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[East Asia] - Korean zombies: Leaner. Faster. More lit.

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Posts

  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    cckerberos wrote: »
    Why would another massacre make independence more viable for Taiwan?

    It would permanently discredit One Country, Two Systems which is what the PRC has always held out as the the option for unification.

    No one is going to really recognize Taiwan on fear of retribution in the current system. There will be grumbling. Maybe a UN resolution or something. But nothing from the security council. And the status quo is maintained.

    Taiwan and reunification has had a low chance of happening for a long time anyway.

    03x29di.png
    CouscousJusticeforPlutoIncenjucarQuidFencingsaxshrykeRchanen
  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Total Goober Registered User regular
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    cckerberos wrote: »
    Why would another massacre make independence more viable for Taiwan?

    It would permanently discredit One Country, Two Systems which is what the PRC has always held out as the the option for unification.

    No one is going to really recognize Taiwan on fear of retribution in the current system. There will be grumbling. Maybe a UN resolution or something. But nothing from the security council. And the status quo is maintained.

    Taiwan and reunification has had a low chance of happening for a long time anyway.

    True, but you could see Twiwans position change.

    Maybe the US will recognize Taiwan just to piss off China. Seems like the kind of stupid and shortsighted move that's all the rage now.

    RchanenGvzbgul
  • SynthesisSynthesis Honda Today! Registered User regular
    edited August 13
    Hmmm.



    This is the sort of thing that diminishes sympathy for the demonstrators in Taiwan. We have our own history with kidnappings and mistaken identity during protests (seeing how we have so many of them).

    Not that the people in Hong Kong care much what people in Taiwan think, they have far more immediate concerns. And likewise, the state of cross-strait relations is far beyond what happens in Hong Kong.

    The situation seems to be that the reporter from the Global Times (part of the state run People's Daily) was accused of being an undercover cop. Apparently GT is now saying he was rescued. Not exactly the best moment for the parties involved.

    Synthesis on
    Orca wrote: »
    Synthesis wrote:
    Isn't "Your sarcasm makes me wet," the highest compliment an Abh can pay a human?

    Only if said Abh is a member of the nobility.
  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Total Goober Registered User regular
    I mean sure cross straits relations are bigger than Hong Kong but I really don't see how anyone could sell unification with PRC to Taiwan now.

    Like who looks at Hong Kong and thinks "yes, I would like some of that"

  • SynthesisSynthesis Honda Today! Registered User regular
    I mean sure cross straits relations are bigger than Hong Kong but I really don't see how anyone could sell unification with PRC to Taiwan now.

    Like who looks at Hong Kong and thinks "yes, I would like some of that"

    People didn't really look that way back in 1999 either, to be honest. The pro-unification lobby has always used historic and cultural reasons for their arguments, and now economic ones (seeing how a million Taiwanese live and work in China), not "Look how great it's working for Hong Kong." I don't think it helped that if you had to pick a place that shared the culture of the Chinese in in the Republic of China, you'd pick somewhere like Fujian, not the enclave ruled by the British for a century.

    Orca wrote: »
    Synthesis wrote:
    Isn't "Your sarcasm makes me wet," the highest compliment an Abh can pay a human?

    Only if said Abh is a member of the nobility.
  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Total Goober Registered User regular
    edited August 13
    Do the people of Taiwan not care about democracy or freedom? Are they willing to give those up to be part of China proper?

    Edit: what I'm saying is that the idea of one China, two policies is dead. Hong Kong should make it clear that if Taiwan rejoins China, it will eventually have to live by the mainland's rules.

    JusticeforPluto on
  • QuidQuid I don't... what... hnnng Registered User regular
    edited August 13
    Do the people of Taiwan not care about democracy or freedom? Are they willing to give those up to be part of China proper?

    Edit: what I'm saying is that the idea of one China, two policies is dead. Hong Kong should make it clear that if Taiwan rejoins China, it will eventually have to live by the mainland's rules.

    Taiwan has a standing military, its own currency, and independent government. They don't consider themselves to be a part of China and their government reiterates this.

    How long that's actually maintained is anyone's guess, but probably for a good while. They wouldn't win a war with China on their own but it would most definitely be bloody even by themselves.

    This is why China has continued working on establishing other relationships with Taiwan like free trade and travel between the two. Whereas with Hong Kong and its general lack of physical might means they've just started rolling faces like they did with Tibet and Xinjiang.

    Quid on
  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Total Goober Registered User regular
    I understand that, but why wouldn't Taiwan make the official policy be "we're independent" now? What ever small chance there was at peaceful unification is gone.

  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    Taiwan official policy is we're independent. China's official policy is "no they aren't and if you say they are there will be conseqeunces"

    torchlight-sig-80.jpg
    kimeQuid
  • SynthesisSynthesis Honda Today! Registered User regular
    edited August 13
    Do the people of Taiwan not care about democracy or freedom? Are they willing to give those up to be part of China proper?

    I don't think I said that either, but let's put a pin in it. To start "democracy and freedom" only appeared in Taiwan well within my lifetime. As demonstrated how Taipei has become the City of a Thousand Protests, Taiwanese people care about (various aspects of) political freedom, but have almost remarkably low confidence in the government to keep said promises. What they have confidence in, though, is the ability to demonstrate and protest on a massive scale. Don't forget in Taipei, both parliament and the executive branch were occupied back in 2014, ultimately leading to the opposition securing a ruling majority--and now the ruling party is historically unpopular, to the point where the Tsai government may possibly be the first one-term presidency of the democratic era. No doubt that 2014 occupation could not have happened in China (without resulting in a bloodbath--or for that matter, in the United States).

    Emphasis on may. The events in Hong Kong actually have given her a substantial polling boost (or they did weeks ago, as the affect is starting to pepper out), though it is her reelection to lose. Neither Ma nor Chen were in nearly as vulnerable a position as incumbents.

    The pro-reunification portion of the population is shrinking as part of a trend in history that I've already mentioned. But importantly, if China was a "free and democratic state" tomorrow, somehow, more than half of the anti-reunification side of the argument wouldn't change their position. Probably more like three-fourths. It doesn't change that many Taiwanese would like to see, for example, fair elections in China, but the actual rise of a separate Taiwanese identity (heavily promoted by the Pan-Green side of the political system, but not only them) is increasingly framed around this idea that regardless of what happens in China, the Taiwanese majority are a distinct people. I'm pretty confident that percentage will continue increasing. A massive political revolution in China last decades would weigh on that, but speculation aside, that seems like a strong trend that will continue. The pro-reunification population has their own views on China's political future, running from extreme cynicism to a belief that it's their responsibility to enter into the Chinese political system and change it in turn. I wish I could say the pro-independence lobby believes firmly in "democracy and freedom", but that's not necessarily true either for everyone--the Chen years demonstrated that a portion of that base couldn't care more about abuses of the rule of law so long as their preferred leaders were in office.

    The large majority of the population belongs to neither: they want (a potentially unsustainable) status quo, even with the problems of being an unrecognizable state, both out of fears of war and fears for the cross-strait economy. The largest private employer in Taiwan is based primarily out of Chinese industries.

    As for what the Taiwanese "care about"--before democracy or freedom, they overwhelmingly care about their public welfare and their economic well-being first. The two have a complicated relationship. A million Taiwanese are working residents of China voluntarily, despite a rising percentage of the Taiwanese population (including those in other countries) rejected the distinction as being Chinese.

    Hong Kong really wasn't held by the majority of Taiwanese of what a retro-cession of Taiwan Province into China would be like (though it still served as an example of Beijing's ruling policy, because, well, it was happening in China). Taiwanese people have a far more convincing example (unfortunately for China): the last time when Taiwan was returned to China, after World War II.

    Synthesis on
    Orca wrote: »
    Synthesis wrote:
    Isn't "Your sarcasm makes me wet," the highest compliment an Abh can pay a human?

    Only if said Abh is a member of the nobility.
    JusticeforPlutoboogedybooKetBraRchanena5ehren
  • SynthesisSynthesis Honda Today! Registered User regular
    edited August 13
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Taiwan official policy is we're independent. China's official policy is "no they aren't and if you say they are there will be conseqeunces"

    As this is super off-topic, I will try and keep this short: Taiwan's policy is that the Republic of China is independent, by virtue of the Republic's unique legal system in the Judicial Yuan and National Police Agency, armed forces in the Defense Ministry, electoral and parliamentary processes in the Executive and Legislative Yuan, and diplomatic relations in the Foreign Ministry.

    Taiwan is de facto independent. So are Abkhazia, Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Palestine among others. All these states have their own functioning governments. They're also common for that last criteria: their diplomatic relations are incredibly limited. The reasons vary. In Taiwan's case, it's because of a series of inflexible, convoluted norms established at the end of World War II when the victorious (?) Republic of China actually came to Taiwan that basically said: there ought to be only one Republic of China and its claims are generally recognized including Taiwan (ignoring Mongolia, Tibet, Burma, etc.). The Allies--all of them, in the way a bunch of powerful countries that will soon be embroiled in a Cold War--basically agreed. And the republic's dictatorial leaders held them to that promise and then proceeded to lose the civil war that followed. So for 20 years after that, the hundreds of millions of people living in, well, China under the People's Republic lived in an unrecognized state, because there were two Chinese republics and only one was recognized. That changed, because it's not very sensible to pretend the world's most populous country is an temporary aberration (Bad China) and that inflexible Generalissimo and President-for-Life in Taipei will accept a Taiwanese state over his dead body, but has failed to actually retake the mainland (Good China). Like Highlander, there can only be one. The Allies won the war, and their (increasingly out-of-date) word is law. Of course, today, dissolving a 100-year-old rump state and declaring a new state, aside from upsetting an older portion of the population, would be a surefire way to trigger a military showdown (though this is not unique to China--when was the last time the declaration of a new country didn't cause a near-war? It's pretty rare). So Taiwan remains stuck in a strange political loophole of ours and the Allies creation, that it ironically did not particularly want in the first place (considering the decades of violence it took to cement the republic in Taiwan).

    That was me attempting to be concise. Remember what I said about the public overwhelmingly favoring the status-quo in all polling? This is the "even if it unsustainable" part. Impressively, while they will sometimes debate the political points of it to the point of vicious insults, Taiwanese people--even younger ones--are aware of the broad strokes of this situation (it did only happen 70 years ago), generally speaking. They can understand why the Republic of Taiwan cannot be declared, because the same political questions come up at least once a year and have for decades now. And unlike me, they have a good sense of how that would practically affect their daily lives, especially if they have family among the 1 million Taiwanese in China.

    Finally, there can really be no independent Republic of China. As absurd as the situation is now, it is directly contrary to the constitution, in a way that can't be ignored like how that document claims Mongolia, Tibet, and so forth. It would, effectively, be a Republic of Taiwan.

    Synthesis on
    Orca wrote: »
    Synthesis wrote:
    Isn't "Your sarcasm makes me wet," the highest compliment an Abh can pay a human?

    Only if said Abh is a member of the nobility.
    a5ehren
  • SmurphSmurph Registered User regular
    So Taiwan's existance is tolerated by China so long as it pretends to still be the Republic of China, because everybody knows it's not the 'real' China, but if it were to give up that status and just declare itself the Republic of Taiwan there would be big trouble? Because that's a step towards permanent independence and possibly diplomatic recognition, where as the People's Republic would let the ROC continue to exist and hope to win them over with economics and general good relations?

  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    edited August 13
    Taiwan's best hope is to maintain the status quo until the PRC collapses somehow. That is not something that will happen in the near term, more like in the 2050s-2100s when climate change is putting stress on the entire world. If Taiwan ends up more stable than the mainland, and the PRC falls into civil war (basically hoping that regional governments start looking out for themselves in a time of resource scarcity), it could be a player in next war to reunite China.

    Thats assuming a sort of hell world though, and that Taiwan can maintain stability through climate change while the mainland can't.

    Jephery on
    }
    "Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
  • ArtereisArtereis Registered User regular
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Prohass wrote: »
    yeah i just dont see hong kong ever settling into the fold of Beijings control. It has lived and breathed democracy, and with a young population and growing economic problems, its only going to get more unruly. While we cant really do anything directly to stop it, I think if China cracks down violently in Hong Kong the results could be unpredictable in a way the party is very unfamiliar with. Despite the feeling that the world can do nothing, it might be the people of hong kong who push back in ways the communist party is unprepared for. It could have destabilising effects in the region which may or may not be good for the party

    Its really up in the air. If Hong Kong fights openly against violent mainland oppression it could end up becoming a powerful symbol for resistance in the region, and even internally. The ripple effects are just totally unknown at this stage

    not to mention if the mainland squeezes too hard they might choke the hk economy more than any protests will. And that could be dangerous to the mainland, as it could put stress on their own hidden problems. Its really hard to tell what could happen, which may be why the party might not go in and crush it, because that could lead to less control not more

    I think we shouldn't underestimate how much the Chinese government is capable of stamping on HK and going for full propaganda spam at them and trying to just wait it out. China is powerful enough no one is gonna actually stop them so they can probably keep this going assuming the people that even find out about what's going on in the rest of China care enough to agitate about the issue.

    One of the things we have learned is how well the CCP can insulate the mainland population from information. The HK protest have barely broken into the mainland bubble and when it does it is using the party's line more often than not.

    So there is minimal pressure from the main population if any at all to allow to give into anything.

    Pretty much everyone on the mainland who my wife grew up with on her WeChat account basically thinks the HKers are being ungrateful and just want independence.

    MazzyxRchanen
  • SynthesisSynthesis Honda Today! Registered User regular
    Smurph wrote: »
    So Taiwan's existance is tolerated by China so long as it pretends to still be the Republic of China, because everybody knows it's not the 'real' China, but if it were to give up that status and just declare itself the Republic of Taiwan there would be big trouble? Because that's a step towards permanent independence and possibly diplomatic recognition, where as the People's Republic would let the ROC continue to exist and hope to win them over with economics and general good relations?

    That's how rump states work sometimes. One thing the Republic of China (in Nanjing) had in common with the People's Republic of China (in Beijing) is that, 50 years aside of Japanese rule aside, they're not really more inclined to let Taiwan leave the Chinese Republic than the United States is inclined to let its unincorporated territories leave. In effect, basically whole world recognizes that the PRC (and its neighbors to lesser extent) replaced the ROC as the Chinese Republic as the outcome of that civil war. The fact that a tiny fragment of the ROC still survives, in a territory that its own residents claim "Is not part of China," doesn't change that.
    Jephery wrote: »
    Taiwan's best hope is to maintain the status quo until the PRC collapses somehow. That is not something that will happen in the near term, more like in the 2050s-2100s when climate change is putting stress on the entire world. If Taiwan ends up more stable than the mainland, and the PRC falls into civil war (basically hoping that regional governments start looking out for themselves in a time of resource scarcity), it could be a player in next war to reunite China.

    Thats assuming a sort of hell world though, and that Taiwan can maintain stability through climate change while the mainland can't.

    Aside from being a potentially horrifying scenario for a billion people, comparable to decades-long civil war that created the PRC in the first place, I don't think that's actually true. Taiwan's "best hope" is, actually, simply a change in the practical if not formal Taiwan policy in the Chinese leadership. Especially since Beijing may not, in fact, have to answer to the shift, that really wouldn't require a civil war. I feels like a lot, or maybe all, Americans forgot four years ago, relations across the strait reached their most amicable since the Ming Dynasty. Or at least, since a time where the ROC accepted Japanese imperial rule over Taiwan as a necessary price for peace, before the Japanese carved out their chunk for Manchuria. Peaceful coexist with the possibility of reunification, at an unstated time, might be agreed upon between governments--a million Taiwanese didn't just end up living in China because they forgot to ask for directions in Kinmen Island. Likewise, China had actual constraints from reality--it's relationship with India, the United States, the Korean Peninsula, even Hong Kong, etc.--that demanded its attention.

    But the concessions offered by the Ma government--particularly economic, rather than legal and political, since Ma still took a hard line on extradition policy, diplomacy, and formal ideology--were one of the things that pummeled the KMT in the 2016 elections. Beijing decided it would only engage in negotiations with preconditions, a very American tactic, knowing full well the DPP would not concede. Three years leader, and Tsai is, by, the weakest incumbent facing an election. She's probably the only incumbent to face a primary challenger, and only beat William Lai by 36 to 27 in polling. That's really bad. Until very recently, her handling of Cross-Strait relations was so bad she actively stopped talking about it in favor of a military build-up. But things have turned around....not enough to guarantee her reelection though.

    Xi is not going live forever, and he's changed his mind before. Likewise, the DPP will count its blessings if they win in 2020, the notion of them keeping the presidency in 2024 is laughable. Taipei, and Beijing, are waiting for the other side to change. I was far more genuinely afraid of military actions during the worse of the Chen years, or the Third Strait Crisis. But to be perfectly honest, Americans really don't remember just how bad the situation was more than ten years ago--they had other things on their mind, so it's not really their fault.

    That, and I think a total collapse of the PRC would be a disaster for Taiwan actually comparable to the war, when Allied bombers leveled every city in the island. So it's not surprising people don't see that as "their best hope."

    Orca wrote: »
    Synthesis wrote:
    Isn't "Your sarcasm makes me wet," the highest compliment an Abh can pay a human?

    Only if said Abh is a member of the nobility.
  • JepheryJephery Registered User regular
    I obviously have a pessimistic bias in my world view due to assuming billions of deaths due to uncontrolled climate change as the default future.

    }
    "Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
  • RchanenRchanen Registered User regular
    Jephery wrote: »
    I obviously have a pessimistic bias in my world view due to assuming billions of deaths due to uncontrolled climate change as the default future.

    Ehhh, at the rate things are going you are probably right.

    To throw a few more things onto the scale, China has a massive age overhang, a gender disparity problem, and the consequences of poor environmental controls in the rush to industrialize and catch up with the West. They are trying to go green faster than the west (which is good), but man did they do some fucking damage to their environment.

    So the PRC having a rough couple of decades in the next 30-40 years is probably right.

    The US meanwhile, is still in ostrich mode and is probably gonna get fucked hard.

    spool32 wrote:
    he pops this cobalt blue tetrahedron like he's thought of something. I'm like son, you know that's just a reskinned fireball, right?
    JepherySmrtnik
  • RaijuRaiju Registered User regular
    Artereis wrote: »
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    shryke wrote: »
    Prohass wrote: »
    yeah i just dont see hong kong ever settling into the fold of Beijings control. It has lived and breathed democracy, and with a young population and growing economic problems, its only going to get more unruly. While we cant really do anything directly to stop it, I think if China cracks down violently in Hong Kong the results could be unpredictable in a way the party is very unfamiliar with. Despite the feeling that the world can do nothing, it might be the people of hong kong who push back in ways the communist party is unprepared for. It could have destabilising effects in the region which may or may not be good for the party

    Its really up in the air. If Hong Kong fights openly against violent mainland oppression it could end up becoming a powerful symbol for resistance in the region, and even internally. The ripple effects are just totally unknown at this stage

    not to mention if the mainland squeezes too hard they might choke the hk economy more than any protests will. And that could be dangerous to the mainland, as it could put stress on their own hidden problems. Its really hard to tell what could happen, which may be why the party might not go in and crush it, because that could lead to less control not more

    I think we shouldn't underestimate how much the Chinese government is capable of stamping on HK and going for full propaganda spam at them and trying to just wait it out. China is powerful enough no one is gonna actually stop them so they can probably keep this going assuming the people that even find out about what's going on in the rest of China care enough to agitate about the issue.

    One of the things we have learned is how well the CCP can insulate the mainland population from information. The HK protest have barely broken into the mainland bubble and when it does it is using the party's line more often than not.

    So there is minimal pressure from the main population if any at all to allow to give into anything.

    Pretty much everyone on the mainland who my wife grew up with on her WeChat account basically thinks the HKers are being ungrateful and just want independence.

    My family is from Hong Kong and the fact that Beijing intends to completely supplant the HK cultural identity with the mainland's can't be understated. Things like where HK schools are slowly but surely phasing out teaching Cantonese as part of their curriculum in favor of Mandarin. It's pretty messed up.

    shryke
  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    edited August 14
    So reading through my Foreign Policy morning brief they had a good bit on what was, and still is happening, at the HK airport. The protest were broken and they let a few hundred remain. All flights incoming from the mainland are having their phones airdropped with pictures and stories about Tienanmen Square, the HK protest, and other CCP issues. The HK folks are trying to break through the wall of propaganda the best they can into the mainland for folks visiting HK. I doubt its working though.

    Edit:

    Wanted to add the story and some select quotes. Just got stuck in a meeting this morning.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/14/hong-kong-airport-reopens-after-police-raid-and-court-order/

    This sounds very bad.
    Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam has said the protesters have turned down a “path of no return.” The Chinese government had harsher words; Xu Luying, spokeswoman for the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office expressed “extreme anger” and described the protests as “nearly acts of terrorism.” Many observers have been left wondering if Lam is even still in control of the city’s government as more and more decisions seem to be coming from the mainland and local loyalists. Legal experts say the city government could be poised to use antiterrorism laws to try to put down the protests.

    I wish them luck fighting the CCP disinformation.
    It is certain that the Chinese Communist Party is already engaged in an information war with the protesters. While protesters barrage the iPhones of arriving mainlanders with information about the protesters’ grievances and and images of the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown sent via Apple’s AirDrop, Beijing projects an image of a small and violent group with little public support, but significant foreign influence, that threatens mainland China. It’s likely that China’s citizens—and the party itself—believe the government’s propaganda, Thomas Kellogg argues in FP.

    Mazzyx on
    03x29di.png
  • RaijuRaiju Registered User regular
    Speaking of the CCP disinformation campaign:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/19/tech/china-social-media-hong-kong-twitter/index.html

    Aside from Twitter's official stance of "alt right good, China bad", this pretty much confirms that, yup, the CCP is indeed trying to suppress and undermine the Hong Kong protests over social media, to the surprise of no one.

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