On one hand, I would kind of like to vote for Mascara because voting for people who were quiet (and female!) worked pretty well for us last night.
On the other hand, there is some (though not a lot) of real (though not concrete) evidence against Peccavi...who has himself voted for Mascara! Doesn't preclude them both being mafia, of course.
Peccavi for now, though I am interested to see this analysis he has promised us.
Fondor is a lot easier to analyze now. Given that I know that I'm a villager, there are two unknowns left, Assuran and Malkor. 3 of the people on Fondle have turned up green. If Malkor is Sith and Assuran is Jedi, there would be 5 points on Fondor that night. If Assuran is Sith and Malkor is a Jedi, then the points add up and it helps explain how the Sith got so many points that night, they had Jedi padawans help! Maybe we should take a closer look at the knights that moved up to the council (though we can't vote for them, yet).
It's possible for the math to work out if Malkor is Sith and he canceled his master's ability, but considering how many points the Sith got on other planets, I doubt that they could afford using powers to stop Jedi gains on other planets. And this all falls to pieces if you suspect I'm sith. But at least i'm trying to help! Give me a chance to catch a Sith. And if you do kill me, remember this analysis for tomorrow, when I turn up village.
Assuran
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sportzboytjwsqueeeeeezzeeeesome more tax breaks outRegistered Userregular
I believe that the correct path of action is to kill you and Assuran tonight! This seems logical if one removes emotion from the situation.
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I believe that the correct path of action is to kill you and Assuran tonight! This seems logical if one removes emotion from the situation.
They are not both mafia. Mafia may park inconsequential votes on each other as cover, but a mafia actually trying to throw another mafia under the bus to dodge the wagon makes no sense.
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Shiny New Toyswhere am i?its dark in hereRegistered Userregular
To tired and hungover to do proper analysis tonight. I fact that I hesitate to mention as it got corv killed
Of the votes going I would back the Peccavi vote, just for the mission data. Sorry peccavi.
I believe that the correct path of action is to kill you and Assuran tonight! This seems logical if one removes emotion from the situation.
They are not both mafia. Mafia may park inconsequential votes on each other as cover, but a mafia actually trying to throw another mafia under the bus to dodge the wagon makes no sense.
Except that, if we kill Peccavi (which is looking likely) and he is mafia, we now trust Assuran more. Which I'm sure you can see the benefit of, from his perspective, if they are both mafia. Same if we keep Peccavi and kill Assuran. We now trust Peccavi more.
I believe that the correct path of action is to kill you and Assuran tonight! This seems logical if one removes emotion from the situation.
They are not both mafia. Mafia may park inconsequential votes on each other as cover, but a mafia actually trying to throw another mafia under the bus to dodge the wagon makes no sense.
I think he is saying to "kill them all, let God sort'em out," on the theory that at least one of them is probably mafia, so we should just kill them both. We would of course apologize and release the good one from stasis when this whole ugly mess is over.
I believe that the correct path of action is to kill you and Assuran tonight! This seems logical if one removes emotion from the situation.
They are not both mafia. Mafia may park inconsequential votes on each other as cover, but a mafia actually trying to throw another mafia under the bus to dodge the wagon makes no sense.
Except that, if we kill Peccavi (which is looking likely) and he is mafia, we now trust Assuran more. Which I'm sure you can see the benefit of, from his perspective, if they are both mafia. Same if we keep Peccavi and kill Assuran. We now trust Peccavi more.
We trust Peccavi more because he found you guys a mafia and the mafia have tried to bandwagon him all game.
Peccavi and Assuran can't be mafia together. There would only be 3 points on fondor after night 1 if that were the case. Peccavi and Malkor could be, but if Assuran is mafia, neither Peccavi or malkor are.
Peccavi and Assuran can't be mafia together. There would only be 3 points on fondor after night 1 if that were the case. Peccavi and Malkor could be, but if Assuran is mafia, neither Peccavi or malkor are.
The general idea is that if one of you is, it's worth killing both of you to find the mafia instead of leaving 1 alive on the chance that they are not mafia.
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It's good analysis peccavi, but you're missing an important point: there were only 4 with knights and we know where each of them were night 1: tatooine, alderaan, nal hutta and bothawui. We also know where each of those knights said they were: 2 on bothawui, 1 on nalhutta, and one who didn't report as on a planet. The only way to get fondue to where it needs to be is through Sith apprentices canceling their masters.
There were four Padawans on Fondor: captainplanet, peccavi, malkor and rawwking goodguy. The Sith have been killing knights with Sith Padawans. Only one of those on Fondor is still a padawan. That's the math leading me to peccavi.
AssuranIs swinging on the SpiralRegistered Userregular
Well, there is a point that I was in contact with CapFalcon day 1, along with 38Doe and he said we were in a mission group together. Of course, I can't prove it until after the game given the PM rules, but trust me when I say I went to Fondor under Cap's Order. However, I didn't get a roleblock message as to my orders failing.
SNT can confirm Cap was with me the next few days which also screws with my point total.
Yeah, but i'd still personally prefer we dont waste a kill on someone I know is a villager tonight, one who's been talkative all game and had bandwagons pushed on him by mafia repeatedly, and instead vote for the person who's been quiet all game and whose only post today is so mafia!
Hard to go against the network head that found us a mafia just yesterday. And most likely had a hand in killing the other two.
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AssuranIs swinging on the SpiralRegistered Userregular
Pec, just so you know, I work third shift. This is an issue any game I'm in. During the day, unless it's my off days (Sunday, Monday, Tuesday), I'm usually only starting to post after 7 PM EST.
Any number of players who I've played with before can confirm this fact.
And the network head specifically said there wouldn't be a network vote today. This vote isn't based on secret network information, it's based on stuff that's in the thread. Don't use the network head as an excuse to not do your own analysis tonight.
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AssuranIs swinging on the SpiralRegistered Userregular
!Peccavi, because I know I'm not mafia and Malkor is getting killed tonight.
@Kime: Don't buy it. Phalla is fundamentally a numbers game, and the mafia are too few in number to make intentionally sacrificing one of themselves a good move even if it theoretically builds cover for another. I don't think we've killed enough mafia to make them that desperate yet.
@Smoove Operator: Some may consider one mafia for one villager a more than fair trade, but I'm loath to accept the idea of a probable villager as collateral damage when better logic is against that course of action.
Yeah sabers logic looks pretty good for the peccavi vote that and after staring at the spreadsheet for 15 minutes i cant see much better and I'm tired of looking.
Yeah sabers logic looks pretty good for the peccavi vote that and after staring at the spreadsheet for 15 minutes i cant see much better and I'm tired of looking.
Saber's logic for me works exactly the same for Assuran, minus the fact that mafia have repeatedly voted for me (i'd personally say that's in my favor for being Jedi). If two points were missing from Fondor night 1, the simplest solution is that a knight was the traitor. A mafia knight getting their village padawan to support them helps explain how the mafia did so well night 1.
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sportzboytjwsqueeeeeezzeeeesome more tax breaks outRegistered Userregular
@Kime: Don't buy it. Phalla is fundamentally a numbers game, and the mafia are too few in number to make intentionally sacrificing one of themselves a good move even if it theoretically builds cover for another. I don't think we've killed enough mafia to make them that desperate yet.
@Smoove Operator: Some may consider one mafia for one villager a more than fair trade, but I'm loath to accept the idea of a probable villager as collateral damage when better logic is against that course of action.
Better logic is not against it. If there are 1 Sith for every 4 Jedi, then I would gladly trade lives to take them out and end up with 3 Jedi alive and all of those Sith dead.
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@Kime: Don't buy it. Phalla is fundamentally a numbers game, and the mafia are too few in number to make intentionally sacrificing one of themselves a good move even if it theoretically builds cover for another. I don't think we've killed enough mafia to make them that desperate yet.
@Smoove Operator: Some may consider one mafia for one villager a more than fair trade, but I'm loath to accept the idea of a probable villager as collateral damage when better logic is against that course of action.
Better logic is not against it.
Logic says it is much more likely only one of the two is mafia than that both are, for reasons already outlined.
We pick one or the other, if we're right, great, we have slain a mafioso and probably saved a villager. If we're wrong, we can still look at the other person the next night. If we take out both now (one through vote, one vigged or whatever) then chances are we get one mafia while losing one villager in the process...that's decent, but getting one mafia while not losing a villager to do it is a lot better.
There is such a thing as "acceptable losses" but you shouldn't accept them if there's a plan which is just as effective with lesser/no risk of collateral damage available.
In any case, this is out of our hands, the council have already said who they are killing (why, I'm not entirely sure...), that leaves it up to the vig.
Gaslight on
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CayrusConsulFriends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears!Registered Userregular
I was all about the Peccavi train on day 2 because of mission shenanigans. But you all didn't listen and voted out random good mans. SeGaTai if you're right, then I don't know how to use lightsabres.
But I want Peccavi to die, so if the vote drastically changes, I will go to you, Peccavi. The Assuran vote is a vote of faith that, if you die village and Assuran doesn't die, I'll remember
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Peccavi
On one hand, I would kind of like to vote for Mascara because voting for people who were quiet (and female!) worked pretty well for us last night.
On the other hand, there is some (though not a lot) of real (though not concrete) evidence against Peccavi...who has himself voted for Mascara! Doesn't preclude them both being mafia, of course.
Peccavi for now, though I am interested to see this analysis he has promised us.
Fondor is a lot easier to analyze now. Given that I know that I'm a villager, there are two unknowns left, Assuran and Malkor. 3 of the people on Fondle have turned up green. If Malkor is Sith and Assuran is Jedi, there would be 5 points on Fondor that night. If Assuran is Sith and Malkor is a Jedi, then the points add up and it helps explain how the Sith got so many points that night, they had Jedi padawans help! Maybe we should take a closer look at the knights that moved up to the council (though we can't vote for them, yet).
It's possible for the math to work out if Malkor is Sith and he canceled his master's ability, but considering how many points the Sith got on other planets, I doubt that they could afford using powers to stop Jedi gains on other planets. And this all falls to pieces if you suspect I'm sith. But at least i'm trying to help! Give me a chance to catch a Sith. And if you do kill me, remember this analysis for tomorrow, when I turn up village.
Assuran
TylerJ on League of Legends (it's free and fun!)
Well, yes, but I'd prefer to live... :P
They are not both mafia. Mafia may park inconsequential votes on each other as cover, but a mafia actually trying to throw another mafia under the bus to dodge the wagon makes no sense.
Of the votes going I would back the Peccavi vote, just for the mission data. Sorry peccavi.
Except that, if we kill Peccavi (which is looking likely) and he is mafia, we now trust Assuran more. Which I'm sure you can see the benefit of, from his perspective, if they are both mafia. Same if we keep Peccavi and kill Assuran. We now trust Peccavi more.
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I think he is saying to "kill them all, let God sort'em out," on the theory that at least one of them is probably mafia, so we should just kill them both. We would of course apologize and release the good one from stasis when this whole ugly mess is over.
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We trust Peccavi more because he found you guys a mafia and the mafia have tried to bandwagon him all game.
George is gettin upset!
The general idea is that if one of you is, it's worth killing both of you to find the mafia instead of leaving 1 alive on the chance that they are not mafia.
TylerJ on League of Legends (it's free and fun!)
There were four Padawans on Fondor: captainplanet, peccavi, malkor and rawwking goodguy. The Sith have been killing knights with Sith Padawans. Only one of those on Fondor is still a padawan. That's the math leading me to peccavi.
Also, the council is killing malkor tonight.
And on that note, off to watch avengers in 3-d
Peccavi 7 (Bedlam, Shiny New Toys, Gaslight, Grunt's Ghosts, Saber Over Easy, Ketbra, SeGaTai)
Bedlam 4 (Anialos, pablo_price, sportzboyjtw, schuss)
kime 2 (Rawkking Goodguy, Retaba)
Assuran 1 (Peccavi)
SNT can confirm Cap was with me the next few days which also screws with my point total.
Still
Hard to go against the network head that found us a mafia just yesterday. And most likely had a hand in killing the other two.
Any number of players who I've played with before can confirm this fact.
And the network head specifically said there wouldn't be a network vote today. This vote isn't based on secret network information, it's based on stuff that's in the thread. Don't use the network head as an excuse to not do your own analysis tonight.
WHAT IS EVEN GOIN ON!
I'll just crawl back into my hole, thanks. Call me when theres a bus I need to be thrown under.
@Smoove Operator: Some may consider one mafia for one villager a more than fair trade, but I'm loath to accept the idea of a probable villager as collateral damage when better logic is against that course of action.
Assuran.
Saber's logic for me works exactly the same for Assuran, minus the fact that mafia have repeatedly voted for me (i'd personally say that's in my favor for being Jedi). If two points were missing from Fondor night 1, the simplest solution is that a knight was the traitor. A mafia knight getting their village padawan to support them helps explain how the mafia did so well night 1.
Better logic is not against it. If there are 1 Sith for every 4 Jedi, then I would gladly trade lives to take them out and end up with 3 Jedi alive and all of those Sith dead.
TylerJ on League of Legends (it's free and fun!)
Logic says it is much more likely only one of the two is mafia than that both are, for reasons already outlined.
We pick one or the other, if we're right, great, we have slain a mafioso and probably saved a villager. If we're wrong, we can still look at the other person the next night. If we take out both now (one through vote, one vigged or whatever) then chances are we get one mafia while losing one villager in the process...that's decent, but getting one mafia while not losing a villager to do it is a lot better.
There is such a thing as "acceptable losses" but you shouldn't accept them if there's a plan which is just as effective with lesser/no risk of collateral damage available.
In any case, this is out of our hands, the council have already said who they are killing (why, I'm not entirely sure...), that leaves it up to the vig.
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Peccavi is dying, but I think Assuran is more suspicious.
But if you guys fuck this up and don't get Assuran killed tonight,
Peccavi tonight. Not really feeling that, but I really wasn't feeling vert last night until she revealed. Saber seems to have a good read so far!
I have some ideas about where to look tomorrow though.
But I want Peccavi to die, so if the vote drastically changes, I will go to you, Peccavi. The Assuran vote is a vote of faith that, if you die village and Assuran doesn't die, I'll remember
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