Debt Ceiling Debacle 2013: It's the End of the World As We Know It and the GOP Feels Fine

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  • DeebaserDeebaser on my way to work in a suit and a tie Ahhhh...come on fucking guyRegistered User regular
    Deebaser wrote: »
    mcdermott wrote: »
    Vanguard wrote: »
    Living in SF or NYC is a luxury, for the billionth time.

    For people who move there yes

    Not everyone gets a say in where they live

    Because commuting is not an option. Apparently.

    Also, to my knowledge pretty much every adult gets a say in where they live. I mean, there are a few corner cases (sex offenders who are barred by expansive restrictions, or active military who receive generous housing allowances) but for the most part you choose your own adventure.

    What do you think is a reasonable mortgage for a middle class dual income family of $60000?

    Owning a home makes you upper class. Don't you know the middle class live in their cars?

    Looking at the "middle class" homes going for 150,000 and renting for sub <1100 on Trulia is p depressing.

    DisruptedCapitalist
  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Hey guys the "middle class" is not the topic here

    maybe make a new thread

    ChanusKnight_CommunistCow
  • RozRoz Boss of InternetRegistered User regular
    A sick, dark, vengeful part of me wants us to go to over for just a few days so all these ignorant apologists can finally see the Republican party for what they've become.

    Then my sanity regains its foothold on my emotions, and I realize how fucking awful that would be for pretty much everyone.

  • ChanusChanus Ribbit! Registered User regular
    Roz wrote: »
    A sick, dark, vengeful part of me wants us to go to over for just a few days so all these ignorant apologists can finally see the Republican party for what they've become.

    Then my sanity regains its foothold on my emotions, and I realize how fucking awful that would be for pretty much everyone.

    That's kind of the thing...

    If you're still checked-out enough to not realize how awful Republicans are for this country, there's probably no hope for you.

    **Winner Softest and Most Comfy Hugs Award Summer 2018**

    Blueberrywerewlf on the Sony Anime Games Box | BluberryWerewlf on the BroBone
  • DisruptedCapitalistDisruptedCapitalist rugged, weathered Registered User regular
    Roz wrote: »
    A sick, dark, vengeful part of me wants us to go to over for just a few days so all these ignorant apologists can finally see the Republican party for what they've become.

    Then my sanity regains its foothold on my emotions, and I realize how fucking awful that would be for pretty much everyone.

    Wouldn't work anyway. Even if a majority of the public were disgusted with the GOP, they're securely gerrymandered into their districts. Even those who aren't completely wingnut are afraid of primary challenges since their districts are so gerrymandered into a Tea Party corner. How do you think Michelle Bachmann keeps getting reelected?

  • RozRoz Boss of InternetRegistered User regular
    Roz wrote: »
    A sick, dark, vengeful part of me wants us to go to over for just a few days so all these ignorant apologists can finally see the Republican party for what they've become.

    Then my sanity regains its foothold on my emotions, and I realize how fucking awful that would be for pretty much everyone.

    Wouldn't work anyway. Even if a majority of the public were disgusted with the GOP, they're securely gerrymandered into their districts. Even those who aren't completely wingnut are afraid of primary challenges since their districts are so gerrymandered into a Tea Party corner. How do you think Michelle Bachmann keeps getting reelected?

    Racists.

  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    Roz wrote: »
    A sick, dark, vengeful part of me wants us to go to over for just a few days so all these ignorant apologists can finally see the Republican party for what they've become.

    Then my sanity regains its foothold on my emotions, and I realize how fucking awful that would be for pretty much everyone.

    Wouldn't work anyway. Even if a majority of the public were disgusted with the GOP, they're securely gerrymandered into their districts. Even those who aren't completely wingnut are afraid of primary challenges since their districts are so gerrymandered into a Tea Party corner. How do you think Michelle Bachmann keeps getting reelected?

    I'm wondering what the Cook PVI will look like after this election in incorporated. Right now the middle district is only R+3 which is significant but not insurmountable with a horrible/representative republican candidate.

  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    edited January 2013
    Disrupter wrote: »
    Veevee wrote: »
    It's possible to live in utter poverty while making $60k a year, my brother does it!

    25% of his pay goes to bankruptcy, pays student loans, drives a truck that gets 7mpg, and recently moved even further away from work putting his monthly gas bill at ~$800 in addition to the monthly cigs and booze bill

    also he spent $40,000 on a degree for his wife in graphic arts because its what she wanted despite having no aptitude or motivation to make anything of it. They lost their house with only $400 total remaining left on the mortage "because the house wasn't very good anyway", despite offers to help them pay for it but "nah I got it don't worry about it".

    Blames all his problems on Obama, because he doesn't qualify for welfare and he knows people on food stamps (most recently, me) who live better than him, who can fill our fridges up and eat better than hot dogs and spaghetti. All Obama's fault, makin life so easy for the poorz

    Edit: he spent over $300 per child on Christmas gifts this year, that's sure a good use of your bonus there, that'll make your kids love you

    /bitter

    I haven't said it in this particular thread, but the usual phrase I add to that is "unless you're doing something wrong" and I wouldn't exactly call this "living in utter poverty".

    Well sure, but his children live about as well as I did under a single mom who was making $8/hour except they have xboxes. It makes political arguments especially stupefying.

    Does he live in Waukesha or Janesville? I bet it's Waukesha

    Belvidere Illinois

    A pretty conservative town owned by General Mills

    Wait what? On 60K I could live like a king in Belvidere! My wife is from Rockford and has family in Belividere. What I pay for my 3 bedroom townhouse in Algonquin, I could have a mansion in Belvidere!
    they have to take care of 3 kids, one is blind one has cancer

    :( Nevermind, if I had issues like that I would probably be a financial and emotional mess and hate Obama too. Judgement is taken back. :

    His kids with those conditions are both over 18 and on his insurance thanks to Obamacare, and he blames Obama for his health premiums going up

    It's staggering
    there's nothing we could stop paying that's large enough and wouldn't get the government sued forcing a default anyway

    furthermore as the pie plates start crashing the market will flip the fuck out

    I don't follow. I don't know the size of our monthly debt service costs, but surely they are far less than the overall cost of operating the government.

    Depends on the type of debt.

    There's almost certainly a lot of pending bills for work which was started under the congressional budget. The US government can't exactly buy X million units of MREs, then go "yeah um, we don't need them anymore, can you take them back?"

    I suspect it would be very difficult to actually determine how much outlying liability the US government has coming in compared to revenues at any given instant in time. It might be less then receipts but that uncertainty itself would be a disaster to have called into question.

    On top of, of course, the sudden cessation of every service in the government and massive unemployment from all the private contractors who suddenly have lost their biggest - possibly only significant - client.


    Basically the government has lots and lots of financial obligations, foreign and domestic, and chosing to just not pay them is a default

    Not paying for planes the government bought is still defaulting, its different than failing to pass a continuing resolution or something because that is allocating new funding, this is funding that has already been allocated to pay for things we've agreed to buy - I doubt there's enough optional spending for Obama to just pick and chose what to save without causing the same kind of default that not paying the foreign debt would.

    I could be wrong

    override367 on
  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    If we stop paying some of our bills, I would expect at least one of the ratings agencies to downgrade us from AA to SD (selective default).

  • DeebaserDeebaser on my way to work in a suit and a tie Ahhhh...come on fucking guyRegistered User regular
    enc0re wrote: »
    If we stop paying some of our bills, I would expect at least one of the ratings agencies to downgrade us from AA to SD (selective default).

    Who cares about S&Ps bullshit rating scales. AA ratings are for batteries

  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Alexandria, VARegistered User regular
    Only one of the ratings agencies has us at AA instead of AAA anyway.

  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    Fitch said they'd downgrade us if we don't get our shit together soon.

    And I want to be clear, this isn't because of how much debt we have. It's because we let the Republicans sit on the couch and now they think they're people.

    Lh96QHG.png
    ChanusDivideByZeroAbsalonGiggles_FunsworthDeebaserTheBlackWindoverride367Milldavidsdurions
  • DeebaserDeebaser on my way to work in a suit and a tie Ahhhh...come on fucking guyRegistered User regular
    Only one of the ratings agencies has us at AA instead of AAA anyway.

    the dumb one imo

  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Deebaser wrote: »
    Only one of the ratings agencies has us at AA instead of AAA anyway.

    the dumb one imo

    Based on the last decade, they're all pretty fucking stupid/incompetent.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
    Hacksawoverride367CommunistCowshryke
  • YougottawannaYougottawanna Registered User regular
    About choosing which bills to pay, and "can't we maybe still keep the government kind of functional if we have some tax revenue?" The answer appears to be no. Here's an article that goes into detail: washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/14/if-we-hit-the-debt-ceiling-can-obama-choose-which-bills-to-pay/?wprss=rss_ezra-klein&wpisrc=nl_wonk

    Short version: the Treasury makes 80 MILLION seperate payments a month. Trying to sort through all that and prioritize would almost certainly be unworkable. Bond payments would probably be prioritized, and after that it'd be a clusterfuck.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    About choosing which bills to pay, and "can't we maybe still keep the government kind of functional if we have some tax revenue?" The answer appears to be no. Here's an article that goes into detail: washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/14/if-we-hit-the-debt-ceiling-can-obama-choose-which-bills-to-pay/?wprss=rss_ezra-klein&wpisrc=nl_wonk

    Short version: the Treasury makes 80 MILLION seperate payments a month. Trying to sort through all that and prioritize would almost certainly be unworkable. Bond payments would probably be prioritized, and after that it'd be a clusterfuck.

    I would guess that if they had to do it they would have the government make all external payments (foreign contractors, debt payments) pay installments on previously done work and not pay anything else. So EVERY application for funding from a domestic source made after the debt ceiling was reached would be denied.

    So no SS checks, every medicare claim denied, all ongoing federal construction projects stop, soldiers aren't paid etc

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Defaulting on one creditor is enough to shake your confidence in all of them. If you've got 20 credit cards and decide to only pay off 19 of them your overall credit score will still suffer(and those other 19 will probably raise your rates)

  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    Only one of the ratings agencies has us at AA instead of AAA anyway.

    You are of course correct. When looking at credit ratings, I always go with the minimum of the Big Three. That crept into my post.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Defaulting on one creditor is enough to shake your confidence in all of them. If you've got 20 credit cards and decide to only pay off 19 of them your overall credit score will still suffer(and those other 19 will probably raise your rates)

    Yes, but in this case it's more like you owe money on 5 credit cards, need to pay the bills on 5 contractors who already did work for you, but you also have 5 contractors who are doing new work, and you promised to pay for your 5 kids to go to school.

    All the expenditure is real and critical, but only 50% represents money already spent, the rest is going concerns which can (disasterously, but not illegally) be stopped.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • spacekungfumanspacekungfuman Poor and minority-filled Registered User, __BANNED USERS regular
    About choosing which bills to pay, and "can't we maybe still keep the government kind of functional if we have some tax revenue?" The answer appears to be no. Here's an article that goes into detail: washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/14/if-we-hit-the-debt-ceiling-can-obama-choose-which-bills-to-pay/?wprss=rss_ezra-klein&wpisrc=nl_wonk

    Short version: the Treasury makes 80 MILLION seperate payments a month. Trying to sort through all that and prioritize would almost certainly be unworkable. Bond payments would probably be prioritized, and after that it'd be a clusterfuck.

    And as long as we honor our bonds, noone will care what the rating agencies say.

    From earlier in the thread:

    Damaging our credit is a funny thing. The rating agencies rate US treasuries, but the ratings are not that meaningful, because everyone is so familiar with the US. There was a lot of wailing and rending of clothing back when we were downgraded, because people thought that would result in default under a lot of credit agreements, but those people clearly don't work on them, because ratings never apply to US Treasuries. You might see a provision that requires that money be invested in US Treasuries or AAA rated bonds, but you never see the AAA qualifier applied to US treasury debt, because it is just assumed to be riskless.
    If we continue to pay our debt service but stop providing services to out citizens, there will be a lot of repercussions, and we may even see our treasuries be downgraded in response, but if anything, such dedication to making the payments would help our credibility with lenders, not hurt us in real terms.

  • schussschuss Registered User regular
    Yes, trust the same ratings agencies that turned a blind eye to the faux-AAA tranche manipulation of MBS stuff.

  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    It is kinda hard to not laugh in their faces after that. They're like my incarnated example of market failure.

  • Captain CarrotCaptain Carrot Alexandria, VARegistered User regular
    Fox is now calling it the spending limit. facepalm.jpg

    spacekungfuman
  • ChanusChanus Ribbit! Registered User regular
    I mean, yes, the rating agencies are absolute fucking jokes.

    Except to the people whose reactions to them matter. People who can orchestrate the downfall of humanity when they panic.

    **Winner Softest and Most Comfy Hugs Award Summer 2018**

    Blueberrywerewlf on the Sony Anime Games Box | BluberryWerewlf on the BroBone
  • DisrupterDisrupter Registered User regular
    Spending Limit? Thats dishonest on so many levels. That would be like calling it a tax threshold, implying its the limit in which we can lower taxes to. And we have gone under our tax threshold!

    616610-1.png
  • nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Defaulting on one creditor is enough to shake your confidence in all of them. If you've got 20 credit cards and decide to only pay off 19 of them your overall credit score will still suffer(and those other 19 will probably raise your rates)

    Yes, but in this case it's more like you owe money on 5 credit cards, need to pay the bills on 5 contractors who already did work for you, but you also have 5 contractors who are doing new work, and you promised to pay for your 5 kids to go to school.

    All the expenditure is real and critical, but only 50% represents money already spent, the rest is going concerns which can (disasterously, but not illegally) be stopped.

    Contracted work is legally binding. We might be able to get away with not paying them for a bit but then we'll have 500 million court cases of the government getting sued for a kazillion dollars

  • ZephiranZephiran Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    I mean, yes, the rating agencies are absolute fucking jokes.

    Except to the people whose reactions to them matter. People who can orchestrate the downfall of humanity when they panic.

    I think this is the most important thing to point out about rating agencies in general - yes, a lot of people can see that these agencies have got copious amounts of shit on their faces already, but they still wield considerable amounts of power since a sudden downgrade, no matter how well justified, can give the market players massive bitchfits. The ratings, by themselves, don't really mean anything, what's important is that their ratings of the US still look like they're A-okay.

    Alright and in this next scene all the animals have AIDS.

    I got a little excited when I saw your ship.
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Defaulting on one creditor is enough to shake your confidence in all of them. If you've got 20 credit cards and decide to only pay off 19 of them your overall credit score will still suffer(and those other 19 will probably raise your rates)

    Yes, but in this case it's more like you owe money on 5 credit cards, need to pay the bills on 5 contractors who already did work for you, but you also have 5 contractors who are doing new work, and you promised to pay for your 5 kids to go to school.

    All the expenditure is real and critical, but only 50% represents money already spent, the rest is going concerns which can (disasterously, but not illegally) be stopped.

    Contracted work is legally binding. We might be able to get away with not paying them for a bit but then we'll have 500 million court cases of the government getting sued for a kazillion dollars

    I think if the government just stopped doing all new work it could 'get by'. Not in a useful way, but in a way equivalent to a man starving under a bridge while he pays money to debt collectors. Past contracts would have to be paid, but you can cancel all future work and cease all current work.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • ChanusChanus Ribbit! Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Defaulting on one creditor is enough to shake your confidence in all of them. If you've got 20 credit cards and decide to only pay off 19 of them your overall credit score will still suffer(and those other 19 will probably raise your rates)

    Yes, but in this case it's more like you owe money on 5 credit cards, need to pay the bills on 5 contractors who already did work for you, but you also have 5 contractors who are doing new work, and you promised to pay for your 5 kids to go to school.

    All the expenditure is real and critical, but only 50% represents money already spent, the rest is going concerns which can (disasterously, but not illegally) be stopped.

    Contracted work is legally binding. We might be able to get away with not paying them for a bit but then we'll have 500 million court cases of the government getting sued for a kazillion dollars

    I think if the government just stopped doing all new work it could 'get by'. Not in a useful way, but in a way equivalent to a man starving under a bridge while he pays money to debt collectors. Past contracts would have to be paid, but you can cancel all future work and cease all current work.

    Yeah, all we have to do is lay off two and a half million people in order to make a point about spending.

    **Winner Softest and Most Comfy Hugs Award Summer 2018**

    Blueberrywerewlf on the Sony Anime Games Box | BluberryWerewlf on the BroBone
  • Captain MarcusCaptain Marcus now arrives the hour of actionRegistered User regular
    The American Conservative had a good article on why Obama shouldn't use the sweet-ass Ron Paul platinum coin.
    So what does the “platinum option” achieve? Assuming it’s legal (I doubt it), it lets the Republican Congress entirely off the hook, and therefore encourages their worst instincts.

    V1m
  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    Americans for Prosperity ("the Koch Brothers") are urging Republicans to show restraint on the debt ceiling fight, reports the FT.
    He [Tim Phillips, President of AFP] warned that a prolonged fight over the $16.4tn debt ceiling could hasten a “grand bargain” between President Barack Obama and John Boehner, the Republican speaker of the house. [..] AFP, among other conservative groups that supported Republican members of Congress in the 2012 election, is staunchly opposed to any such compromise because it would raise taxes as well as cut spending.

    Interesting. I expected some cracks to appear in the Republican party. I did not expect one of the more extreme groups to be against staging a fight on the debt ceiling.

  • ChanusChanus Ribbit! Registered User regular
    enc0re wrote: »
    Americans for Prosperity ("the Koch Brothers") are urging Republicans to show restraint on the debt ceiling fight, reports the FT.
    He [Tim Phillips, President of AFP] warned that a prolonged fight over the $16.4tn debt ceiling could hasten a “grand bargain” between President Barack Obama and John Boehner, the Republican speaker of the house. [..] AFP, among other conservative groups that supported Republican members of Congress in the 2012 election, is staunchly opposed to any such compromise because it would raise taxes as well as cut spending.

    Interesting. I expected some cracks to appear in the Republican party. I did not expect one of the more extreme groups to be against staging a fight on the debt ceiling.

    Self-preservation is a funny thing.

    The brazillionaires who fund Republican initiatives aren't idiots, they just don't have souls.

    **Winner Softest and Most Comfy Hugs Award Summer 2018**

    Blueberrywerewlf on the Sony Anime Games Box | BluberryWerewlf on the BroBone
    TheCanMan
  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    edited January 2013
    To be fair, some of them are idiots

    I mean if you need a living breathing example of wealth not necessarily being tied to intelligence, you need look no further than a top donors list for the GOP's super pacs

    override367 on
    ChanusHacksawGennenalyse Rueben
  • ronyaronya Arrrrrf. the ivory tower's basementRegistered User regular
    edited January 2013
    enc0re wrote: »
    Americans for Prosperity ("the Koch Brothers") are urging Republicans to show restraint on the debt ceiling fight, reports the FT.
    He [Tim Phillips, President of AFP] warned that a prolonged fight over the $16.4tn debt ceiling could hasten a “grand bargain” between President Barack Obama and John Boehner, the Republican speaker of the house. [..] AFP, among other conservative groups that supported Republican members of Congress in the 2012 election, is staunchly opposed to any such compromise because it would raise taxes as well as cut spending.

    Interesting. I expected some cracks to appear in the Republican party. I did not expect one of the more extreme groups to be against staging a fight on the debt ceiling.

    It's basically
    V1m wrote: »
    I suspect that the specific areas of government that Heritage wants to be shut down are rather predictable, and they'd be quick to complain if certain other areas got shut down instead.

    Now that "so shut down the government" is actually on the horizon, suddenly it isn't such a nice rhetorical hammer.

    ronya on
    aRkpc.gif
    V1m
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Fox is now calling it the spending limit. facepalm.jpg

    Or, as someone at Kos put: Frank Luntz's focus groups came in.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
    ronyashryke
  • spacekungfumanspacekungfuman Poor and minority-filled Registered User, __BANNED USERS regular
    It is kinda hard to not laugh in their faces after that. They're like my incarnated example of market failure.

    You want to know something scary? Those same collateralized debt obligations are hitting the market again in a big way. Some are even getting rated again.

  • RozRoz Boss of InternetRegistered User regular
    The most hilarious outcome would be a grand bargain, wherein they agree to military budget cuts and even more tax increases on high incomes. We're not going to get it, but I'd laugh hysterically.

  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    It is kinda hard to not laugh in their faces after that. They're like my incarnated example of market failure.

    You want to know something scary? Those same collateralized debt obligations are hitting the market again in a big way. Some are even getting rated again.

    .......................

    .......................

    What the fuck?

  • AManFromEarthAManFromEarth Let's get to twerk! The King in the SwampRegistered User regular
    It is kinda hard to not laugh in their faces after that. They're like my incarnated example of market failure.

    You want to know something scary? Those same collateralized debt obligations are hitting the market again in a big way. Some are even getting rated again.

    .......................

    .......................

    What the fuck?

    Job Creators!

    Lh96QHG.png
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