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[Video Game Industry Thread] Nobody is Buying Anything.



  • BluefistBluefist Registered User regular
    edited April 2013
    plufim wrote: »
    plufim wrote: »
    Also, I think 40 million is lowballing the casuals - previous generation a lot of people bought PS2 as a cheap DVD and singstar machine. And right now 360 had a few months of being a kinect machine.

    The "hardcore" market is lower than the 200 million. By how much, who knows? I could see it being as low as 150 million, once you take out those who own multiple systems.

    I actually agree on this point. The number of individual consumers is probably a lot less that we'd assume from the numbers. I do wonder with the lack of third party exclusives this generation, if the cross over ratio between PS3 and 360 owners is a lot less than in previous generations. I know last gen I owned all 3 consoles at one point or another. This gen I've been perfectly fine with just a 360 (and a Wii a while). There's no real way to suss out these numbers, but it is interesting to think about how much the landscape has changed over the last 7-8 years.

    I'd love to see someone who really knows their stuff crunch the numbers.

    Like for instance, how many HD gamers are out there? Once you take out broken systems and those who own both, does it drop from 140M to as low as 100M? To go back to Tomb Raider (because it's such an insane example), that then puts it at 5% of the audience to buy in. One in twenty.

    If you really want to have your mind blown, realize that the number sold is less than the number of players for a particular game because of the used market. With those numbers, we may find that the percentage of the market playing the game may be anywhere from 5%-100%. It very well could be that the vast majority of players for a game comes from the used market.

    Then think about the fact that every time that game changes hands, there's a very good chance whoever bought it may purchase DLC. So the revenue for a single copy of a game could look like this:

    $60 Game is purchased
    $20 Season pass is purchased
    - game is sold to gamestop and purchased
    $10 DLC is purchased
    -game is sold to gamestop and purchased
    $10 Ten dollar initiative is purchased
    $20 Season Pass is purchased
    -game is put on a shelf to never be purchased again

    Total extra revenue: $60

    It all depends on if the DLC is sold and when it finds someone who doesn't sell their games.

    That assumes people actually readily buy dlc, outside of COD and the like that may not be the case. But, the above scenario does show how the second hand market can be monetised quite well in certain cases.

    Oddly enough, in the above scenario my diseased brain wonders when some pr boffin will turn on the collector who keeps their games and morally "attacks" them like those who buy used games are being now since they are stopping the revenue stream. Stranger things have happened.

    Bluefist on
    STEAM & PSN: Bluefist56
  • BlendtecBlendtec Registered User regular
    Shadowfire wrote: »
    The "average" consumer buying the Wii were people like my parents and my in-laws who played it a couple hours a week because they absolutely loved Wii Sports. These same people have never considered buying a 360 or PS3. Studies like this are comparing two groups of people who cannot be compared.
    The Wii U doesn't have the novelty the Wii had. Plain and simple.

    I still think WiiU sales still just boils down to stuff like this. It'll never sell like the Wii did. Nintendo, die hard Nintendo fans and anyone else following the industry needs to accept that and stop trying to make the comparison between the 2.

  • edzeppedzepp Registered User regular
    Hey, I don't. I just enjoy it for what it is.

    But enough of that.

  • StericaSterica Yes Registered User, Moderator mod
    Gonna hoist the new thread up a bit early.

This discussion has been closed.