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Snap, Crackle, and Popping of the Sun. [Space Weather!]
Chimera
Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
Monster girl with a snek tail and five eyesBad puns, that's how eye roll. Registered User regular
***This thread isn't about the weather here down on Earth.... it is about the weather up in outer space!***
SPACE WEATHER! This thread is about what is currently happening out in space in relation to our Sun and what effects it is having for us here on Earth.
LIVE AURORA LOCATION
Here is a live image for your viewing pleasure of where the Auroral oval currently is over the north and south pole. The red arrow indicates where the Sun is in relation to the Earth as well as where it is currently noon on the Earth.
LIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM INFORMATION
Here is a live graphic of the current geomagnetic conditions present in our upper atmosphere from both the Boulder, CO and the international composite monitoring sites.
When the bar is RED expect to see the auroras start to migrate south as well as become significantly brighter and more excited.
LIVE SOLAR FLARE DATA
Here is a live image of current solar flare activity. The higher the peaks, the stronger the flare. Each big rise in the red and blue lines is a solar flare. The two colored lines represent two separate satellites.
Discussion for 11/3/11:
Right now we are currently entering one of the most active solar cycles on record. Late last month on the 24th a massive CME (coronal mass ejection) slammed into the Earth's magnetosphere and caused an amazing and rare display of pure red auroras as far south as Arizona, Oklahoma, and Alabama. The CME was the result of a large magnetic filament of plasma snapping and hurling a large chuck of the Sun's atmosphere out into space.
A photo taken from a storm chaser friend of mine near Ozark, Arkansas of the pure red auroras during the Oct 24th, 2011 geomagnetic storm.
The peak of the solar cycle is expected to take place in late 2012 through mid 2013 but already we have seen a high number of strong to extreme solar flares and CMEs as well as some of the largest sun spots ever seen.
Shortly after I posted a mention of sun spot AR1339 in my meteorology thread (post is here: http://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/comment/21028937#Comment_21028937), it erupted with a massive X2 class flare. That is one of the strongest types of solar flares that can occur. This flare has already caused waves of ionization in our upper atmosphere which is effecting the way radio waves propagate around our planet. If you the proper amateur radio equipment right now you could likely make contact with someone much father away than you normally would be able to by bouncing your signal off the ionosphere.
Here is an awesome video that the SDO nabbed of the x-class flare happening: http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/h264/2011/11/03/SSW_cutout_20111103T2011-20111103T2047_AIA_304-193-171_N21E64.mov
A VLF record in 24kHz NAA station. Big SID's today.
So far the aurora has not become overly excited by this event and that is likely due to the fact that the flare was not directly aimed at our planet. The good news is though that everyone should remain on alert for possible sightings of the aurora this week as AR1339 moves in front of the sun and points right at us. AR1339 is some mind boggling 44,000km wide and is at least 88,000km long! This makes it one of the largest sun spots ever seen and these massive spots are usually very active.
Sun spott AR1339 shortly before letting off a large x-class flare.
Right now NOAA has some pretty high percentages in their forecast for the next 72 hours and all because of this spot.
Large Solar Flare Forecast:
Updated at: 2011 Nov 03 2200 UTC
FLARE 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
CLASS M 75 % 75 %
CLASS X 20 % 20 %
Geomagnetic Storm Forecast:
Updated at: 2011 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
ACTIVE 40 % 20 %
MINOR 15 % 05 %
SEVERE 10 % 01 %
High latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
ACTIVE 50 % 25 %
MINOR 20 % 10 %
SEVERE 15 % 05 %
Those of you in higher latitudes should remain on the watch over the next 48 hours for a good chance of seeing the Aurora.
If any of you get to see the aurora or have in the past do let us know on here. Please share any photos you may have too!
SPACE WEATHER! This thread is about what is currently happening out in space in relation to our Sun and what effects it is having for us here on Earth.
LIVE AURORA LOCATION
Here is a live image for your viewing pleasure of where the Auroral oval currently is over the north and south pole. The red arrow indicates where the Sun is in relation to the Earth as well as where it is currently noon on the Earth.
LIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM INFORMATION
Here is a live graphic of the current geomagnetic conditions present in our upper atmosphere from both the Boulder, CO and the international composite monitoring sites.
When the bar is RED expect to see the auroras start to migrate south as well as become significantly brighter and more excited.
LIVE SOLAR FLARE DATA
Here is a live image of current solar flare activity. The higher the peaks, the stronger the flare. Each big rise in the red and blue lines is a solar flare. The two colored lines represent two separate satellites.
Discussion for 11/3/11:
Right now we are currently entering one of the most active solar cycles on record. Late last month on the 24th a massive CME (coronal mass ejection) slammed into the Earth's magnetosphere and caused an amazing and rare display of pure red auroras as far south as Arizona, Oklahoma, and Alabama. The CME was the result of a large magnetic filament of plasma snapping and hurling a large chuck of the Sun's atmosphere out into space.
A photo taken from a storm chaser friend of mine near Ozark, Arkansas of the pure red auroras during the Oct 24th, 2011 geomagnetic storm.
The peak of the solar cycle is expected to take place in late 2012 through mid 2013 but already we have seen a high number of strong to extreme solar flares and CMEs as well as some of the largest sun spots ever seen.
Shortly after I posted a mention of sun spot AR1339 in my meteorology thread (post is here: http://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/comment/21028937#Comment_21028937), it erupted with a massive X2 class flare. That is one of the strongest types of solar flares that can occur. This flare has already caused waves of ionization in our upper atmosphere which is effecting the way radio waves propagate around our planet. If you the proper amateur radio equipment right now you could likely make contact with someone much father away than you normally would be able to by bouncing your signal off the ionosphere.
Here is an awesome video that the SDO nabbed of the x-class flare happening: http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/h264/2011/11/03/SSW_cutout_20111103T2011-20111103T2047_AIA_304-193-171_N21E64.mov
A VLF record in 24kHz NAA station. Big SID's today.
So far the aurora has not become overly excited by this event and that is likely due to the fact that the flare was not directly aimed at our planet. The good news is though that everyone should remain on alert for possible sightings of the aurora this week as AR1339 moves in front of the sun and points right at us. AR1339 is some mind boggling 44,000km wide and is at least 88,000km long! This makes it one of the largest sun spots ever seen and these massive spots are usually very active.
Sun spott AR1339 shortly before letting off a large x-class flare.
Right now NOAA has some pretty high percentages in their forecast for the next 72 hours and all because of this spot.
Large Solar Flare Forecast:
Updated at: 2011 Nov 03 2200 UTC
FLARE 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
CLASS M 75 % 75 %
CLASS X 20 % 20 %
Geomagnetic Storm Forecast:
Updated at: 2011 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
ACTIVE 40 % 20 %
MINOR 15 % 05 %
SEVERE 10 % 01 %
High latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
ACTIVE 50 % 25 %
MINOR 20 % 10 %
SEVERE 15 % 05 %
Those of you in higher latitudes should remain on the watch over the next 48 hours for a good chance of seeing the Aurora.
If any of you get to see the aurora or have in the past do let us know on here. Please share any photos you may have too!
Chimera on
0
This discussion has been closed.
Posts
Even this is over dramatized for entertainment purposes.
The real damage that would happen to our civilization would be to our power grid and our electronics as well as our radio communication capabilities. Unless our Earth's magnetic field breaks down like Mars's we wont have to worry about a flare blowing off our atmosphere. We also never will have to worry about the wall of flame one produces as that was just pure Hollywood make believe.
With our magnetic field in the state that it is currently we would have to worry more about the sun its self blowing up rather than a single flare or CME.
it hasn't been properly cold in a while
this was The Weather with Blank
Wrong thread. (unless you are giving your forecast from space) http://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/151021/its-raining-its-pouring-chimera-is-forecasting-the-weather.#Item_88
(I just saw the word weather and went into autopost)
It's all good. I hear the Rings of Saturn are typically wonderful to visit this time of the solar cycle.
Need some stuff designed or printed? I can help with that.
Another fun fact is that if you were able to remove the sun spot from the sun it would actually glow brighter than any star in the sky does here on earth in the night sky. The reason the spot looks like a black dot is because the rest of the sun around it is significantly brighter and thus we get the optical illusion that it is a black dot.
Mars can't have one because the planet isn't dense enough. Venus probably used to have one, but it got hit by something huge eons ago and barely spins anymore so it has a global uniform temperature with a really shitty heat exchange process.
The little magnetic umbrellas on Mars is pretty neat though as it allows localized aurora ovals to happen in little patches all over the planet when they get hit by a CME. On the flip side though it also means that most of Mars's atmosphere is getting blasted away by the solar wind and those little umbrellas can accelerate that process during intense solar storms.
What is happening here?
No, Venus actually rotates in the wrong direction because of the period and manor in which it formed in the planetary nebula combined with the strong tidal effects that its own dense atmosphere has. While the common thought once was that an impact even caused its spin to retrograde and reverse that has since been revised. It is true that due to the solar and planetary tide issues that Venus has that it did once have a moon which it collided with.
It would be neat to be in orbit around Venus right now to see how it is effected by such a strong CME passing by it. The CME is so strong that it will likely blow away Mercury's temporary atmosphere and pieces of its surface.
NOAA has upgraded the risk for new X-Class flares for sunspot AR1339 to 20% percent with is pretty dang high! This spot is slowly coming around to face earth and we are just about in its sights.