So for those who don't know: the Vita just had its second week on sale in Japan. It sold 72k, worse than every other major platform there. The 3DS sold 482k, almost five times as much as the second place platform.
Contrary to how it may seem, this is not the primary thrust of this thread!
Right now, PA's industry thread, other forums and even some major news sites have been quick to get in on some Vita gloom and doom based on this info. Some are talking like poor Vita sales have been a given for a long time now, writing's been on the wall, most sane people expected this outcome.
To which I thought, did we really? How long have we expected it to do poorly, and is this rough start in Japan really indicative of long term struggles?
Which made me think of the next generation of home consoles. How do we expect them to do? Will the past repeat itself? Heck, which past?
A lot of discussion on this subject goes on in the industry thread, but it's interspersed with everything else. I decided to make this thread to try and consolidate predictions in one place, and because it is generally entertaining to look back at how we thought things would turn out in previous years. This will be one to bookmark!
Hopefully we can revisit this subject after E3, and then after all three new consoles are out, then a year later, etc.
Go as in depth or as vague as you'd like. These are the sorts of burning questions we need pre-answers to:
- How many millions will the 3DS/Vita/WiiU/PS4/720 sell in each major territory?
What will the ratio between them look like in five years? If you think it's too early to call, feel free to define a specific scenario - if PS4 regains exclusives the PS3 lost, if WiiU improves its online capabilities, etc.
- How many SKUs will each console have, and what will they look like?
Do you think anyone will go discless, or court casuals and hardcore separately?
- How many handheld revisions will we see, when will we see them, and what form will they take?
- What sort of controllers should we expect to see standard with each console, and how will this affect mass market appeal?
- Who's going to gain exclusives, who's going to lose exclusives, and how will this drive or hurt hardware sales?
- How will consoles be affected by the rise in popularity for portable devices? How will handhelds be affected by the rise in popularity for smartphones?
- Who is doomed and/or going third party?
Please be polite. I realize this is sort of a pure console warz thread, but hopefully we can keep it civil. Remember, it's not about what you want
to see happen or which platform is best in your opinion, it's about what you expect to see
What do you think?
Switch Friend Code: SW - 5443 - 2358 - 9118 || 3DS Friend Code: 0989 - 1731 - 9504 || NNID: unclesporky