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[Video Game Industry Thread] Nobody is Buying Anything.

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    plufimplufim Dr Registered User regular
    edited April 2013
    Nintendo "not competing" is certainly wrong, because they absolutely do, but it is also amusing how that argument came from the other side of the fence 5 years ago - "it doesn't matter that the wii is out-selling the PS3 and Xbox360 combined, it doesn't compete with them!"

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    SichoSicho Wellenstein, Luxembourg, EuropeRegistered User regular
    edited April 2013
    Turkey wrote: »
    With the current Wii U trends, 10% is incredibly optimistic.

    well besides the fact that I said "if only half of those 10% would actually buy one...":
    the current trends don't take fans of a specific franchise in account since the specific franchise is not available on the platform yet.

    If you don't think that of all the Mario Kart Fans out there, not at least 10% would consider buying new hardware to play a new Mario Kart game, then you are very pessimistic. I say a lot of them would buy new hardware for a new Mario Kart, no matter if it's a 3DS, a Wii U or some cellphone.

    When you have a game that sold over 30 Mio. units, you are bound to have a large number of hardcore fans that are eagerly awaiting a sequel. Granted, having a lot of sales does not mean that everybody who bought the game loved it (Diablo 3 is a good example IMO) but still, we are talking about THIRTY MILLIONS! That's huge! In my opinion, when you sold 30 millions (actually, 32 millions) units of a game, you won't have any problems selling 2 or 3 million units with a sequel.
    Especially since a Wii U Mario Kart Bundle (maybe even with a price cut) will come sooner or later.

    That's why it's called a system seller. And Mario Kart definitely is a system seller. More so than a 3D Mario or a new Zelda game. The Zelda games were actually never really "huge" sellers to begin with. Actually, is there any Zelda game that surpassed 10 million units?

    Sicho on
    "Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit, but Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad."
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    NocrenNocren Lt Futz, Back in Action North CarolinaRegistered User regular
    Up next on the EA chopping block, skate.real and skate.graphics for skate 3.

    Locking out 3 achievements (which are currently behind a $10 paywall anyway since the "free upgrade with new purchase" codes are now expired).

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    ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    If the Wii U was comparable to the other next gen systems coming out, I'd have bought one already.

    If it had launched with a Metroid or Zelda game that pushed the console to its limits and didn't use Motion Controls I'd have bought one already.

    But it's not, and it didn't, so no sale until Bayonetta 2 for me.

    They might get me with Wind Waker HD if they put more content in the game.

    But releasing stuff that I can buy on consoles that I've had for years is not going to entice me.

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    SwashbucklerXXSwashbucklerXX Swashbucklin' Canuck Registered User regular
    edited April 2013
    Wind Waker HD isn't meant to be a system seller. It's basically a fun side project that Nintendo took on after a bunch of devs got excited while making system demo software. It happens to be filling an early-fall release hole, but I think that's more about how long it's taking Nintendo's teams to make its new HD games.

    According to the press release Nintendo put out this week, we'll probably be hearing about the next Mario Kart, Super Mario (hopefully a 3D title and not another NSMB), and Smash Bros. at (or around) E3. Hopefully at least two of those will be out for the holidays, because that's Nintendo's best opportunity to start turning the Wii U sales ship back around.

    SwashbucklerXX on
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    BlindPsychicBlindPsychic Registered User regular
    Nocren wrote: »
    Up next on the EA chopping block, skate.real and skate.graphics for skate 3.

    Locking out 3 achievements (which are currently behind a $10 paywall anyway since the "free upgrade with new purchase" codes are now expired).

    Haha, how did they run out of codes? Now if you buy a new copy you have to hope it has codes for project 20 dollars inside?

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    MaddocMaddoc I'm Bobbin Threadbare, are you my mother? Registered User regular
    Nocren wrote: »
    Up next on the EA chopping block, skate.real and skate.graphics for skate 3.

    Locking out 3 achievements (which are currently behind a $10 paywall anyway since the "free upgrade with new purchase" codes are now expired).

    Haha, how did they run out of codes? Now if you buy a new copy you have to hope it has codes for project 20 dollars inside?

    The codes expired, they didn't run out. I'm not actually sure why those codes expire, as opposed to simply having a disclaimer that the service may close down in the future or whatever.

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    ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    I never said or implied that WWHD was supposed to be a system seller.

    I was implying that the system came out with essentially zero games and I guess assumed they'd be fine with just being more open to M rated ports.

    Also for people expecting to, or considering buying a new console in the next year or two launching a system that is equivalent to the thing they've had for years that is about to be outdated doesn't inspire confidence in it as a platform.

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    AthenorAthenor Battle Hardened Optimist The Skies of HiigaraRegistered User regular
    Guys, there's absolutely 0 to gain from re-hashing the console generations, their power, and so on.

    We all have our horses in the race, not the least of which because shit be expensive, yo. But at the end of the day, Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo are not going anywhere as entities. You pick your poison with regards to what the others bring to the table, and right now we know 10% of what Sony's bringing and 0% of what Microsoft's bringing, so people are making informed decisions.

    We shall see where things stand in 2 years to get a better sense of the next generation. For now, don't fall into the same old traps I've seen play out the previous 2 generational shifts.

    He/Him | "A boat is always safest in the harbor, but that’s not why we build boats." | "If you run, you gain one. If you move forward, you gain two." - Suletta Mercury, G-Witch
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    CuvisTheConquerorCuvisTheConqueror They always say "yee haw" but they never ask "haw yee?" Registered User regular
    edited April 2013
    muninn wrote: »
    Consumers always flocked to high powered systems.

    No they don't. Historically the most powerful system is rarely the sales leader.

    That. The NES was less powerful than the SMS, the SNES and Genesis were approximately equal but out-powered by the Neo-Geo (and later the 3DO and Jaguar), the PS1 was less powerful than the N64 (but about the same power level as the Saturn, though both used their power in different ways -- the Saturn was better at 2D, the PS1 at 3D), the PS2 was the least powerful system of its generation, and then there's the Wii. Hell, even going back to the pre-Crash days, the Atari 2600 was still the most popular system even as much more powerful systems like the Intellivision and Colecovision came out.

    CuvisTheConqueror on
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    emnmnmeemnmnme Registered User regular
    The PS2 was more powerful than the Dreamcast.

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    Death of RatsDeath of Rats Registered User regular
    edited April 2013
    muninn wrote: »
    Consumers always flocked to high powered systems.

    No they don't. Historically the most powerful system is rarely the sales leader.

    That. The NES was less powerful than the SMS, the SNES and Genesis were approximately equal but out-powered by the Neo-Geo (and later the 3DO and Jaguar), the PS1 was less powerful than the N64 (but about the same power level as the Saturn, though both used their power in different ways -- the Saturn was better at 2D, the PS1 at 3D), the PS2 was the least powerful system of its generation, and then there's the Wii. Hell, even going back to the pre-Crash days, the Atari 2600 was still the most popular system even as much more powerful systems like the Intellivision and Colecovision came out.

    So what you're saying is the weaker console between the PS4 and 720 will be the market leader. Cool.

    Because unless something drastic changes it's not going to be the Dreamcast Wii U.

    In other words, tradition doesn't trump reality or common sense.

    Death of Rats on
    No I don't.
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    UncleSporkyUncleSporky Registered User regular
    edited April 2013
    Nobody's making that argument Rats, they're just refuting muninn.

    There's a lot more to it than power anyway. It probably has more to do with whatever's cheaper (which of course correlates with power).

    UncleSporky on
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    MaddocMaddoc I'm Bobbin Threadbare, are you my mother? Registered User regular
    Basing the argument purely on system power without any other factors involved like price, third party involvement, launch factors (Saturn is available today!), or say, your system showing up on Opera and becoming an overnight hit with literally everybody in the country even people who basically didn't even know what a video game was.

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    Death of RatsDeath of Rats Registered User regular
    I think there's a point to Muninn's post, just not the one he's trying to make. People always do end up flocking to next gen consoles. Not a whole lot of people end up never moving on from console generation x to console generation y.

    The fact that people haven't been flocking to the Wii U tells me that the Wii U is going to have a hard time getting people who got a PS3 or 360, and is having a hard time getting the fickle casual market to come from the Wii. So pretty much the only people coming over are die hard Nintendo fans.

    Is everyone else waiting for the other two consoles to have an info dump before the Wii U sales start soaring? I kinda doubt it. It seems like it missed the boat by not having that fickle casual market this time.

    No I don't.
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    eelektrikeelektrik Southern CaliforniaRegistered User regular
    Wind Waker HD isn't meant to be a system seller. It's basically a fun side project that Nintendo took on after a bunch of devs got excited while making system demo software. It happens to be filling an early-fall release hole, but I think that's more about how long it's taking Nintendo's teams to make its new HD games.

    According to the press release Nintendo put out this week, we'll probably be hearing about the next Mario Kart, Super Mario (hopefully a 3D title and not another NSMB), and Smash Bros. at (or around) E3. Hopefully at least two of those will be out for the holidays, because that's Nintendo's best opportunity to start turning the Wii U sales ship back around.

    I think Wind Waker will do pretty well, the original game came out 11 years ago and the younger/newer gamers that started with the huge selling Wii probably won't have played it, in addition to those of us that loved the game will buy it to play it again but shinier/new content. But I agree that it probably won't be a system seller on its own. Of the games they already said they will be showing at E3, I don't expect Smash Bros. to come out this year but I have a feeling Mario Kart will end up a holiday title. The new 3D Mario could go either way, though they did say it will be playable at E3 so thats a good sign of hopefully releasing this year or early next year.

    I still think the Wii U is going to surprise people and sell really well this holiday season, assuming there are other releases besides Wind Waker HD. I am not convinced the PS4 and Next XBox are going to do as well as people think. There were complaints about price with the Wii U already at 300/350, but do people really think Microsoft or Sony are going to sell their consoles for less? People seem to have short memories and forget that the 360 launched at 300/400 and the PS3 was 500/600, so other than the rumors of Microsoft offering a cheap console with subscription, Nintendo is almost guaranteed to have the cheaper option of new consoles as well as more games available being a year old as opposed to launch lineup only. Microsoft and Sony would need to have a hell of an exclusive to compete, something Nintendo didn't have last year but it also didn't launch against any brand new competition.

    (She/Her)
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    Death of RatsDeath of Rats Registered User regular
    eelektrik wrote: »
    I still think the Wii U is going to surprise people and sell really well this holiday season, assuming there are other releases besides Wind Waker HD. I am not convinced the PS4 and Next XBox are going to do as well as people think. There were complaints about price with the Wii U already at 300/350, but do people really think Microsoft or Sony are going to sell their consoles for less? People seem to have short memories and forget that the 360 launched at 300/400 and the PS3 was 500/600, so other than the rumors of Microsoft offering a cheap console with subscription, Nintendo is almost guaranteed to have the cheaper option of new consoles as well as more games available being a year old as opposed to launch lineup only. Microsoft and Sony would need to have a hell of an exclusive to compete, something Nintendo didn't have last year but it also didn't launch against any brand new competition.

    There were complaints because Nintendo is pushing a console that for all intents and purposes is a very small step in power over the 360 and PS3. It'd be like if the Gamecube launched for $50-150 cheaper than the PS2, but was only slightly more powerful than the PS1.

    The thing people constantly look past is that the Wii tapped into the furby/beany baby/tickle me elmo/fad crowd. They've since moved on to tablets and smartphones.

    As far as what games are coming out for the PS4/720, we already know several publishers have gone pretty dark in the last year. I think we're going to be surprised by how many games are announced for the more powerful consoles at E3. Developers have been chomping at the bits to get new hardware. The idea that they've been sitting on their hands for the past year and a half is as silly as the idea that those games are also going to be coming out on the Wii U.

    No I don't.
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    UncleSporkyUncleSporky Registered User regular
    edited April 2013
    The thing people constantly look past is that the Wii tapped into the furby/beany baby/tickle me elmo/fad crowd. They've since moved on to tablets and smartphones.

    Why is this narrative still being trotted out? Fads do not last the length of a console generation. The Wii sold well for years.

    Similarly, you'd expect these people to be dropping their "fad" tablets and smartphones soon, as quickly as they dropped Elmo.

    UncleSporky on
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    HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    The narrative is brought about because people need some way to detract from Nintendo, only they do so by attacking the audience.

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    Drunk_caterpillarDrunk_caterpillar Registered User regular
    I don't understand why everyone thinks that the price of the WiiU should only be dictated by the hardware in the main console. It comes with a tablet guys; that's going to bring costs up even though the hardware isn't terrifically powerful.

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    The WolfmanThe Wolfman Registered User regular
    It would be kinda funny if history turned out that Nintendo made the absolute right call in terms of power, and the 720/PS4 crack under their own weight because game development costs continue to escalate and become unsustainable.

    "The sausage of Green Earth explodes with flavor like the cannon of culinary delight."
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    eelektrikeelektrik Southern CaliforniaRegistered User regular
    edited April 2013
    I don't understand why everyone thinks that the price of the WiiU should only be dictated by the hardware in the main console. It comes with a tablet guys; that's going to bring costs up even though the hardware isn't terrifically powerful.

    Speaking of that, I am curious how much they will sell the tablet controllers for when games start coming out that support two of them in multiplayer.

    Also how many people will accidentally buy one thinking its a system itself.

    eelektrik on
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    Death of RatsDeath of Rats Registered User regular
    The thing people constantly look past is that the Wii tapped into the furby/beany baby/tickle me elmo/fad crowd. They've since moved on to tablets and smartphones.

    Why is this narrative still being trotted out? Fads do not last the length of a console generation. The Wii sold well for years.

    Similarly, you'd expect these people to be dropping their "fad" tablets and smartphones soon, as quickly as they dropped Elmo.

    Well then, where are all the blue ocean buyers for the Wii U? This giant, apparently permanent market just all, what, died since the Wii came out?

    I have nothing against this audience, and I think it's great to reach out to them, hoping to turn them from blue ocean to a lifelong gamer. However, assuming that the Wii's success didn't depend on this market goes against what Nintendo was saying at the time.

    Remember the "Sometimes, Maybe, Always, Never" folks? They attracted a lot of the "Maybe and Sometimes" folks with the Wii. Those people may not be coming back. Similarly with the market for the Kinect. People who bought a 360 for the Kinect may be leaving the market. Which is the danger of reaching out to that market. It's not sustainable. There is no trapping lightning in a bottle.

    No I don't.
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    SichoSicho Wellenstein, Luxembourg, EuropeRegistered User regular
    As far as what games are coming out for the PS4/720, we already know several publishers have gone pretty dark in the last year.

    because they are working on Wii U titles ;);)
    no, of course many publishers are working on next-gen titles for PS4 and Xbox, that's for sure. And they will both launch with more than just 1 or 2 games ... what concerns me though is my fear that it'll just be the same games we play now ... like the Killzone Sony showed off. Same thing, different console. We'll see Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, Forza, Gears of War, God of War etc. ... that's a given. But what else?

    Sony showed some new stuff on their Press Conference but I'm concerned that Microsoft will only show the same games than before, only "better".

    Granted, Nintendo didn't bring something new with NSMBU. But they will bring Pikmin 3 and the last Pikmin was a decade ago! They worked with TT Games on LEGO City and that's a brand new series right there! They will publish Platinum's Wonderful 101, which is also a new IP. Ubisoft's Zombi U was also an good change from all the standard FPS food we're served.
    So I personally consider the lineup of the Wii U "fresher" than the PS3 or Xbox lineup ... and that's why I see the Wii U as a good addition to the current and future consoles ... because on Sony and Microsoft consoles, it sometimes hard to find wacky, colorful games with blue skies and no violence. And sometimes, is just good to play a playful, lighthearted game like Pikmin and not a serious one like CoD. So I think Wii U and the tohers complement each other very well ... Nintendo just has to find a way to bring that message to the customers. As I said: They should not decide between a Wii U and a PS4/Xbox but they should need to decide if they want a PS4 or a Xbox next to their Wii U. If Nintendo could get customers to grasp this concept, they'll "win".

    "Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit, but Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad."
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    Death of RatsDeath of Rats Registered User regular
    I don't understand why everyone thinks that the price of the WiiU should only be dictated by the hardware in the main console. It comes with a tablet guys; that's going to bring costs up even though the hardware isn't terrifically powerful.

    For the same reason people are saying the 720 coming with the Kinect is a bad idea. It either inflates the price, or limits other aspects of the console to keep the price down.

    Some people don't think the tradeoff is going to work out well for Nintendo. Any argument involving the price vs the power of the Wii U is at its base talking about the trade off Nintendo is banking on.

    No I don't.
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    shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    The thing people constantly look past is that the Wii tapped into the furby/beany baby/tickle me elmo/fad crowd. They've since moved on to tablets and smartphones.

    Why is this narrative still being trotted out? Fads do not last the length of a console generation. The Wii sold well for years.

    Similarly, you'd expect these people to be dropping their "fad" tablets and smartphones soon, as quickly as they dropped Elmo.

    I'd say it's a "fad" of sorts, but not in the way Elmo was. That specific console interface at that specific price-point is what sold the Wii so damn much. It was cheap and it was interesting and unique and that's what got the consumers frothing over it.

    I don't see the WiiU replicating that. Or, really, the 720/PS4. The latter two are likely to sell on the same basis their predecessors sold on, which turned out not bad for them.

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    CokomonCokomon Our butts are worth fighting for! Registered User regular
    Is LEGO City a brand new series? I was under the impression it was like the other LEGO Franchise games, without the franchise part. Even the open world stuff was already in LEGO Batman 2 and, I think, Lord of the Rings.

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    Death of RatsDeath of Rats Registered User regular
    Also, I apologise for not using the technical term for what I consider the "fad" crowd. I wasn't trying to insult that market, simply distinguish it from the more stable gaming marketplace at large.

    If I'm reading things correctly, the term for that market is the "Blue Ocean Market".

    No I don't.
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    eelektrikeelektrik Southern CaliforniaRegistered User regular
    I am kind of wondering what Microsoft is going to bring to the table for a launch lineup as far as first/second party exclusives. We just had new Halo and Gears of War titles in the last 6 months, so somehow I doubt they will have another ready for launch unless Epic has been working on an actual Gears of War 4 with Unreal Engine 4 since wasn't Judgement made primarily by People Can Fly? Actually if Epic is working on a launch title with UE4 for the new Xbox I would hope its new IP. Forza seems like a safe bet, unless they get a new developer to continue their tradition of launching with Project Gotham Racing. I guess Fable is another possibility but will that sell systems much given the decline in quality in that franchise?

    (She/Her)
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    Njashi9Njashi9 Registered User regular
    It would be kinda funny if history turned out that Nintendo made the absolute right call in terms of power, and the 720/PS4 crack under their own weight because game development costs continue to escalate and become unsustainable.

    How could Nintendo come out as a winner through that situation? If third party developers are forced to cut back on those big budget titles and focus on cheaper products won't they just keep doing that on the 720/PS4?

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    eelektrikeelektrik Southern CaliforniaRegistered User regular
    Njashi9 wrote: »
    It would be kinda funny if history turned out that Nintendo made the absolute right call in terms of power, and the 720/PS4 crack under their own weight because game development costs continue to escalate and become unsustainable.

    How could Nintendo come out as a winner through that situation? If third party developers are forced to cut back on those big budget titles and focus on cheaper products won't they just keep doing that on the 720/PS4?

    If developers start releasing games that don't use the extra hardware power in any way, people are going to start wondering what the point of releasing new hardware was when the games could have been made on the 360/PS3 that more people already own. You don't think that will have an effect on sales? Whereas the Wii U, is clearly better graphically than the Wii but the hardware can be used for its potential at a lower cost or less development time than Microsoft or Sony's new systems.

    (She/Her)
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    Njashi9Njashi9 Registered User regular
    eelektrik wrote: »
    Njashi9 wrote: »
    It would be kinda funny if history turned out that Nintendo made the absolute right call in terms of power, and the 720/PS4 crack under their own weight because game development costs continue to escalate and become unsustainable.

    How could Nintendo come out as a winner through that situation? If third party developers are forced to cut back on those big budget titles and focus on cheaper products won't they just keep doing that on the 720/PS4?

    If developers start releasing games that don't use the extra hardware power in any way, people are going to start wondering what the point of releasing new hardware was when the games could have been made on the 360/PS3 that more people already own. You don't think that will have an effect on sales? Whereas the Wii U, is clearly better graphically than the Wii but the hardware can be used for its potential at a lower cost or less development time than Microsoft or Sony's new systems.

    It's pretty safe to assume that third party developers are going to slowly move on to the 720/PS4 when the systems are out while keep developing games for the 360/PS3. So then they will either phase out 360/PS3 game production like every generation that has come before or 720/PS4 game sales will crash and burn and developers will keep developing games that are compatible 360/PS3/(WiiU). Even if the second scenory happens it's not like people will buy WiiU when they are satisfied with their current consoles (360/PS3).

    In short i'm not convinced that the WiiU is going to enjoy any benefits of the (possible) failure of the 720/PS4.

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    Xenogears of BoreXenogears of Bore Registered User regular
    This might be the gen where no one moves on. All the announced 2014+ games so far also have PS360 versions.

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    reVersereVerse Attack and Dethrone God Registered User regular
    This might be the gen where no one moves on. All the announced 2014+ games so far also have PS360 versions.

    That's the way it always is.

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    Xenogears of BoreXenogears of Bore Registered User regular
    Not to this degree. Usually franchise games/sequels get this treatment but now we're getting announcement after announcement that will be 2014 or later and have a PS360 release. Sure it should be expected for titles coming out holiday 2013, but not the year after for stuff outside of Madden and Fifa and licensed junk.

    3DS CODE: 3093-7068-3576
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    Dac VinDac Vin S-s-screw you! I only listen to DOUBLE MUSIC! Registered User regular
    Being curious: A bunch of 2014+ games have a PS360 version to go along with the PS4/Durango ones.

    Of these, how many have a Wii U version?

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    Xenogears of BoreXenogears of Bore Registered User regular
    Right now? Watchdogs.

    3DS CODE: 3093-7068-3576
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    HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    I'm not putting much value in future announcements / plans. Not when they're that far in advanced. Plans are fragile things and will either be abandoned or changed dramatically.

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    eelektrikeelektrik Southern CaliforniaRegistered User regular
    Dac Vin wrote: »
    Being curious: A bunch of 2014+ games have a PS360 version to go along with the PS4/Durango ones.

    Of these, how many have a Wii U version?

    How many 2014 games do we currently know of? We'll certainly know more of them after E3, so I would hold off judgement until later in the year.

    (She/Her)
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    cloudeaglecloudeagle Registered User regular
    edited April 2013
    reVerse wrote: »
    Dhalphir wrote: »
    i dont really know what nintendo could have done differently with the wii U.

    Wii HD with further improved motion controls.

    The Wii HD costs $600, fails.
    and/or

    Drop the stupid tablet.

    Consumer see zero reason to upgrade to the Wii U, fails.
    and/or

    Release it five years earlier.

    The Super Wii costs $800, fails.
    or

    Release it one year later with significantly beefier stats.

    The Wii HD costs $500 and gets crushed by the competition, fails.

    Hindsight is 20/20 and all, but the Wii U as it stood out wasn't a horrible idea. Nintendo had to at least try to replicate the thunderbolt that was motion controls without relying on it again, and they figured the tablet might do it. Tablets being violently popular and all. Now sure, you could argue they should have tried some other kind of gimmick... but what the hell would it be? None of us would have guessed how popular the Wii would have been. By the same token it wasn't clear at all how the Wii U tablet would have done before hand... it just kinda went the opposite direction of the Wiimote.

    Plus the fact that the various publishers are falling over themselves to cancel their current-gen ports indicates power isn't the big problem with them.

    cloudeagle on
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