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[2012 Presidential Election] Fewer Horses, More Hugs
moniker
Registered User regular
Registered User regular
So the election is ~24 days away. Have you voted yet? Volunteered? Donated? Made snarky comments in political threads on an internet forum hosted by a web comic about video games and penises?
To recap the most recent news...there was a debate! Between the Vice Presidential Candidates! It was kind of awesome!
Full tape:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3roG09O6T4&feature=related
Highlights:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEqKwv17b44
How will this impact the polls? Well, as with everything, we'll find out in a week or so since polling is backward looking and takes awhile for events to fully integrate into their methodology. As of right now RCP has Romney up by 1.3% in their poll of polls, Pollster has Obama up by 0.2%. Most of the difference seems attributable to relatively strong Romney/Obama polls (respectively) that are now nearly a week old. Once things get a bit more updated over the next couple days that should smooth out somewhat to give a better picture of post convention bounce, post 47% comment, post debate, post jobs report, post veep debate picture. Which is just a long winded way of saying, ask again later.
Also, this still hasn't stopped being funny:
We also just had another debate! With Presidential Candidates! One of them likes to hire women! From binders!
Full tape:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=QEpCrcMF5Ps
Libya highlight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=RcTDE5stw7w
We also just had another, another debate! With Presidential Candidates! Talking about their important Foreign Policy ideas of increasing American Jobs here at home.
Full tape:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=tecohezcA78
Battleship highlight:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZTNS54Vl1c
To recap the most recent news...there was a debate! Between the Vice Presidential Candidates! It was kind of awesome!
Full tape:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3roG09O6T4&feature=relatedHighlights:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEqKwv17b44How will this impact the polls? Well, as with everything, we'll find out in a week or so since polling is backward looking and takes awhile for events to fully integrate into their methodology. As of right now RCP has Romney up by 1.3% in their poll of polls, Pollster has Obama up by 0.2%. Most of the difference seems attributable to relatively strong Romney/Obama polls (respectively) that are now nearly a week old. Once things get a bit more updated over the next couple days that should smooth out somewhat to give a better picture of post convention bounce, post 47% comment, post debate, post jobs report, post veep debate picture. Which is just a long winded way of saying, ask again later.
Also, this still hasn't stopped being funny:
We also just had another debate! With Presidential Candidates! One of them likes to hire women! From binders!
Full tape:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=QEpCrcMF5Ps
Libya highlight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=RcTDE5stw7w
We also just had another, another debate! With Presidential Candidates! Talking about their important Foreign Policy ideas of increasing American Jobs here at home.
Full tape:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=tecohezcA78
Battleship highlight:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZTNS54Vl1c moniker on
+2
This discussion has been closed.
Posts
-So whoever called Romney carpet bombing the airwaves towards the end. You were right. Now hopefully this will blow up in the republicans face because as someone who lives in a swing state, most of the advertising has been annoying and the GOP stuff has been the worst of it.
I personally think that undervoting particular races on the basis of your policy preferences can be a valid strategic decision; this is essentially what the republican base has done over the last ten years or so and arguably it has produced good results (good if you are a crazy right winger, anyway.) The problem is that this thinking can only be reasonably applied to specific races/candidates. People who do the whole "I don't vote because they're all crooks" thing are lazy, dumb, unreasonable or all three.
If you legitimately think everybody in public office is a crook that should motivate you to inform yourself and take action, not the other way around. I don't volunteer my time because I think everybody in public office has my best interest at heart.
that's why we call it the struggle, you're supposed to sweat
See - American history.
So expect the the EC forecast to probably bounce between 280 and 310 for the rest of the campaign season IMO.
Most people likely don't read the OP after we get past page 8 or so, and the people who generally post random idiotic crap wouldn't stay their hand from the reply button because I was rules lawyering in the OP. Just ignore the stupid stuff, or take a break if the thread is getting annoying. Before too long Jeffe will come in and yell at us for being terrible people, and we'll move on; being slightly less terrible people who are still pretty terrible. Such is the way of election threads.
You do realize that by the time you typed the third sentence of this paragraph you might as well have added that "this is germane" stuff?
Ah, that new thread smell. Nary a twinge of urine soaked pants to be found.
Let's try and keep it that way.
Yes...if you ignore all of the reasons that I listed for not doing it, I suppose I could have.
I could have done it by now as well, actually.
Or now.
It'll be interesting to see how much narrative and tactics start to shift now that things are starting to come back to the mean of roughly around where they were before the conventions, only a little bit tighter and even fewer 'undecided voters' to draw from.
At this point, I don't even care if it is true.
I just want to be able to sleep.
True, and Arizona did manage to elect a Democratic governor before she got poached by the Cabinet. At the same time, though, it is Arizona. I'd probably say give it a couple more cycles before it starts to look more like Colorado or New Mexico. I'm sure it'll turn purple/blue before Texas does, and I do expect Texas to turn purple before 2030, but that's probably not going to matter quite as much next month. We'll see, but I don't know if its worth getting hopes up for.
It'd be pretty amazing if the Hispanics decided to really show their strength. They wouldn't be strong enough to see Texas go blue or even purple this election, but anything that puts pressure on the Republicans is good, and it could especially be a strong downticket influence.
That would pretty much be a death star shot to any Republican presidential candidate.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Give it a decade and a half or so.
...well that's GG, Romney.
I don't think that I'd legally be allowed to do so.
But I have donated and I have voted so...
And I've definitely made snarky posts in an internet thread.
yay! I'm almost completely a big girl!
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
If all the Latinos in Texas were citizens (as opposed to legal or non-legal residents) then Texas could absolutely turn blue. The only ethnicity the GOP wins in Texas is non-Hispanic whites which now only accounts for 45% of the population. But non-Hispanic whites make up ~60% of the voters in Presidential years (more in other elections I expect), which is why its not that competitive.
The AZ poll is most likely an outlier though
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Depends on what the GOP does to capture racial and religious minorities. Right now their doing a fine job of alienating all groups that aren't white Christians. Advances in medicine are another factor since we're kind of waiting for the boomer population to shrink, anything that keeps them alive longer and mentally fit enough to vote, adds time on. The next global pandemic, which I think we've been due for a while, could also speed things along on that front. Finally, the GOP could also speed things up by becoming even more batshit crazy, I know they have some voters that are going to bail if they get any crazier.
Yer sig man. It's like, did they get Paul Ryan in a room and go:
Ok, now look like a douche!
No, douchier.
Come on, douchier!
Just, imagine you are going up to a random person at the gym to tell them how they are doing their workout wrong.
Yeah, that's the look!
Is this significant
This is significant right
It is the same.
It is proof that all the "My nightmares!" crap is just that: malarkey.
It basically means Romney has to carry all the people who haven't voted yet by 10 points (ie - he needs at least 56% of the remaining voters)
I remember when I realized that the backwards cap wasn't photoshopped.
Who agrees to that kind of photo shoot?!?
An idiot, that's who.
Paul Ryan apparently.
Good news, but not decisive. Running the math (numbers from Wolfram):
Ohio population: 11.5 MM
Over 18 - 74.1% (8.529 MM)
turnout rate 65% (5.544 MM likely voters)
19% early voters = 1,053,332 ( 800,532 Obama, 252,800 Romney)
Remainder is 4,490,669, split is then 2,290,241 Romney, 2,200,428 Obama.
Total rolled up: 3,000,960 Obama, 2,543,041 Romney. Or, 54% Obama, 46% Romney.
Lot of assumptions in there vis a vis proportional turnout, things may change, extrapolating from a single poll, etc etc. But good news.
You make it sound like it wasn't his idea?