Honestly I'd bet that we're already past the point of a downgrade. Unless a miracle happens, I can't imagine any credit rating agency giving the US a AAA in good faith.
The main question right now is "Can we make it plausible enough and call in enough favors that rating agencies will give us a AAA in bad faith?"
Seriously if any business showed this kind of behavior and even hinted at defaulting on credit obligations they wouldn't stop at a drop to AA.
I think that if the 14th proves to be a legal end run around the debt ceiling with respect to paying out debtors, that there should be no cause to reduce our credit rating. Ever.
Let's try this a different way. You tell me what actions you want the president to take, and I'll tell you why the "opinion of the American internal court system" matters.
You really aren't getting the fact that this has spread beyond U.S. internal politics. I'm sure there are a bunch of nice laws on the books in Argentina and Russia. Did not protect them. We're beyond the point where batting around legal precedent is going to mollify our creditors.
As to what the president should do? He should make some strong signal to the international markets that the U.S. will not default on any of its obligations, under any circumstances. He could invoke the 14th Amendment and drag out the inevitable court case until the world simmers down a bit.
Presuming it works, the debt ceiling effectively becomes non-binding, which is attractive.
There's no threat of impeachment, since the Senate is Democratic. So it's just SCOTUS. It's time for some "are five people really crazy enough to cause global financial crisis? Stay tuned!"
Well, a Supreme Court challenge takes time right? So invoking the 14th Amendment as a last minute default-staving measure, even if it's eventually struck down, buys some time.
It really doesn't, not in terms of default but in terms of solvency. If SCOTUS looks as if it might fail to accept it when the nonapproved bonds are first issued, they are going to have to have some really high yields. So Obama might have to have a chat with the Supremes the day it happens.
Presuming it works, the debt ceiling effectively becomes non-binding, which is attractive.
There's no threat of impeachment, since the Senate is Democratic. So it's just SCOTUS. It's time for some "are five people really crazy enough to cause global financial crisis? Stay tuned!"
Well, a Supreme Court challenge takes time right? So invoking the 14th Amendment as a last minute default-staving measure, even if it's eventually struck down, buys some time.
I think it would make it onto the docket in a hurry. Not that it would matter a lot. What would the value of the debt be if there's a significant (>50% by my estimation) chance that it will be declared to be toilet paper a year down the road? Actually, the longer the case goes the worse it gets, because that means more and more debt will have to be issued under dubious authority and at high costs.
Thought it might be useful to have some links to the original documents involved in this discussion. This isn't a complete list because I don't have the time right now, but I hope to add more when time permits.
The 2011 Appropriations Bill, which authorizes the treasury to release the funds necessary to fund the budget.
The U.S. code allowing the treasury to borrow funds in certain situations. This is where the debt limit is written into law, as well as other restrictions on how Congress authorizes the treasury to borrow.
The Congress shall have power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;
Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.
Section 5. The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.
Also, I literally can't believe the fucking Tea Party is what's going to destroy this country.
Well it makes sense in a way.
There's a certain poeticness to it. The Boston Tea Party is seen as an iconic, symbolic point in the creation of our country; now, the modern Tea Party is going to destroy it.
Also, I literally can't believe the fucking Tea Party is what's going to destroy this country.
Well it makes sense in a way.
There's a certain poeticness to it. The Boston Tea Party is seen as an iconic, symbolic point in the creation of our country; now, the modern Tea Party is going to destroy it.
Ironically enough by trying to get back to the 'virtues' or 'values' or what have you that the original Tea Party was supposed to have.
It all ends up with a bunch of drunk middle-aged dudes having a good time, mirite?
Also, I literally can't believe the fucking Tea Party is what's going to destroy this country.
Well it makes sense in a way.
There's a certain poeticness to it. The Boston Tea Party is seen as an iconic, symbolic point in the creation of our country; now, the modern Tea Party is going to destroy it.
I can only hope that the modern Tea Party also attempts to blame their drunken vandalism and acts of economic sabotage on Indians.
Also, I literally can't believe the fucking Tea Party is what's going to destroy this country.
Well it makes sense in a way.
There's a certain poeticness to it. The Boston Tea Party is seen as an iconic, symbolic point in the creation of our country; now, the modern Tea Party is going to destroy it.
I can only hope that the modern Tea Party also attempts to their drunken vandalism and acts economic sabotage on Indians.
Well liberals are more tolerant of Native American concerns than conservatives at least in Washington State, so in a way they already are.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
The tea party members in office are probably fairly smart. Have you considered that maybe they understand the ramifications of their actions, but that they do these things anyways because they know they have enough money/resources that they wouldn't be hurt much, and might benefit greatly from economic turmoil?
The tea party members in office are probably fairly smart. Have you considered that maybe they understand the ramifications of their actions, but that they do these things anyways because they know they have enough money/resources that they wouldn't be hurt much, and might benefit greatly from economic turmoil?
So which is worse, a self-aware, intelligent Machiavellian or an ignorant, hyperbolic flag-humper?
DynagripBreak me a million heartsHoustonRegistered User, ClubPAregular
the trillion dollar coin thing is pretty awesome. oh wells, Tuesday is going to feel like bizarro christmas if this stuff isn't straightened out before then.
I'm going to go with the former. They should know better. Lacking empathy for the suffering or potential suffering of others isn't something we should just let slide, especially by those in positions of power.
First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKER!
The Tea Party isn't so much stupid as deluded. They honestly believe that defaulting would be neutral or positive for the economy, which is laughably false.
The tea party members in office are probably fairly smart. Have you considered that maybe they understand the ramifications of their actions, but that they do these things anyways because they know they have enough money/resources that they wouldn't be hurt much, and might benefit greatly from economic turmoil?
Is it bad that I'm sitting on ten thousand dollars in cash trying to decide how low Congress can drive the market before it rebounds and I walk away with fifteen thousand dollars in cash?
Stupid idiots hoarding gold. You're supposed to buy low, bitches.
The tea party members in office are probably fairly smart. Have you considered that maybe they understand the ramifications of their actions, but that they do these things anyways because they know they have enough money/resources that they wouldn't be hurt much, and might benefit greatly from economic turmoil?
So which is worse, a self-aware, intelligent Machiavellian or an ignorant, hyperbolic flag-humper?
Ignorant is scarier. Machiavellians at least take care not to destroy themselves at the same time.
Yeah, I might not have been as careful with which quote I grabbed from your posts on that as I should have, but while I agree on this one point, I disagree with your other assertion that "public debt" has a limited definition. The only limit to what is considered public debt under the 14th Amendment is debt incurred for supporting rebellion and insurrection.
Literally everything else counts.
1) I never said that there was a limited definition. What in the world are you talking about. I was explaining how the argument for why the debt ceiling is unconstitutional flows from the 14th.
2) I am going to be pedantic now because I can. The 14th does not make an "exception" for debt incurred for supporting rebellion and insurrection. The 14th says that the U.S. will not take on any debts from other nations (I.E. the confederacy) that went to pay for rebellion and insurrection against the U.S.
The 14th amendment does two things. It says that public debt may not be questioned and it says that the U.S. can pay debts of the confederacy so long as those debts were not incurred for the purpose of insurrection.
Like I said, we agree more than my initial read suggested, because I totally agree with what you say here. In particular, I agree that the debt ceiling is totally unconstitutional under the 14th Amendment, but who would have standing to bring such a case to the SCOTUS?
For some reason I had you and Tiger confused, and I apologize. Not sure how I managed that ...
The tea party members in office are probably fairly smart. Have you considered that maybe they understand the ramifications of their actions, but that they do these things anyways because they know they have enough money/resources that they wouldn't be hurt much, and might benefit greatly from economic turmoil?
So which is worse, a self-aware, intelligent Machiavellian or an ignorant, hyperbolic flag-humper?
Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their consciences.
The Tea Party isn't so much stupid as deluded. They honestly believe that defaulting would be neutral or positive for the economy, which is laughably false.
The Tea Party newbies are especially deluded. They have essentially been thrown under the bus by their own party - they are basically throwing away their own political career and reputation in what amounts to an attack on their own country.
With that said the idea of trillion dollar platinum coins and a heist to steal one would make an amazingly awesome summer flick.
I doubt they are stupid as you are making them out to be. But whatever it takes to justify your beliefs (and invalidate theirs), more power to you.
I'm sure that on average they are not stupid, but they act very stupid as a group and their ideology is based on lazy stupidity manufactured by the right's personal propaganda machine: Fox News.
Their ideas are stupid, because they are not informed by reality.
Their congressional reps are stupid, because they don't know how to govern.
They are stupid for being bull's in china-shops in the most high-stakes political landscape ever to exist.
They are stupid for egging on the morons they elected, becasue they didn't get what they thought they were getting from the 2011 Budget they passed.
They are stupid when they worship Rand Paul and Palin, both of whom are complete idiots too blinded by ideology and bullshit to ever be viable for public office.
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HachfaceNot the Minister Farrakhan you're thinking ofDammit, Shepard!Registered Userregular
The Tea Party isn't so much stupid as deluded. They honestly believe that defaulting would be neutral or positive for the economy, which is laughably false.
The Tea Party newbies are especially deluded. They have essentially been thrown under the bus by their own party - they are basically throwing away their own political career and reputation in what amounts to an attack on their own country.
With that said the idea of trillion dollar platinum coins and a heist to steal one would make an amazingly awesome summer flick.
My hope would be that the world does not want to be damaged by this anymore than we do. So, we'd get a little bit of a pass this time.
That's.. not how this works.
You do realize that the way it works isn't working anymore. Historically, this is the type of situation that leads to big multi-national summits and ends with a new "way it works."
I'm going to bet that you are someone who knows a lot about this, possibly someone who works in this field. You're the guy who can explain the minutia of how it works to friends in conversations.
I suspect the next few months are going to be very hard on you, because we're entering into "no one knows how it works anymore" territory.
The tea party members in office are probably fairly smart. Have you considered that maybe they understand the ramifications of their actions, but that they do these things anyways because they know they have enough money/resources that they wouldn't be hurt much, and might benefit greatly from economic turmoil?
So which is worse, a self-aware, intelligent Machiavellian or an ignorant, hyperbolic flag-humper?
Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their consciences.
That is a great fucking quote, which perfectly explains why social conservatives are the most terrible kind of people in American politics. 'Specially since they have no problem with government overreach if it concerns itself with their morals (also exactly how we got alcohol prohibition).
I doubt they are stupid as you are making them out to be. But whatever it takes to justify your beliefs (and invalidate theirs), more power to you.
What the shitting christ is this ridiculous above the fray goosery I am reading? We are 4 days or less from potentially complete economic collapse all at the behest of tea partiers and the loons they managed to get elected because liberals were too busy abloo-blooing about how not liberal enough Obama has turned out to be to get out and vote in 2010. Considering that a wide swath of teapers are wholly reliant on the government for fucking living (ss/medicare/caid/welfare/food stamps) it is not a stretch at all to say they are morons. In the same way that someone drinking gasoline despite warnings is a moron. Or who sticks metal things in electrical outlets repeatedly. All because they have somehow gotten it into their heads that the era of laissez-faire economics weren't fucking terrible for nearly everyone whose name didn't start with r and end in obber baron.
I doubt they are stupid as you are making them out to be. But whatever it takes to justify your beliefs (and invalidate theirs), more power to you.
I'm sure that on average they are not stupid, but they act very stupid as a group and their ideology is based on lazy stupidity manufactured by the right's personal propaganda machine: Fox News.
Their ideas are stupid, because they are not informed by reality.
Their congressional reps are stupid, because they don't know how to govern.
They are stupid for being bull's in china-shops in the most high-stakes political landscape ever to exist.
They are stupid for egging on the morons they elected, becasue they didn't get what they thought they were getting from the 2011 Budget they passed.
They are stupid when they worship Rand Paul and Palin, both of whom are complete idiots too blinded by ideology and bullshit to ever be viable for public office.
I've been keeping informed by friends plugged into Japan and China, and they are pretty sure that Asia is poised to completely end American global hegemony because of this issue, as soon as it won;t completely fuck them over.
Posts
Which was probably the intent.
Here's a Yale law professor's take on that issue: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/07/28/balkin.obama.options/
Not sure I agree with his scenario. Honestly I think one portion of the legislature will eventually cave.
Our first game is now available for free on Google Play: Frontier: Isle of the Seven Gods
Well, I don't approve of the way Obama is handling it because he is constantly trying to be center, and showing his hand.
Same for Reid.
As for Boehner. Well, that should be obvious.
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
I think it would make it onto the docket in a hurry. Not that it would matter a lot. What would the value of the debt be if there's a significant (>50% by my estimation) chance that it will be declared to be toilet paper a year down the road? Actually, the longer the case goes the worse it gets, because that means more and more debt will have to be issued under dubious authority and at high costs.
The most recent debt limit increase passed by Congress.
The 2012 Federal Budget, outlining the specifics of how the money released in the appropriations bill are to be used. (the accompanying vote approving the proposed budget)
The 2011 Appropriations Bill, which authorizes the treasury to release the funds necessary to fund the budget.
The U.S. code allowing the treasury to borrow funds in certain situations. This is where the debt limit is written into law, as well as other restrictions on how Congress authorizes the treasury to borrow.
Article One, Section 8
Fourteenth Amendment
A history of the debt limit by the Congressional Research Service
To be added:
- Links to current proposals and associated votes
Well it makes sense in a way.
pleasepaypreacher.net
Ironically enough by trying to get back to the 'virtues' or 'values' or what have you that the original Tea Party was supposed to have.
It all ends up with a bunch of drunk middle-aged dudes having a good time, mirite?
I can only hope that the modern Tea Party also attempts to blame their drunken vandalism and acts of economic sabotage on Indians.
We'll burn first, thanks.
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
Well liberals are more tolerant of Native American concerns than conservatives at least in Washington State, so in a way they already are.
pleasepaypreacher.net
But they're so godamned stupid.
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
So which is worse, a self-aware, intelligent Machiavellian or an ignorant, hyperbolic flag-humper?
Our first game is now available for free on Google Play: Frontier: Isle of the Seven Gods
Is it bad that I'm sitting on ten thousand dollars in cash trying to decide how low Congress can drive the market before it rebounds and I walk away with fifteen thousand dollars in cash?
Stupid idiots hoarding gold. You're supposed to buy low, bitches.
Tea Party voters are stupid.
Tea Party congressmen are just evil.
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
Ignorant is scarier. Machiavellians at least take care not to destroy themselves at the same time.
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For some reason I had you and Tiger confused, and I apologize. Not sure how I managed that ...
pleasepaypreacher.net
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The Tea Party newbies are especially deluded. They have essentially been thrown under the bus by their own party - they are basically throwing away their own political career and reputation in what amounts to an attack on their own country.
With that said the idea of trillion dollar platinum coins and a heist to steal one would make an amazingly awesome summer flick.
Their ideas are stupid, because they are not informed by reality.
Their congressional reps are stupid, because they don't know how to govern.
They are stupid for being bull's in china-shops in the most high-stakes political landscape ever to exist.
They are stupid for egging on the morons they elected, becasue they didn't get what they thought they were getting from the 2011 Budget they passed.
They are stupid when they worship Rand Paul and Palin, both of whom are complete idiots too blinded by ideology and bullshit to ever be viable for public office.
2010 saw the election of many true believers, who are much more dangerous than corporate shills.
You do realize that the way it works isn't working anymore. Historically, this is the type of situation that leads to big multi-national summits and ends with a new "way it works."
I'm going to bet that you are someone who knows a lot about this, possibly someone who works in this field. You're the guy who can explain the minutia of how it works to friends in conversations.
I suspect the next few months are going to be very hard on you, because we're entering into "no one knows how it works anymore" territory.
http://the-diplomat.com/china-power/2011/07/29/china-blasts-us-on-debt-ceiling/
Apparently, our number one international creditor is using the term "catastrophic debt default." They must not understand how "it" works.
What the shitting christ is this ridiculous above the fray goosery I am reading? We are 4 days or less from potentially complete economic collapse all at the behest of tea partiers and the loons they managed to get elected because liberals were too busy abloo-blooing about how not liberal enough Obama has turned out to be to get out and vote in 2010. Considering that a wide swath of teapers are wholly reliant on the government for fucking living (ss/medicare/caid/welfare/food stamps) it is not a stretch at all to say they are morons. In the same way that someone drinking gasoline despite warnings is a moron. Or who sticks metal things in electrical outlets repeatedly. All because they have somehow gotten it into their heads that the era of laissez-faire economics weren't fucking terrible for nearly everyone whose name didn't start with r and end in obber baron.
LoL: failboattootoot
I think you missed the point.
I've been keeping informed by friends plugged into Japan and China, and they are pretty sure that Asia is poised to completely end American global hegemony because of this issue, as soon as it won;t completely fuck them over.