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Sigil City of [Phalla] - Day Seven: Be Sure to Visit Scenic Carceri!
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That sounds like a fun game.
I'd love to, but we're sort of in the situation where giving a friendly neutral a free pass out of the game is the same as giving the mafia a free kill. You know?
I don't remember any of that. Also its totally happening again this year.
Because ecco came in because the person literally couldn't be bothered to post at all. Ahava came back to someone who actively withdrew.
I haven't been around long enough to have a real time series, but the basic argument for withdrawals being more likely to be mafia is sound, and not at all ridiculous.
Steam
Fly to heaven little bird!
(Also, I think stever777 is a decent vote until somebody comes forward with some of all that seer data that was handed out last night.)
sure why not
Steam
My opinion on this argument is that one of them was probably special in some way (not necessarily mafia) and the host was nice enough to replace in bulk to not paint a complete bullseye on the replacement. Also, I thought that one of the replacement was sought out byt he host (vs just a reserve signup), although cj could have PM'd his resignation. I can see the argument, but I don't think its strong enough to vote for either of them.
Darian for very low activity since nothing seems to have come from the seer purchases. Was also looking at INANTP, but Darian already has some votes. The thread switching has made it hard for me to track activity so feel free to correct me.
Phallaclave: Replacement from what I can tell was not mafia (flarne replaced by wildcat)
Echo Bazaar: Replacement was mafia (Mrblarney for Wildcat)
Ace Attorney: Replacement was mafia (kime replaced wildcat)
Post Phallaism: Two replacements, one mafia and one neutral angel
House of Phalla: Replacement was mafia (Mrblarney for someone I don't know whatever)
Loxley Phalla: Two replacements, both villagers
TVTropes: Null
Kamen Rider Phalla: Null
Phallakinetic: Null
Salty Phalla: Null
Elementalist: Null
Asylum: Null
PHA/LLA: Null
Minis:
Phalla Club: Null
Phalla of Angels: Replacement was Mafia
LoL Phalla: Replacement was village
Time Phalla: Null
Dream Phalla: Replacement was village
Newbie Phalla: Null
Biology Phalla: Null
Reality Phalla: Two Replacements both village
Brass Phalla: Replacement was village
Death of Phalla: Replacement was mafia (Ringo for zandracon)
WoT Phalla: Replacement was mafia
Psych Phalla: Replacement was village
So the data is a little skewed in that not every game even has replacements, but for the past 6 mains, 4 games out of 6 had the replacements turn up mafia, while in the past minis only 3 out of 7 was mafia.
So if you were just looking at trends, you're not wrong to say that in recent history, replacements have turned out to be mafia. Specifically, people who make withdrawal requests and don't just disappear from the game.
Statistically, though, it isn't a majority.
I forgot that one, and missed it because I am stupid.
and vote Zandracon
Zandracon
I hope someone is looking at the players who have been quiet this game, it may be the broken threads but there are some people I barely remembering posting.
Zandracon
!Zandracon
To be significant, it doesn't have to be a majority, just over 20%, which it is (though not statistically significant yet probably).
Although you're also probably counting all replacements, and not just withdrawals. If someone doesn't do anything and gets replaced, that's a host behavior argument which I think you'd need to then separate by host which is ridiculous. If someone actually withdraws, then you have information about their ability to contribute and it not reaching the threshold required of their role, as was said in the original thread when this first came up.
Zandracon
Do we have info on what type of baddie Zandracon is? Do we need to worry about leaving the Demons unopposed by Devils, or would that be too crappy a thing for the host to do to us?
But what of the Zandies
Ask you
and I
Twitch Stream
This will make one of each baddie for Retaba.
Confusion will be my epitaph