would take what they've learned with the Wii and apply it to these new fangled things. Especially move, since it's very similar to the Wii.
Cameron_Talley on
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I'd almost be willing to pay up to $250 for the 3DS but at that threshold I would be scrutinizing every aspect of it to determine whether or not I would really enjoy having it take up additional pocket space.
But I didn't come here to talk about the 3DS at the moment. This is my forecast for Kinect.
The factors that will help sell Kinect are:
Xbox Live
It's becoming a nicely integrated system of media related programs. Some of it is questionable like ESPN and Netflix because this would be competing against cable subscriptions and TIVO but overall these additions augmented by no hassle video chat, facebook and last.fm ensure people won't think too hard about the questionable aspects.
All potential future intended purchasers of WiiFit+.
Games like Rock Band and Wii Fit already show off the fact people are willing to shell out around $100 for software and the supporting peripheral to use it. The only real barrier for these people is the price point of the 360 to the Wii even if Kinect is $150. This should not be confused with other people who look to buy fitness products that only rely on software like EA Active. These purchasers are more likely to be budget conscious people and won't see Kinect+360 as an acceptable purchase no matter how awesome Your Shape is.
Kinect software
I actually found some the Kinect Line up compelling. Child of Eden looks amazing. Kinectimals is a bit of risk because the kid can't carry around their virtual pet but the level of interaction implied by the fake demo and Milo give it a good chance of selling decently. I have a hard time not seeing Dance Central being viewed as a killer app and looking at the buzz it has in the news and on forums it is the only thing that has made Kinect look good.
The factors that will hinder Kinect sales are:
How Microsoft is lacking in gravitas. Apple has it and MS doesn't. Even Nintendo carries a greater cultural cachet than MS.
I won't talk about how MS left me with this impression but instead focus on the results that support this impression. When Nintendo presented the Wii, news media from a wide variety of sources was talking about it and the discussion in forums varied greatly from the possibilities it offered to the wacky name to the discourse over whether or not Nintendo was moving away from its core audience.
The buzz surrounding Kinect these days are far more muted and overwhelmingly focused in gaming centric blogs and news outlets. This doesn't bode well for a marketing campaign that shelled out a lot of money to acquire Cirque Du Soleil and broadcasting rights in Times Square. Frankly I believe almost the entire marketing campaign was misspent and misguided.
Users who rely heavily on online communities or solitary gamers.
An example of this is the existing 360 user who has a group of family and friends they never could successfully get into gaming in the first place. As a result the thought of paying $120+ for a new controller doesn't appeal to them. The only way to convince such people otherwise is to make compelling software such as the way expensive arcade sticks sell to players of SSFIV or word of online mouth spreads among those willing to give Kinect a shot that they managed to convert their friends and families into regular users now that Kinect has removed several interface barriers.
MS conference presented a majority of software that will make people second guess the overall product.
Star wars. On rails.
Next failure.
Your Shape Evolved. Image damaged because of first gen Your Shape out on the Wii which is already looked at as a mediocre brand compared to Wii Fit or EA Active and lacks the fitness star power of other mediocre fitness software to cover up for its perceived shortcomings.
Next failure.
Metal Gear Rising: Now you can cut watermelons. People who are familiar with Kojima know better; but to the uninitiated Microsoft was trying to reach out to, this was beyond terrible.
Next failure.
Two Racing products premiered. Neither one very interesting and taking away time from correcting some badly explained concepts or showing off something better.
Alienation of their core consumers.
There are a rare moments in a company's lifetime where they should realistically consider ignoring their existing fanbase. Stupidly Microsoft already had the attention and faith of a fanbase that were interested in what Natal could offer. This is a community that stuck by them by large even with the RRoD of debacle. MS instead of evangelizing them purposefully shunned them for different crowds and the discontent is apparent. IMO this won't be amended until the day MS creates a first party FPS IP that incorporates dual aiming that is mildly above Halo and Gears on the fun factor and makes some sort of half assed apology for their behavior.
Right now Kinect is going very strong on Amazon for preorders which I have always felt was a reliable indicator of performance at other stores.
Despite that I have to say Kinect sales will be pretty strong at the start but most likely will fall below Microsoft's expectations for initial hardware penetration. Unless they publicly disclose that it will be impossible to tell if this prediction came true. After that initial rush of sales the Kinect will under perform and proof of that will be slim disparity of Kinect prices on Ebay to existing retail prices by the time December rolls around. Kinect will continue to under perform and the only thing that can save it are the next wave of software that is supposed to come out from February next your to June. If those games don't sell like the majority of Wii shovelware then Kinect will become an embarrassment that will only be corrected by Microsoft itself creating first party software that pushes forward the usability of the hardware like an improved video conferencing infrastrucutre and games like the dual aiming FPS I mentioned earlier.
But this is Microsoft and first party software has been their weak point for a long time.
Firstly: Metal Gear Rising was not and is not being presented as a connect (edit- wow, I wrote that without even thinking. Microsoft marketing either has won or lost. Kinect) game. They're looking at and considering move/kinect, but traditional controls are the game's focus.
When a new input mechanism comes out -- Wii, Natal, Move, etc -- it's going to take the industry a few years to learn how to use it well and reliably. Games for more experienced players tend to require a greater breadth and depth of gameplay mechanics, and such a larger number of mechanics represents a greater opportunity to make mistakes and implement something annoying or unusable.
"Casual" games teach game developers what works and what doesn't, and they can apply that experience to making better games for experienced players. Developers can take more risk and try to implement and play-test and tune a whole bunch of new game mechanics for this kind of complex game, or they can play it safe and wait for a year or two of "casual" games to demonstrate what works and what doesn't.
So I think for any new input method, it's going to take a couple years before we start seeing the kinds of games we like in any great number.
I'm no genius for observing that: that's kinda what's happened with the Wii. A cynic might say "lots of casual games and shovelware, a small number of excellent and larger number of mediocre non-casual games" when describing the last couple years of Wii software.
Do we think that'll also describe the next couple years of Move / Kinect software?
I agree. The advantage that the Wii had, was that it was Nintendo. Somehow everything they've tried to do off the wall has worked. They know how to work with it. The strange N64 and GC controllers. The DS, the Wii, Nintendo went with the tech because somehow they know how to make it work when so many others get it wrong. If only they could figure out ithat new internet doo dad.
It seems Microsoft itself isn't really sure how to use it. HMX seems to have a clue though. Then again, everybody I know is talking about getting a 360 and Kinnect.
Right now Kinect is going very strong on Amazon for preorders which I have always felt was a reliable indicator of performance at other stores.
I'm surprised at how well it's doing on Amazon. It's currently the 2nd best selling thing in the videogame category and apparently is was in the #1 spot earlier. And this is with the tenative price of $150 - if the official price ends up at $100, we could have another Wii on our hands.
I think what a lot of us are forgetting with stuff like Kinect & the 3DS is just how cool these technologies are going to appear to the average non-gamer. A videogame system that lets you control it just by waving your hand or speaking? A game system that displays visuals in 3D without glasses? These are the kinds of thing that have previously only been the realm of science fiction. I think there's a good chance that the sheer coolness factor could outweigh failings like high price tags or software library deficits.
Kinnect will not cost (rumoured) $150 for the people MS is targeting. It will cost $150 + cost of a 360 or whatever a XBox 360 bundle might cost.
I'd mentioned this before but for one 'casual' person the cost is not $80 (Wii remote + nunchuck + WM+) vs. $129 (Move + eye + sub) vs. $150 (rumoured Kinnect). It is $20 (WM+) vs. $129 + PS3 vs. $150 + XBox 360.
Casual people already have a Wii they most likely don't have a PS3 or XBox.
*Edit* Then again I could be wrong. Now that I think of it there are probably PS3s or 360s out there in homes were one user uses it and Kinnect/Move could be used to expand it to the rest of the household. Might not do much to sell consoles but could help the peripherals find some success.
Dritz on
There I was, 3DS: 2621-2671-9899 (Ekera), Wii U: LostCrescendo
I'd buy Kinect at $100, not even have seen anything. A 360 controller is $50 right? And its bound to have some sort of game/tech demo with it. Even for just when I turn it on my Ipod, and to play with. $150 is getting pricey for something that hasn't blown me away.
Kinnect will not cost (rumoured) $150 for the people MS is targeting. It will cost $150 + cost of a 360 or whatever a XBox 360 bundle might cost.
I'd mentioned this before but for one 'casual' person the cost is not $80 (Wii remote + nunchuck + WM+) vs. $129 (Move + eye + sub) vs. $150 (rumoured Kinnect). It is $20 (WM+) vs. $129 + PS3 vs. $150 + XBox 360.
Casual people already have a Wii they most likely don't have a PS3 or XBox.
*Edit* Then again I could be wrong. Now that I think of it there are probably PS3s or 360s out there in homes were one user uses it and Kinnect/Move could be used to expand it to the rest of the household.
All the casuals I've seen talking about it are planning on buying a 360.
And let's not forget the crowd that is perpetually searching for the ideal workout. If Kinect gets a good exercise game, I could see some sales just from that. $350-$400 isn't that much more expensive than the $340 that a Wii+Wii Fit used to be going for.
So I'm listening to the Bombcast talk about Rockband 3. It sounds quite cool but I guess we are going to find out if the Guitar controllers being simpler was a big part of the original success of Guitar Hero.
I think that boat has sailed. This is the kind of audience they are now banking on.
Rock Band 3 is going to be a pretty revolutionary thing as far as music games go, hell, as far as games go. And they've done a brilliant job so far of easing people in.
Firstly: Metal Gear Rising was not and is not being presented as a connect (edit- wow, I wrote that without even thinking. Microsoft marketing either has won or lost. Kinect) game. They're looking at and considering move/kinect, but traditional controls are the game's focus.
And secondly it looks fucking awesome.
Seriously. 'People who are familiar with Kojima know better'? What, that he makes good games? Or that he's not even directing MGS Rising, Shuyo Murata (ZOE, ZOE2 and MGS4 co-director) is?
RB3 has blown everybodies minds that I've told about the pro mode aspect. A lot of people with kids are thinking about picking it up in case they want to/are learning the real instruments.
RB3 has blown everybodies minds that I've told about the pro mode aspect. A lot of people with kids are thinking about picking it up in case they want to/are learning the real instruments.
Same here
I'm also friends with a couple of guitarists that always...well, they didn't scoff at the idea of Rock Band, they thought it was cool that it made people appreciate music more, but they play actual guitar, so they just never bothered.
RB3 has blown everybodies minds that I've told about the pro mode aspect. A lot of people with kids are thinking about picking it up in case they want to/are learning the real instruments.
Same here
I'm also friends with a couple of guitarists that always...well, they didn't scoff at the idea of Rock Band, they thought it was cool that it made people appreciate music more, but they play actual guitar, so they just never bothered.
They're both gonna buy RB3
I don't see how anybody could scoff rock band. I use to play guitar, now just pick it up every once and again. And I've loved the feel of the GH series and RB. In a lot of ways, it felt like playing a real guitar. With RB I've found my enjoyment for music again as I have taken up learning the drums. I've told some people whose kids drumsets were being unused to try out rockband. It helped some of those kids enjoy their kits, or the family had a blast playing it. Its good for the music Genre both from music sales, to kids (and adults) being inspired to learn
And let's not forget the crowd that is perpetually searching for the ideal workout. If Kinect gets a good exercise game, I could see some sales just from that. $350-$400 isn't that much more expensive than the $340 that a Wii+Wii Fit used to be going for.
I guess you have a point. Plus entertainment is really hard to figure out. People seem to have a really hard time holding back from spending even if they can't afford it. Still even Wii fit was only so successful and a lot of sales were probably to existing Wii owners. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of that actually.
Dritz on
There I was, 3DS: 2621-2671-9899 (Ekera), Wii U: LostCrescendo
And let's not forget the crowd that is perpetually searching for the ideal workout. If Kinect gets a good exercise game, I could see some sales just from that. $350-$400 isn't that much more expensive than the $340 that a Wii+Wii Fit used to be going for.
I guess you have a point. Plus entertainment is really hard to figure out. People seem to have a really hard time holding back from spending even if they can't afford it. Still even Wii fit was only so successful and a lot of sales were probably to existing Wii owners. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of that actually.
Are we going to be using 'system seller' as a measuring stick?
I think a lot of people are overestimating Kinect. My feeling is that it is going to be extremely hamstrung by how similar a lot of its' games are to Wii games, ultimately.
Before Wii, a great many people had never played games through motion. Kinect may offer motion games without a controller but so much of what we've seen is so similar to Wii games on a surface level that it's unlikely to be as novel.
People, I think, forget that at least part of the initial success of the Wii (especially at launch) was the people who are Nintendo fans who always pick up their console day one (Twilight Princess obviously helped in this regard). And much of their success was built not just from marketing muscle, but from great word-of-mouth. Unless one of their games hits a sweet spot in terms of being really good and really feeling new like Wii Sports, they're unlikely to have the kind of success they want with it.
But the biggest problem is that they're not entering a hitherto untapped market. They're trying to tap into an already heavily tapped market. Not only are they competing in the specific genres they have with a much cheaper console (Wii), but during the holiday period they're going to be fighting with huge games from every publisher in the world. Not to mention that if Sony does indeed launch Move a month beforehand, you're going to have that additional competition in the space to contend with.
Right now Kinect is going very strong on Amazon for preorders which I have always felt was a reliable indicator of performance at other stores.
I'm surprised at how well it's doing on Amazon. It's currently the 2nd best selling thing in the videogame category and apparently is was in the #1 spot earlier. And this is with the tenative price of $150 - if the official price ends up at $100, we could have another Wii on our hands.
I think what a lot of us are forgetting with stuff like Kinect & the 3DS is just how cool these technologies are going to appear to the average non-gamer. A videogame system that lets you control it just by waving your hand or speaking? A game system that displays visuals in 3D without glasses? These are the kinds of thing that have previously only been the realm of science fiction. I think there's a good chance that the sheer coolness factor could outweigh failings like high price tags or software library deficits.
Doooooomed..
Has there been any word about letting Indies use it? Also, Child of Eden. If a game could ever sell hardware, that is it. Even still, i'm starting to read a good few positive opinions for the more readily dismissed stuff, too.
Kinectimals, the game with the stupid name sure, but even a bitter old git like me wants to try it out. The tiger is the most 'dumb-looking' from those I've seen so far, the video on Live Marketplace shows some more, as well as some activities you can do with your pet, like some sort of assault course with balancing, jumping etc.
In fact, all the games look much better in the Marketplace videos - once you get those higher-quality vids, you forget how much nicer 360 games look compared to when you are watching a squashed crappy E3 stream. And the extra graphical sheen certainly makes them more appealing, or inviting. Rare seem to be polishing these nicely. I mean, Kinectimals looks almost like the environment was ripped straight from Viva Pinata (it probably was) one of the nicest looking games of the last few years. Kinect Sports again really benefits from a decent quality video.
The problem for me is not the potential price of Kinect, it is the price of these games...
Right now Kinect is going very strong on Amazon for preorders which I have always felt was a reliable indicator of performance at other stores.
I'm surprised at how well it's doing on Amazon. It's currently the 2nd best selling thing in the videogame category and apparently is was in the #1 spot earlier. And this is with the tenative price of $150 - if the official price ends up at $100, we could have another Wii on our hands.
I think what a lot of us are forgetting with stuff like Kinect & the 3DS is just how cool these technologies are going to appear to the average non-gamer. A videogame system that lets you control it just by waving your hand or speaking? A game system that displays visuals in 3D without glasses? These are the kinds of thing that have previously only been the realm of science fiction. I think there's a good chance that the sheer coolness factor could outweigh failings like high price tags or software library deficits.
Doooooomed..
Has there been any word about letting Indies use it? Also, Child of Eden. If a game could ever sell hardware, that is it. Even still, i'm starting to read a good few positive opinions for the more readily dismissed stuff, too.
Isn't Child of Eden multiplatform anyway? And it can be controlled with traditional controls on both 360 and PS3?
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But they do have a download service now. So maybe saying movie carts was the wrong way to say it, but I don't think they would have pushed the 3D movie trailers unless they were interested in actually putting their movies out there.
Yes, it may be small screen, but at the same time its portable 3D. That puts it in a slightly different category than UMDs.
There's a difference between rebuying old films purely "to watch on the go" and buying 3D versions of films. I mean, this is a hell of a lot cheaper alternative to see, say, 3D Avatar than buying one of those $3000 TV sets...
Sony claimed the PS2 had a viable network service. They say stuff. I mean Im sure there are movie studios salivating at being able to play movies on a potential 100 million strong audience, I'm just going to do a Pachter and say that won't happen. Someone who wants to watch Avatar 3D isn't going to want to watch it on a DS. Let alone for the what? 2 hours, 3 hours running time? I mean you have to hold it in your view, I've not seen a stand peripheral yet, and then you get to the sound quality.
I just dont think its going to be a HUGE thing.
Nintendo doesn't rush anything due to anyone. They are on top, and a phone with some bad games is not going to change that.
Most likely. It certainly doesn't hurt Nintendo to mention it, though.
I wonder where the PSP would be now if not for UMD movies. They flopped, but the PSP kind of flopped to a lesser extent as well. While they were still semi-relevent, did they serve to give the PSP a significant boost?
If Sony manufactured the UMDs themselves I'm sure they made some money off that alone, whether or not they actually sold well.
Even if you manufacture something yourself, manufacturing cost is still manufacturing cost. Not to mention most of the movies absolutely rotted on the shelves and had to be remaindered out.
Hmm? GT5 was the only game that qualifies for that, wasn't it? The real problem was that Sony announced pretty much their entire lineup in the 3-4 months leading up to E3 (specifically Infamous 2, Killzone 3, LBP2, Motorstorm 3, GoW: Ghost of Sparta and SOCOM 4).
Otherwise though, I agree with you.
You should check out the EA, Ubisoft and Konami ones. I liked EA's one but then I don't mind shooters, Ubisoft's one was a bizarre mix of awesome (Rayman, Project Dust) with bizarre shit (Laser tag!) and Konami's one is the worst thing I've ever seen.
By 'his company', I think he's talking about Lionhead, not a company that Molyneux used to co-own/work at.
But yeah, I think Lionhead's made a couple of good games since they were founded, Molyneux's just prone to making games that'll never live up to his (and to be fair, the media's) absurd hyperbole. I nicknamed that sort of hype the Molyneux Effect last year, it seemed like a fitting term for all of Molyneux's games, Spore and Scribblenauts.
I honestly think the best thing that's come out of Lionhead's actually been Media Molecule.
Could be Tycho didn't bother to actually check his facts. EA's revenue is regularly pretty even between the two. Add in Microsoft getting cozy with Activision and it actually does make a bit of sense that EA headed for Sony.
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When a new input mechanism comes out -- Wii, Natal, Move, etc -- it's going to take the industry a few years to learn how to use it well and reliably. Games for more experienced players tend to require a greater breadth and depth of gameplay mechanics, and such a larger number of mechanics represents a greater opportunity to make mistakes and implement something annoying or unusable.
"Casual" games teach game developers what works and what doesn't, and they can apply that experience to making better games for experienced players. Developers can take more risk and try to implement and play-test and tune a whole bunch of new game mechanics for this kind of complex game, or they can play it safe and wait for a year or two of "casual" games to demonstrate what works and what doesn't.
So I think for any new input method, it's going to take a couple years before we start seeing the kinds of games we like in any great number.
I'm no genius for observing that: that's kinda what's happened with the Wii. A cynic might say "lots of casual games and shovelware, a small number of excellent and larger number of mediocre non-casual games" when describing the last couple years of Wii software.
Do we think that'll also describe the next couple years of Move / Kinect software?
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RE the first comment, you could say this about any successful hardware. NES, PS2, whatever. The top console always has tons of crap.
RE: Move/Kinect: One would hope that devs would take what they've learned with the Wii and apply it to these new fangled things. Especially move, since it's very similar to the Wii.
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But I didn't come here to talk about the 3DS at the moment. This is my forecast for Kinect.
The factors that will help sell Kinect are:
It's becoming a nicely integrated system of media related programs. Some of it is questionable like ESPN and Netflix because this would be competing against cable subscriptions and TIVO but overall these additions augmented by no hassle video chat, facebook and last.fm ensure people won't think too hard about the questionable aspects.
Games like Rock Band and Wii Fit already show off the fact people are willing to shell out around $100 for software and the supporting peripheral to use it. The only real barrier for these people is the price point of the 360 to the Wii even if Kinect is $150. This should not be confused with other people who look to buy fitness products that only rely on software like EA Active. These purchasers are more likely to be budget conscious people and won't see Kinect+360 as an acceptable purchase no matter how awesome Your Shape is.
I actually found some the Kinect Line up compelling. Child of Eden looks amazing. Kinectimals is a bit of risk because the kid can't carry around their virtual pet but the level of interaction implied by the fake demo and Milo give it a good chance of selling decently. I have a hard time not seeing Dance Central being viewed as a killer app and looking at the buzz it has in the news and on forums it is the only thing that has made Kinect look good.
The factors that will hinder Kinect sales are:
I won't talk about how MS left me with this impression but instead focus on the results that support this impression. When Nintendo presented the Wii, news media from a wide variety of sources was talking about it and the discussion in forums varied greatly from the possibilities it offered to the wacky name to the discourse over whether or not Nintendo was moving away from its core audience.
The buzz surrounding Kinect these days are far more muted and overwhelmingly focused in gaming centric blogs and news outlets. This doesn't bode well for a marketing campaign that shelled out a lot of money to acquire Cirque Du Soleil and broadcasting rights in Times Square. Frankly I believe almost the entire marketing campaign was misspent and misguided.
An example of this is the existing 360 user who has a group of family and friends they never could successfully get into gaming in the first place. As a result the thought of paying $120+ for a new controller doesn't appeal to them. The only way to convince such people otherwise is to make compelling software such as the way expensive arcade sticks sell to players of SSFIV or word of online mouth spreads among those willing to give Kinect a shot that they managed to convert their friends and families into regular users now that Kinect has removed several interface barriers.
Star wars. On rails.
Next failure.
Your Shape Evolved. Image damaged because of first gen Your Shape out on the Wii which is already looked at as a mediocre brand compared to Wii Fit or EA Active and lacks the fitness star power of other mediocre fitness software to cover up for its perceived shortcomings.
Next failure.
Metal Gear Rising: Now you can cut watermelons. People who are familiar with Kojima know better; but to the uninitiated Microsoft was trying to reach out to, this was beyond terrible.
Next failure.
Two Racing products premiered. Neither one very interesting and taking away time from correcting some badly explained concepts or showing off something better.
There are a rare moments in a company's lifetime where they should realistically consider ignoring their existing fanbase. Stupidly Microsoft already had the attention and faith of a fanbase that were interested in what Natal could offer. This is a community that stuck by them by large even with the RRoD of debacle. MS instead of evangelizing them purposefully shunned them for different crowds and the discontent is apparent. IMO this won't be amended until the day MS creates a first party FPS IP that incorporates dual aiming that is mildly above Halo and Gears on the fun factor and makes some sort of half assed apology for their behavior.
Right now Kinect is going very strong on Amazon for preorders which I have always felt was a reliable indicator of performance at other stores.
Despite that I have to say Kinect sales will be pretty strong at the start but most likely will fall below Microsoft's expectations for initial hardware penetration. Unless they publicly disclose that it will be impossible to tell if this prediction came true. After that initial rush of sales the Kinect will under perform and proof of that will be slim disparity of Kinect prices on Ebay to existing retail prices by the time December rolls around. Kinect will continue to under perform and the only thing that can save it are the next wave of software that is supposed to come out from February next your to June. If those games don't sell like the majority of Wii shovelware then Kinect will become an embarrassment that will only be corrected by Microsoft itself creating first party software that pushes forward the usability of the hardware like an improved video conferencing infrastrucutre and games like the dual aiming FPS I mentioned earlier.
But this is Microsoft and first party software has been their weak point for a long time.
And secondly it looks fucking awesome.
I agree. The advantage that the Wii had, was that it was Nintendo. Somehow everything they've tried to do off the wall has worked. They know how to work with it. The strange N64 and GC controllers. The DS, the Wii, Nintendo went with the tech because somehow they know how to make it work when so many others get it wrong. If only they could figure out ithat new internet doo dad.
It seems Microsoft itself isn't really sure how to use it. HMX seems to have a clue though. Then again, everybody I know is talking about getting a 360 and Kinnect.
I'm surprised at how well it's doing on Amazon. It's currently the 2nd best selling thing in the videogame category and apparently is was in the #1 spot earlier. And this is with the tenative price of $150 - if the official price ends up at $100, we could have another Wii on our hands.
I think what a lot of us are forgetting with stuff like Kinect & the 3DS is just how cool these technologies are going to appear to the average non-gamer. A videogame system that lets you control it just by waving your hand or speaking? A game system that displays visuals in 3D without glasses? These are the kinds of thing that have previously only been the realm of science fiction. I think there's a good chance that the sheer coolness factor could outweigh failings like high price tags or software library deficits.
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5. People in the target market do not own 360s
Kinnect will not cost (rumoured) $150 for the people MS is targeting. It will cost $150 + cost of a 360 or whatever a XBox 360 bundle might cost.
I'd mentioned this before but for one 'casual' person the cost is not $80 (Wii remote + nunchuck + WM+) vs. $129 (Move + eye + sub) vs. $150 (rumoured Kinnect). It is $20 (WM+) vs. $129 + PS3 vs. $150 + XBox 360.
Casual people already have a Wii they most likely don't have a PS3 or XBox.
*Edit* Then again I could be wrong. Now that I think of it there are probably PS3s or 360s out there in homes were one user uses it and Kinnect/Move could be used to expand it to the rest of the household. Might not do much to sell consoles but could help the peripherals find some success.
All the casuals I've seen talking about it are planning on buying a 360.
Well, unless you're hiring prostitutes to play it for you/with you.
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I think that boat has sailed. This is the kind of audience they are now banking on.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i50jKW1b8HM
Rock Band 3 is going to be a pretty revolutionary thing as far as music games go, hell, as far as games go. And they've done a brilliant job so far of easing people in.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_PqZofBPWg
Seriously. 'People who are familiar with Kojima know better'? What, that he makes good games? Or that he's not even directing MGS Rising, Shuyo Murata (ZOE, ZOE2 and MGS4 co-director) is?
Same here
I'm also friends with a couple of guitarists that always...well, they didn't scoff at the idea of Rock Band, they thought it was cool that it made people appreciate music more, but they play actual guitar, so they just never bothered.
They're both gonna buy RB3
I don't see how anybody could scoff rock band. I use to play guitar, now just pick it up every once and again. And I've loved the feel of the GH series and RB. In a lot of ways, it felt like playing a real guitar. With RB I've found my enjoyment for music again as I have taken up learning the drums. I've told some people whose kids drumsets were being unused to try out rockband. It helped some of those kids enjoy their kits, or the family had a blast playing it. Its good for the music Genre both from music sales, to kids (and adults) being inspired to learn
I guess you have a point. Plus entertainment is really hard to figure out. People seem to have a really hard time holding back from spending even if they can't afford it. Still even Wii fit was only so successful and a lot of sales were probably to existing Wii owners. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of that actually.
Are we going to be using 'system seller' as a measuring stick?
This reminded me of how absolutely amazing Monkey Island's music is/was.
Great. Now I need to track down all those games, including the Telltale ones.
Edit: Also, I swear that sounds like Santa from the later Futurama episodes (not John Goodman).
Before Wii, a great many people had never played games through motion. Kinect may offer motion games without a controller but so much of what we've seen is so similar to Wii games on a surface level that it's unlikely to be as novel.
People, I think, forget that at least part of the initial success of the Wii (especially at launch) was the people who are Nintendo fans who always pick up their console day one (Twilight Princess obviously helped in this regard). And much of their success was built not just from marketing muscle, but from great word-of-mouth. Unless one of their games hits a sweet spot in terms of being really good and really feeling new like Wii Sports, they're unlikely to have the kind of success they want with it.
But the biggest problem is that they're not entering a hitherto untapped market. They're trying to tap into an already heavily tapped market. Not only are they competing in the specific genres they have with a much cheaper console (Wii), but during the holiday period they're going to be fighting with huge games from every publisher in the world. Not to mention that if Sony does indeed launch Move a month beforehand, you're going to have that additional competition in the space to contend with.
Doooooomed..
Has there been any word about letting Indies use it? Also, Child of Eden. If a game could ever sell hardware, that is it. Even still, i'm starting to read a good few positive opinions for the more readily dismissed stuff, too.
So basically Nintendo stole everyone's lunch.
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In fact, all the games look much better in the Marketplace videos - once you get those higher-quality vids, you forget how much nicer 360 games look compared to when you are watching a squashed crappy E3 stream. And the extra graphical sheen certainly makes them more appealing, or inviting. Rare seem to be polishing these nicely. I mean, Kinectimals looks almost like the environment was ripped straight from Viva Pinata (it probably was) one of the nicest looking games of the last few years. Kinect Sports again really benefits from a decent quality video.
The problem for me is not the potential price of Kinect, it is the price of these games...
Also, there's been an HD version of the trailer on YouTube since it was announced, no real need to watch it on the E3 stream.
Isn't Child of Eden multiplatform anyway? And it can be controlled with traditional controls on both 360 and PS3?
Fixed!
And drank their milkshake?
It's weird. After all these big name titles being unveiled at E3, it's a little game like this that really stands out.
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