Club PA 2.0 has arrived! If you'd like to access some extra PA content and help support the forums, check it out at patreon.com/ClubPA
The image size limit has been raised to 1mb! Anything larger than that should be linked to. This is a HARD limit, please do not abuse it.
Our new Indie Games subforum is now open for business in G&T. Go and check it out, you might land a code for a free game. If you're developing an indie game and want to post about it, follow these directions. If you don't, he'll break your legs! Hahaha! Seriously though.
Our rules have been updated and given their own forum. Go and look at them! They are nice, and there may be new ones that you didn't know about! Hooray for rules! Hooray for The System! Hooray for Conforming!

Presidential Election 2012: I'm too old for this Mitt.

StericaSterica Halloween JapesRegistered User, Moderator mod
edited August 2012 in Singularity Engine++
Notice: I got permission to do this thread. Behave yourselves or we'll lose it. This also does not mean that political threads are okay now.

Topics Probably Best Avoided
Your Not-Voting: you are not voting for Obama/Romney because they aren't True [Your Political Philosophy Here] and thus you are abstaining/voting third party to send a message. I'm not saying it's valid thing to do (or not do), but it generally causes silly fights and has a slim chances of convincing anyone.
Warble Warble Third Party: Voting for third party is a valid choice, and we don't need to get into big fights over whether or not it's throwing away one's vote. We're all impending victims of the corporate/communist machine anyhow, so who cares?
Fighting Over Politics: Getting into arguments over issues like guns, gay rights, or if Hamilton could beat up Chewbacca in a fight are generally the best way to get threads locked. This includes stupid shit like birthers.
Avoid the Echo Chamber: There will likely be one, maybe two people that are sincerely going to vote for Romney. Shit, there may be even three or four. These people are your fellow citizens, and still deserve a modicum of civility. Don't dogpile a person just because he or she is saying stuff your disagree with. If they you feel someone is being blatantly stupid to the point where they might trolling, then report their asses and move on.

Disclaimer: I am not an SE++ mod, and these are just general guidelines to help keep the thread healthy and happy. That said, I won't hesitate to toss any of you into the greedy, greedy jaws of the mods if you try to sabotage this thread with shit-headed shenanigans.

sASY7.png
Incumbents tend to enjoy an advantage in elections, though that applies more to congressional campaigns than the presidential ones. Particularly during rough economic times, it can be very disadvantageous to be the incumbent when your policies have either failed, been stymied by the opposition, or just haven't had time to show noticeable results yet.

F9HEQ.png
President Barack "The Islamic Shock" Obama
51 Years Old

mJDDZ.png
Vice President "Mighty" Joe Biden
69 Years Old

Democratic Party
Strengths: Obama had a pretty strong campaign in 2008, able to draw in a lot of young and minority votes. He is also quite famous for his ability to deliver a speech, which will help on the campaign trail. A number of other accomplishments as president such as bringing down Don't Ask; Don't Tell, the Affordable Care Act, support of gay marriage, winding down the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the death of Osama Bin Laden may earn him the votes of independents. Also, his running mate is not Paul Ryan.

Weaknesses: This is an economy election, and the economy has not improved to a point that will impress swing voters. Obama's other achievements will easily be eclipsed by this one point, and it will be difficult convincing people that his policies will work if he's given another four years. He has also left the liberal base feeling very cold at times by keeping Gitmo open, being too wishy-washy in contentious situations such as last year's debt ceiling fiasco, his use of drone strikes, and doing little to reverse the increased powers that the Bush Administration granted the office. This could easily kill the high youth vote Obama enjoyed in 2008.

PGN95.png
Challengers, while lacking the recognition of the president, enjoy being free from the burden of having any kind of presidential record to potential weigh them down. On the other hand, a fierce primary like the oddball GOP one of 2012 can dredge up a lot of ammunition for the opposition party.

uIAsS.png
Massachusetts Governor Mitt "Mittens" Romney
65 Years Old

NqXaC.png
Representative Paul "Psycho" Ryan
42 Years Old

Republican Party
Strengths: Romney's success as a businessman is seen as a plus by the general public when it comes to providing solutions to the economy. He's seen as more moderate than other members of his party, which can help woo independents. Romney also has a TON of cash being pumped into his campaign from various sources which, if it tops Obama's war chest, will allow the Romney camp better control of the narrative this election season. Paul Ryan adds charisma and hardline conservatism to the ticket. Hands-down has the best hair of either side.

Weaknesses: His base demands nothing less than ideological purity, perhaps moreso than Obama's base, and this could leave a lot of GOP voters staying home. The pick of Paul Ryan was good red meat for the base, but the McCain tried a similar strategy with Sarah Palin that led to disastrous results. His businessman veneer may not be so hot in an atmosphere that isn't too welcoming of rich corporate types, and Romney is hyper-rich to the point where he'll look cold and out-of-touch even when compared to the rest of these rich politicians.

vfVZy.png
For those not familiar with the government of Eagle Land, the citizens were deemed "frightfully slow-witted" by the Founding Fathers and thus not allowed to directly vote for president. Instead, there's an electoral college that votes for president. Each state gets a number of electoral votes that are awarded to one candidate when he or she wins the state. The number of votes is some arbitrary number that George Washington came up with after a bar fight the total number of representatives and senators a state has. As a result, bigger states tend to be more popular (as representatives are determined by population, whereas senators are a static two per state). Technically, there is no guarantee that a member of the college has to vote in any particular way, but the party heads get to choose the voters so this is rarely a thing. I believe an elector voter abstained once as a purely symbolic gesture during the 2000 election.

So politicians want big states, but they're also realists and won't waste too many resources on "stronghold" states that historically vote for one party by a very margin. The two best-known stronghold states are California (Democrat) and Texas (Republican). As a result, the target is normally "battlefield" states that aren't polling strongly either way. So, thanks to the way things are set up, the votes in a vast majority of states don't really matter, and it boils down to a handful of states. This is, of course, the short run. States can and have gone from stronghold to battlefield and vice-versa, so you should vote anyways.

This year's battlefields look to be...

Virginia
Nevada
Iowa
Ohio
Florida
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin (Paul Ryan represents this state)
Massachusetts (typically Democrat, but Romney is their governor)
Minnesota
Colorado

All of these states voted for Obama in 2008, but that doesn't mean he can count on them this year. Also, it's still early in the season, so it's possible that these states might fall out of play as times marches on.

The magic number of votes to win is 270. If neither candidate can reach that amount, then they get greased up and wrestle. Best three out of five is the winner.

YL9WnCY.png
Sterica on
«134567104

Posts

  • satansfingerssatansfingers Registered User regular
    the hell kind of politics thread would it be without fighting over politics or entering the echo chamber

  • ChicoBlueChicoBlue Registered User regular
    I'm going to vote for the handsomest candidate.

    Let's argue about who is the most attractive.

  • ToxTox I kill threads Punch DimensionRegistered User regular
    yay politics thread.

    So with Ryan as the nominee I'm not really sure how I feel. For a while I was convinced that if Romney wins in November, and ended up being too moderate, he'd potentially face a right-wing challenger in 2016 in the primary.

    I still think that, but I could honestly see Ryan being that challenger, being "drafted" by the right wing to replace Romney if he doesn't "stay true" to his "conservative values"

    Wishlists! General | Gaming | Comics | Dilige, et quod vis fac
  • ASimPersonASimPerson And they will tremble again at the sound of our silence!Registered User regular
    I like http://www.electoral-vote.com/ for their predictions. They're usually right, and to be honest, it looks to me like the action is really going to be in the Senatorial elections this year.

    redoctober2.png
    SE++ Forum Battle Archive | PDT is not PST | DRUNKSTUCK: A Homestuck recap
  • ZayZay yes i am zay Registered User regular
    the hell kind of politics thread would it be without fighting over politics or entering the echo chamber

    you can disagree with someone but not too much

    similarly, you can agree with someone but not too much

  • UbikUbik another one of the law guys Registered User regular
    edited August 2012
    e: i'm wrong

    Ubik on
  • UbikUbik another one of the law guys Registered User regular
  • PharezonPharezon Struggle is an illusion. Victory is in the Qun.Registered User regular
    ASimPerson wrote: »
    I like http://www.electoral-vote.com/ for their predictions. They're usually right, and to be honest, it looks to me like the action is really going to be in the Senatorial elections this year.

    Like it is every time.

    jkZziGc.png
  • ToxTox I kill threads Punch DimensionRegistered User regular
    ASimPerson wrote: »
    I like http://www.electoral-vote.com/ for their predictions. They're usually right, and to be honest, it looks to me like the action is really going to be in the Senatorial elections this year.

    If that senate prediction is correct, it will in all likelihood be the do-nothing-est of congresses.

    Wishlists! General | Gaming | Comics | Dilige, et quod vis fac
  • StericaSterica Halloween Japes Registered User, Moderator mod
    Ubik wrote: »
    You're Not-Voting
    Wrong

    YL9WnCY.png
  • JarsJars Registered User regular
    mitt romney is seriously the worst candidate in the last 50 years. maybe ever. he's pretty much an experiment on if you really can buy an election

  • UbikUbik another one of the law guys Registered User regular
    edited August 2012
    ohhhh

    now i get it

    my bad!

    Ubik on
  • UbikUbik another one of the law guys Registered User regular
    edited August 2012
    double post

    Ubik on
  • MrMonroeMrMonroe Registered User regular
    ChicoBlue wrote: »
    I'm going to vote for the handsomest candidate.

    Let's argue about who is the most attractive.

    It was Obama, but now...

    I'll bet @Jasconius is fucking thrilled about this

  • StericaSterica Halloween Japes Registered User, Moderator mod
    Jars wrote: »
    mitt romney is seriously the worst candidate in the last 50 years. maybe ever. he's pretty much an experiment on if you really can buy an election
    With the Citizens United decision, does it even matter who is the candidate?

    Also, Romney outspent his opponents by a LOT in the primary, and still lost in several states. This election will be fun.

    YL9WnCY.png
  • PharezonPharezon Struggle is an illusion. Victory is in the Qun.Registered User regular
    Jars wrote: »
    mitt romney is seriously the worst candidate in the last 50 years. maybe ever. he's pretty much an experiment on if you really can buy an election

    You misspelled Ronald Reagan.

    jkZziGc.png
  • -Tal-Tal Registered User regular
    I have put my full support behind Mew to win the Pokemon Power Bracket

    paBaVtZ.jpg
  • AntimatterAntimatter Registered User regular
    i'm voting Dro-Bot for skylander of the year

  • LabelLabel Registered User regular
    Can we talk about how offensively stupid anarchists are?

    Like, holy shiiiiit i want to hurt them they make me want to cry.

  • JarsJars Registered User regular
    if anything the ryan nomination helps democrats in down ticket races because everyone hates his budget and for good reason. Just as an example I live next to NY26th which went blue for the first time in 150 years because of his budget.

  • ToxTox I kill threads Punch DimensionRegistered User regular
    Rorus Raz wrote: »
    Jars wrote: »
    mitt romney is seriously the worst candidate in the last 50 years. maybe ever. he's pretty much an experiment on if you really can buy an election
    With the Citizens United decision, does it even matter who is the candidate?

    Also, Romney outspent his opponents by a LOT in the primary, and still lost in several states. This election will be fun.

    Ironically, everybody was afraid that Citizens United would result in corporations buying candidates, like NASCARs, but it's actually been the mega-wealthy people running those corporations, not the corporate entities themselves, that have been doing it.

    Wishlists! General | Gaming | Comics | Dilige, et quod vis fac
  • -Tal-Tal Registered User regular
    Pharezon wrote: »
    Jars wrote: »
    mitt romney is seriously the worst candidate in the last 50 years. maybe ever. he's pretty much an experiment on if you really can buy an election

    You misspelled Ronald Reagan.

    Ronald Reagan? The actor?

    paBaVtZ.jpg
  • PharezonPharezon Struggle is an illusion. Victory is in the Qun.Registered User regular
    Label wrote: »
    Can we talk about how offensively stupid anarchists are?

    Like, holy shiiiiit i want to hurt them they make me want to cry.

    What kind of anarchists are we talking about here? I'm willing to bet you've got a few misconceptions of what real anarchists are.

    jkZziGc.png
  • JarsJars Registered User regular
    edited August 2012
    Pharezon wrote: »
    Jars wrote: »
    mitt romney is seriously the worst candidate in the last 50 years. maybe ever. he's pretty much an experiment on if you really can buy an election

    You misspelled Ronald Reagan.

    in terms of actual campaigning abilities? I'm not saying he's bad as in I think mitt romney would destroy the country(though I do) I'm saying he is terrible at the actual act of running for president.

    Jars on
  • MrMonroeMrMonroe Registered User regular
    Pharezon wrote: »
    Label wrote: »
    Can we talk about how offensively stupid anarchists are?

    Like, holy shiiiiit i want to hurt them they make me want to cry.

    What kind of anarchists are we talking about here? I'm willing to bet you've got a few misconceptions of what real anarchists are.

    yeah but once you clear up the misconceptions most people still find them offensively stupid

  • -Tal-Tal Registered User regular
    I would be okay if people stopped expressing a desire to hurt human beings just because they believe in something that is dumb

    paBaVtZ.jpg
  • PharezonPharezon Struggle is an illusion. Victory is in the Qun.Registered User regular
    Jars wrote: »
    Pharezon wrote: »
    Jars wrote: »
    mitt romney is seriously the worst candidate in the last 50 years. maybe ever. he's pretty much an experiment on if you really can buy an election

    You misspelled Ronald Reagan.

    in terms of actual campaigning abilities?

    No, I figured you were talking overall.

    jkZziGc.png
  • StericaSterica Halloween Japes Registered User, Moderator mod
    Well, Jars said candidate, which generally implies ability to get elected.

    Can't say Ronald McDonald did a bad job there.

    YL9WnCY.png
  • UbikUbik another one of the law guys Registered User regular
    anarchists are the worst

  • ASimPersonASimPerson And they will tremble again at the sound of our silence!Registered User regular
    Tox wrote: »
    ASimPerson wrote: »
    I like http://www.electoral-vote.com/ for their predictions. They're usually right, and to be honest, it looks to me like the action is really going to be in the Senatorial elections this year.

    If that senate prediction is correct, it will in all likelihood be the do-nothing-est of congresses.

    Well, that wouldn't be much different than it is now, with a very slight Democrat majority.

    The site used to try to track the House races but there's not enough reliable polling data.

    redoctober2.png
    SE++ Forum Battle Archive | PDT is not PST | DRUNKSTUCK: A Homestuck recap
  • ToxTox I kill threads Punch DimensionRegistered User regular
    Although word on the street is if the Dems keep the majority, they will be killing the filibuster, or at the very least dropping the threshold needed to get cloture below 60, probably at least as far as 55.

    Wishlists! General | Gaming | Comics | Dilige, et quod vis fac
  • WeedLordVegetaWeedLordVegeta Registered User regular
    Minnesota will go blue

    The urban turnout (all blue) will be greater than the red turnout (literally everywhere else)

    25Mj5br.png
  • StericaSterica Halloween Japes Registered User, Moderator mod
    Tox wrote: »
    Although word on the street is if the Dems keep the majority, they will be killing the filibuster, or at the very least dropping the threshold needed to get cloture below 60, probably at least as far as 55.
    It was their fault that the filibuster became such an easy weapon to use in the first place (you don't have to actually talk anymore, so you don't even have the physical endurance part of it).

    YL9WnCY.png
  • satansfingerssatansfingers Registered User regular
    bernie sanders doing an actual filibuster where he talked forever was so wonderful

  • ToxTox I kill threads Punch DimensionRegistered User regular
    Rorus Raz wrote: »
    Tox wrote: »
    Although word on the street is if the Dems keep the majority, they will be killing the filibuster, or at the very least dropping the threshold needed to get cloture below 60, probably at least as far as 55.
    It was their fault that the filibuster became such an easy weapon to use in the first place (you don't have to actually talk anymore, so you don't even have the physical endurance part of it).

    yes also that. Would just love if the Dems killed the filibuster in the senate. Just said something like you need 55 votes to meet cloture and the other side has to actually filibuster if they intend to.

    Wishlists! General | Gaming | Comics | Dilige, et quod vis fac
  • HallowedFaithHallowedFaith Call me Cloud. Registered User regular
    Tox wrote: »
    Although word on the street is if the Dems keep the majority, they will be killing the filibuster, or at the very least dropping the threshold needed to get cloture below 60, probably at least as far as 55.

    This is what I am hoping for the most.

    I'm making video games. DesignBy.Cloud
  • ThatDudeOverThereThatDudeOverThere Clock King Registered User regular
    Obama's got my "I'm not actually particularly confident in your ability to govern but the other guy kind of scares the shit out of me" vote

  • Mr FuzzbuttMr Fuzzbutt Registered User regular
    hot chocolate, high velocity

    FYYss9j.png
  • JarsJars Registered User regular
    it needs to be toned down at the least. there is something like 160 federal appointments that need to be done yet can't be because republicans have proven that they would burn the entire country down if it meant obama might look bad

  • nightmarennynightmarenny Registered User regular
    Jars wrote: »
    it needs to be toned down at the least. there is something like 160 federal appointments that need to be done yet can't be because republicans have proven that they would burn the entire country down if it meant obama might look bad
    Lets let that sink in for a second.

    The very first goddamn thing the president is supposed to do.

    The think he submits at the very beginning of his term.

    Congress still hasn't done it.

    We are about to vote on who should be the next President and Congress hasn't managed that first fucking thing yet.

    If someone had told me this when I first started looking into politics I would have called it a joke.

    And I'd be right.

    Quire.jpg
«134567104
This discussion has been closed.