I'm worried a large portion of the people will be playing Mesmer. I don't want to run around in a game that's like 30-40% Mesmers. Though I find it kind of hilarious, considering Mesmer is the least played class in GW1 due to it's difficulty.
I suspect that the large representation of our harlequin cousins was mostly due to their novelty value. I don't believe their lasting appeal is quite so broad. Still, we could be wrong and may well be wading through seas of rampaging clones by next year.
The more I think about it the less likely I expect it is, though I would like to see what would happen if a large number of mesmers met a mixed group. All the classes seem to have something going for them that makes them sound very threatening if they were to band together.
Basil on
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CorehealerThe ApothecaryThe softer edge of the universe.Registered Userregular
I'm worried a large portion of the people will be playing Mesmer. I don't want to run around in a game that's like 30-40% Mesmers. Though I find it kind of hilarious, considering Mesmer is the least played class in GW1 due to it's difficulty.
I still think that most people will go Elementalist and Warrior to start, and PvP centric people will go Thief and Mesmer. That's at launch when everything is new and people want to go what seems simplest for PvE and the most versatile in PvP. The intricacies will come out with time, and every class will have it's day, even Rangers.
And especially Engineers.
It won't be: What's OP right now? or: What's good for raids? It'll be: What is fun to me? That's about as individual as can be. Save the cookie cutter builds for later.
On a side note, any of you fine gentlemen want to post the next thread OP for me seeing as I'm jailed till the end of March? Beta and the thread cap this time round will most likely come before then and I need someone trustworthy to e-mail the OP template to and let post it, at least until we burn through that thread and begin the process of planning for launch guilds and such. Then I'll go back to it.
On a side note, any of you fine gentlemen want to post the next thread OP for me seeing as I'm jailed till the end of March? Beta and the thread cap this time round will most likely come before then and I need someone trustworthy to e-mail the OP template to and let post it, at least until we burn through that thread and begin the process of planning for launch guilds and such. Then I'll go back to it.
Well, I'm still new, so I'm not asking you to trust with that responsibility. However, I do have a possible suggestion that could work in case the next thread isn't full before you need to make a bunch of major changes. How about when you find someone trustworthy you just give them the first comment worth of stuff, and then you (hopefully) can make a bunch of posts before the thread gets really started? That way, the first post can just have all the info that will most likely not change while your posts have everything else that is relevant. Or the first post just has a very small introduction and then you fill the rest of the posts with massive goodies? It might not work once the topic hits 99 pages, but you could start working on it before hand.
Steam: The_Zeta
LOL NA: Rednaz
Currently Playing: Dark Forces
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UnluckyThat's not meant to happenRegistered Userregular
I expect Rangers and Engineers will be the least played. Not going to lie, they interest me the least so far also.
I have no doubt it'll spread itself out over time, just like GW1 did when it launched, especially when the new campaigns came out.
Everyone was either a Dervish or Assassin for a while.
I think there must be something wrong with me that makes me get all gooey over the notion of having a skill bar that consists of: | Throw Mine | Throw Mine | Throw Mine | Throw Mine | Throw Mine | Medical Kit | Bomb Kit | Mine Kit | Thumper Turret | Deploy Mortar |
Have you seen how fast those explosives can be deployed? Drop, drop, drop, drop! And bombs on the run! Squee! A flamethrower that can make a wall of fire and both push and pull people through it! Rocket boots!
I predict the profession popularity being broken up in the following tiers:
Guardian, ranger, elementalist
Warrior, thief, necromancer
Mesmer, engineer.
It's taking what people play in WoW in terms of popularity and then adjusting from there, since I think that's what will happen. People will flock to their WoW-equivalent profession, and if it's too different, they'll try something else.
I predict the profession popularity being broken up in the following tiers:
Guardian, ranger, elementalist
Warrior, thief, necromancer
Mesmer, engineer.
It's taking what people play in WoW in terms of popularity and then adjusting from there, since I think that's what will happen. People will flock to their WoW-equivalent profession, and if it's too different, they'll try something else.
You are tripping balls.
I've been voraciously devouring every poll, survey, or statistic about people's race/profession preferences and there are two things that are quite clear:
Mesmer will be the most popular profession. It was the top of all the polls I've seen except one, where it was second place. GW2 census by itself is a good enough source: http://gw2census.com/charts.php?pie=total÷=charprofession
It has a sample size of 12k, which means there is probably very little error in their results.
Engineer and Ranger will be the least played professions. This has also been pretty universal. Mesmer will be at least 22% of the total population at launch (I doubt it will reach 40%, but 30% isn't impossible) and Engineer will be less than 10% of the total population. Statistically speaking, this is almost certain.
I can hypothesize reasons why these trends happen.
For Mesmer:
1) It is the only profession in GW2 that is not a fantasy cliche. People like playing things that feel new and fresh, which is why most players (esp. players that haven't played GW1) will flock to Mesmer. This is the same reason that Sylvari is the most popular race other than Human (which is always the most popular in MMOs because people like characters they can relate to). Furthermore, this means that the polls you'll see on GW2 census, etc. are probably actually undercounting the number of Mesmers, because the real newbies don't GW2 forums and fill out GW2 polls will be even more interested in Mesmer ( just see this chart: http://gw2census.com/charts.php?pie=gamertype-Noob÷=charprofession ).
2) Mesmer skills are flashy and creative: LAZERS LAZERS LAZERS, kage bunshin olol, force push!, THE PRESTIGE. These are skills that you probably haven't seen in any other MMO before, unlike the generic fireball, hammer smash, necromancer plague, etc.
3) People are drawn to the trickery gameplay. In reality, it seems that it won't actually be possible to trick players with clones because the implementation is very flawed, but most people don't realize this.
For Engineer and Ranger:
1) The Engi and Ranger skills are bland and cliche. Ranger has shoot arrows at stuff, traps, hit stuff with your blade, etc. generic skills that you've probably already used hundreds of times in every other iteration of Ranger. Engineer skills are a mix of generic pre-modern FPS items and Wile E. Coyote ACME gadets.
2) The Engi is the least fantasy-ish of all the classes. Most people who play fantasy MMOs like, well, magic and fantasy.
The Engineer's Personal Battering Ram is a heart shaped ram's head on a lattice arm that shoots out from your chest and punts people away like the classic extending boxing glove.
Nope. Data is flawed. Beta census data is flawed because everyone was wanting to try out the mesmer since it was brand new.
Surveys are flawed because those are from people who haven't had a chance to play.
Watch: When Guild Wars 2 comes out, take a look at players who are level 15+, and I can almost guarantee that the profession breakdown will be as I've predicted.
EDIT: Supporting my assertion are these points:
1. People who are playing WoW and have characters past level 10 are playing the type of character they are most comfortable with. Most of GW2's playerbase will be people who play WoW.
2. The mesmer and engineer will go way down in popularity, due to being very complex professions with a high degree of skill involved to play half decently—this is as described by ArenaNet.
3. "Paladins"—the guardians—are always popular archetypes, as are wizards and rangers. Rangers are very popular archetypes, as the pet mechanic appeals to a very large part of the populace. There's a reason Hunters are the most popular class in WoW from levels 10+.
Nope. Data is flawed. Beta census data is flawed because everyone was wanting to try out the mesmer since it was brand new.
Surveys are flawed because those are from people who haven't had a chance to play.
Watch: When Guild Wars 2 comes out, take a look at players who are level 15+, and I can almost guarantee that the profession breakdown will be as I've predicted.
EDIT: Supporting my assertion are these points:
1. People who are playing WoW and have characters past level 10 are playing the type of character they are most comfortable with. Most of GW2's playerbase will be people who play WoW.
2. The mesmer and engineer will go way down in popularity, due to being very complex professions with a high degree of skill involved to play half decently—this is as described by ArenaNet.
3. "Paladins"—the guardians—are always popular archetypes, as are wizards and rangers. Rangers are very popular archetypes, as the pet mechanic appeals to a very large part of the populace. There's a reason Hunters are the most popular class in WoW from levels 10+.
The "census" isn't actually from beta data, it's a survey of interest, so as you say, it's from people who haven't had a chance to play.
Why does this make it flawed? You think when they play Mesmer they'll hate it? I sincerely doubt it. The beta players who played Mesmer all seemed to like the class.
What exactly makes you think Mesmer will be hard to play? People have the impression because that's what ArenaNet told them, but their abilities are not actually hard to use. Unlike GW1, you don't have to have split second timing for interrupts, and you don't have to pay attention to hexes and so forth. Illusions are fire and forget; there's no micro involved there. Their profession mechanic (shatter) is also straightforward: depending on the numbers for confusion you will either use Mind Wrack or the Confusion Shatter against melee classes, reflection against ranged classes, and stun if you want to time to get away. The decisions involved in, say, switching between attunements seem much more complex.
Ranger has been CONSISTENTLY lowest or second lowest in all the polls. What would make people change their minds?
Guardians will be popular, but not because they are similar to paladins, but because they are different. Guardians are the third most unique/creative profession to GW2 (the first two being Mesmer and Engineer, and Engineer being unpopular for the aforementioned reasons).
I hereby do solemnly swear that if Mesmer is not in the top two most popular professions at launch, then I will verily consume my own phallus (I say top two because if people find out about the cloak and dagger thief build that lets you fight 1v1 while staying stealthed 90% of the time, and if ANet doesn't fix how broken that is, then people will flock to Thief for PvP).
Also I am screenshotting Caedare's post so that when I'm right and the hoard of Mesmers arrive on release I can say "I told you so."
edit: Like if GW2 were the stock market, then I would be putting all my money into Sylvari Mesmers right now, and when the game comes out I would be rich. Statistics works.
I think the difference between the classes will be fairly small in general. There may be a "least popular", but that profession will still be a large portion of the population.
I think the difference between the classes will be fairly small in general. There may be a "least popular", but that profession will still be a large portion of the population.
I think you could say that about almost every MMO. Like in WoW, even with the horrible trinity system forcing people to play classes they don't like, the least popular classes still had around 8% of the population, which is only 1% less than Engineer is getting right now (and GW2 has less classes than WoW).
So if you consider it that way than it's fairly balanced.
If you consider that right now it's seeming like there will be more than twice as many Mesmers as there are Engineers, then it doesn't seem so balanced.
It really just depends on your definition of balanced.
In any case, the WoW population is mostly dictated by FotM trends of which class is most powerful and which classes are in highest demands (e.g. Paladins can fit all three roles, so they are the most popular), whereas the GW2 launch population will be dictated by which class people think seems the coolest (and then later when people figure out what's OP, the statistics will shift).
Meister, my prediction isn't going to be for release day. Let me be a bit more specific:
One month after release, once players have had a chance to actually play different professions, the tiers will be as I had stated. Alternatively, depending on how the beta goes—if the sample size is large enough, and if players get more than a day or two to actually play—you may be able to get accurate results after a month of beta.
It is impossible to derive accurate information as to what the most popular professions will be if you go based solely on surveys or beta data, since the sample is flawed. You need to give it time for the effects of initial excitement and "newness" to wear off and to see what people are the most comfortable with.
Again, I assert that mesmers are as popular as they are because they are new, nothing more. You cannot accurately model interest with the information we have been given.
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KlykaDO you have anySPARE BATTERIES?Registered Userregular
Meister, my prediction isn't going to be for release day. Let me be a bit more specific:
One month after release, once players have had a chance to actually play different professions, the tiers will be as I had stated. Alternatively, depending on how the beta goes—if the sample size is large enough, and if players get more than a day or two to actually play—you may be able to get accurate results after a month of beta.
It is impossible to derive accurate information as to what the most popular professions will be if you go based solely on surveys or beta data, since the sample is flawed. You need to give it time for the effects of initial excitement and "newness" to wear off and to see what people are the most comfortable with.
Again, I assert that mesmers are as popular as they are because they are new, nothing more. You cannot accurately model interest with the information we have been given.
Alright good, now the exact prediction is clear.
I'm saying after one month of release mesmer will be in the top 3 most played and ranger will be in the bottom 3. You're saying the opposite: ranger will be in the top 3 and mesmer will be in the bottom 3. (I would actually wager that mesmer will be in the top 2, but you don't seem confident enough to wager that ranger will be in the top 2, so we'll make it symmetric).
Meister, my prediction isn't going to be for release day. Let me be a bit more specific:
One month after release, once players have had a chance to actually play different professions, the tiers will be as I had stated. Alternatively, depending on how the beta goes—if the sample size is large enough, and if players get more than a day or two to actually play—you may be able to get accurate results after a month of beta.
It is impossible to derive accurate information as to what the most popular professions will be if you go based solely on surveys or beta data, since the sample is flawed. You need to give it time for the effects of initial excitement and "newness" to wear off and to see what people are the most comfortable with.
Again, I assert that mesmers are as popular as they are because they are new, nothing more. You cannot accurately model interest with the information we have been given.
Alright good, now the exact prediction is clear.
I'm saying after one month of release Mesmer will be in the top 3 most played and Ranger will be in the bottom 3. You're saying the opposite: Ranger will be in the top 3 and Mesmer will be in the bottom 3. (I would actually wager that Mesmer will be in the top 2, but you don't seem confident enough to wager that Ranger will be in the top 2, so we'll make it symmetric).
The stakes are our dicks.
Is this wager acceptable?
If so, get your bbq dick sauce ready.
Haha, the joke's on you, I don't have a dick.
There's no "wager" between us, man. I stated that the tiers will be as I predicted. Guardian, elementalist, ranger; then warrior, thief, necromancer; then mesmer and engineer. None of this "mesmer vs Mesmer" wager nonsense.
Also, you alone have cost us all of the slots in our guild. Your capitalization, it burns!
Meister, my prediction isn't going to be for release day. Let me be a bit more specific:
One month after release, once players have had a chance to actually play different professions, the tiers will be as I had stated. Alternatively, depending on how the beta goes—if the sample size is large enough, and if players get more than a day or two to actually play—you may be able to get accurate results after a month of beta.
It is impossible to derive accurate information as to what the most popular professions will be if you go based solely on surveys or beta data, since the sample is flawed. You need to give it time for the effects of initial excitement and "newness" to wear off and to see what people are the most comfortable with.
Again, I assert that mesmers are as popular as they are because they are new, nothing more. You cannot accurately model interest with the information we have been given.
Alright good, now the exact prediction is clear.
I'm saying after one month of release Mesmer will be in the top 3 most played and Ranger will be in the bottom 3. You're saying the opposite: Ranger will be in the top 3 and Mesmer will be in the bottom 3. (I would actually wager that Mesmer will be in the top 2, but you don't seem confident enough to wager that Ranger will be in the top 2, so we'll make it symmetric).
The stakes are our dicks.
Is this wager acceptable?
If so, get your bbq dick sauce ready.
Haha, the joke's on you, I don't have a dick.
There's no "wager" between us, man. I stated that the tiers will be as I predicted. Guardian, elementalist, ranger; then warrior, thief, necromancer; then mesmer and engineer. None of this "mesmer vs Mesmer" wager nonsense.
Also, you alone have cost us all of the slots in our guild. Your capitalization, it burns!
Well in that tier list mesmer is in the bottom two, so it would still be in the bottom 3. Therefore, the wager is actually just a relaxed version of your tier list and should be perfectly acceptable to you.
If you don't have a dick, then in the event (that will occur with 100% probability) that you are wrong, then you will have to fly to Thailand, get surgery, and then promptly eat your new dick.
edit: Also, I was totally talking about my good friends Mesmer Jones and Ranger Smith.
There's... there's no wager. First off, I don't bet on anything unless I am literally guaranteed to win. Second... you're making this into some weird kind of rivalry thing, and it's kinda creeping me out.
I made a general statement, and then you glommed on to it and are making it some sort of "bet"... that's not what I was going for at all.
I like making bold predictions because it's fun, and it's also neat to see if I was right. There's no competition between us, because you don't really matter all that much to me. Sorry.
What's the point in always being right if no one acknowledges my superiority?
I just don't see how anyone could not realize that mesmer will be the most played class. It's the result of every poll, and it's simply the logical conclusion.
When given the choice between:
Shoot some arrows and cut stuff
VS.
Shoot lazer beams out of a great sword and make clones of yourself
most new players will pick option number 2.
The only way I see this not happening is if Anet doesn't fix any of the numerous balance/gameplay issues that mesmers have right now.
What's the point in always being right if no one acknowledges my superiority?
I just don't see how anyone could not realize that mesmer will be the most played class. It's the result of every poll, and it's simply the logical conclusion.
When given the choice between:
Shoot some arrows and cut stuff
VS.
Shoot lazer beams out of a great sword and make clones of yourself
most new players will pick option number 2.
The only way I see this not happening is if Anet doesn't fix any of the numerous balance/gameplay issues that mesmers have right now.
For you, the day Caedere graced this thread was the most important day of your life. But for me... it was Tuesday.
I expect the margin of error for a poll like that is fairly large.
When you consider they are all within about 4% of each other, a little shift here and there could switch things up. I don't think Mesmer will be the least played class, but it may not be the most played.
I expect the margin of error for a poll like that is fairly large.
When you consider they are all within about 4% of each other, a little shift here and there could switch things up. I don't think Mesmer will be the least played class, but it may not be the most played.
I agree, it's possible it will be second most played. Third is even a slight possibility.
I need to get my charr art colored so I can drop the pony sig/avatar already.
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KlykaDO you have anySPARE BATTERIES?Registered Userregular
It's so weird how this game looks really great and I want to play it, but then I see PvP videos where it takes like, unending amounts of time to kill anything and I lose a little bit of excitement for it.
It's so weird how this game looks really great and I want to play it, but then I see PvP videos where it takes like, unending amounts of time to kill anything and I lose a little bit of excitement for it.
Ah well, we'll see in the Beta!
When you watch the G-Star demos with the devs playing, their 2v2 fights usually begin with 100-0ing someone within about three seconds.
Posts
The press were all over it cause it's the newest class and cause it's unique.
The more I think about it the less likely I expect it is, though I would like to see what would happen if a large number of mesmers met a mixed group. All the classes seem to have something going for them that makes them sound very threatening if they were to band together.
I still think that most people will go Elementalist and Warrior to start, and PvP centric people will go Thief and Mesmer. That's at launch when everything is new and people want to go what seems simplest for PvE and the most versatile in PvP. The intricacies will come out with time, and every class will have it's day, even Rangers.
And especially Engineers.
It won't be: What's OP right now? or: What's good for raids? It'll be: What is fun to me? That's about as individual as can be. Save the cookie cutter builds for later.
On a side note, any of you fine gentlemen want to post the next thread OP for me seeing as I'm jailed till the end of March? Beta and the thread cap this time round will most likely come before then and I need someone trustworthy to e-mail the OP template to and let post it, at least until we burn through that thread and begin the process of planning for launch guilds and such. Then I'll go back to it.
Well, I'm still new, so I'm not asking you to trust with that responsibility. However, I do have a possible suggestion that could work in case the next thread isn't full before you need to make a bunch of major changes. How about when you find someone trustworthy you just give them the first comment worth of stuff, and then you (hopefully) can make a bunch of posts before the thread gets really started? That way, the first post can just have all the info that will most likely not change while your posts have everything else that is relevant. Or the first post just has a very small introduction and then you fill the rest of the posts with massive goodies? It might not work once the topic hits 99 pages, but you could start working on it before hand.
LOL NA: Rednaz
Currently Playing: Dark Forces
I have no doubt it'll spread itself out over time, just like GW1 did when it launched, especially when the new campaigns came out.
Everyone was either a Dervish or Assassin for a while.
Then I can fix that broken link in post 1.
Have you seen how fast those explosives can be deployed? Drop, drop, drop, drop! And bombs on the run! Squee! A flamethrower that can make a wall of fire and both push and pull people through it! Rocket boots!
Maybe I'm desensitized to magic and wonder.
Guardian, ranger, elementalist
Warrior, thief, necromancer
Mesmer, engineer.
It's taking what people play in WoW in terms of popularity and then adjusting from there, since I think that's what will happen. People will flock to their WoW-equivalent profession, and if it's too different, they'll try something else.
You are tripping balls.
I've been voraciously devouring every poll, survey, or statistic about people's race/profession preferences and there are two things that are quite clear:
Mesmer will be the most popular profession. It was the top of all the polls I've seen except one, where it was second place. GW2 census by itself is a good enough source:
http://gw2census.com/charts.php?pie=total÷=charprofession
It has a sample size of 12k, which means there is probably very little error in their results.
Engineer and Ranger will be the least played professions. This has also been pretty universal. Mesmer will be at least 22% of the total population at launch (I doubt it will reach 40%, but 30% isn't impossible) and Engineer will be less than 10% of the total population. Statistically speaking, this is almost certain.
I can hypothesize reasons why these trends happen.
For Mesmer:
1) It is the only profession in GW2 that is not a fantasy cliche. People like playing things that feel new and fresh, which is why most players (esp. players that haven't played GW1) will flock to Mesmer. This is the same reason that Sylvari is the most popular race other than Human (which is always the most popular in MMOs because people like characters they can relate to). Furthermore, this means that the polls you'll see on GW2 census, etc. are probably actually undercounting the number of Mesmers, because the real newbies don't GW2 forums and fill out GW2 polls will be even more interested in Mesmer ( just see this chart: http://gw2census.com/charts.php?pie=gamertype-Noob÷=charprofession ).
2) Mesmer skills are flashy and creative: LAZERS LAZERS LAZERS, kage bunshin olol, force push!, THE PRESTIGE. These are skills that you probably haven't seen in any other MMO before, unlike the generic fireball, hammer smash, necromancer plague, etc.
3) People are drawn to the trickery gameplay. In reality, it seems that it won't actually be possible to trick players with clones because the implementation is very flawed, but most people don't realize this.
For Engineer and Ranger:
1) The Engi and Ranger skills are bland and cliche. Ranger has shoot arrows at stuff, traps, hit stuff with your blade, etc. generic skills that you've probably already used hundreds of times in every other iteration of Ranger. Engineer skills are a mix of generic pre-modern FPS items and Wile E. Coyote ACME gadets.
2) The Engi is the least fantasy-ish of all the classes. Most people who play fantasy MMOs like, well, magic and fantasy.
ACME products never let you down.
Surveys are flawed because those are from people who haven't had a chance to play.
Watch: When Guild Wars 2 comes out, take a look at players who are level 15+, and I can almost guarantee that the profession breakdown will be as I've predicted.
EDIT: Supporting my assertion are these points:
1. People who are playing WoW and have characters past level 10 are playing the type of character they are most comfortable with. Most of GW2's playerbase will be people who play WoW.
2. The mesmer and engineer will go way down in popularity, due to being very complex professions with a high degree of skill involved to play half decently—this is as described by ArenaNet.
3. "Paladins"—the guardians—are always popular archetypes, as are wizards and rangers. Rangers are very popular archetypes, as the pet mechanic appeals to a very large part of the populace. There's a reason Hunters are the most popular class in WoW from levels 10+.
It is the only guarantee that holds water in this port.
I will eat my dick if I am wrong on this. I'm flexible enough to pull it off. :winky:
The "census" isn't actually from beta data, it's a survey of interest, so as you say, it's from people who haven't had a chance to play.
Why does this make it flawed? You think when they play Mesmer they'll hate it? I sincerely doubt it. The beta players who played Mesmer all seemed to like the class.
What exactly makes you think Mesmer will be hard to play? People have the impression because that's what ArenaNet told them, but their abilities are not actually hard to use. Unlike GW1, you don't have to have split second timing for interrupts, and you don't have to pay attention to hexes and so forth. Illusions are fire and forget; there's no micro involved there. Their profession mechanic (shatter) is also straightforward: depending on the numbers for confusion you will either use Mind Wrack or the Confusion Shatter against melee classes, reflection against ranged classes, and stun if you want to time to get away. The decisions involved in, say, switching between attunements seem much more complex.
Ranger has been CONSISTENTLY lowest or second lowest in all the polls. What would make people change their minds?
Guardians will be popular, but not because they are similar to paladins, but because they are different. Guardians are the third most unique/creative profession to GW2 (the first two being Mesmer and Engineer, and Engineer being unpopular for the aforementioned reasons).
I hereby do solemnly swear that if Mesmer is not in the top two most popular professions at launch, then I will verily consume my own phallus (I say top two because if people find out about the cloak and dagger thief build that lets you fight 1v1 while staying stealthed 90% of the time, and if ANet doesn't fix how broken that is, then people will flock to Thief for PvP).
Also I am screenshotting Caedare's post so that when I'm right and the hoard of Mesmers arrive on release I can say "I told you so."
edit: Like if GW2 were the stock market, then I would be putting all my money into Sylvari Mesmers right now, and when the game comes out I would be rich. Statistics works.
Steam (Ansatz) || GW2 officer (Ansatz.6498)
I think you could say that about almost every MMO. Like in WoW, even with the horrible trinity system forcing people to play classes they don't like, the least popular classes still had around 8% of the population, which is only 1% less than Engineer is getting right now (and GW2 has less classes than WoW).
So if you consider it that way than it's fairly balanced.
If you consider that right now it's seeming like there will be more than twice as many Mesmers as there are Engineers, then it doesn't seem so balanced.
It really just depends on your definition of balanced.
http://armorydatamining.appspot.com/general?t=PopBigPicture
In any case, the WoW population is mostly dictated by FotM trends of which class is most powerful and which classes are in highest demands (e.g. Paladins can fit all three roles, so they are the most popular), whereas the GW2 launch population will be dictated by which class people think seems the coolest (and then later when people figure out what's OP, the statistics will shift).
One month after release, once players have had a chance to actually play different professions, the tiers will be as I had stated. Alternatively, depending on how the beta goes—if the sample size is large enough, and if players get more than a day or two to actually play—you may be able to get accurate results after a month of beta.
It is impossible to derive accurate information as to what the most popular professions will be if you go based solely on surveys or beta data, since the sample is flawed. You need to give it time for the effects of initial excitement and "newness" to wear off and to see what people are the most comfortable with.
Again, I assert that mesmers are as popular as they are because they are new, nothing more. You cannot accurately model interest with the information we have been given.
Yes, a Baker!
EDIT: Also, your data is like, two years old.
Only because they are FOTM. Pick a real class.
LOL NA: Rednaz
Currently Playing: Dark Forces
Alright good, now the exact prediction is clear.
I'm saying after one month of release mesmer will be in the top 3 most played and ranger will be in the bottom 3. You're saying the opposite: ranger will be in the top 3 and mesmer will be in the bottom 3. (I would actually wager that mesmer will be in the top 2, but you don't seem confident enough to wager that ranger will be in the top 2, so we'll make it symmetric).
The stakes are our dicks.
Is this wager acceptable?
If so, get your bbq dick sauce ready.
Haha, the joke's on you, I don't have a dick.
There's no "wager" between us, man. I stated that the tiers will be as I predicted. Guardian, elementalist, ranger; then warrior, thief, necromancer; then mesmer and engineer. None of this "mesmer vs Mesmer" wager nonsense.
Also, you alone have cost us all of the slots in our guild.
Well in that tier list mesmer is in the bottom two, so it would still be in the bottom 3. Therefore, the wager is actually just a relaxed version of your tier list and should be perfectly acceptable to you.
If you don't have a dick, then in the event (that will occur with 100% probability) that you are wrong, then you will have to fly to Thailand, get surgery, and then promptly eat your new dick.
edit: Also, I was totally talking about my good friends Mesmer Jones and Ranger Smith.
Steam (Ansatz) || GW2 officer (Ansatz.6498)
I made a general statement, and then you glommed on to it and are making it some sort of "bet"... that's not what I was going for at all.
I like making bold predictions because it's fun, and it's also neat to see if I was right. There's no competition between us, because you don't really matter all that much to me. Sorry.
What's the point in always being right if no one acknowledges my superiority?
I just don't see how anyone could not realize that mesmer will be the most played class. It's the result of every poll, and it's simply the logical conclusion.
When given the choice between:
Shoot some arrows and cut stuff
VS.
Shoot lazer beams out of a great sword and make clones of yourself
most new players will pick option number 2.
The only way I see this not happening is if Anet doesn't fix any of the numerous balance/gameplay issues that mesmers have right now.
For you, the day Caedere graced this thread was the most important day of your life. But for me... it was Tuesday.
Suckas can't handle the mad truth I'm spittin.
When you consider they are all within about 4% of each other, a little shift here and there could switch things up. I don't think Mesmer will be the least played class, but it may not be the most played.
Steam (Ansatz) || GW2 officer (Ansatz.6498)
I agree, it's possible it will be second most played. Third is even a slight possibility.
Ah well, we'll see in the Beta!
For the former, I think that is partly due to general noobishness. However, the PvP isn't supposed to be very spiky.
Steam (Ansatz) || GW2 officer (Ansatz.6498)
When you watch the G-Star demos with the devs playing, their 2v2 fights usually begin with 100-0ing someone within about three seconds.
I will be the only one. And I won't even be in PvE, so I might as well not exist to some of you.